The Duran Podcast - BRICS prepare peace plan as Gaza evacuation looms

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

BRICS prepare peace plan as Gaza evacuation looms

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the war in the Middle East, in Israel and Gaza. And I think we have two things that we could focus in on. There's a lot to discuss, but let's try to focus in on two things. The first one is Israel's notification to the United Nations that the UN as well as people living in the north, the north part of Gaza need to evacuate to the south of Gaza. We're talking about 1 million to 1.1 million people in 24 hours. This is a statement that the UN put out as they were notified by Israel. And then we can talk about, well, there's the professionals who want peace,

professional diplomats who are working towards peace, and you'll reveal who those professional diplomats are. And then we have a whole cascade of EU officials, U.S. officials, foreign ministers from the collective West. I'm thinking Berbach and I'm thinking Ursula von der Leyen and all these people who are not professional diplomats and who are not traveling to Israel in order to find an off ramp to this conflict. That's my opinion. But we are seeing two different approaches to what's happening right now in this. this horrific war. There are a group of countries and people who are actively working to get a peace. And then I think there are people who seem to be repeating what we saw in Kiev, say,

a year and a half ago. Anyway, let's begin. Well, this is exactly correct. But I think we should start, first of all, with the really very, very worrying use from the conflict zone, which is, of course, we've now had this demand from Israel to the UN. Now, the UN said that Israel gave this 24-hour timeline, which is impossible. And the UN has said so. I mean, it is impossible to evacuate 1.1 million people in 24 hours. I mean, there are some situations, perhaps, where you could move that number of people and that length of time, but you can't do it in this situation. I mean, how is it supposed to be done?

I mean, there aren't the vehicles, there aren't the machine, you know, the cars, the trucks, the coaches to move them in that space of time. And, of course, where would you put them? I mean, you know, setting up tent cities, providing food, providing water for a million people, displaced people. I mean, it's just inconceivable. Now, over the last few minutes, just before we started doing this programme, the Israelis appear to have backed track a little on this. They said that they haven't actually asked that it should be done within 24 hours. Though, of course, the UN said that they had, and I don't see why the UN would have made that up. So I think that that was what the UN people must have meant by it.

But what the UN people said must have been true. But anyway, the Israelis clearly they've been told this is impossible. People around the world, presumably, even the Americans are probably telling them that this is impossible. You've got to back off. And they have backed off to some extent. But they are still demanding that these people should leave. Of course, Hamas, which is present on the ground, is telling people that they must stay. and I think that they will stay

quite apart from anything else I mean the fact that Hamas is there and is in a position to insist that they stay I think that's going to be decisive because they're the people who are there but secondly and this must be a very very widespread sentiment

amongst people in Gaza given the history they must worry that if they leave their homes and Israel occupies them then they will never go back. I mean, that's been the story of the Palestinians ever since the 1948 war, and that is something that is burnt into the memories, into the minds of every Palestinian. And I can't imagine that they will willingly leave their homes and allow another part of Palestine, as they

would see it, to be lost permanently in that way. So I think that they will stay. I think that at some level, even the Israelis must understand that. And I wonder again whether this isn't perhaps an attempt to prepare for a ground invasion of this territory and to give Israel some kind of alibi, if you like, if many civilians are killed, they'll say, well, we did ask these people to leave, which is true. But I can't imagine that the Israelis seriously believe that this is going to happen. And note that it's not to leave Gaza entirely. The Egyptians have apparently completely ruled that out. It's to leave one part of Gaza and evacuate to another part of Gaza. And I don't think that even that is going to happen. Okay, so let's talk about the diplomacy part

of all of this then. How about the trips by Austin, Ursula, Blinken, Foreign Minister of Germany, Annalina, Berbach, Foreign Minister of Canada, Foreign Minister of Italy. They're all piling into, to Tel Aviv and to Israel, to give support to Israel. And then on the other side, you have bricks. Yes. Yes. I mean, there's a fundamental difference,

and you're absolutely correct in putting your finger on it. I mean, we're on the brink now of a major Israeli operation. I mean, you know, it could be a ground operation, it could be a bombing war, it could be something like that. And there's been some reports that the United States has told Israel to, you know, slow down, think about what they're going to do, be careful. And it could be that that was where the, you know, this demand that people leave northern Gaza came from, that it was basically an attempt to... to respond to that request from the United States. But overall, what we're seeing is all of these people, they're going to Israel, they're giving what seems to be unqualified support.

There's no real sign that they're engaging anymore in any real attempts to look for a longer-term sustainable solution to this, an attempt that will both secure Israel, protect Israel, and at the same time. avoid what is now clearly developing into a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, which could have colossal repercussions across the Middle East. None of these people seem to have that level of imagination, that degree of political skill, that diplomatic understanding. And if we look at what the US government has been doing, well, we've had multiple conversations between, Biden and Netanyahu.

