The Duran Podcast - Biden challenges Texas, seeks to unlock Ukraine funds

Episode Date: January 27, 2024

Biden challenges Texas, seeks to unlock Ukraine funds

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Texas and the standoff between Governor Abbott, Texas and the Biden White House. And Governor Abbott, he made his rounds on media yesterday, and he said, look, he's not backing down. He said Texas is going to hold the line. They're going to continue to protect the border, continue to play. the bobwire on the border. And the Biden White House, they gave Texas 24 hours to to not continue to fortify the board.

I mean, the Supreme Court ruling is an injunction against the barbed wire. And it leaves it, I guess the Supreme Court just leaves it open to the Biden White House. Do you want to send people to Texas and start to remove the barbed wire? you can do that. Effectively, that was the Supreme Court decision.

I'm simplifying it, but that was pretty much it. And, you know, Texas said we're going to continue to place this barbed wire. And the Biden White House, under enormous pressure from other Democrats, they're saying, no, you have to stop. And the big question that everyone has is, you know, when these 24 hours, when this warning is up, will the Biden White House federalize the National Guard of Texas? will they actually make a move to get the National Guard to start to remove this Bobwire and these fortifications? And that's where we are.

But Texas has gotten a lot of support from a lot of governors. Last count was 25. 26 states have actually signed a joint letter in support of the actions of Abbott. And we now have the Republicans. and there are reports that Mitch McConnell held a meeting with the Republican senators. And he said that this action from Texas changes the dynamic of the linkage between the funding of the border and Ukraine. This meeting that McConnell called was about Ukraine, about getting the consensus to fund Ukraine. because there are divisions about funding Ukraine.

And he told the GOP members, well, we have divisions in funding Ukraine, but now with what's happened to the border, the fact that these two things have been linked up, you know, this calls into question the entire strategy of linking these two policies up. And it looks like we might have a change in the linkage of funding for Ukraine And the border end, McConnell also said that the issue of the border is something that Trump, who is emerging, most definitely will be the GOP candidate. This is an issue that Trump is running hard on, is border security.

And so that plays into all of this as well. So there's much more to this than just protecting the border, though that's the key part to all of this. but there's Project Ukraine, there's the presidential campaign, there's Trump in his campaign, and there's the question mark about what does Biden do now during an election? Does he go after Texas during an election? That's a huge risk. What are your thoughts? Indeed, can I just say a few things?

I mean, the first thing I want to say is this. I'm not going to second guess the reasoning, the decision of the Supreme Court. I mean, I haven't read the judgment, and I'm not going to say whether the Supreme Court was right or wrong in making the decision that he did. My gut instinct tells me that they were wrong, but that's my own view. I mean, I'm not going to argue that point too hard. What I will say is the Chief Justice Roberts by siding with the liberal justices on this matter. perhaps was hoping to you know what he always does you know tilt the Supreme Court sometimes towards the administration sometimes against it he may have been thinking that he was going to tilt it

in favour of the administration what he's actually done is that he's landed the administration Biden in a whole lot of trouble because this decision as you correctly say is being rejected by Texas. Twenty-five states, as I understand, have come out and have supported Texas. So that's a majority of the states. And every single opinion poll that I have seen shows that immigration is a very, very big issue now for Americans. So what does the Biden administration do. If they comply with this order of the Supreme Court, if they decide to enforce this injunction, if they federalize the Texas National Guard, then in effect they're taking control of the Texas National Guard, presumably in order to bring the barbed wire down. Now that, it seems to me, is an absolutely

disastrous look going forward in an election. I mean, it would be a terrible look going forward in an election. People who care about immigration and feel angry and worried about immigration, they're going to say, here's the federal government going into Texas, the one state that's trying to do something about this issue, because the federal government isn't doing anything about it. Kamala Harris, who's the board at Tsar, is absent without leave. and has been ever since she was appointed. The Biden administration, Biden himself, seems to be intensely relaxed about this vast flow of people across the border.

The rest of the administration also is. Most of the Democratic Party leadership seemed to be. I mean, it would be a disastrous look. If they take the wire down, and if he takes control of the Texas National Guard, but leaves the wire up or leaves the wire where it is. Well, that will also be a crazy look because, I mean, first of all, why in that case take control of the Texas National Guard?

