The Duran Podcast - Avdeyevka Collapse & Possible Trump Presidency Fuels EU Panic

Episode Date: November 28, 2023

Avdeyevka collapse & possible Trump presidency fuels EU panic

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine. And I think we have to start off with Avdyevka. The situation is moving fast, actually, and it's moving in a very bad direction for Ukraine and for the Alaskan regime. So what is the situation with Abdefka? I think you put your finger on it. is moving much faster than I think nearly anyone up to this point had expected. I mean, the expectation was that the fighting in Avdavka was going to last go on for months, that this is an enormously heavily fortified area,

that it would be only one, you know, block at a time, and one building, what structure at a time. And in fact, things are moving remarkably fast. So the thing to understand about of D'Evka is that the Russians launched a series of offensives in this area back in March. And then they stopped whilst the Ukrainian offensive of the summer got underway. The moment the Ukrainian offensive ended, they resumed their attacks around Avdewka. But what they achieved in the fighting in March and early April was that they captured some important villages to the west, to the northwest and to the southwest of Avdhevka. So Avdewka is now very much in a salient.

It is surrounded by the Russians on three sides. Now, it is a heavily fortified area, or so we were told. But what happened over the weekend is that the Russians broke through some of the most heavy defences in the southeast part of Avdavka, and it seems the northwest part of Avdavka. and it seems the northwest part of Avdavka. So there was an industrial area to the southwest of Avdavka, which was, if you actually look at a map of Avdavka, it goes right up to the boundary of the residential part of the town.

And it's also higher ground, so it looks down. on, you know, the residential areas of Avdavka from the south. So the Russians captured it, and they captured it very fast. And the Ukrainian soldiers who were defending there, apparently, they broke. There's reports, there's stories that some of them surrendered. There's even a story that 150 of them surrendered. Well, we don't know for a fact that that's the case. But what you do see is pictures of these soldiers running,

way chased by Russian tanks. So the Russians broke in their armor, their tanks were operating in this industrial area without apparently meeting very much opposition. And this part of the defense system, which had been expected to hold out for weeks, broke very quickly. And it's not just that, you know, the Russians have got to the edge of, of Defka Town itself and have now pushed past the major fortifications. But they've also apparently isolated other Ukrainian units somewhat to the, you know, on each side of this breakthrough. So that it's plausible that these Ukrainian troops who are in these other places will also have to withdraw, which will be, you know, which will mean that even more of the territory of this defense, this area, this area that Ukraine

controls is going to rapidly fall under Russian control. Now that will reduce the territory within of dervka controlled by the Ukrainians quite significantly. It will start to compress them. There are also reports that the Russians are pushing towards Avdavka from the north, but this is more, sketchy but it will compress them and it will make this whole salient increasingly look like a funnel like a sort of a kind of tube with the you know the russians on three sides and the Ukrainians having to sort of if they want the sentence supplies in or pull people out passed through what is quite a long distance through what is increasingly looking like a rather narrow funnel. Now, the other thing that happened over the weekend is that two of the military units,

Ukrainian military units that have been defending Avdavka had a public quarrel. One of these units, I think it was the 53rd Brigade, which is not in Avdavka itself, but is defending the flanks somewhat to the west of Avdegka. They apparently contacted the men of the 110th Brigade, which is the brigade which has been defending of Devka town, and by the way, this industrial area. And the men of the 53rd Brigade said, look, we're under such intense pressure from the Russians.

We are being bombed all the time. The Russians are now dropping cluster bombs on us. the situation is becoming unbearable, we may have to retreat, and you should retreat also. The men of the 110th Brigade who are defending Abderevka, they got furious with this. They said, you know, you're cowards, you're running away from the Russians. We're fighting here in Avdyafka. Situation, however, for us, is also incredibly bad. and, you know, if you pull back, we'll have to pull back to.

And besides just the fact that you're talking in the way that you are talking means that perhaps it's not even, that doesn't even make sense that we should go on fighting in Avdavka in the way that we are. And this happened, this public quarrel happened, interestingly, just before the defence in this industrial area collapsed. So it could be that the morale of the soldiers who are defending Avdyevka is sinking. Now, there is one other important development, which is some way to the west. There is a sort of railway line which the Russians have been pushing up towards.

