The Duran Podcast - Avdeyevka is collapsing, Zelensky travels to Germany

Episode Date: February 16, 2024

Avdeyevka is collapsing, Zelensky travels to Germany

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Avdefka. Collapsing or collapsed? What do you think? Right, that's a very good question. Or somewhere in the middle. Because the situation is utterly chaotic. I think if we have to be objective, it has collapsed in the sense that there is no, as far as I can see, no real organized defense of this town. underway at the moment. The question is no longer can the Ukrainians hold on to Avdhaevka.

The question is whether they can extract their forces from Abdaevka. And it's clear that they've left it far too late. And the defense such as it is is not becoming incredibly disorganized. And in attempts to pull troops out of Avdavka is becoming all but impossible. And that Ukrainian troops in Avdyevka, I've started to understand this. In fact, probably they began to understand it yesterday. And that, you know, we're starting to see essentially a disintegration. In other words, men, soldiers taking decisions by themselves, trying to cross open fields, being attacked by Russian drones and machine guns and that kind of thing, other units abandoning positions. Some people continuing to put up resistance in some places. It looks like communications have completely broken down.

And as I said, it's no longer a case of the Russians gaining overall control of Avdavka. I think that's now a done thing. It's more a situation, as I said, of trying to decide what to do with these thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, for all we know, of Ukrainian troops who are still there. and as I said, cut off, essentially surrounded and broken up into various holdouts and who don't seem to know what to do. And with Kiev itself, not knowing what to do about them either. What is going on with these reports specifically by Reuters, which claim that Sirs is sending the Azov guys, into Avdefka. As he's trying to retreat the units in Afdefka, he's sending these Azov guys to try and hold on to the city a little bit more for a little bit more time. What's going on there?

Yeah, I mean, Reuters is about two days late. I mean, we were getting reports about this. If you've been following the situation on the ground carefully, I think he was about three days ago, the General Tarnavsky, who was the commander of the, Southern group of forces, a Ukraine's southern group of forces, which includes Avedevka, said about three days ago, three or four days ago, that the Azov Brigadegh was being sent to Afdaevka in order to try to stabilize the situation. But of course, what has happened is that since yesterday, we've been getting more and more reports from the Azov Brigade itself, from the third brigade, as it caused itself now, about what they're facing in Averdae.

And they're describing the situation as hell. They say that they are fighting 360 degrees. In other words, that they're surrounded themselves. They are saying that they're suffering incredible losses. They're saying that there are no prepared defenses that they can use. And far from stabilizing the situation, it looks like they're being sucked in or have been sucked in to the engulfing chaos. So as I said, Reuters, if it had published this, it this report three days ago, they would have reported what was actually correct news. But, I mean, now it's been overtaken by events. That operation has failed. I mean, the attempt to use the Azov battalion to stabilize the situation, has already collapsed. Now, that begs a number of questions. are the British concealing what is going on in Avdaevka?

Or is it, which is much more likely, that they're still getting information from the Ukrainians and they're not really looking at the actual situation on the ground and the result is that they are themselves losing understanding of just how bad and chaotic the situation in Avdavka has now become. Now, again, early this morning and indeed continuing throughout the day, I've been getting more and more, seeing more and more reports,

not just from Russian sources, but from Ukrainian ones, about Ukrainian troops in Avdavka, thousands of men being essentially trapped and coming under enormous, relentless Russian fire, and of the Russians continuing advances and capturing one location after another, Now yesterday, they captured two major fortifications called the air defense base and the Chebaracha complex. Cheburesha is a cartoon character. It reflects how this place looks on a map.

But it seems to me that it's part of the air defense complex. I suspect it was a Soviet era air defense complex where surface-to-air missiles used to be based. My guess, I'm not going to waste time more on that. But anyway, the Russians captured those locations. It seems that the Ukrainian troops who were there were unable to retreat. Some attempted to, most of them either surrendered or got killed. There's reports that the fields around these places are littered with bodies. I mean, it really is distressing what you're hearing.

Then a couple of hours later, another Ukrainian fortified position called the filtration plant, also fell to the Russians. The Russians then captured a cafe area, which is located somewhere to the west of all of these places, shutting off another main road. They seem to be pushing hard towards further roads, closing off all the remaining roads. As I said, the Azov people who actually entered Afteska

are already themselves cut off. So as I said, the British Reuters, have it seems to be got this wrong or they're out of date? Right. A couple of questions. What comes after of Defka? I think that's an important situation to analyze because my understanding is that this is the last heavily fortified area. Are there fortified areas?

