The Duran Podcast - ATACMS into Russia. Kursk cauldron KNOCKOUT to Ukraine

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

ATACMS into Russia. Kursk cauldron KNOCKOUT to Ukraine

All right, Alexander, let's talk about another attackums strike in Russia, in the Rostov region, the southern region of Russia, six attackums, the Russian Ministry of Defense. They already issued a statement very quickly. They issued a statement on this latest attackums strike into Russia, and they said two of the attackums were shot down. The other four were taken down with electronic capabilities. capabilities. And there were no deaths. A couple of Russian soldiers were injured. Some equipment was also damaged. But this is the third attackum's strike and the fourth overall, if you include the

storm shadows. It's been into pre-2014 Russia. And I believe it's been what Alexander after two weeks, three weeks since the last attack attack him's strike. Exactly. Which is the... Which takes me to what the Ministry of Defense said, which is that this will not go unanswered. And the collective West mainstream media, Alexander, they are saying that Russia is going to launch an Ereznik strike.

They believe Russia is going to launch an Ereznik strike into Ukraine. So they believe it's going to be, the retaliation will be confined to Ukraine, but they are saying that Norejointed. Russianic missile is coming to Ukraine. What are your thoughts on what happened? It's very interesting because, of course, we've had those previous strikes that you spoke about. There's three attack and strikes. Previously in November, we've had the storm shadow strike. Then there was the Oresnyi strike, which did cause a big stir in the West as well.

Then there was at the same time. Was it three or two attackums? Or was it two attackmonds? Two attackings strikes. It was one attackums, then the storm shadows, then another attackums. And that's when the Oresnik came, right? And then the Ereschenik came. And there was also a telephone call between Gerasim of the chief of the Russian general staff

and Brown, who was the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. Was that after the Eresnik or before? Around the same time. It was everything took place. what, you know, everything took place together. But clearly, and it's widely assumed that Gerasim gave the American some kind of a warning. And it wasn't, it's important to say, people are overlooking this, that when the Russians retaliated, obviously there was the Ereschenic strike on the Yuzmash factory in NEPRO, which is a big event and one that attracted a huge amount of

attention. But it wasn't the only retaliation that the Russians conduct. because they tracked down and found five Haimars launchers in Sumi region, which were clearly the launchers that had been used to conduct the attack and strikes in Russia, and they were destroyed. There's no denial of this. And the Russians also attack a certain other locations across Ukraine. and one of them was an intelligence gathering or analysis building operated by the Krakhan unit, which is by the way connected to the Azov brigades, and which is connected also to the Ukrainian military intelligence organization, the one that's headed by Budanov. Anyway, that was attacked.

And the Ministry of Defense, the Russian Ministry of Defense, said that there were American personnel there and that they were killed. And they also conducted another strike on another location where they said there were French personnel helping Ukraine conduct attacks with sea drones and that French personnel were killed. Now, the last strikes, the destructions of the attackers launchers, the Haimars launches, the destruction of the killing of the American and French personnel. That has never been reported, as far as I'm aware, in the media in the West. The Eurasianic strike was reported, though, again, there was an attempt to downplay.

But then we had this long stretch of several weeks when there were no further strikes at all. And then suddenly, out of the blue, we get this new strike. with six attackers missiles, notice in a completely different part of Russia. So previously, the Americans had said that the attackers were being launched, that the area where the attacks would take place would be Kursk region and areas nearby. Taganrog, where this attack has taken place, latest attack is taking place, is a port city on the Black Sea. It has nothing to do with Korskids, located, you know, a long, long, long distance away from Kuzk. It's got no connection with Kuzk at all. And it's actually fairly close to Kroynit, by the way, just say.

And it's a famous city in Russia, by the way. I believe it's Chechho, the Russian writer's birthplace. It's also a place where there's an air base. And it's also a place where it's also a place where an important Russian aircraft design bureau, the Berrier design bureau is located, and they produce Russia's AWACS aircraft and electronic operating systems and things like that for aircraft, though the production facilities for these things, for the radars and all of that, are located deep inside Russia. But anyway, another attack and strike. And like all of the attack and strikes that we have seen, according to the Russian Defence Ministry, and there is no reason to doubt what they say, this attack and strike was a complete failure. Two missiles shot down,

four missiles thrown off course by electronic jamming. None of the targets hit, some damage caused by debris, which, you know, the missiles that were shot down, some of the debris fell on various places, a few people injured, apparently, some cars in a nearby car park destroyed, and superficial damage done to an airstrip, to the airstrip and to two buildings. But no significant damage done. So another use of very expensive, relatively rare missiles, to achieve nothing in practical terms. But, of course, again, to cross Russian red lines. I mean, there is this constant desire to cross red lines.

