The Duran Podcast - Big change in Russia's nuclear doctrine

Episode Date: September 29, 2024

Big change in Russia's nuclear doctrine

All right, Alexander, we are here in Kuala Lampur, Malaysia, and we are going to talk about the big news that was announced the other day. Putin at, it was a security council meeting? That's right. Security council meeting in Moscow. In Moscow, okay. And I guess you would say he lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons used. Neff weapons used by Russia.

Okay, so this is huge news. Obviously, a lot of people are worried about this announcement. It worries me when you hear stuff like this, that you're lowering the threshold. It's worrying because you think we're heading closer to a nuclear war. But Putin has given the message. He timed it right before Zelensky was going to meet with Biden and Harris. And this is his second, I don't want to say warning, but he gave the warning last week. and now he's taken one step closer to codifying.

I mean, he has codified that warning. Anyway, your thoughts about this big announcement? I think this is a very big announcement. I think that there's a lot of misunderstandings about it, and I think there's, on the one hand, attempts to downplay insignificance to say that he doesn't really change anything significant. And others, of course, go to the other extreme

and say that, you know, nuclear war is around the corner or that he's making up more threats about nuclear weapons and all that. In fact, I think this is a very big announcement, and it does exactly what you say. It lowers the thresholds. Now, I think that there's a few things we need to understand and explain about the framework of this decision. And it goes to the way in which the Russian system works.

Now, the Russians have three types of... rules. There's laws which are passed by the Parliament and the Constitution. There are decrees which are passed by the President and other senior officials and decrees originate from powers the President is given through laws and through the Constitution, but decrees themselves have the force of law. And then there are orders that the President and ministers make through which they implement the laws and the decrees. Now this is a decree. What we are working towards is an announcement of policy, exactly what you said, a codification of the rules of how nuclear weapons are going to be used. And it would be a it would be

done through a decree. It's not yet been signed, but it's coming to that point very soon. And because it would be, it would the force of law, it will restrict Putin himself. Putin can't just get up in the morning and announce, tomorrow I want to drop a nuclear bomb on Kiev. He can only give orders for use of nuclear weapons if it is compatible with the nuclear weapons policy that is set out in the decree.

If he gives an illegal order of that nature, then the military, and by the military we mean defense minister, Belloosov, and Gerasim of the chief of the general staff, who also, by the way, have nuclear briefcases, would be entitled to ignore it. So this is, I think, this is what this is the framework, and I think it's important to understand that,

framework. Because the media runs with the articles of Putin's going to launch. Yeah, launch and nuclear missiles. Exactly. It doesn't work like that. But there's been a debate and a discussion within Russia. Apparently it's been going on for about a year, but clearly it's been developing over time. And now they have made significant changes to their nuclear doctrine, which means that the range,

The bandwidth, if you like, of Russian decision-making on use of nuclear weapons has been significantly expanded. Now, up to now, up to very recently, the Russians basically had a policy that they would only use nuclear weapons if they were facing threats of nuclear weapons being used against them so that their entire state was in danger. Now they're saying that we would be entitled to nuclear weapons if we were attacked by a country that is an ally of a nuclear weapons state. And if that attack was such that it placed in jeopardy Russia's security, territorial integrity and future. And of course the nuclear power is the United States. Many people assume that the non-nuclear power that they're referring to that would be allied with the United States in carrying out that attack would be Ukraine.

And of course, Ukraine obviously features. But it could in theory be others. It could be the Baltic states, the Scandinavian countries, Poland. Because it also incorporates. You're leading into it. It incorporates Belarus and I think that's another component. It incorporates Belarus and it covers Kaliningrad. And there have been discussions in the media about, you know, attacks on Kaliningrad. A lot of discussions. A lot of discussions.

And of course, it extends. That's the other key point to understand about this change. It treats Belarus from now on as Russian territory. So an attack on Belarus is an attack on Russia. And if this kind, the same sort of attack were carried out against Belarus, then the Russians, the Russian president would have the right to order nuclear weapons use to protect Belarus in exactly the same way as he would if there was an attack on Russia. So it extends the Russian nuclear umbrella to cover Belarus.

as well. So this is a major change. It's a much bigger change than some people understand, but it doesn't mean that the Russians are thinking of using nuclear weapons tomorrow. But does it mean, or does it have a connection to the long-range missile strikes, the push for storm shadows and scalps to hit Russian territory? Because I believe Peskov said the other day that this change was directed towards the U.S., UK and France. I mean, he said it. So, I mean, obviously there is a connection to the long-range missiles. There is a connection because what Putin said about 10 days ago, when the British in particular

were promoting this idea of carrying out long-range missile strikes against Russia, he said these are missile strikes in which Western personnel would be involved, and that the Russians would construe that as an act of war. that if that were done, Russia would be at war with the countries that participated in the launch of these missiles. And if you look at Putin's words, as he announces these prospective changes in the policy, because they haven't yet been fully codified, we don't yet to have a legal document, but that is coming. He actually talks about missile strikes and drone attacks and the kind of things that we have been seeing, being carried out at the moment.

