The Duran Podcast - Battle for Pokrovsk nears its end

Episode Date: October 26, 2025

Battle for Pokrovsk nears its end

All right, Alexander, let's do a military update as to what is happening on the front lines in Ukraine. What is the situation going on in Pachrosk? What is the situation going on in Hirsson? A lot of people talking about something in Herson going on and the other areas on the front line. Well, the big one is Pachrosk. And I think this has been clearly the big battle since about late August, September, when the Russians began to launch their major effort to try to capture Pakkrovsk. Parkrovsk, as we've discussed in many places, it's an important road junction, it's a big town in itself.

Its capture further opens the way for the Russians to advance west to the deeper and to advance northward to basically encircle or outflank Russian Ukrainian positions elsewhere. in Donbass, in the cities there. It looks as if we are probably at the, almost at the end in Pachrosk. Ukrainian resistance is said to be collapsing. The latest reports were that the Ukrainians are now pulling back, that they're withdrawing from most of Pakrosk, and also from the adjoining town of Mernograd, which is basically a big suburb of Pakrosk.

And it looks as if this battle is going to be over within the next couple of days, week, two weeks. Who knows exactly, but it is basically over. And that is going to have consequences. It's one of the last big pieces on the Donbass chessboard that remained to be taken. it has, it's about to be taken. That leaves basically three places left, three big places left. Slaviansk Kramatos, Konstantinovka. Of those three, Konstantinivka, fighting is already apparently,

is not apparently, is taking place inside Konstantinovka. If you look at the map, it is impossible to defend Konstantinvka. if you lose Pachrosk, if you lose Konstantinovka, that leaves only two places, Slaviansk, Kramatosk, the Russians are also gradually tightening their positions to the north of these places as well. Kupiansk, Liemann, Sivask, it's all basically about Slaviansk, Kramatosk. You could see that this is the Battle of Dormvars is now finally, after, So, you know, two tough years of a Russian offensive. The Russian offensives to capture Dombas began in October 23 after the Ukrainian counterattack was defeated.

After two tough years of fighting, we're coming close to the point when it ends. Now, elsewhere, the Russians advancing in Zaporosia towards the city of Zaporosia. on the river. Of course, they say Zaporosia is part of Russia. And we have these very tantalizing claims, apparently confirmed by Ukrainians, undoubtedly confirmed by Russian officials, but not verified completely by film that there is something going on in Herson, that the Russians have crossed the Nipa and are now again in Herson in some form. It's very difficult to understand exactly what is going on there. Maybe they're trying to gain positions ahead of the, you know, a further, stronger offensive later in the winter or even the spring. I am not absolutely sure,

but it does look as if something is taking place there too. What happens after Pachrosk? Well, as I said, what happens after Pachrosk is that the battle for the remainder of Donbass takes place. And there isn't that much. I mean, Trump said that the Russians control 78% of Donetsk. I think it's slightly more than that actually. But if Pachrosk is lost, then the remaining 20, 19% becomes undefendable. It will only take time. I mean, and not very long, by the way.

In fact, logically, if Ukraine was running this war in a rational war, way, they would withdraw. But of course, they're not withdrawn. So, I mean, this may have been, you know, this whole narrative about Ukraine withdrawing from Dombas in order to get a ceasefire on the other front lines. It may be that this was proposed by someone because they could see that Ukraine was about to lose Dombas. And the fact is that is going to be overtaken by events because it looks like Donbass is going to be lost anyway. As I said, it is only a match of time. And probably not that long.

I mean, the Russians have had to fight a whole series of very complicated and difficult sieges in heavy urban territory to get there. So, you know, Solidar, Pachmert, Torez, Avdaevka, Krasnogorvka, now Pakrovsk, although. these other places, Kourapovar, Zolidav, all of those places. Now, Pachrovsk is a big piece, is a big piece. Beyond that, there really isn't, there's two big pieces left, Slaviansk, Kramatsosk, but they will fall. What's going on with the energy facilities? Russia continues to strike energy infrastructure. Are they still trying to take out bridges? Are they still trying to take out railway

links? Bridges, railway links, warehouses, industrial facilities. Are they going to leave the, I mean, do you think the plan with the energy facilities is going to be like what Russia did a couple of years ago, which is to take them to the brink of collapse and then back off? Or do you think they're going to ramp things up? Well, this is where the diplomacy has always been the confusing factor. Because if we go back to 2020, 22, 23, 23, 24, 24, 25, those winters, the Russians didn't take it to the point of collapse, perhaps because they didn't, they lack the means to. I suspect they did have the means, but they didn't do it then,

perhaps because they felt to do so was premature in some ways, and there might have been some scope for diplomacy. I don't think now that all diplomatic routes have been effectively exhausted. They have that incentive anymore. To make a very important point, which I think many people don't understand, the Russians captured Dombas, the main leverage Ukraine and the West had over the Russians in terms of ending the war is gone. because the Russians had to capture Dombas in order to achieve their objectives in the special military operation.

So that provided a scope for negotiation, if you like. You could train Dombas for other things. If Dombas falls, the Russians have set outlawed a whole list of other things that they want to see happen in terms of objectives in the special military operation. and presumably, if I definitely, those will then come into focus. And without the leverage that Donbass provided, without the shield that Donbass provided, even the Institute for the Study of War now admits that Donbass was the great shield that Ukraine had, the incentive for the Russians to slow down goes. And the incentive of the Russians to negotiate at all is much reduced because what at that point does Ukraine still have left to trade?

It just becomes a question of Russian demands from this point on. Demands which Ukraine can't satisfy without a complete change of the political systems in Ukraine itself. And Medvedevich, of course, has been talking about the need for real. regime change in Kiev for a long time. Lavrov is now saying the same. Well, it takes away the leverage from the United States as well, right? Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, this is their war. This is Trump's war. So he loses leverage as well when Donetsk is fully captured. Absolutely. And this is, of course, where the whole business of telling Trump that everything is fine, the Ukraine's are actually winning, the Russians are suffering a massive loss.

It's 100,000 men killed just over the course of 2025, figures that are plucked out of the air like that. The loss ratio is 5 to 1 in Ukraine's favor. All of that. That is where that whole thing has come because people have tried to get Trump to understand or to believe, rather, not understand, to believe that he doesn't have to surrender Dombas. Now, what he's going to find is that that whole line of diplomacy has gone because the Russians are going to take it anywhere. Apparently somebody, Bance, Wickoff, who knows? Apparently, according to the British media, somebody tried to explain this to Trump some time ago, that there is really no point in backing Zelensky over withdrawal from Donald.

Vass because the Ukrainians are going to lose it anyway. But Trump obviously didn't take that seriously and didn't listen. And at some point over the next few months, he's going to find that his major leverage over the Russians has gone. Yeah, he's going to take a big L in Ukraine. He's going to take a big O in a lot of areas when it comes to foreign policy. A lot of areas. It's going to be a very rough next year for Trump when it comes to foreign policy. I'm by your view, actually, and I'm going to say this. I think next year is going to be difficult for Trump altogether. I think that there are great issues in the economy as well.

There's likely to be a judgment against him at the Supreme Court over tariffs. This is the rumor. This is apparently where the direction of travel is going. He's antagonized China. He's infuriated Russia. and Barras Putin, I think a lot of things are going to come together next year. And the battles in Donbass are going to be just one of them. Yeah.

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