It has no bearing on the wall. It doesn't help Ukraine. The Ukrainian military are not successful at the moment. They're losing ground everywhere. and yet the United States, which is clearly deeply implicated in these strikes, nobody has denied or contradicted Putin's claims that these missile strikes cannot be launched without the direct involvement of US technicians. Despite all of that, despite the fact that this is a violation of red lines,

the use of American personnel to conduct strikes in, pre-2014 Russian territory, which is, as Putin has pointed out, an act of war by the United States against Russia. Despite all of that, the lack of effect, the provocative nature of this, they're just doing it again. And the Russian Defence Ministry says that they will retaliate. Now, everybody is assuming that it is going to be another attack with the Eurasianic missile. It might very well be, by the way. The assumption that it's going to be confined to Ukraine is possibly true. I think it is highly likely, given that we are looking at the last days of the current administration and the next administration, the Trump administration, is likely to take a very different line

on Ukraine, which probably means that the Russians will want to respond. in a measured way rather than an over-provocative way at this time. But, you know, we can't make that assumption. The Russians have said that they're prepared to conduct missile strikes outside Russia. And they've demonstrated that they do have that capability and that the West has no means to intercept Ereshnik missiles if they are used. So, you know, we can't be sure that it's going to be in Ukraine. And we can't be sure that it's going to be with the Oresnik either, by the way,

because going back to what I said at the start of the program, it isn't just the previous retaliation wasn't just with the Oresnik. It was also the destruction of the Haimars launchers that had carried out the previous attack and also the hunting of American and French personnel in Ukraine itself. So it could be that the Russians will do something like that too. So a number of questions. Why do this? Why conduct these incredibly provocative missile strikes, which are so militarily ineffective.

And what difference is it going to make to the war? Well, we can say none. So there must be a political explanation to this. And I'm going to suggest it's perfectly clear now. The Biden administration is doing everything they possibly. can to create tensions between Russia and the United States in advance of the new Trump administration. They're trying to make trouble between the Russians and Donald Trump. Yeah, that's obvious, obvious, because of the target that they chose.

They went outside of Kursk. They did this on purpose. So the U.S. chose a target which crosses another red line. I think you could say that if maybe the attackums were confined to Kursk, then maybe it wouldn't have been as provocative, but they wanted to make sure that this was a very provocative strike, so they go after Rostov, the area in Rostov. They want, I believe they want Russia to retaliate with the Oreznik.

That's my sense of things. yeah, I believe they want this type of retaliation. They really didn't report on the High Mars. The collective West Mainstream media did not report on the second retaliation, which took out the High Mars and then the hunting down of U.S. and French troops. Obviously, they don't want to report about U.S. and French troops being hunted down, allegedly, allegedly being hunted down and annihilated by a Russian retaliation that would not play well in the United States.

So they suppressed that, or in France, so they suppress that information if this is true. But they also didn't report on the high mars, the fact that five high mars were destroyed. They didn't really talk about that. They talked a lot about the Odershinik. But they want an Odershinik strike. And my sense is that they want Russia to retaliate

with an Odershinik inside of Ukraine in order to create some sort of incident. escalation on the side of Russia to really promote some sort of Russian escalation into Ukraine, which shows that Putin cannot be trusted, which shows the barbarity of Russia. And in that way, it would make it even more difficult for Trump to engage with Putin. I mean, something along those lines. I mean, that's, do you get a feeling that that's what they're looking to create? That is exactly what they're looking to create.

There is no other explanation for this than that, because these strikes have no military significance. They are failing. I mean, that is, I mean, if these strikes actually were doing real damage to the Russian military, then you could argue that there's some kind of military logic behind them. But there's no military logic behind them. They're expensive missiles that are being thrown away. to no useful purpose, military purpose. Do you believe the 50 number of attackers?