This is in the northwest of Derfka. There was an article about a week ago in El Pais, a journalist from the newspaper in Spain went there, He had a conversation with a Ukrainian soldier who was defending this railway line. He said the Russians captured the railway line and are able to send tanks and armoured vehicles across. Then it's curtains. They'll be able eventually to close the other end of this tube and the people in Avdévka will be trapped. Well, yesterday we started to see film. The Russians have indeed captured the railway.

they're starting to send armored vehicles west of the railway. There is still a bitter battle going on there. But if the Russians are able to consolidate and push even further and harder in this area, then as I said, both ends of the tube start to close. So this is a disastrous situation for Ukraine. for Ukraine, yeah, for Ukraine, for NATO, the collective West. So I've been saying for a while now on my videos that, you know, as of Defka Falls, so does Alensky's government.

Yeah, I agree. How true is that? I think it is. And you can see this. And can he cover it up? And can he cover it up like Mahmout? That's my follow-up question. Can he cover it up like Bakhmud?

Go ahead. Well, he will. First of all, I mean, they will. I mean, we're still getting all these reports that, you know, thousands of Russians are dying in Avdyevka, the British Ministry of Defense today, so that Russian, plausibly, the Russians are losing a thousand men in day across the battlefronts.

What is bizarre about those claims, by the way, is that the Western governments and media outlets are ignoring the analysis of rights. Russian losses carried out by the BBC and media zona, which is this NGO, which is Western funded. And they don't actually corroborate any of this. They show that Russian losses are relatively low. There has been a spike, an upward spike during the fighting in Havdaio, as one would expect, but they're not reporting this huge surge in losses that Western governments and militaries and Ukraine is talking about. But they will go on talking about that. They will start

to say all kinds of things. Firstly, we'll probably have about two weeks when the Ukrainians deny that Avdavka has fallen. I mean, that's what happened with Solidar. It was what happened with Bachman. Then they will probably never announce that Abderivka has fallen. fallen, but you'll find out eventually if you follow the Western news that it has indeed fallen. Then they will start to deny that Avdavka is particularly important. You know, that we've been told that it's this enormously important strategic point, the linchpin and the defence system. Then we're going to be told that, you know, it's actually irrelevant, that the Russians have

suffered enormous losses capturing this irrelevant, irrelevant place. And then we'll be told that the Ukrainian forces that came out were largely intact and that they have created stronger fortified lines further west. We're going to hear all of this. But I think the reality is that Avdavka has been so built up, both in the West and even more so in Ukraine. that and Ukraine morale now is so low that I don't think this time any of that is going to carry traction. I mean, they pulled it off in Maripal. They pulled it off to a certain extent in Bahamut and Solidal. I think this time what they're going to face is a really big credibility gap.

And going back to your point about the fall above Daevka. leading to a governmental crisis in Kiev and quite plausibly the fall of Zelensky. Well, as you've been talking about yourself, you can see all the signs of political tension in Kiev now. You have had Zelensky sacking the deputy ministers of the interior ministry, which is the organization that is supposed to provide internal security. you can see lots of talk about a coup, claims that the Russians are trying to organize a kind of counter-Maidan in Kiev. This morning, a report from Ukrainian officials that Putin has given orders to the sleeper cells in Kiev to become activated, to launch all. of these protests. You have this constant sniping between Zollusioni and Zelensky now, which is

right there now in the open. You've got the sacking of generals, army generals and criticisms of army generals. So you can sense the fear and the political tensions building up and growing all the time. So quite plausibly, there will be a political crisis. Quite plausibly, Zelensky's government might fall. I mean, it's not impossible. We are not far from that point. If it survives, it will survive in a fractured form. And only after what I would have thought was a major clear out of, you know, other people in the army, in the military, in the interior ministry. And then only because Zelensky still has enough backers in the West to see him through. But even that is now under question.

Yeah, the West is trying, his backers are trying to get this 60 billion into his coffers. But they're having a hard time. They're going to get something to him in the United States. They'll get something. And I have this sense that Elensky's big backers are the Europeans, I think, like the Germans and the Vanderelyans and Burrells. I get the sense that they're the ones that are keeping Olensky afloat, more than the Americans. That's the sense that I get. But, you know, after FDefka, I also get the sense that he's going to have to –

Zelensky's going to have to fire somebody, and he might actually pull the trigger and fire Zoluzni. And he's been warned not to fire Zalusini by many people. So I don't know. It seems like Avdefka might be the point where all kinds of bad decisions are going to be made, and then they're just going to snowball. And then you have the collective West in panic mode, and they're trying to get money to Ukraine. maybe perhaps the last big tranches of money to Ukraine. I think you're absolutely right on every single point.

