The Duran Podcast - Blinken Middle East failure

Episode Date: August 24, 2024

Blinken Middle East failure

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in the Middle East. It looks like Blinken is trying to get another ceasefire put in place in Gaza. And we are still waiting to see what Iran is going to do, if anything. Yeah. I think that's a situation. You know, what do you think? It is the situation. Let's talk about the ceasefire negotiations because apparently this is,

Blinkett's ninth attempt to broker a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. And by the way, we're saying ninth attempt. I mean, he's been talking about this constantly now for weeks. You remember the time when we said that the United States would eventually ask Israel for a ceasefire? We're not pushing Israel for a ceasefire. Well, we're absolutely there now. And to be clear, it's based the reason. the US is doing it is for two reasons. Rather, the Biden administration is doing it is for two reasons.

Firstly, it is a factor in the US election. They need to sort out the problems in the Middle East in Gaza specifically because they're worried about votes in certain states and among some demographics, and they want to get this whole topic of Gaza off the agenda. That's one reason, and that's been there for a long time. But there is a second one, and that is this looming, issue of the confrontation with Iran, which now overshadows everything. We are, as you correctly said, waiting to see what the Iranians are going to do. Some still assume the, some still assume the Iranians are going to attack in a big way. I am one of those people. Others think that the Iranians are going to do nothing. Whatever it is that they're going to do, they're keeping everybody

guessing and the Israelis themselves are getting very nervous and very edgy about it. The other day, two days ago, the Israeli foreign minister, Mr. Katz, had a meeting with the British and French foreign ministers and he said afterwards that the British and the French had assured him that if Iran attacks Israel, then Israel will conduct offensive operations against Iran. In other words, it will attack Iran itself and that all of the Western powers, the United States, Britain and France will participate on that attack against Iran. Now, that was actually, I mean, there's no doubt at all that he said that. And then a few hours later, the Israeli foreign ministry published a readout of the conversation and all the section about Katz saying

that Israel will launch an offensive against Iran and that the British and the French would participate or that was deleted. It was taken out. I think myself that some discussions of that kind are taking place. You can argue what the purpose of the whole incident was, but it still shows again that we are very much in a war of nerves. So how to prevent this confrontational? with Iran, which the United States, to be very clear, the more level-headed people in the United

States don't need. They're trying to do it by brokering a ceasefire in Gaza. And the idea is that you tell the Iranians, look, Gaza, we now have a ceasefire. If you start launching strikes against Israel, you're simply going to disturb the situation. We've stabilized the situation. Gaza, therefore, it's absolutely wrong and inappropriate for you to try and launch missile strikes against Israel now. In other words, the Gaza negotiations, the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are woven into the fabric of the confrontation with Iran. And you can see that this is the case from the statements that the Americans and the other powers made, including that five-power statement that the British, the French, the Germans,

the Italians and the United States made last week, which we discussed in another video. They're trying to create a linkage between the two issues. Now, the problem that they're running into is that they have an outline agreement, a framework agreement that they sorted out some weeks ago. And the idea was there's a ceasefire in Gaza. Hamas remains in existence, but releases its hostages. This is basically the format. And if you go back to those UN Security Council resolutions that we've been talking about, you'll see that that is actually the format that was set out in the UN Security Council resolutions. The trouble is, though the Israeli military gives every impression of being very anxious to achieve a ceasefire because the war in Gaza has been debilitating, Netanyahu, as we know, does not.

He doesn't want a ceasefire in Gaza because that would create problems within his coalition, and he doesn't want to ceasefire in Gaza because he clearly does want a military confrontation with Iran. So what repeatedly happens is as we get closer to the point where he ceased fire with Gaza in Gaza might be about to be agreed, Netanyahu introduces new elements. And, well, one element we saw three weeks ago when Ismail Hanier, who was, Hamas's lead negotiated, was assassinated in Tehran. But he's been introducing new conditions into the negotiations. He wants, for example, Israel to have indefinite control of certain key crossing points and strategic locations within Gaza itself. Lincoln's approach to this is always to agree to whatever new demands Netanyahu makes. And of course, the result is that Hamas say that this is unacceptable and we don't get a ceasefire.

It's not a bad strategy if you're the United States, is it to say, okay, well, you know, we're about to get a ceasefire in Gaza. And now Iran comes and they ruin it. They spoil it with this retaliation. I mean, the media, they're not going to provide any context as to what's going on. We're already about two weeks removed, two, three, three. weeks removed from the incident anyway. So, you know, they can spin this in a way which blames Iran. So for the United States, this kind of makes sense to create this linkage. And then if Iran does retaliate, you blame it on Iran fully and you don't give any context as to how we got here.

And you just run with the story that Iran, we had a ceasefire. We had peace. And Iran spoiled it. I mean, that's the title you run. Exactly, except of course that they haven't got a ceasefire. and they haven't got hostages released either. This is, I think, an effective media strategy in terms of the United States and the election process is there. I think in the Middle East itself, and by the way in Israel, it is playing out differently. and one of the fundamental problems, the thing that the United States can't ultimately square, is that one of the parties absolutely does not want to cease fire in Gaza and does want war with Iran. And it's not difficult to identify who that party is, and that is Netanyahu.