So if they're done on a big enough scale, then Russia would consider itself entitled to respond to retaliate, to attacks using long-range missiles with nuclear weapons. Now, the final decision on whether to do that would rest with Putin himself. I mean, they wouldn't do it automatically. There would have to be a decision.

They'd have to quantify the extent of the attack, decide how dangerous it was to themselves. But they would be authorizing themselves, empowering themselves to do something, use nuclear weapons, in the event that deep strikes with missiles were carried out against their territory. It's not only missiles, is it?

Oh, no, I mean, it's drones as well. And anybody who thinks that this is unconnected with the recent debates that are happening in the West and, you know, the drone and missile attacks that are already taking place, I think anybody who thinks that this is unconnected is, I mean, being delusional. I mean, clearly is connected.

And we can see how all of these discussions about doing all of these things, what they are already achieving is that they are called, causing the Russians to lower their nuclear thresholds in order to re-establish deterrence. Did we not say it that all of this escalation instead of pushing Putin to capitulate, all they've done is they've moved Putin more towards Merved if he's taken a more harder line where Putin was a moderate.

Yes. I wish people would just understand this in the West, in the collective West, in the mainstream media, all these leaders in in europe and the u.s that puttin is a moderate yes he is a moderate but now he's being he's being moved towards towards a harder line because of all of the the escalation but just so i understand the the process it is putin but yerasmov and the defense minister they also act as a backstop correct exactly it's like a three-person it's a three-person thing so i mean as i said if the decision is made if Putin gets up in the morning and says you know let's carry nuclear attack tomorrow and there's no reason. Okay, let's take drone strikes, 150 drones are launched into Russia.

There would need to be a discussion. Okay. Putin would speak with Gerasimov, with Bel-Uusuf, probably with the rest of the Security Council, and then there would be a decision, but the final decision would be his. Okay, so he has the final call. Yes. Okay. The reaction from the EU and the United States, the EU, the EU, they're

They said they reject this. They rejected. They said as if anyone cares. But the United States seemed shocked. Shocked. I mean, Blinken was shocked, I think. For one of those rare times where you see Blinken is just kind of worried about this. He kind of had that, oh, crap, I messed up moment.

I think he had it when this was announced. What do you think of it be a reality? I think that's exactly what. First of all, the EU doesn't understand this because, frankly, they're not involved. in nuclear weapons policy. The EU doesn't have its own nuclear weapons. So, I mean, this isn't something they understand. They are taking an extremely anti-strong anti-Russian line.

As far as they're concerned, this is just Putin, and they're not going to pay any attention. The Americans are in a completely different position, because, of course, they have a very, very long history of being in a kind of nuclear standoff with the Russians. going all the way back to the 1940s. So they have long, much deeper understanding and experience of what this means. And from an American point of view, they now have to recalibrate their own decision-making

on the basis of the fact that the Russians have just lowered their nuclear thresholds. And there will be a lot of recrimination behind the scenes about this within the US government. people from the Pentagon, the Intelligences, all of those people will be coming back in the National Security Council. They'll be coming back and they say, our decision making now has just become more complicated. Yeah, it really messed up. The Biden White House really, really messed up. Can this be rolled back by Russia if a new administration comes in into power in the US? Can something like this be rolled back to what it was? Well, in theory, it could be.

I mean, you know, you have a decree, but a decree can be replaced by a different decree. The mechanisms to do that exist. Well, I have to be honest, I mean, given how bad relations between the US and Russia have become, given the enormous deficit of trust that exists now, it's going to be very, very hard

to persuade the Russians to row this back. And, you know, it's all very well saying that a new administration can come in, try and sort out the problems in Ukraine, try and sort of cool and calm things down. But the Russians will say, well, that's you, that's the US telling us this. What are you going to do about all your non-nuclear allies?

The Baltic states, the Poles, the Scandinavia, The Germans, sometimes some people in Germany have talked about Kaliningrad, the British. Are you going to rein them in? Because unless you do, unless we get a situation where they are restricted in what they can do, unless you impose block discipline on them, how do we know that we won't find ourselves in exactly the same situation again? Maybe they will against our threats against... Belarus and Kaliningrad and whatever.

So I don't think this is going to change anytime soon. That's my own view. The European Union messed up. I'm saying the Biden White House messed up. Boy, did the European Union really messed up. Anyway, that is the video. The durand.m.mogos.com. We are on Rumble audacity, bitchwood,

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