The Duran Podcast - Balochistan; Pakistan-Iran strikes. Saudi Arabia prepares Gaza peace plan

Episode Date: January 21, 2024

Balochistan; Pakistan-Iran strikes. Saudi Arabia prepares Gaza peace plan

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in the Middle East. Joe Biden was asked about the missile strikes against the Houthis. If they're yielding any results, and he was like, no, are the strikes going to continue? And he's like, yes. So, I mean, just crazy stuff coming from Biden. I guess a little bit of truth, actually, coming from Biden. What is the situation going on in Yemen? what is the situation going on with Iran.

We did have these missile strikes, this exchange of fire between Iran and Pakistan. And the war in Gaza, Netanyahu, since we're talking about truth, Netanyahu coming out with a statement, which, I mean, he just says it all, I guess, just came out with it. I think everyone's very shocked with what Netanyahu admitted

about the goals and the plans that he has for Gaza. Well, absolutely. Now, let's come back to Nurtanyahu in a moment. Let's look at the general situation in the Middle East. The war in Gaza continues. There is no sign of any real slackening of the war. The Israelis have had to withdraw large numbers of troops from Gaza. But there's increasing signs that a lot of those troops are being deployed to northern Israel

with the intention of starting a new war against Hezbollah. So, you know, the situation on Israel's northern board becoming increasingly tense. There are more strikes on the Houthis. I think they've now launched four missile strikes on the Houthis. Exactly, as you said, those missile strikes have achieved precisely nothing. They've achieved nothing at all. The Houthis continue to launch attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. They've taken pot shots at American warships.

far thankfully without success because to my mind if an American warship is hit we're in a very dangerous situation indeed but the situation there hasn't improved in the slightest on the contrary it is deteriorating now we had those Iranian missile strikes on a bill that we discussed in a recent program we explained in a program how this was a very carefully calibrated warning and at the same time, you know, a message. We have the means to defend ourselves. We have the ability to, you know, strike back if we are ourselves attacked. And now we've had a very disturbing development indeed, which isn't getting the attention that it deserves. Firstly, Iran launches an attack on some people,

terrorist groups, as it says, in Pakistani-controlled Balochistan. The Pakistani military then launches a counter-strike on people it says are terrorists in Iranian-controlled Balutistan. Apparently, this is an area which is difficult to control and not formally, fully controlled by either government, by either government. But the key thing to take away from this is that neither the Iranians nor the Pakistanis informed the other in advance that they were going to launch the strikes. Both the Iranians and the Pakistanis have gone out of their way to say, you know, we're not seeking to attack Pakistan or Iran. This isn't about this is an interstate thing.

this is attacking these terrorist bases in these two countries. I think we can disregard that in the sense that if that had actually been the case, the Iranians would have discussed their attack with the Pakistanis, and the Pakistanis would have discussed their attack with the Iranians. That clearly didn't happen, and the Pakistani attack is clearly a retaliation against Iran. So what is going on? suspect that the Iranians are seeing a buildup of some kind of militia or terrorist or insurgency force in Pakistani-controlled Balutistan. The current government of Pakistan is the government

that basically gained power following the fall of Imran Khan. Many people see it as an essentially American creation and as an ally of the United States. States. It has supplied 155mm shells to Ukraine, for example, though it still seeks to have good relations with Russia. But I think the Iranians probably feel that this government is now working with the Americans and that these forces that are being built up in Pakistani-Balutistan are a threat to itself and are part of whatever plan the Americans. might have against Iran in the event that there's missile strikes on Iran and a wider war in the Middle East. So the Iranians struck and hit these bases and the Pakistanis were then decided that

they would hit back because clearly they are invested in protecting these people whoever they are. So that's how I read this situation. It is part of the overall deterioration of the security and military situation in the Middle East. And it's very dangerous. It shows you that the storm clouds are gathering and that the pressure on Iran is now coming from various sides. Now, into all of this mix comes MBS, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, who is also the Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia. And what we're hearing is that he's about to float apparently an enormously elaborate peace plan. And the peace plan basically offers Israel recognition from Saudi Arabia and from other Arab states

in return for diplomatic recognition of the Palestine Authority as a Palestinian state with its status as a full member of the United Nations. Diplomatic recognition also, by the way, by Israel as well. That is what I understand. And further moves towards making, building up, creating a Palestinian state. This is as well as, of course, a ceasefire in Gaza. Now, for Netanyahu, that is anathema. For members of his coalition, that is anathema. It is something that perhaps they are more frightened of than almost anything else.

Netanyahu is actually boasting of the fact that he has made the creation of a Palestinian state impossible. And that is why he is now coming up with all of this belligerent rhetoric. And of course, the risk is that if MBSI, peace plan begins to gain traction if the BRICS states that the Russians and the Chinese bracket, which I am sure they will, by the way. Then that will make people on Netanyahu the hardliners in the Israeli government

and of course the neocons in Washington even more determined to escalate the situation in the Middle East because from their point of view, they have to find some way to prevent this peace plan that MBS is putting together from gaining further traction, including in the UN. So you can see the game, the kind of game that is being played. Yeah, the question is if they're going to be parts of the U.S. government that are going to back this peace plan. I mean, there's going to be parts that are going to be against this peace plan, obviously, the neocons and these guys.

But I wonder if there's going to be parts of the U.S. government that are going to go for this type of plan because it does provide a key element which the U.S. has been pushing for, which is the Saudi Israel recognition. Yes. Well, it's also a way out for the United States. I mean, it's an off-ramp. Think about it. I mean, that's basically what MBS is trying to offer the Americans. He says, look, you're heading to a regional war. That's going to be a disaster for everybody. It's going to be a disaster. It's not going to be good for us. but it's going to be incredibly bad for you. Now, let's move forward.

