The Duran Podcast - AfD Wins Big, CDU Collapse, Merz is Finished

Episode Date: September 7, 2026

AfD Wins Big, CDU Collapse, Merz is Finished

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the election results in Germany in Saxony, Anhalt, with the big winner being the AFT, a huge victory for the IFTA. What are your thoughts on all of this? Absolutely, a huge victory for the IFTA. I mean, they outpoles, even, you know, the most optimistic estimates from opinion polls. I mean, most estimates put them at most at 43% of the vote. They got almost 44%. And they did so on a record turnout.

Over 77% of people voted in this election. So this is, this is in regional terms in a land election. It's a tidal wave. Now, the one thing I would say, and this is, I think, an important thing too, reiterate, I mean, Saxony Anhalt is in no sense a German economic powerhouse. It's relatively low population, around 2 million people. It's not got enormous industries. It's not economically central in its importance to Germany. I mean, we're not like talking about Island Falls or North Rhinevestvalier or, you know, the Berlin complex further north, or something of that kind.

But nonetheless, this is a sweeping win by the IFTA. And it isn't just a huge win by the IFTA. It is a total collapse of Chancellor Mouths's CDU. I mean, they've gone from, I think, about 36% of the vote. in the last election in 2021 to just over 17% of the vote. Their vote has more than halved, and it is a massive defeat for them. Bear in mind that in this area of Eastern Germany, the former GDR, the former East Germany, in the southern areas of Eastern Germany, the CDU was always particularly strong.

It was the party of reunification, the party of Helmut Kohl, which brought the two parts of Germany together. Northern Eastern Germany, Berlin and the coast have tended to tilt much more to the left. But the southern regions of Eastern Germany, Saxony, were always conservative. and more right wing, natural territory, in other words, for the CDU. And they have completely crashed. Now, it is impossible to see this as anything other than a massive repudiation of Mertz and of his government in Berlin. I mean, that is the first thing to say.

It is a massive repudiation of the entire German political system. And I get to say something else. It is also the moment when the so-called firewall in Germany, the principle that you never enter into coalition with the IFDA is going to be tested to destruction. Because in my opinion, the IFDA has now been delivered what for them is the perfect result. because they've fallen just short of winning enough votes to form a majority government. And this needs to be explained because 44% ought, in most situations, in this particular state, there have been enough to give them a majority. But enough of the smaller parties, the delinker,

the Left Party, which by the way, in East Germany, it's important to remember, is the legacy party of the former East German Communist Party, the ruling party in Eastern Germany, the Linker, the Greens and the BSW, Sarah Wagnernecht's party. They all did well enough to get into the local parliament. and because of all of that, because of the seat allocation that they've received, that is just sufficient to prevent the IFDF for being a majority government. They're three seats short of a majority. But of course, they've got much more than twice as many votes as the next biggest party, which is the CDU. So we now have a bizarre situation where if you apply the firewall, what is far and away the most popular party in Saxony, Anhalt, which is the IFD, would be prevented from forming a government.

You would have a broken, discredited and deeply unpopular CDU forming a government with parties that you could argue either are far less. all which have a history of being far left and which in Eastern Germany are identified with the former ruling Communist Party of Eastern Germany in the case of Delinker. So this is, I mean, this would be an extraordinary coalition. And it's difficult to see how in Saxony, Unhull, and across the rest of Eastern Germany, and across much of the rest of Germany as well. It would not be seen as a grotesque stitch up by the establishment to keep the most popular, the strongest party, the only party that is resonating with the German electorate out of power. I mean, it would be an inversion of democracy to do this. So that, I think, in a strange kind of way, actually works. to the IFDAIR's advantage, if they'd won a majority and they'd seamlessly move forward and

formed a government, the IFDA has never been tested in government before anywhere in Germany. It's not impossible that such an IFDA government could run into all kinds of problems if it tried to pursue the sometimes fairly radical program that on certain issues, the IFCRA, FDair has. That might be controversial and might lead up to a gang up against it in Berlin from the government there and a denial of funds. So denying it the opportunity to form a majority government makes it look even more like the coming force because, as I said, it's won this election on the tidal wave, but it also makes it look still more as the underdog, the party that he's fighting for the ordinary people of Germany against a corrupt and discredited establishment

that is trying to keep it down. So, as I said, this is almost the optimal result, in my opinion, for the IFTA. By the way, it is far from certain, given that they've only fallen three seeds. short of a majority that they would not be able to form a government. But we will see how it all works out. If they do form a government, it will be that the firewall has collapsed and that the establishment has fractured. So it'll be an interesting thing to see how it plays out. Yeah, if they form a government, the firewall is over.