And I can't help but think that that will upset and anger a lot of a lot of the Democratic Party's base. So this is, I didn't think Justice Roberts, Chief Justice Roberts, thought of it in this way. but from the perspective of the Biden administration, this was the worst possible outcome. I mean, it's put them in a very, very difficult position indeed. And I think in a kind of a way, it does tie heavily into the issue of funding for Ukraine. because I think that most Republicans probably now oppose funding for Ukraine.

I'm talking about Republicans in the country. But if you're talking about the Republican political leadership, they now have this big problem, which is what Mitch McConnell was basically talking about. Donald Trump wants to run in the election very much on the issue of immigration and the border. This is for him the big. single issue of all. And Trump is also saying, I'm not in favour of any deal, linking funding for

Ukraine to the issue of the border, because from my point of view, the border is so important, and I, of course, also oppose funding for Ukraine. So what Mitch McConnell is saying is, look, if we continue with this linkage policy that we followed up to now, we are in effect undermining the man who is going to be our candidate for the presidency in November. And that we can't realistically do. If we go down that road, we will highlight to the country, the split within the Republican Party. So we are going to have to support Trump on the border issue. and that means we're going to have to support Texas on the border issue as well.

And at the same time, and I think this is the other thing that he's trying to find a way around, it also changes the dynamic about funding for Ukraine because our candidate also is opposed to funding for Ukraine. So how can we now give Biden what we want on funding for Ukraine when our candidate is saying that he opposes it? So I think this is what McConnell is now saying. And you can see how the two primary votes, the one in Iowa and the one in New Hampshire, have moved the dial politically in the United States, and how at the same time they're starting to affect national policy. Simply through his wins, Trump is changing the political weather.

I doubt myself that Texas would have taken the stand it has, had it not known that he would have Trump support and through Trump would have the support of the other Republican states and of the Republican Party. So Trump is already changing the political weather in the United States. And just to conclude on this, my own take on this, and I might be wrong, understanding Mitch McConnell is a nightmare, which I don't want to spend too much time trying to do, and understanding American congressional politics is also incredibly difficult.

But my own sense is that it has now become, a lot less likely that the Republicans in Congress will agree to provide funding for Ukraine, because Trump is known to oppose it. Yeah, that was the question I was going to ask you, is how likely do you think funding for Ukraine will be now? Is there a way, one final question, we'll wrap the video up, is there a way that McConnell and Graham and Mitt Romney, people that we know are absolutely want to get the 61 billion to Ukraine. Is there a way that they can

unlink, delink the border issue with Ukraine and somehow get consensus with the GOP Senate and possibly even Johnson in the House in order to get the money to Ukraine in time as well, because Ukraine has a time issue as well. I mean, you know, they have maybe until March, April, and then we're talking about perhaps a speedy collapse of the Ukraine government, the Olensky administration. Is there a way that you can conceptualize that you can think of that McConnell may maneuver to pull this off? Because in the GOP, you do have McConnell, Graham, Romney, a lot of GOP, Neal, cons who are absolutely dedicated to Project Ukraine. But to be fair, in the Senate, you also have a lot of Republican senators who are becoming

more vocal about the resistance to give money to Ukraine. J.D. Vance, Rand Paul. You can see that they're feeling more confident in voicing their opposition to giving money to Ukraine. While at the same time, they are saying, we need to secure the border. Don't link Ukraine to the border. the border takes precedent over everything else and Ukraine, forget about it. Let's not even discuss it. I mean, do you see maneuvering from McConnell or is this thing heading for

a defeat? No, I think at the moment it is heading for defeat, but never underestimate Mitch McConnell. I mean, he's a, whatever else he is, he's an extremely devious man, and he knows how to pull strings. And he is, you know, the most effective wire pull. in Washington. I say that. I mean, I should make it absolutely clear that I don't like Mitch McComb. Just to make that absolutely up. This isn't an endorsement of him. It is simply an acknowledgement of his very real political skills. But I think that if you are going to ask me, you know, can he do it? I think the answer is possibly he can. But I think it is, less and less likely that he will.

Because for McConnell, the single most important thing is not, he's not even winning the election, it's not Ukraine winning its war, it's not control of the border, it is control of the Republican Party, at least specifically the Republican Party in Congress and the mechanisms of patronage that go with that.