I'm not saying that there aren't areas that are being defended or fortified. but this was a fortress. So Bahmut, Ghan, Soledar, Gan, Marinka, Gan. Afdefka was the last big fortress that NATO had constructed over 10 years. I mean, this was their staging area for what would have been an eventual invasion into Dombas, which if you believe some of the reporting and some of the analysis from two years ago, that was that was what was eventually being planned. and it was all going to originate from Avedfka.

And of course, everyone knows that Avedfka was the city where many missiles were being sent from Avedvka into Dönetsk city. But what happens next after Avedka? I mean, the Russians are advancing on all fronts, actually. It's not only Avedka. It's across the entire front line. And going back to sending these units into Avedka, this elite Azov unit, Do you think this coincides a bit with the Munich Security Conference and the fact that it's rumored that Zelensky is going to be in Munich and perhaps they made one last effort to try and hold on to have Defka at least to get them through the conference and perhaps to get them through the votes in the Senate in the House for the 61 billion.

No vote is going to take place in the House. They're going to be in recess now until 20th February. But perhaps the stabilization was not so much a stable. but hold on for a week or two longer. You're absolutely right. Can I just say Zelensky is actually now in Berlin and he's definitely going to be unique. He's gone. And I mean, that in itself is astonishing.

I mean, you'd have thought that with a disaster, you know, taking place in Ukraine, you know, and with what looks increasingly like chaos in decision making, because it's coming back to your underlying question, it's becoming increasingly clear to me that the Ukrainians themselves are absolutely unclear what they should do in this situation because they've lost this major fortified line. But Zelensky's duty, so it seems to me, as president and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, was in the face of this catastrophe with thousands of Ukrainian troops being cut off. It was to remain in Kiev, take, assume responsibility, help the military people do whatever they can to stabilize the situation. But instead, he does what he

consistently does, is done in what he consistently does in these situations. When the situation becomes difficult, when it becomes dangerous, he leaves. He goes away. And, you know, What is he going to do in Berlin? What is he going to do in Munich? Which is going to help to stabilize the situation now. Now, let's come back, however, to your main question, because I think before we ask what the Ukrainians might try to do, let's just ask how this whole situation has come about.

Now, about two weeks ago, the Russians started to break into Avdavka itself. they were able to capture a large area in the south, one of the main Ukrainian fortifications, the Zahar's hunting lodge, was rapidly captured. It was clear even then that the situation in Avdaevka was becoming critical. Now, what the Ukrainians needed to do, and I, you know, this is not, you don't have to be a military person or a military, you know, expert to understand this. Remember, you know, I'm not one of these things. You're not one of these things. But lots of people were saying this.

They needed to pull their troops back from the outlying fortified positions, the air defense base, the filtration plant, all of those places. Bring them back to Afdaevka and then organize a fighting withdrawal from Afdaevka to save their men. They did exactly the opposite. They kept their men there. they engaged in counter-attacks, which were bound to fail. The Azov Brigade, the Third Brigade, was rushed to the scene. And what would have been a serious defeat is now starting to look like a catastrophe. So why did they do it?

Well, firstly, the Ukrainians, and it's easy to just blame Zelensky here. but one gets to sense that all the Ukrainian commander, Zelensky, Zaluzni, who has been in overall charge until a couple of days ago, Sirsky as well, the new commander, they all have this predisposition to try to defend positions after they become undefendable. And they did the same with Avdavka. They were no doubt conscious of the importance of Avdavka. And you're absolutely correct. It was the main, the most, heavily fortified position of all, and it was close to Donnet City, and it was important psychologically for the Ukrainians to control it, because controlling Udorfka meant that they

still had Donnet City under siege, and they might perhaps one day in their own imaginations hoped to launch an offensive from Ufdaevka to recapture Donnet City. So there were these emotional things. But fundamentally, I think you are absolutely right. They didn't want to lose Avdavka whilst these arguments in Congress was still underway. They did not want to lose Avdavka whilst the Munich Security Conference was about to happen. Because doing so would have looked like a major loss of face and white of fed doubts or so they feared in the West that, you know, Ukraine is losing the war and is going to

lose the war and that further Western aid to Ukraine is therefore sending good money after bad. So they clung on. In fact, they disastrously reinforced failure. And we have this chaotic situation that we see now. Now, there is a further thing, which is where we come back to your original question, because as they were not prepared to give up Avdavka

