The Duran Podcast - Armenia pushed towards disaster scenario

Episode Date: September 19, 2023

Armenia pushed towards disaster scenario The Duran: Episode 1698

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. With each passing day, it looks like something is going to happen. That's going to be very bad for Armenia, and Azerbaijan is going to capitalize on what appears to be a very, I want to say, reckless, but bizarre, Paschignan policy with Nakorno-Karabakh. I mean, I mean, I understand kind of what he's, I mean, I think everyone knows what he's trying to do so that he can offload Nako Rokadak and clear the way for entrance into NATO and the European Union, specifically, more importantly, the European Union for him and the elite political class in Armenia. but it's incredible to think that he's willing to risk so much to enter into these institutions. And he is starting to annoy a lot of people, mainly Russian President Putin, because he's trying to pin the blame on the collapse of Nagorno-Katabakh. And the deteriorating relations with Azerbaijan is trying to blame it on Russia.

And it looks like Putin's not having any of that. No, absolutely. was furious actually. And you know, it's, he gave an interview, Putin gave an interview when he was in the Far East and you could see him almost talking through clenched teeth. He didn't want to savage Pashinian openly. But I mean, he made it absolutely clear that Pashinian is making decisions now that he's not, that he's not telling Putin about in advance and about which Putin himself is not being consulted. And of course, the key decision. was that Bershenian out of the blue announced that he accepted sovereignty,

Azerbaijan's sovereignty, over Nagorno-Karabakh. And Putin said, you know, this, you know, Russia has never disputed Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. But the way in which Bershinian did that undermined Armenia's negotiating position, and it also... undermined Russian mediation efforts because whenever the Armenians now do something in Nagorno-Karabakh, like hold elections there. And whenever the Russians then try to tell the Azerbaijanias, well, you know, hold back,

this is something that's going on in Nagorno-Karabakh, you know, accepted, it's, you know, not going to change anything dramatic. But Putin said, whenever they say that, the Azerbaijanians come back and say to him, well, look, we of course we can object to it. This is our sovereign territory. Armenia itself acknowledges this. So if Armenia acknowledges our sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh, of course we have a right to object to whatever goes on there,

about which we're no longer being consulted. So Putin made that point. And of course that's one thing, but of course it's led to lots of other things because we've had elections in Nagorno-Karabakh, which the Azerbaijanians are taking strong exception to. But of course, Prussian has taken another step. There's a big, very consequential step,

which is that he's held joint military exercise. on Armenian territory with the United States. And the Russians are not happy with that, and they pointed out that Armenia is involved in the collective security treaty organization still, and that this isn't consistent holding military exercises with the United States isn't, properly speaking, compatible with membership of the collective security treaty organization.

Now, the Russians may be stretching the envelope there, but you can see what they mean. They may be annoyed about this. And they say, you know, the collective security treaty organization is in conflict at the moment with the United States and you hold exercises without consulting us or talking with us about this.

So exercises between the Americans and the Armenians have not pleased the Russians, obviously. They alarmed Iran, which is now warned Armenia against doing this because of course Iran does not want

to see an American presence in the South Caucasus and Iran has been an important ally of Armenia up to this point and of course it's also

alarmed the Azerbaijan because they're saying to themselves well if the Armenians are now entering NATO NATO and the American camp well we need to act fast before that happens because we don't want to get ourselves into a situation where we might also find ourselves in conflict with the United States

so they're moving troops now towards Nagorno-Karabakh they're already angry about the elections they will say they are they're moving troops towards Nagorno-Karabakh they're moving troops towards Armenia and of course they're being especially cheeky because they're putting the Zed symbol on it, which is of course the one that they've copied from the Russians, from the Russian troops who went into Ukraine. They're basically signalling to the Russians. Look, we're doing in Nagorno-Karabakh,

only the same thing that you did in Ukraine, which, of course, the Russians will not agree with, but as Putin said, to a great extent, this has been taken out of their hands. And of course, Erdogan, who probably doesn't want to see an American presence in the Southern Caucasus either, but who always looks for advantage has now suggested a full party meeting Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. He wants to join summit meeting to, as he says, resolve the situation. The Russians have resisted all of those sort of proposals from Erdogan up to this point,

because they don't want to see Turkish influence in the South Caucasus increase either. But this time with the Armenians going, as the Russians would say, you know, off-peased, they might do. They might feel that they have little choice but to agree to that. In which case, Voshenian will be faced with a meeting in which the Russians, the Azebojean, and the Turks are all combining against him. Or, you know, he might choose not to go, in which case we will have a crisis in which Armenia is isolated openly in its own region. Yeah, but are these moves by Paschignan, are they meant to create the dynamic where

he doesn't get a military conflict? he avoids a military conflict, a rerun of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He gets close to it, but he avoids it. And what he gets instead is a diplomatic resolution where Turkey and Azerbaijan, they just come right out and say, okay, well, Armenia, you're out, not going to go to back, Russia, you're out. This is our sovereign territory. and that's how it's going to be resolved.