And I think that he senses that if he goes against Trump at this time, when the Republican Party is now closing ranks around Trump and is doing so in every single place. I mean, I think if New Hampshire had been tighter, I mean, it was a decisive double-digit win by Trump in New Hampshire against the best, funded and strongest candidate that the McConnell wing of the party could find, who was Nikki Haley. Anyway, given the fact that the Republican Party is increasingly closing ranks against Donald Trump, given that within the Senate, amongst Republicans in the Senate, he now has a very strong potential adversary, who is J.D. Vance. And I mean, I think J.D. Vance is looking increasingly more impressive by the day. and I can easily imagine how he could mount a challenge to McConnell's leadership of the Republican Party in the Senate. I think that McConnell is going to say to himself, look, to get Ukraine, it's far away.

I can live with Zelenskyy, you know, losing. The border issue is important. That is what our own people care about. and I'm not going to just hand over the entire Republican Party to Donald Trump by going against him on these issues where he is popular and potentially losing my position as leader of the Republican caucus in the Senate in the way that Kevin McCarthy lost control of the Republican caucus in the House. So I think that is probably my what McConnell is saying to him,

at the present time. But never underestimate him. There's always a chance he might come up with something. He is a neocon, his fingernails. So, you know, it's possible that he will come up with something. But I think it's become less important to him now. I think it's more likely that he will do, that he will go along for the time being

with what Trump wants and bide his time. And then if, you know, Ukraine unravels, If Trump loses the election in November, and I've been reading articles in National Review, which is, you know, the rhino publication, and they clearly wanted to lose the election in November, then McConnell calculates to himself, well, we can then blame the loss of Ukraine and the defeat in November

on Donald Trump, and we can get our party back. I think that's probably more McConnell's thinking. I mean, you know, again, this is my take on him. You know, I can't read his mind, but that's my best take on the calculations he's probably making it this time. Yeah, just the final thought. It's amazing how this one decision from Texas

has changed everything. Where you didn't see it coming, or at least, you know, you knew that there was a huge problem, but on the, border and it's been building up. But this one decision from Abbott and from Texas, and the people of Texas, I do believe that there is a majority in Texas that is supporting Abbott, a strong majority. I could be wrong about that, but the way it looks like there is a strong majority of the people in Texas who are supporting this decision. This one decision has changed so much of everything that we were talking about

just a couple of weeks ago with the southern border, with Ukraine, with the elections and Trump and Biden. It's changed everything now. And I just wonder if Biden will dare to cross that rubicon and actually go after Texas. I mean, I wonder if his team will actually make that that terrible decision. Because, you know, in much the same way that it looks like Bricks or Russia is five or ten steps ahead of the Biden White House, I just get the sense that Texas, this is my sense. I could be wrong about this as well, but my sense is that Texas and perhaps Trump working with Texas or advising Texas, the Trump, the Trump team.

and various Republicans are 10 steps ahead of the Biden White House. I think you're right. I'm just going to make a few quick observations. I suspect that nobody saw this coming because everybody was expecting the Supreme Court to side with Texas. And perhaps they were expecting the Supreme Court to side with Texas because that would have been the more obviously correct decision. I mean, I'm not, as I said, an expert on these things. If I'm right about that, then we see how Chief Justice Roberts,

constant, you know, moving around and politically positioning the Supreme Court is actually potentially provoking a political crisis, which is, of course, the opposite of what he wants to see how. also one must assume. So I mean I think that's probably why none of us saw he coming. But as to what the Biden administration is going to do, I think you're absolutely right. I think best policy they could follow is to say, okay, the Supreme Court's made a decision. We don't agree with this decision, obviously, but we're not going to go into Texas and start messing things around in Texas. I mean, this is a bad decision, and we can talk about how

Republicans always talk about the need to uphold the Supreme Court, but they don't uphold the Supreme Court when it no longer suits them. So their claim to be the defenders of law and order and all that is a bogus one. I mean, that's the line I would be taking if I was in Biden's shoes. But I predict he's not going to take it because it's straightforward about it. He doesn't care about law and order, nor this is a democratic base, not in the way that we, you and I, care about law and order. What he cares about, what the Democratic Party cares about, is the appearance of control. And Texas is now defying them. It's defying them. The federal governments, they are, of course, but it's not defined them politically, and that they will see as a challenge

and an intolerable challenge. And so they will press on. We've, we've. We've, we've, said many times that these guys have no reverse care in foreign policy. They have no reverse care in domestic policy either or so it seems to be. Yep, exactly right. R. K, we will end the video there, the durand. Dot locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchew, Telegram, Rock Finn, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, 50% of all T-shirts. Take care.