Firstly, about the Americans and Zelensky. I think the Americans are absolutely fed up with Zelensky. I mean, Biden and Zelensky didn't get on particularly well. Nobody gets on particularly well with Joe Biden. Even Zelensky doesn't. But, I mean, it's well-known that they've not had an easy relationship. Biden finds Zelensky perhaps insufficiently deferential and insufficiently grateful for all the help he's been getting and all that. But anyway, I think they find him difficult to control.

I think they're frustrated by the fact that he doesn't do always what they tell him to do. They've made a big issue about Bachmut, the fact that he insisted on fighting in Bachmut. And I don't know to what extent that has any real. basis actually in the real facts. But it's, you know, the story that you read every day in the, well, you read frequently in the media in the United States, not, by the way, in Britain or in Europe. And I think, as I said, that the Americans would love to find some way of getting Zelensky off the scene and replacing him with someone else. And what they want that other person, to do. I think it's now fairly clear. We've had comments from Richard Hasse. He's just written

another article in foreign affairs. He's given interviews on MSNBC. He basically is, I think, now speaking for what I think is now the consensus in the US. They want him, they want Zelensky off the scene. They had that article about him in time, saying that he was messianic and delusional. They want him off the scene. They want someone else. They want that someone else. to talk to the Russians, to get a freeze of the war, so that the US can concentrate on its elections and can walk away from this problem in Ukraine, which is turning into a serious debacle and a distraction from other things that the United States wants to do in other places, in the Middle East, in the Pacific, and all of that.

The Europeans, by contrast, have massively invested in Zelensky. and not just the Europeans, but the British. I mean, don't forget the British, they're also a player of sort in this matter. So they have built up Zelensky into this Churchillian figure. For them, it would be a very hard sell indeed to their own publics to see Zelensky go, especially if it appeared that it was being engineered. And to turn around and to tell the people of Europe, in the middle of an economic, crisis, with a cold winter now upon us, with all of the other things that have happened,

well, that this man that we told you was this great hero, that he's not really a hero, that he's an obstacle and that he's lost touch and he's delusional and messianic and all of those things. I think that people in Europe, really, the leaderships in Europe, realize what an impossibly difficult cell that would be. But there is another. factor at play, which is that the Europeans and the Americans have a different perspective on the war. Also, they started the war, the Europeans and the Americans together. You know, brimming with enthusiasm, I go back to the Munich Security Conference in early 2022, which I have never forgotten.

The Europeans were in a state of euphoria because finally, the Brueenic. breaks had been taken off in the United States. That terrible man, Donald Trump, was off the scene. They could go full tilt, support the Americans. The Americans wanted regime change in Moscow. The Europeans also wanted regime change in Moscow. They all wanted to see regime change in Moscow. So they were enthusiastic backers of the project in 2022.

What they've now discovered is that the Americans can walk away. They're a continent and an ocean away. They've got a state, they've got an economy in much better shape than the European economy, and they don't have the Russians at their doorstep. With the Europeans, it's different. Their economy is in a terrible state. And they are losing a war on their western borders, and they will have the Russians.

on their doorstep. And you can start to see the panic taking hold. The Finns fortifying their borders just after they joined NATO. Stupid decision. I think some people in Finland are beginning to understand. The Estonians beginning to do the same thing. The talk about the NATO Schengen area, which is being revived. You can sense the fear and the panic continuing to take hold.

And so from the European perspective, they want the war to continue. They can't just switch it off. And that leads them back to Zelensky, because they don't want to see political instability in Kiev. They don't want to see a crisis there. They want this thing holding together sufficiently long in the hope that something will turn up. And always remember something else about the Europeans. I talk about the Europeans. To be very clear, I mean people like Osceola von de Lyon, the beerbox, the Harbex, all of those kind of people. The biggest nightmare for them of all

is of a deal done over their heads by the Americans and the Russians. The Americans and the Russians agreeing spheres of influence in Europe, something that would mean that the United States is gradually losing interest in Europe, leaving the Europeans to deal with the Russians on their own. That is for these people the ultimate nightmare. And again, that motivates them to continue to back Zelensky and the war, even as they increasingly realize that it's going wrong. That is exactly what Donald Trump should do if he gets into office. If he wins the election, what he should do is he should strike a deal with Putin. Yeah, everyone's going to flip out.