and Mertz and the CDU and the SPD look absolutely stupid. Yeah. All of the parties that formed this behind the curtain secret agreement to never go into coalition with the A-FDA would look absolutely weak and stupid. If they're denied ruling, if they're denied to form a government, then it looks like they've gotten ripped off. Yeah, exactly. And they get even more support from the people.

Exactly. Because it looks like the corrupt establishment elite are ignoring the will of the people. Yeah, which is true. Which is true, by the way. Which is true. That's what I'm saying. This is a great position for IFTA to be in. Absolutely.

Absolutely. I mean, electorally, politically speaking, one can't see, one can't imagine a better one. and the leader of the IFTA in Saxon-Halt, Ulrich, Siegfried, and I suspect Alice Vidal, understand that perfectly well, and you can see that from the way that they're responding to this result. We will see how it plays out. I mean, the BSW has indicated that he might tolerate an IFD government, but that would not be an entirely comfortable situation for the IFD. So they're unlikely to want to cut any deals with the BSW.

What is not impossible is that there might be a drift of support from the local regional CDU that some people who are members of the CDU parliamentary group might decide to move over to the IFDA. But that might also be problematic. I mean, if they did that, I mean, they would be absolutely. slated within the CDU, the CDU would never forgive them for doing that. So that might deter them. But against that, they might also say to themselves, if we don't do this, then we're going to be toast because come the next election, which, you know, the situation in

Sax and Annhalt now becomes particularly unstable and people in the state play the CDU. You can see how it might be completely wiped out. I mean, its support has just imploded. So where does this leave Germany? Because obviously, the Saxon-Halt, and there is also the wider political situation in Germany. So to repeat, this is not a typical German state. It's in Eastern Germany. It's rural. It's conservative. The electorate there is elderly. It is not. It is an economic or industrial powerhouse. But what we see is that across Germany, the IFDA has been gaining steadily in support. There is, as we've discussed in several programs now, growing opposition, hostility to maths, specifically, particularly to maths. And what?

Whilst we were in the United States in Chattanooga, we did a program in which we discussed how within the CDU there is now a faction starting to form, which is increasingly saying that maths is part of the problem and the time has come for maths to go. And I think that the forces within the CDU who think this are going to be strengthened now. and I understand that something like a fifth of Germans in polling no longer expect maths to be Chancellor beyond the end of the year. So there is a high percentage in Germany, just to repeat again, a point we've made before in Germany. It is unusual for a Chancellor to be pushed out before a parliamentary term ends.

I mean, we saw with Olauels, a completely unsuccessful Chancellor, that he was able to limp on until there was the election, which he eventually lost. But this time, opposition to maths is so strong. Contempt and dislike of maths is so great. Unpopularity towards maths within his own party, the CDU, where he's seen as Aaron. arrogant and aloof and out of touch is also so strong. I think there is now a very high chance that we could be seen the end of maths

within the next few weeks. He is arrogant, aloof, and out of touch, and delusional. And no one likes him. No one likes him, yeah. So the CDU needs to get rid of him? Exactly. Like ASAP. That would be the smart thing for the CDU to do.

Yes. Is to completely get rid of Mertz. Well, that's entirely right. Because, of course, the longer this continues, the more broken the system becomes, exactly. I mean, the situation in Germany is not going to get better. I mean, anybody who takes over from Mance is going to have a lot of work to do to turn things around. And it's going to have to conduct major shifts in German economic and foreign policy, which we've touched on, which are going to be controversial to say.

the least. But however difficult that is, you have to set that against the absolute guarantee that whilst maths remains chancellor and continues to stick to the current policies, which by the way, he will, the further down the CDU goes. I mean, we had a situation where in the last Bundestag election, the CDU got 28% of the vote. And the IFDAQ got around 20% of the vote. Now it's reversed. The CDU is down to 21% of the vote, which is probably not its lowest. I mean, it could fall below 20%.