and seem unwilling to accept this major fortified position was collapsing, they seem to have done absolutely nothing to build proper fortified lines west of Avdewka. Now, any fortified lines they built west of Avdavka,

would anyway have been less strong than the ones they've just lost in Avdafka itself. They would have had to be improvised in a hurry, and given how strong the Russian military now is, as we see, it's debatable whether even these fortified lines, had they been built, would have been strong enough to resist the Russians. But the reality, the actual reality, is that it seems that no significant fortified lines west of Afdivka have been built at all. Now, we don't know this from the Russians, but Ukrainian soldiers and I say Ukrainian soldiers, I mean the Azov Brigade, the 47th Mechanized Brigade, which has been fighting in Avdaeca for a very long time. They've been selling back reports saying there are no fortifications in the area.

So it looks as if once Avdaevka falls, it's open territory, it's open ground for the Russians to advance further if that is what they choose to do. Now, I don't know what it is that the Russians plan to do. I mean, the other side of this story about Avdaevka is that. The Russian military is now working at full, you know, full range of its capacities and skills. They've conducted a masterly operation in Avdaevka. They've captured this place, despite the resistance of some of Ukraine's best troops, the 110th Brigade, the 47th Mechanized Brigade, the 3rd Azov Brigade. They are also massively outmatching the Ukrainians in firepower.

They're able to bomb Ukrainian fortifications, shell them. They are able to do things which we've never seen happen earlier in the war. And they've also acted with immense tactical skill, keeping the Ukrainians guessing all the time about where towards Adirka they're going to attack and attacking where the Ukrainians didn't expect them to attack. So all of this shows that the Ukrainians are up against a formidable adversary. The question is, what is this adversary now going to do? Are they going to push forward westwards from Afdefka towards other places like, say, the big town of Pakrovsk,

which lies a bit further west? Are they going to push north towards, you know, Apavlovrad? Are they simply going to stay where they are and attack somewhere else? We simply do not know. But whatever it is that the Russians do, Everything suggests now there's going to be carefully planned and structured in advance. And you're absolutely right.

Even as of D'Evka collapses, the Russians are applying pressure on every other part of the front lines. What happens at Munich now? What do you think happens at Munich? Now, the excuse is that the way they're coping with this, the collective West, you got a hint at that from Kirby's statement the other day, which is if only $61 billion was approved, then Avdefka would not have falling. That's basically how they're going to cope with all of this and how they're going to explain this away. What are your thoughts? Well, I mean, a few things to say about this. Firstly, I mean, the $61 billion is not going to change

the situation on the battlefronts. I mean, it cannot do because the critical things that Ukraine is now short of, first and foremost artillery shells. And by the way, not just, artillery shells, but artillery are not available in the West to be supplied to Ukraine. The same is true of air defence missiles. We've now had from Under Secretary Bush of the Pentagon, and it's been an interview he's given, which has received no attention at all in the Western media, even though he's a top Pentagon official. He's given us up-to-date figures, finally, shell production in the United States. And it's gone up from 14,000 rounds of 155 shells a month before the war started to 28,000 rounds a month now. Ukraine says it needs 6,000 rounds a day.

That is nowhere near enough. We know that the shell situation in Europe is catastrophic. We know that all the great shell, you know, arsenals have been catastrophically depleted. So, you know, past $61 billion, it's not going to provide Ukraine with more shells because the shells are not there. The same goes for air defense missiles. There's a general shortage throughout the West of air defense missiles. I mean, they're just talking about, you know, an air, you know, an air defense missiles. Defense Coalition. They've just announced that in Ramstein to provide Ukraine with air defense missiles. I thought they'd already announced that a year ago. I remember, you know, Osceola von der Leyen,

no less, talking about how, you know, this is a year ago, the importance of providing Ukraine with air defense systems. They've given Ukraine all the air defense systems, they realistically can. They're running short of missiles. Ukraine is running short of missiles, which enables the Russian Air Force now to operate across the eastern battlefields, essentially it will. So it simply isn't realistic to say, just give them $61 billion, and that's going to change the situation. You're simply throwing money at a problem rather than dealing with the underlying essential problem. The British have admit it they have no artillery left. I mean, this is an astonishing admission that I read in the Daily Telegraph that the British Army has no artillery. It's got no guns. It's got no shells.