And even in the US, even in some parts of Europe, I think that, that, This is broken through, and there are many people who can see it. I think that it's a strategy, as you said, but it's essentially a information strategy, not a substantive one. Anyway, that's what they're trying to do. That's their go-to, though, when you talk about the buy-the-house. That's their bread and butter is an information media strategy at advantage in that space. I mean, you know, we come.

back to the to the problem that the Biden White House has had since since the beginning of of Gaza, of the conflict, of the tensions in the Middle East, which is Netanyahu. How do they, they've been trying now for for more than six months to figure out a way to remove Netanyahu. And the only thing that has happened is that the only person that has been removed is Biden. So, I mean, this is what the U.S. has been trying to do for. for many, many months now, but they can't figure it out. Correct. That's exactly what's happened. You're completely correct. They can't get around the

problem of Netanyahu. Netanyahu is very entrenched as Prime Minister of Israel. And his position, in my opinion, is now stronger than it has ever been since October, the events of October last year. He's seen off Biden. His coalition has become strengthened, because you remember the war cabinet was created and that there were all those parties that joined it which came from outside his coalition. They've all fallen away, but that has merely left his coalition more coherent. Yes, he's got problems with Israeli military, but Israel is the kind of country where the military does not take an overt political role. I mean, it's not going to challenge the government or carry out a coup or do anything of that kind.

And of course, he does have his supporters within the military and the intelligence and security services as well. So I think he's in a very, very strong position. And he knows it. And he is, as we've discussed, taking advantage of the power vacuum that exists in the United States with a president who is clearly now, well, not just a lame duck, but a shadow. and he can look forward to the November election. Either his old friend Donald Trump wins or if it's the Democrat candidate who wins. Well, frankly, she does not look like she's really going to be a strong figure able to place the kind of restraints on him that one might have looked for in a more experienced and strong-minded president

that we haven't had a president like that for a very, very long time. in the United States. So I think he's in a very strong position. And he says to himself, look, I want a war. I want a war with Iran. I want the West involved. I want the British and the French joining me and the Americans too. That's why he got his foreign minister to say that. So it's now all out there circulating publicly. And by the way, who knows what private promises the British and the French might actually have made, I mean, it'd been an appalling fact if it was so, but given the political personalities in charge in Britain and France, Macron and Stama, it would not be beyond my imagination that they might even agree to such a thing.

So, you know, it's not impossible that, you know, we're moving towards, he's moving towards that kind of objective that he has set himself, and he sees no real need to agree to concessions at all. In my opinion, the only reason he's engaging in ceasefire talks at all is because of domestic pressures on him, from within Israel itself, because the military want to ceasefire because they're tired and because the part of the Israeli population is anxious to get the hostages released and that's what they're demanding. Yeah, those are his only two pressure points, is the military and Israeli public opinion and protests, which we do see breaking out quite often actually in Israel.

So, yeah, either Donald Trump becomes president, and as you said, he's got his friend back in the White House, and they are friends again. They had a falling out, but they've patched things up. Or he gets another shadow government. Kamala Harris, right? So, so he, Netanyahu wins either, either way, whatever happens. Exactly. He wins. And plus, he understands that Blinken is, is not going to be able to accomplish anything. He understands that when you're talking about blinking, trying to do diplomacy in the Middle East, Netanyahu understands that this guy has no clue how to achieve anything when it comes to diplomacy or negotiating some sort of a bargain or ceasefire. So he can string blinking along and blink is not going to have any clue what's going on.

That's exactly correct. That's exactly my impression, actually. Yeah. So anything else that we should talk about? What does Iran do? How does Iran respond to this? It seems like Iran's in a bit of a difficult position here. Well, they're in a very difficult position because they clearly don't want to war, and they've been saying this for months. In fact, they've been saying this all the way back to October. But at the same time, they have to respond in some way to the fact that the Israelis carried out this assassination on their territory. And they've said they will do it. There'll be an unacceptable loss of faces. They didn't, I think. They also understand very well that sooner or later Netanyahu is going to get.

get the war that he wants because he's clearly set on it. So the Iranians have to prepare their ground very carefully. And I think that's what they're doing. I've even seen, I've seen a suggestion made, by the way, that if we're looking for a date for the Iranian retaliation, more plausibly it will be sometime around October than the now. closer to the election date in the United States, maybe just say. But also, you know, this is the time frame that they would need

to get all their logistics and all their preparations organized to absorb whatever new weapons they've had from the Russians, assuming those reports are true, get maybe the Suhoi 35 fighter jets they've been promised in operation, if they really are coming. Again, I don't know about this. But also to get everything ready, to get everything in, position so that they can, when they do launch their strike, which as I said, I still think

they will. They've said they will. So I said, I don't think there's any reason to doubt that they eventually will. When the strike comes, they're in the best position to absorb the counter strike, which will follow. Yeah, the problem that Iran has is they can't, they can't wait out, Netanyahu. That's obvious. No.

He's not going anywhere. At least that's how it looks. Exactly. They can't wait it out and wait for him to go and then deal with a new Israeli leader, a new Israeli government. And then the other problem is Netanyahu may be acting preemptively. There is a lot of talk about Netanyahu seeing the preparation from Iran and then maybe making the argument that Israel, the United States, the UK, France, they need to take preemptive action against Iran. It's all of... That is a worry.

Yes, it's... I mean, that has been discussed in the Israeli media. I get the sense that the United States absolutely doesn't want that, because that would be a much more difficult spin than responding to an Iranian attack would be. But probably for these people, not an impossible one. But I don't think the United States wants it anyway. I don't think they want the war in the Middle East.

at least I don't think the current administration once a full-on war in the Middle East before the election. But, you know, I don't think they have control. This is the problem. They gave up control way back in October. We've discussed this many times when they gave Netanyahu a blank check. Now, when we were saying that back in October, we were outliers. Now that's become a consensus, by the way. you see articles appearing in all kinds of places,

which say the same thing. Yes, you do. All right. We will end it there. The durand.locals.com. We are in Rumble Odyssey, but shoot, telegram, rock fin, and TwitterX

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