But at this point in time, what does Donald Trump care anyway, right? He shouldn't care what people say, what the media says. He should do a deal with Putin. And they should decide the security of Europe. Plain and simple, you don't even need to bring the Europeans into, to sit at the table. It should be decided between the United States and Russia. That should be what Trump should do. Because let's be honest, there are no European leaders with the exception of Orban. Maybe it feet so now, but there are no European leaders that are going to want to sit down and deal with Trump.

They despise Trump. They absolutely hate Trump. So if, if that happens, that would be the way to go about securing stability in Europe. The European leaders are going to freak out. Absolutely. But if you want a stable, secure Europe, you have to get Russia in the United States to agree on that architecture. So I just wanted to say that. I've been reading a lot. My final question to you is I've been reading a lot of reports coming out of Europe talking about a potential conflict with Russia. At least it seems like the Europeans are preparing the population for an eventual war with Russia in the next two, three, five years. The Europeans, they are trying to produce ammunition and weapons.

They are trying to ramp up production. they continue to talk about investing money into the war effort. And you're getting a lot of analysts, TV shows, generals, all talking about how Europe needs to prepare for war with Russia. Pavel's statement, the NATO Schengen that you just mentioned. Is it me or does it feel like the euphoria in the Munich security, conference about a Ukraine proxy war with Russia. Are you seeing the same type of euphoria or is it panic on the European side of things to prepare for a war with Russia? Is that even possible? Is that, I mean, can Europe go to war, the EU? Can it go to war with Russia? And wouldn't there

be some neocons in the United States who would be very happy to? see Europe smash yourself against Russia? Go ahead. We encourage you to ramp up production and smash your entire economy and your entire society against Russia. Are you seeing these reports, these articles, these interviews about how Europe needs to ramp up for a war with Russia? Not Ukraine, Europe. Yeah. Indeed, absolutely. These things are everywhere now. They're becoming very common. And of course, what Pavel said, Pietro Pavl said, is very indicative now of a certain type of language, which is coming out of a certain type of European politician. And bear in mind, when I say a certain type of European politician, it is important to remember

that these are the politicians who are still in control. I mean, we're talking about the political leadership that is in control in Europe at the moment. And yes, Yes, they are talking about a war in Russia. Now, in my opinion, it is such a ludicrous, such a fantastical idea that it cannot be put down to euphoria. It is clearly panic. I mean, whereas in the Munich Security Conference, you could see these people were absolutely exuberant. They were exhilarated. They were, I mean, they were, they were in, you know, delight. in rapture because finally they were going to settle once and for all Europe's Russia problem, which is apparently what they were saying to each other, you know, the Russia problem that has existed ever since the time of Peter the Great. It's incredible to say this, but there was apparently private discussions in which people were using those kind of phrases with each other. It seems astonishing. But this is finally going to happen. We're going to achieve regime

change there. The assumption was that, you know, under the pressure, the sanctions pressure, Russia would fall apart like a house of cards. Nobody thought that they would not only withstand the sanctions, but go on to become stronger and economically more prosperous and go on to win the war as well. So that was euphoria. What you're getting now is panic. It's all gone wrong. it's suddenly dawning on people that they're losing the war in Ukraine and they're starting to understand that the possibility that the Americans might cut this deal with the Russians, that a Donald Trump, for example, might do it, is increasing. There have been lots of articles in the British media about what had tremendous danger

a Donald Trump presidency would be. And you could tell that behind the language, you know, the way they bring up all these other unrelated topics, the core issue, again, is this fear that Trump and Putin are going to get together and they're going to agree this grand bargain with each other, which Trump had talked about at the start of his presidency, but was never able to execute on. This time, given the debacle in Ukraine, he not only would want to do it, but he might pull it off.