And the same, it seems, is true of most of the other European militaries as well. And the United States does, but it has a multiplicity of other commitments around the world, notably the one in the Middle East. What this whole story is, this thing about the $61 billion, it's just an alibi behind which Western governments are hiding as the situation in Ukraine turns to catastrophe and in order to draw attention away from their own catastrophic decision making, which we have seen throughout this war. And I just finish here by saying, that there were shells that could have been given to Ukraine last year. About half a million shells bought from South Korea.

Americans bought half a million shells from South Korea, ruining South Korea's otherwise good relations with Russia, by the way. And all of those shells were squandered over the course of Ukraine's summer offensive. Ukraine ran out of shells in August. The United States at that point had to start supplying Ukraine with cluster shells, if we remember. So the shell crisis long predates the problems in Congress that we're talking and hearing about now. They've admitted that they don't have the shells and they're not capable of matching Russia with shell production because, they've announced this plan of one million drones, the UK and the EU partners.

To me, I look at that as an admission that we can't make shells, we can't match the Russians on shells, but forget about the shells. Don't worry about shells. We've got a new plan. We're going to make a million drones. This is nonsense. It is absolute nonsense. You're completely correct.

I mean, this is just lurching from one stupidity to another. A million drones. I mean, can I just say but some estimates, the Russians are now producing something like 10,000 drones a day. I'm just saying, I mean, you know, already they are industrially producing drones

on a colossal scale. But all right, put that aside. You know, I'm not going to dwell on the Russian figures because there's always uncertainties about those. I mean, the drones are not going to make a difference on the battlefields. We've been hearing for weeks now

about how Ukraine is able to use FPV drones to substitute for artillery. We've just seen that entire theory collapse in Afghanistan. And if the Europeans are able to make a million drones, which is, I mean, no other promise they've made about supplying Ukraine with weapons. They've been able to keep. But if they supplied those drones, it won't make it. any difference. Drones carry a very small explosive charge. The Russians are showing a great ability to jam them. They require extremely skilled operators of which Ukraine has fewer and fewer

because the Russians are hunting them on the battlefields. And they can't do the things that artillery does. This is obvious. Yeah, Ukraine is out of artillery. They're out of air defense. And the $61 billion is not going to buy you soldiers either. I mean, I'm reading more and more reports about the catastrophic state of Ukraine's military conscription. They don't really talk about the mobilization or conscription much anymore either. And we're talking about just a demographic collapse.

This is actually... 61 billion can't fix this. No, 61 billion can't fix this. As you correctly said, it won't buy you soldiers either. And since we just touched on the question of mobilization, I mean, I've been reading comments made by Ukrainian analysts and political, you know, political figures. And they're saying that there's half a million men that Zelensky and Zoluzni were talking about,

you needed to be called up. They don't exist. Ukraine can't conscript that many people, not at this late stage of the war. They're suggesting that somewhere between 100 and 200,000 might be the most that Ukraine would be able to conscript with the available resources. But all the people who really were capable of fighting have already been conscripted and the units that they served in have been shattered. on the battlefields.

And what you would be conscripting now would be very young men in their 20s. If you had the time to train them, you might make soldiers out of them. But training soldiers who have no experience of war takes roughly a year, apparently, if they're to survive in modern combat, Ukraine doesn't have a year.

A final question or comment. I thought that I'm having with this $61 billion. The goal from the Biden White House is to try and get this past November 2024. You can see that they're starting to worry that they're not going to accomplish this goal. I mean, Kirby's statement yesterday, you can see that Kirby was shaken. He was in a panic. Yes. The $61 billion, obviously, it's not going to get you millions of 1-55-m-shells.

I mean, that's obvious. If they had these shells there, they would have already gone to Ukraine. You're not going to get these shells just because you give $61 billion to Ukraine. Is the $61 billion? Was it really meant to keep Zelensky in power from the standpoint of keeping the government up and running, paying pensions, paying salaries, paying the parliament members, the oligarchs, just keeping everyone well-fed for at least six months. months, even though the military is being annihilated, at least keep the political situation somewhat stable. And then you can have the collapse happen in November. And now they're worried that Zelensky's position now may be in serious trouble. And I imagine they're going to discuss that in Munich. I just try to, I guess my question to you, what I'm trying to get out of you is, is, you know, obviously the 61 million,

61 billion didn't do anything from a military level. So what really was this 61 billion about, once you take out the 10% for the big guy and all of the corruption, all that stuff, once you get down to a certain number, say 50 billion, was that just really about keeping the political situation stable while the military situation collapses and now you're going to have political

and military situation. collapsing at the same time? You know, that might make some sense if you were dealing with people who have a realistic understanding of the war. Now, this 61 billion package for Ukraine, it's important to remember. It dates from the fall. They were talking about this way back in the autumn already at the time when Zelensky was visiting the United States, which, from memory, was either in September or October.