Do you believe the number that was given by the Times UK of 50 attackums in inventory? I'd be extremely wary about accepting those numbers. But, you know, maybe it's true. But the point is, anyway, whatever, the point is, these strikes are not effective. So if they're not effective, and there's no doubt now, I mean, we've had the attackers have been in use in this war for over a year. year and they've not achieved anything like the effect that their advocates said that they would. They proved, if I have to be honest, they proved a failure. So the only purpose for continuing to launch them in this way is to goad the Russians into

some kind of reaction, some kind of massive military response, which the Biden administration and the people who are close to Biden want to spin in order to put the Russians in a bad light and to cause problems for Donald Trump. I mean, that's the only conceivable explanation for why this has been done in the way that it has. The Russians understand that perfectly. Well, they will respond because they said they would.

They can't simply allow their red lines to be crossed. They will respond. They might use an Orrashnik, by the way, though if they do, I suspect it will be on a military target or some other target that is obviously connected to the war because they don't want to play into the Biden administration's game. And quite plausibly, they will respond in other ways also. So it's, again, an incredibly cynical game and a reckless. and desperate one. I mean, this thing has a quality of desperation about it.

It's like the war isn't going well, and therefore there is now clear signs that Trump wants to find some way out of the war. So you try and stir the pot, you try and make as much trouble in the last days of your administration as you can. And this is what this is. Well, yeah, it absolutely is desperate because Ukraine is obviously losing. lost the conflict. The Biden White House has lost the conflict. The European Union, they're in a complete mess. They've been completely embarrassed and humiliated by the entire Project Ukraine. So yeah,

it's absolutely out of desperation. But the conflict that is unfolding in Dombas and in Kursk, I think that's what's really driving all of, all of the events that we see unfolding in Ukraine. And Russia continues to advance and to advance at a very quick pace. I mean, you know, the events in Syria, everything that's happened in Syria has kind of overtaken the new cycle, and there isn't much reporting on what is happening in the conflict in Ukraine. But over the past week, Russia has continued to take over territories, towns, villages. I believe a cauldron is being set up in Kursk, in the Kersk, Sumeria, as well, which would be a huge defeat for the Ukraine military. So, yeah, no one's discussing, or at least over the past week,

no one is really discussing Russia's big advances in the Dombas. No, they're not. You're absolutely correct. And in fact, I'm going to go further. I mean, the Russian offensive has been slowly accelerating week after week, month after month, since early summer. It means like, you know, those big Saturn five rockets that the US used to launch, where you see the rocket goes up, it seems to go up very slowly, and then it gradually picks up speed, and then it moves at unbelievable tempos. It's exactly the same with the Russian offensive. It is moving very fast now. If it continues like this, and the Ukrainians themselves are now increasingly talking about this, you get a commentary after commentary discussion.

after discussion on the Ukrainian side of the internet that the front lines are close, are heading towards collapse. So I'll just a quick, quick rundown. We already have at least two cauldrons apparently, I mean small cauldrons in the sense that we're probably talking about hundreds of troops. But there are Ukrainian troops surrounded in Koura, which is this town, important strategic town in southern Denghis. The Russians have captured most of it. Everybody expects that it will fall within a few days. The only reason it hasn't fallen, by the way,

is because the Ukrainian troops in it can't leave. It's very difficult for them to leave because they have the Russians all around them. So it's likely that they will try to leave, but as how, happened with Uglada, very few of them will get through. And just as in Uglada, one of Ukraine's best brigades, the 72nd brigade, was destroyed. It looks like the 79th brigade, which is another one of Ukraine's best brigades, is being destroyed in this fighting around Kurov and in the

various villages to the south of it as well. Even more dramatic have been advances a little further to the north around Pakrosk. You remember this important town there, you know, on the main roads, the big logistical hub. The Russians have been rolling up all the villages south of Pakrovsk. They're now located to the west of Pakrovsk itself. That means that they're in a position where they can suit start cutting off the supply roads to Pakrosk. A Ukrainian commentator called Butusuf, who is a very astute commentator, a very good commentator. A very good converse. commentated, very, very fervidly pro-you know, on the Ukrainian side. But he says an entire fortified position was lost to the Russians because there were no Ukrainian troops to man it. So, you know,

signs of a collapse in Pakrovsk. There was a, the Ukrainians a couple of weeks ago conducted another of their completely pointless counter-attacks in Toretsk, which slowed the Russians down, But now all the positions that they briefly recaptured, they appear to have lost, the Russians seat have captured all of the major fortified positions in Toretsk. Again, it's universally expected that this town is going to fall within the next couple of days or weeks at most. Even the Ukrainians are saying this. In Chassefya, another big fortified place, it seems that the Russians have captured of the key fortified position, the various factories in the center of the town. It looks like Jasifiyah is about to fall.