And bear in mind, Putin has recently said he can't imagine any kind of reconciliation with the Europeans, but some kind of an arrangement with the United States is possible and even before long likely to happen. So you can see that the Europeans are very, very frightened and panicky about. this. So like people who are in a state of panic, they're going around and telling to each other, well, we don't need the Americans. Even if the Americans go away, we can somehow take on the bear by ourselves. Our GDP is multiple times greater. We're far richer, far stronger than they are. The reality is there is no way Europe can fight the Russians by itself. It needs the Americans to do it. And every European leader knows it.

If you look at the state of European militaries, they're weaker now than they were in February 2022. I'm getting more and more reports right across Europe about how the warehouses have emptied. And Olaf Schultz's great plan to build up the German military, enhance its military power, bring it to the point where, you know, it becomes, you know, Germany becomes a great military power again. The reality is things are going in the diametrically opposite direction. It's proved impossible to crank up military production. Shell production is still apparently at around 4,000 rounds a month. The United States manages 28,000 a month.

The Russians are probably producing hundreds of thousands of rounds a month. Nobody knows exactly how much. The Europeans aren't producing tanks. They aren't reducing aircraft, missile production is apparently very low, the militaries are growing weaker, the European publics are completely against any idea of a war with Russia or with anyone else. So it's brave talk that these people are engaging with each other, they're trying to tell each other, Look, it's, you know, we can't be disregarded. We're still strong and you sense that beneath it.

They don't, they know it isn't true. And they know that without the Americans, they can achieve nothing. And that they're starting to panic because they sense that this deal between the Americans and the Russians is coming. All right. Let's end the video there. I wonder what Putin and Russia would do. What's this conflict, this battle, Ukraine, which is just one part of this big war.

I wonder how Putin is going to leave Russia, Russia, so that it doesn't have to deal with this European heading. Because, you know, we're always talking about the EU. Well, the EU, you said that the EU wanted to solve their Russia problem, right? Which is what they thought. And Viktor Orban said as much the other day in Switzerland. He basically said the Europeans were the big plan was that the EU would let Ukraine fight Russia. Russia would lose on the front lines.

We'd get regime change in Moscow and everything would be great. And Europe would then be negotiating with the new Russian government. And then, of course, volcanization and dividing up Russia. I mean, they would solve their Russia problem. That's what Orban said. The EU would pretty much solve their Russia problem. You're saying the same thing. But, you know, we never asked the reverse question.

And, you know, sooner or later, Putin is going to resign. And my feeling is that Putin wants to leave Russia in a state where Russia doesn't have to worry about the European problem. because Europe, you know, Europe says Russia's a problem for us. Well, you know, Europe is a problem for Russia. And it has been a problem for Russia for many hundreds of years. So my question to you is, how do you think Russia is going to deal with Europe? How do they solve the Europe problem? I think they've made their, they've made their position actually extremely clear. It's an overlooked fact. that this was part of the discussion that took place in that televised Russian Security Council meeting on the 21st of February 2022, the one that took place shortly before Putin announced

the special military operation and the recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Russians had previously proposed two draft treaties to the Americans and noticed that they proposed those treaties to the Americans and to NATO, but they specifically sought to engage the Americans. And over the course of that Security Council meeting, I remember various people, including Medvedev, said one of the things we need to do when we get this war over is we need to revisit the topic of these two treaties and get the Americans finally to agree to them. And I think that is exactly what the Russians are going to do. I think Putin has dropped multiple hints about this.

I think you're absolutely right. He does want to resolve the situation on Russia's Western borders so that Russia can focus on its internal economic and social development. He said so, by the way, again, in a meeting that took place, I think it was in November 2021 when he was addressing the Collegium of the Russian Foreign Ministry. He said, we need to resolve this problem of our Western borders once and for all. And that was the treaties that followed. So what he would ideally like to do is to get back into a discussion with the Americans

and get the Americans finally to address. seriously the issues set out in those treaties. And basically what that called for was a pullback of all American troops and NATO equipment from the territories of the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, bring them back to where they were in 1998 when the process of NATO expansion first started and for the United States to commit by treaty that there would be no further NATO expansion. So that is what, that's the deal that Putin wants to do. I mean, he's made it very clear. There's no reason to think that he's changed his mind. Whenever you see him speaking, it's clear to me that he hasn't changed his mind. Now, of course, he's got a plan B in case the