And I think at that time, if it was still, Ukraine's so-called offensive was still underway, it wasn't clear that the Russians would almost immediately, as soon as the offensive, petered out, themselves go on the attack. There has been this consistent underestimation of Russian military capabilities. and I think they thought that they had more time than they really do. I think they thought that probably things were quiet and down through the winter, that the war would resume in the spring. You give Ukraine $61 billion.

The Europeans give the Ukrainians $55 billion euro package over four years, which is another $12 billion, basically, this year. And that keeps the whole thing. in Ukraine ticking along until the November election and ticking along economically, obviously, because without the funding from the United States, there is a massive hole in Ukraine's budget. But also, I suspect they did think that they'd be able to hold things back militarily as well. They didn't really believe that the Russians would go on the offensive in the way that they did. On the contrary, I suspect that there was still some hopes.

This is, you know, back in the early autumn, that this Krenki operation, which by the way has now apparently been entirely called off, it seems the one thing that Siersky has done is that he's told the Ukrainian command to evacuate all the remaining troops of Krenki. And that might even already have happened. But anyway, there was probably some hope back in the early autumn that that might actually amount to something and might give the Russians problem. But they have consistently underestimated the Russians. This has been the story of the war, right from almost the first day. And it's now caught up with them. And you're absolutely right. Kirby looked like he was panicking. And I get the sense that the US is panicking altogether now. They're starting to realize that they don't have the time that they thought they did, that things really are starting to fall apart. even faster than they assume. Yeah. All right. My final thought there on the U.S. panic is, you know, just take the L, let the media run

with this story for a month, and then people will forget about it. Europe, Europe is in a much different situation, but, you know, Europe is going to still be dependent on the U.S. because the EU has nowhere to go. They have nowhere to go. So no matter how angry or distrustful they are of the United States, you know, the EU is. United States or they say the U.S. is unreliable or whatever, they have nowhere to go. So they're going to be dependent on the U.S. no matter what. The best thing the Biden White House could do is take the L. Take the criticism for a month. And eventually you own the media. So, you know, the media

will work through the cycle of the Ukraine law. And that'll be that. And this fear about Europe, not having trust in the U.S. allies nonsense. The Europeans, they're 100% subordinate and owned by the United States. So they're not going to go anywhere. That would be my advice to the Biden White House. What would it be yours?

I mean, what would you say? You are absolutely right. I mean, you know, what did Biden, what did Putin say to Tucker Carlson? You cannot win a propaganda battle against the United States. The United States owns the entire international media. When he meant what he was talking about the United States,

he was talking about the Biden administration and his friends. You know, the best thing politically that could happen now for the Biden administration is that Speaker Johnson maintains his position. The House does not vote this appropriation. This procedural mechanism that people are talking about to try and override his decision. Just forget about it. Let this, put all the blame on the Republicans. Tell everybody, you know, the $61 billion would have made all the difference.

It wouldn't have done. But, you know, you can get your media friends to obscure all of that. When the collapse happens, blame the Republicans of Trump and just move on. And, you know, by November in the United States, all of this would be forgotten. You know, it's absolutely the case. I was doing actually an amazing article, one of the few good articles that sometimes that you still appear,

which is in the Financial Times, which has made exactly this point, that ultimately the United States is completely secure. It's surrounded by seas and oceans. All these wars happen far away. They don't affect U.S. territory. They don't affect directly the U.S. economy. The U.S. could just sail through a debacle in Ukraine.

and, you know, all that matters, therefore, is public relations management, which is something that these guys excel in. They would be playing to their strengths. As for the Europeans, well, they're, you know, they're stuffed. I mean, they burnt all their bridges with the Russians. They cut themselves off from Russian oil. gas. They're still pressing on with further rounds of sanctions against the Russians. They're bullying and blackmailing. The only politicians in Europe, people like Orban, who speak sense.

They've got nowhere to go. They are completely, completely on limb with this one. If the United States walks away, they've got nowhere to go. And, They can't get their military production organized. They can't get their defense systems sorted out. It's a fantasy to think that they ever will. All right. The duran. Dot locals.com.

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