I think after this result very, very easily, whilst it is the IFDA, which is now polling at 28%, and which could conceivably, and very likely, in my opinion, you go above 30. So there isn't a huge amount of time. What else can the CDU do to stop the bleeding? I mean, they don't want to engage in any type of diplomacy with Russia. I think that's obvious.

They despise Russia, they hate Russia, and no doubt that they're very eager to continue the money flow into the military companies. And maybe even some members of the CDU may even be fantasizing about a conflict with Russia in 2030. But I think the priority for them is to continue the money

going into the military establishment. I think that's their number one priority. What outside of that, what could they do to stop the bleeding? Could they at least say a new leader could come out and say, we'll deal with immigration and we'll stop sending money to Ukraine at least.

We still hate Russia. We still despise Russia. We still may go to war with Russia in 2030. We'll still continue to pour money into NATO and into our military companies, Ryan Metal and all these companies. We'll still do that. But we'll stop sending money to Zelad Skiy. Would that make any difference?

Or is this just game over for this evening? I don't think it is because it doesn't address the cool problem. I mean, obviously, shoveling money to Zelensky is an incredibly bad idea, and it is worsening in almost every respect, Germany's long-term financial health and economic future. I mean, that is indisputably true. And tightening up on immigration is, well, they are, to a great extent, trying to do that already, though they will never win against the IF debt on this. And the fact remains that for many Germans, for most Germans probably, the CDU now is the party that embraced massive immigration. People are never going to forget how Angela Merkel in 2015 basically invited people from Syria and the Middle East. She started the whole thing.

She started the whole thing. She did it on purpose. She did it on purpose, exactly. You know, it's very, very difficult to simply go back in time and say this is all a huge mistake, blame it all on Bert Merkel, and pretend that the CDU itself has completely, you know, turned over a new leaf. Also, I mean, I suspect that would be controversial within some parts of the German establishment anyway. And, of course, they're not going to weaken the link to Brussels and to the EU and any of that kind of thing. So we would still not be receiving cheap energy from Russia. We would still be committed to some kind of arms buildup within Germany itself.

There would still be, you know, debt piling up. It would be maths's policies slightly diluted, but without maths. but I suspect that if we're talking about the CDU, that is all we're going to get. We are going to see what's going to happen. And this is my own prediction, is we're going to get another figure who is a bit more personable,

a bit more amiable, who is less arrogant, less aloof, more of a skilled politician taking over the CDU. and the CDU will see a bump up in support for a few months, but then it will become increasingly clear that this person is incapable of turning things round or of changing them. And we will see CDU support again begin to fall and fall even faster

because it will be seen in Germany that the CDU actually doesn't have any real answers. to the problems of Germany, which, by the way, is also true. Now, if this is a little like what has happened to the British Labour Party, where they've got rid of Stama, who now has left Parliament, by the way, and is now actively pursuing election as Secretary General of NATO, I mean, that's a huge idea. But if this, what I've just outlined looks like what's happened in Britain with the arrival of Andy Burnham.

It is because it is exactly the same. I mean, you remove the deeply unpopular, arrogant, aloof, complacent figure that was there. You bring somebody in who seems to have better political skills, a greater ability to engage with the public. You change nothing. And all that happens is that, you know, People see this. And for a time, they say, well, this is an attractive new man. And then they start

to lose interest. And they start drifting back in Germany's case to the IFDA, in Britain's case, to reform. And everything remains basically as it was. Because there are other more extreme solutions since we're talking about Germany, the SPD, which is now, I think, in an existential crisis. I mean, put aside the result in Saucson-Anhalt, where it's never been a particularly strong force, but in its former regions in Germany, which have been its major heartland, I mean, it is from everything I'm hearing, it is dying. Their policy now basically seems to be increasingly to ban the IFDA. That is the only thing that they really have going for them.