And the big looming crisis is in Kuzk region, where again, the Ukrainians were claiming that they'd carried out some successful counterattacks over the last week or so, except it increasingly looks as if they didn't. And there's now clear signs, as you rightly said, that the Russians are positioning themselves where they can start to cut off the main supply lines to the Ukrainian group in Kuzk, which would create a huge quadrant.

I mean, if that happens, you know, we're not looking at a few hundred troops being surrounded. We're looking probably at tens of thousands. And note, no North Korean troops in sight. All that narrative, notice how it's just suddenly been switched off. The Ukrainian soldiers in Kusk, they have never seen any North Korean soldiers. They're talking very sourly about the fact that, you know, difficult to capture North Korean soldiers, especially if they're not there.

They're making those kind of comments. But the point is, put all that. narrative spin aside, it looks as if we are actually very close to a cauldron being set up there. And that would be an absolute disaster. I mean, that would be probably a terminal blow to the Ukrainian army. If the Ukrainian group in Kursk is cut off, then that's the major force Ukraine has in the northern front lines. It would open the way to Kiev. the elite forces that have been deployed to Kersk, the best weaponry has been deployed to Kersk, and of course, the main narrative for the Elie Zelensky regime.

It's been all about Kersk in the collective West. All they've been doing is talking about Kersk for the last six months. So, yeah, that would be a huge defeat for Ukraine and the collective West. what do you think about the the cauldron closing? I mean, where are we with that? It's my final question. I mean, because I do believe that would be a decisive victory for Russia. I mean, where are we going to see a retreat? Ken Zelensky afford to retreat because the optics of that would also be bad. Where are we with the situation there? I think we're probably some weeks from the point where we see the cauldron close, but we are getting closer and closer to that point every single day.

So before January 20 years. Before January, I'd say so, yes. Before Trump is inaugurated. Now, what Zelensky and Susky are going to do in this situation is, of course, unknown whether they will actually pull the Ukrainian troops out. I have to say this is starting to remind me a little bit of Poroshenko and the Ukrainian army in 2015, when Poroshenko also ordered an offensive, and around 20,000 Ukrainian troops got trapped in the town of DeBalzbovall, if you remember. And that was what created a massive crisis.

Merkel dashed Moscow. There was talks with Putin. And the result of it was another meeting in Minsk and the Minsk agreement came out of it. The Russians, of course, would never agree to anything like that this time. So we are in something that is starting to resemble a similar situation. A massive political disaster for Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian troops pulled back from Kusk, just as it was, would have been. for Poroshenko, if he'd ordered the retreat of his troops from DeBalseva.

So he'd get them there. Zelensky looks like he's going to keep them, because in Poroshenko's case, that meant that the Ukrainian troops, the best part of the Ukrainian army got trapped in DeBalseville in 2015. Who knows? The same thing might happen again. Final question, do you think that's why Macron is rushing off to Poland in order to get 40,000 troops, he's trying to round up 40,000 European troops.

Do you think this is what he's looking to do, maybe, to reinforce Kursk? Possibly. I mean, it's difficult to say. But I mean, 40,000 European troops cannot be sent to Ukraine in combat conditions, fast enough to change this situation. I mean, put aside the politics of this would be, which would be horrendous. I mean, they would be absolutely horrific. There would be massive opposition. But getting together an expeditionary force to send to Ukraine would take months. This isn't going to happen soon enough to save the Ukrainian troops in course. Of course, Macron might not understand that. He doesn't understand much about war, so he probably doesn't understand this. Yes, but it's panic, though. It is a

a general panic. Yeah. And I believe even if those troops can, can be moved out before the cauldron shuts, it's still going to look really bad for Zelensky and the collective West. Well, first of all, how do they break the cauldron? The optics of it. Yeah, the optics would be terrible. I don't know. How do they break the cauldron? I mean, are they going to turn those troops into course? There's 40,000 men to fighting the Russians in those? I don't know. Or are they going to try and send them somewhere else to Pocryor somewhere. One way or the other, I mean, none of that makes any kind of sense in this situation. But, you know, with Macron, nothing could be, you know, excluded. He's a wild card, to put it mildly, he might try to do something like that.