Americans don't agree to this. He's going to win his war in Ukraine. I think everybody can see that now. And what he's also doing is he's building up the Russian military now to enormous dimensions, I mean, enormous relative to what they were. So we're going to have a one and a half million man army. We see huge numbers of tanks, of military machines being produced in enormous numbers. Now, that puts pressure on the United States, because the United States can no longer be strong everywhere. I mean, we're not talking about the 1960s. So the United States, if it's faced with this kind of Russian military buildup and with the Russians once again on Europe's borders, on Poland's borders and all of those sort of places. What does the United States do? Does it try to match the Russians, tank for tank and shell for shell? Does it rebuild the whole military system in Europe that existed in the Cold War? That would be unbelievably expensive to do. And at the same time, of course, the United States is now confronting the other superpower, China in the Pacific. It's got to consider the

need for a big naval buildup in the Pacific? Can it take on China and Russia at one and the same time? The logical thing for the United States to do, so Putin probably will think, is that rather than face that disaster which will leave the United States massively overextended, they cut a deal with the Russians, reduce the need to keep huge numbers of American troops. troops and equipment in Europe. And that way, they can concentrate on other things. So that, I think, is Putin's plan. He's not dealing with rational people, but we'll see.

That, well, I mean, as I said, I think he's now reached that point where, you know, if he has to conduct that massive buildup in Western Russia, what would soon be Western Russia, in other words, former Ukraine and indeed possibly Belarus as well. He will do it and he's shown that he has both the political will and the resources to do it and that the Russians can do it without this undermining their economy. So he will do it. I do think it's what he would prefer.

I think he would prefer a deal with the Americans. But it would have to be a deal that he was confident would stick. And at the time of the draft treaties, back in December 2021. One of the things that the Russians said that they wanted to see was that these treaties were actually ratified as treaties. In other words, they would want to vote in the Senate, in the U.S. Senate, binding the United States by treaty.

And of course, the political obstacles in the face of that are enormous. Yeah. It's just interesting. I wanted to have this discussion before we wrap up the video because everyone is always looking at it, at least obviously from the West. But even in our analysis, we're always thinking, you know, well, how are the Europeans going to react and what are they going to do? And everyone talks about the Russian problem. But no one ever addresses how Russia sees it on their end. Yeah. And it's, you know, it's Russia that has a legitimate grievance or claim or right to say, you know, we need to prevent another catastrophe, another war in our direction. And so for them, this is a problem. And I imagine that Putin is going to address that. That's how I see Putin. I see Putin. Putin as staying in office in order to make sure that when he leaves, he leaves Russia in a very secure and safe position. That's how I see Putin's thinking on this. But we'll see. I think you're absolutely right. I think that is absolutely his view. And can I just say, I mean, about the, I mean, I think, as I said, that the Russians would like to see a deal done with the Americans. But one of the interesting things is that in Russia today, in publication,

after publication in commentary after commentary, you start to see increasingly Russian officials, Russian commentators quoting the famous words of Zara Alexander III that when it comes to its security, Russia has only two reliable allies, its army and its navy. So the Russians are basically saying, look, we would like to do this deal, but fundamentally we don't trust you. If we can do a which passes the Senate, that kind of deal. Well, we will do it because it benefits us. But ultimately, we're never going back to the illusions of the 90s. We're never going to make that mistake again. We will always maintain a strong military in future, precisely because we have to protect ourselves from the Europeans, mostly, but from the Americans to some extent as well.

For Europe, by the way, the future, however it turns out, now looks incredibly bleak. The ultimate disaster, in my opinion, would be another military confrontation in Europe. Europe is in no condition to withstand it. The idea of the Europeans being pushed into another kind of indefinite Cold War with a much more coherent and angry and united Russia and having to depend on the Americans, even at a time where the Americans are overextended. Well, that is a nightmare scenario, in my opinion. strangely enough, the best possible outcome for Europe, or shall I say the least bad one, is that Donald Trump is elected and does deal that deal with Putin. That would be actually, if you really care, you're really concerned about the future of Europe. That is the best deal. That is the best outcome one can now see.

Yep. That's exactly right. All right. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, bitch shoot, Rock Finn, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop 20% off. Use the code VDurad 20. Take care.