The problem with that is that with every IFDAIR win, with every expression of support that the IFDA gets across Germany, banning the IFDA becomes increasingly difficult and increasingly problematic. And of course, I'm not saying that we're completely out of the position where that can happen. But we are approaching it and smearing the IFDA. Well, we've seen in Saxon-Anhalt that that doesn't work. My own view is that the timing of the Leipzig, own incident was partly intended to damage the IFDA in this election. We've had all of the talk

about, you know, the traitor states, and we can't share intelligence with the IFDA because they are controlled by Moscow and they will pass on intelligence to Moscow if they form a government in Saxon, HALP. Well, exactly as we predicted, that has had the opposite effect. to what people in Berlin might have hoped for. It's actually increased support for the IFD. So, I mean, I think banning, smearing the IFDA, I mean, it clearly doesn't work anymore. And I think that those radical policies are not really going to be,

are not really the policies that, if you want to defeat the IFDA are going to work. So change, radical political change by the CD. all but impossible. Policies of banning the IFDN, those kind of things, they don't really look like they would work either. So most likely what we're going to see for the next couple of years in Germany is the present political establishment limping along, coming up with no solutions to problems, rotating leaders,

in other words, getting rid of METS, bringing someone else in, but changing nothing of substance and keeping their fingers crossed and hoping that there's some great moment, some great event is going to happen, that there'll be a political crisis in Moscow or something of that kind, hoping against hope that things will turn round, which I don't think they're going to do. Right. The UK method, just bring in one prime minister after another after another, so we'll just have rotating chancellors. Exactly. It's not working out for labor. People saw through Burnham and then the whole stomer to Burnham thing. Yes.

They saw right through it immediately. Yes. Yeah, I mean, they weren't fooling anybody by bringing in Burnham by appointing Burnham. So does, and then the whole Russia thing, that's all they've got when it comes to propaganda. Yeah. All they've got is Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia. That's all they run with anymore. Come up with something new.

Anyway, does, does, vital, is vital an Orban or a Maloney? Let's go back to this question. Is she more like Orban? Is she going to stand firm on her policies, even if the globalists in Europe put a lot of pressure on her? Or is she going to fold like Maloney folded and become a good, a good, abiding, law-abiding globalist like Maloney? This is an excellent question, and I should say that, I mean, we regularly get people

who run to us from Germany. You say, you know, you're putting too much into the IFDA. It's a good question. It's a very good question. It's a very, very good question. I mean, you know, the IFDA isn't as radical as it appears. If you compare its program without the CDU, there isn't, there aren't that many differences at the end of the day.

It's also a neoliberal party. It supports much of the neoliberal consensus. And these are valid points entirely. And they're politicians. And they're politicians, exactly. Yeah. So they're meant to lie. They're meant to deceive.

Yeah. Exactly. So, I mean, you know, it is all of this. All I will say about this is this. I mean, there are certain things that the IFDA are saying, which do distinguish them from other parties. Firstly, I mean, they're taking a much more radical stance on immigration than any of the other parties can do. And I think that already distinguishes them.

Whether that is enough in itself to turn things around in Germany is another matter. But on immigration, they are taking a harder line. The other thing is this, they are taking a different line on Russia. They want to end this conflict with Russia. they want to get Russian gas moving west to Germany again. They're saying they would undertake some kind of rapprochement with Russia. And this is not easy. That has not been an easy position for them to take over the last few years,

but they've stuck with it. And it is a distinctive policy. And I think it is now starting to pay electoral dividends. I think more and more people in Germany are starting to understand what a disastrous thing cutting off all that gas that was flowing from Russia to Germany actually was. So I think that maybe they're not full on or bum, but I think they will be different from Maloney. I think also, and this is my sense from being in Germany, being in Germany recently, that the anti-Russian policies, the war policies associated with METs, are so unpopular with the German people

that an IFDA government that reversed them would be cutting with the political grain. In other words, it would be popular, it would be electorally successful. And even if they're more conservative, I mean, I'm going to say conservative, They're more associated with, you know, the liberal, liberal center than, you know, on other things. That would nonetheless be something which already would make a difference. And I think a German government could probably, alone in Europe, pull off. And it would make a difference. Lastly, I mean, we shouldn't overlook the fact that Alice Vidal and the IFTA are now talking about quitting the euro.

whether they would or not is another question, but at least they're talking about doing it. And who else in Germany is? Just so. They should. Anyway, they should, yeah. We will leave it there. The durand.com. We are also on substack and go to Durand shop.

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