I think the French army would be horrified, by the way. Does Siersky still have time, though, to remove the bulk of the troops who are about to be trapped in this area? If you took the decision now. In your, in your, if you took the decision now, yeah. If you took the decision now, if a decision were made today to withdraw from course, yes, it could be done. I mean, it would be, it would be complicated and very difficult, but it could be done. Probably there's still a time window of a few weeks.

But, you know, by the new year, things, at the rate things are going, it might become a lot harder. But the problem always, and this has been a problem right the way through with the way the Ukraine has conducted the war, is that politics has always been more important to the way the Ukrainians have run the war than actual strategic decisions. Yeah, I believe the BBC article that came out last week said something along the lines of hold on to curse no matter what. I forgot the title. I think that was actually in the title of that BBC article.

Kling on, cling on to curse. Kling on to Kirstk until Trump, until Trump is inaugurated. Exactly. Why that's going to make any difference in this situation, you know, even if they were to succeed in that, it's not really explained. It, again, gives a kind of feverish side

to Ukrainian thinking. But of course, again, the risks in doing that are enormous. The key thing to understand about the, grouping in Kuzk, the Ukrainian grouping in Kuzk, is that it relies on only one road. There's only one big road in this area, the one the Soviets built, by the way, from Tsumi, which is the big town in Ukraine, in the nearby town in Ukraine, which runs to the city of Kusk itself and which passes through Sousja. And the entire Ukrainian grouping in Kuzk depends on that road. The Ukrainian has tried to enlarge the pocket. They tried to conduct offensives to the north and south of where

the Ukrainian troops now are, to try to broaden the pocket and to try to establish other supply routes. But all of those attempts failed. So the Ukrainian forces in Korsk, who have lost around half the territory that they previously controlled, now depend on one road. Why doesn't Russia just cut off that road, hit that road? Well, always we have those questions about why the Russians are, you know, acting in the way that they are, why they're doing it as slowly as they are. I think military calculations play a role. I think the Russians are playing this war at all, in all places.

if they focused exclusively on Kuzk, they could probably do it. They could cut off the Ukrainian troops there. But I think they also have objectives to capture Prakovsk and Torezk and Charsafiard and to clear up in Donbass and to do all of these things. And there may be military calculations and political calculations, which I simply don't know. I think that the way the Russians have conducted the war right from the first day, He's make haste slowly. And that's their doctrine.

That's their style of war. And I don't think they're going to change it. However, impatient, various other people might be. They're not going to rush. They're not going to rush simply because Trump is inaugurated on the 20th of January. The Ukrainians may be working to that timetable. The Russians have never shown that they work to political timetable. at all. Yeah, but the Ukrainians may not be able to cling on to Kursk until January 20th,

which has been Zelensky's order to the military. Exactly. Well, exactly. This is the problem that he has, which explains his panic, which also explains a lot of his panic as well. Oh, absolutely. I mean, there may be, if you want me, I mean, I'm not a military person, as I said many times, but if you want me to explain some kind of military logic here, what the Ukrainians are currently doing in Kursk is instead of pulling their troops out, they are reinforcing that. They're still sending more and more of their best troops to Kuz, to try to hold the pocket there. They're sending more and more of their equipment to Kusk. So in effect, they're sending more men into the bag. So you could argue that maybe that's what the Russians want. They want those Ukrainian troops in Kuzk,

where they've been gradually surrounded rather than fighting to defend in places like Pachrovsk and Torek and Jasefya, where if they were located, they might actually be making a difference. So, I mean, this is, I mean, don't take this analysis. I said, I'm not a military person and the general staff in Moscow doesn't share its plans with Nate. But if you want me to to make a guess, that would be mine. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com.

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