Let's get a ceasefire in Gaza, moves towards establishing a Palestinian state, proper negotiations, diplomatic recognition for the Palestinians, all that sort of thing. And let's take a trajectory of peace. And you can walk away, and, you know,

you can walk away from the Middle East with your reputation, sort of intact. You've not been globally humiliated. So this is what MBS is offering them. And I think there are some people in Washington who would say, let's take it. I think even Blinken in his more sensible moments can see the attractions of this. But of course, as you absolutely rightly say, there are many others who will be dead against. And up to this point, the US government, the Biden administration has not been prepared to put the kind of political pressure on Netanyahu and on the government of Israel that might lead them to agree to a project like this.

So Netanyahu is coming up with these incredible statements, these very belligerent and aggressive statements, these statements about the Palestinians, which in the context of the case currently before the ICJ, I think it's, again, incredibly reckless, to say it frankly. But you can see why, because everything that he has stood for for the last 20 years is now at risk. The Americans go along with a plan like this. If it goes to the UN, if it's supported at the General Assembly and at the Security Council, if a diplomatic process is initiated, if there is recognition of a Palestinian state and Palestine takes its place at the UN as a full voting member,

of the UN for Netanyahu and for the other hardliners in Israel, they will see this not just as a disaster, but as an existential challenge to the kind of project in Israel that they have been following. So they're bound to oppose it. And the government, the Biden administration in Washington up to now, has shown no ability to rein them in. and of course they have their political allies in Washington. People who, by the way, might not be particularly concerned about Israel.

I think we need to say this. They're not so much focused on Israel. It's that they want their war with Iran. So they will oppose this. They will say this is unacceptable to Israel. But the reason they will oppose it is because ultimately they don't want peace in the Middle East. They want their war with Iran. Yeah, absolutely.

They're focused on that war because, as we've said many times, this is the closest they've ever come actually getting that war. And the stuff that Netanyahu said is, you know, when I read his statements, he has proven all of the, the analysis over the past two months as to why this is happening in Gaza, he's proven that that analysis to be correct. I agree. You know, I mean, he, yeah, he's not doing, he's not doing himself or Israel any favors by by coming out and saying what he said, especially in, in relation to what you said, the ICJ case with South Africa. They must have been looking at these statements and just been like, well, there you have it. There it is.

Yes. I mean, it's coming from the prime minister. He said our, he's, he said our whole case. He said it all. Yeah, exactly. I mean, this is what I feel myself. But for him to have come, come out and said these things now, you can see why. As I said, he's aware that MBS is coming up with his peace proposal.

And to be frank, for him blocking that proposal, is far more important than worrying about what goes on in the ICJ. There's an ICJ order calling on Israel to restrain itself. Well, he'll just ignore it and carry on exactly as he's done, and he'll expect the Americans to support him in doing that, and European governments to do the same. And he knows that there isn't going to be a final judgment from the ICJ for many years, and perhaps any way he hopes that the ICJ won't make that.

decision because, well, we all know that all the pressures are there behind the scenes and there is procedural problems with the case, which we've touched on in previous programmes. So he's all worried about that. He's much more focused on stopping the plan that MBS is putting together from gaining traction. Now, for him, he will see it as an existential threat. So will some of the people in his cabinet. And the NIRCONS in Washington, by contrast, will see it as an opportunity. The people of Israel, their interests, of course, by this, are not being served at all. But I would go further, and I would say that the entire policy that the Israeli government has followed since October has not really served Israeli interests. And the policy that has been followed

by the Washington administration hasn't served Israeli interests either, not Israel's true interests, which would have been far better served if Israel had taken a completely different line, one that we've discussed in previous programs. Yeah, it does seem like the diplomacy line that, that Israel should have followed is the exact line that, that Bricks, Saudi Arabia, being a member of Bricks, South Africa, being a member of Bricks, this is the line that they've been following in order to try and find a way to de-escalate this and wind this conflict down. They've been working the diplomatic channels very hard. And something tells me like the coordination that is taking place, the Saudi Arabia plan, the BRICS, ICJ, everything that has been happening in the UN with the

resolutions from UAE and Russia. It just, it seems like there is a coordination taking place between all of these countries to try and, and somehow get this, this off ramp and get to a point where Netanyahu is left with no other options other than to scale this thing down. is exactly correct. I mean, there is clearly an enormous amount of coordination going on. It's not a coincidence that South Africa brings this application to the ICJ, and of course, South Africa is a brick state, and that Brazil, Russia and China are clearly working together at the Security Council and in the General Assembly, and that the Saudis are coming up with this peace plan now, and Saudi Arabia is, well, apparently it's joined the British,

that some people say that it's not formally joined it quite yet. But all of this going on, there's clearly a huge amount of coordination going on. And I'm going to say something. When MBS's plan is finally published, it will get overwhelming international support. I mean, the whole world will stack up behind it. There will be just a few governments that might oppose it. I mean, this is something I think people do need to understand. And if the administration, in the end, blocks it, there's going to be very grave consequences, indeed.

And if, because the plan is blocked, we see an escalation and a war in the Middle East, a lot of countries around the world are going to directly say that the Americans not only wrecked, the best chance for peace in the Middle East, but are in fact the bringers of war, not just to the Middle East, but to the whole world. You can see how all of this is fitting exactly into the kind of narrative. I don't like to use the word narrative here, but I think this is the comment word.

The arguments, if you prefer, that the Russians, the Chinese, increasingly the Indians also, by the way, are making about American policy. All right. We will end it there, the durand.com. We are on Rumble,

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