They impose their own will on the situation. And in that way, Pasjaniyan can say we've avoided a war, we avoided a conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh is now in the hands of Azerbaijan. Russia is out of the region. Come on in, European Union and NATO. I mean, I'm just trying to understand the, the thinking that he's taking here with these really strange, reckless decisions. Right.

And that's the only one that I can come up with. I mean, I can't imagine that he wants a conflict. Maybe he does, but I can't imagine that anyone would want another conflict. But maybe he's taking Armenia to that point so that he can have Turkey and Azerbaijan impose their diplomatic will on the situation. and therefore his hands are clean, so to speak. He can blame it on Russia. He can say this is just the reality of what's been happening. And by the way, I've already made moves and the pivot towards the West. Well, this is exactly what many people in Moscow think. That what

Praschenian is doing is that he's working to offload Nagorno-Karabakh. He wants to offload it, dump it, and I'm sorry to use that word, but that's what the Russians think, dump it back into Azerbaijan, allow the Azerbaijanians to overrun it, blame the Russians for what would be for Armenia a disaster, a defeat in a conflict that began in the 1980s when the Soviet Union was still in existence, blame the Russians, and then say to the Armenian people, look, we can't lie on the Russians anymore. So let's join NATO and the EU instead. And that is what many people in Moscow think that he's trying to do. Now, that is indeed what he's trying to do. It is, as you absolutely right, you say, an incredibly dangerous game. All that it will achieve is the isolation of

Armenia in the region. Now, Georgia, under Sarkashvili, played a very similar game, except of course that in Georgia's case, Sarkashvili acted as the great champion of Georgia who was going to regain control of all of these territories for Georgia. He ended up in a war with the Russians. He was defeated. He had to flee abroad after he was himself defeated domestically in an election. He went on his travels.

He ended up in Ukraine. He eventually returned to Georgia. and he's now in prison. So, and in the meantime, Georgia has been reduced in size. It's lost South Ossetia, is lost Abkhazia, almost certainly forever. And Georgia is now trying gradually, incrementally, frozen government there, to try and reopen connections to Russia. Because, you know, they understand that that's their long-term interest.

it seems to me that Pashinian, the best way things could turn out is that he could end up taking Armenia in the same direction, down the same sort of rabbit hole. Trying to get Armenia into NATO and into the EU simply isolates Armenia in its region, antagonizes the Russians who have been, as they were with Georgia, you know, the long. longstanding country that looked after these two small countries, Georgia and Armenia. And again, it's happened in 2008. The Americans weren't able, in the end, to deliver. They weren't able to provide protection to Georgia when it got itself into serious trouble. The same could happen with Armenia. Yeah, but why is, why do you think,

by Shiaanis, do it? I mean, we understand, I think everyone on, understand what the Russians think is going on. But, you know, do you think this is Paschignan's play? Is this really what he's doing? Because it doesn't sound like a very smart move. I mean, maybe he thinks it's smart. Well, what I've heard is...

It doesn't sound too smart. Well, it doesn't sound smart at all. In fact, I've heard a lot of people criticize Pashinian's whole approach to Pashinian's whole approach. And a lot of people are saying that he's not particularly. particularly smart. He's a bit like Sarkashvili again, who imagined himself to be this tremendous, you know, virtuosic, diplomatic, master. And of course, it all turned out, it all turned to dust. And that Poshinian might be the same. Others say that this is actually, he's playing a more

subtle game and that, in fact, he doesn't really expect to get Armenia into, you know, the NATO and into the EU. but that he is trying to use such leverage as he has over the Russians in order to win them back. I have to say that looks altogether too subtle to me. And I think, in fact, he's simply antagonising the Russians. But don't assume that he's particularly clever. I don't know very much about him, but I don't think he's played his hand with any particular skill. And frankly, he looks out of his depth in this. situation. That's how it looks to me.

Okay, what do you think happens next just to wrap with the video? Well, I'm very, very concerned and I'm very much afraid that there will be a war and that Azerbaijan will attack Nagorno-Karabakh again and will this time overrun it. Armenia has recognized that Nagorno-Karabakh is sovereign, Azerbaijanian territory, so that it will not come to Nagorno-Karabakh's rescue. And yes, Parasinian will try to blame the Russians for that particular debacle. But I can't help but think that this will be a massive psychological blow to the Armenian people, for whom, by the way, I have great personal fondness.

I will announce that personal interest in this. It will be a massive psychological blow. It will make them feel even more vulnerable in their region. It will make them feel even more diminished. and insecure and whereas before Armenia was strong in its alliances

in its alliance first of foremost with the Russians now it will find itself in a weak position and what it will do to Armenia's long-term position I well I don't I don't want to think perhaps

eventually there will be a way back but it will be from a much weaker position the Nalmenia enjoyed before Pashinian came to power. Yeah, I mean, I just have another question, a final question, because this story is so fascinating and so bizarre, trying to get an understanding as to what Pashinian is doing. The minute he's recognized Nacornokarabakh as he's recognized Nacornokarabakh as Azerbaijan territory, I mean, it's game over.

Yes. I mean, isn't that how this works? I mean, you know, you're saying that there's going to be a war and Azerbaijan's going to enter this territory, but he's recognized it as such. Well, that's exactly. I mean, he's green lighting. I mean, he's basically telling Azerbaijan, you know, come in and isn't the effect where it's going to demoralize the people of Armenia and it's going to lead them to feel vulnerable and isolated? It isn't that the perfect time to then tell the people of Armenia don't feel alone, and isolated and demoralized?

Russia has left us, but here comes Ursula and Biden, and they're going to save us. Well, that's exactly. I mean, I've seen it play out in Greece and Syria. This is the way the EU always, they want to make your country feel very weak, very vulnerable, very alone. And then they come in and they provide this, this protest. this umbrella of goodness and EU values. I mean, it's the same trick they play over and over again. It just seems like that's where we're heading towards.

Well, that's exactly what... A sinister move. Well, that's exactly where we're heading. And again, as I said, if you read Putin's comments, that's exactly his observation. He said, you know, it's not as if it's his issue about, you know, Azerbaijan having sovereignty over... over Nagorno-Karabakh, but Bashinian just recognizing that Azerbaijan had sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh,

it has undermined completely Armenia's entire position in this conflict. Now, if it ends in a debacle, which it's difficult to see how it cannot do now, then of course it stems from these strange decisions that Paschinien has been taking. But of course, exactly, as you said, he's going to turn around and say, well, you know, the Russians are betrayed us. Let's go to the Americans. Let's go to the EU. Let's go to Ursula and all of these people. People who have failed in Ukraine. People who failed in Georgia before. But we turn to them in Armenia. And we'll see what the result is. Yeah. Just to wrap up the video, as you were talking, I just, I have such a hard problem believing that Pachignan has made such a statement. I really have a hard time believing it. And so I put it into the search engines.

And yeah, it's very hard to believe Armenia will accept Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. According to Russia, I mean, I've got like five different interviews and articles about this. It's so, it's so bizarre that Bashinyan is doing this. It's hard to wrap your head around this, this move that he's making. I mean, the other thing that he's. is the one thing I have to say, which we haven't discussed, is what people in Armenia itself think about this, because I would have thought that there would be a lot of people in Armenia who must be very angry with what Pashinyan has done. And that's the other thing. I mean,

he might bring, he might, as he says, as he probably thinks to himself, offload, Nagorno-Karabakh, in this kind of way. he might try to bring Armenia into NATO and EU, by no means guaranteed, by the way, that he will be successful in that. After all, Sikashvili never managed it. Ukraine has not managed it. Why would Armenia necessarily?

But, you know, I can't help but think that in time, people in Armenia will look back upon what he has done and question whether he has acted properly by the Armenian people. That's one thing. But beyond doing that, I wonder whether there aren't a lot of people in Armenia who are already very angry with what he's been up to and what the long-term stability of his government now actually is. Incredible stuff.

All right. We'll end it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, odyssey, bitchchut, telegram, and Rakfin, as well as X. And go to the Duran shop, 10% off. Use the code. Good day. Take care.

Thank you.