We've had Blinken, of course, going to Israel. We've had Lloyd Austin going to Israel. So far as I could see, as of yesterday, there's only been one contact between the highest officials of the administration, which is to say, Blinken, Sullivan, and Biden himself, and the Arab states, which was a single call between the President of the United States and the president of the UAE.

So all of these people, parling in, giving support, doing exactly what you said with Ukraine. No real attempt to think away through this problem. Reflexive action. Give weapons. Give support. Make threats.

Put pressure. And of course, now we see a completely different approach, which is now happening amongst the BRIC states. And bear in mind, I say the BRIC states, BRICS has now massively expanded. So all of the major players that we're talking about are now members of BRICs. So we've had a conversation between the president of Iran,

President Braheesey, and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. We've had the Iranian foreign minister has been working extremely hard, talking to multiple, foreign ministers to those of Egypt, those of the UAE, those of Kuwait, those of Iraq. The Russians, of course, have also been busy. We've had conversations between Putin and the Prime Minister of Iraq, who was by chance in Russia,

and they had a big meeting there, and there was a news conference. The Foreign Minister of Russia, who is, of course, Lavrov. He's been talking to the Iranian foreign minister. He's been talking to the Egyptian foreign minister. The Saudis and the Russians have been talking on the margins of a big energy conference that has been underway in Moscow. There is intense diplomatic activity. And Putin has been making all sorts of comments.

He's been saying this is the cause of the problem, is that we have never set up the Palestinian state. the United States has monopolized diplomacy in this region since the mid-1970s. He didn't give that date, but that's really when it started, that the Americans have never really come up with a coherent approach to this problem, that they haven't really considered Palestinian concerns. They've never really addressed Israel's actual true security interests. And what Putin is clearly hinting at

is that the BRIC states, and every one of these states now, apart from Egypt, which is not, sorry, about from Iraq, which is not yet in the BRICs, but Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, they're all members of the BRICs. I forgot to mention that Erdogan and Putin have also spoken. So all of these people are speaking. What I predict is going to happen, what I'm sure is going to happen,

is that they're going to come up at some point with a peace initiative looking for a ceasefire. Putin says there must be an immediate ceasefire by both sides. Civilians must not be targeted by both sides. Now that is a statement directed at Hamas, obviously, because they deliberately targeted civilians and killed them in the most gruesome way. But it is also a statement directed at Israel.

You know, bombing Gaza is not going to be the solution to this. So there's going to be a demand for an unconditional ceasefire, and then there's going to be a demand for negotiations, and the objective must be to establish a Palestinian state eventually with Jerusalem as its capital, East Jerusalem as its capital. The Russians have said that if that happens, they will recognize that Israel's capital is also Jerusalem. They said that in the past, but anyway, that is what they want to see happen.

and I predict that before long we're going to see a major BRICS initiative to that effect. And one, the most powerful BRICS state of all, China is apparently staying outside all of this. We've had no indications that they've been involved in any of these discussions. But of course, the reality is they must be. It is inconceivable that the Russians and the Chinese aren't speaking to each other about this matter. I'm sure the Iranians are also speaking to the Russians. I'm sure the Saudis are speaking to the Saudis as well. But the Chinese media is also clear that this is the result of failure of US policy in the region.

so they're now starting to echo Russian talking points. And of course, just this morning, a few minutes ago, in fact, Maria Zaharava, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that the job now of the other states, the real community of states outside the West, is to clean up the mess created in the Middle East by the United States. I mean, she's made it explicit. So this is the difference.

the Western powers piling into Israel, not coming up with proposals, not really having much dialogue with the Arab countries, the BRIC states working on what is clearly an attempt at some kind of big diplomatic initiative. And I expect to see that start to develop, maybe not immediately, but at some point within the next few weeks. And we'll see what the response to it is when it happens then. yeah the the phone call the one phone call that took place between Biden and the Biden White House in Qatar i don't even think that had that had anything to do with uh with some type of off ramp or no or any type of negotiation i think that was completely about um completely focused on the six billion in funds in in Qatar that's what i think that phone call was about so they they yeah i don't think they even discussed trying to find an offering it was all about money no how can we freeze

though it's $6 billion so it doesn't get to Iran and eventually it makes our way makes its way back to us. I know. It's nothing. I mean, and you know, Biden ought to be on the phone at this moment to the President of Egypt. He ought to be talking to the Crown Prince

of Saudi Arabia. He ought to be talking to the real leaders of the Arab world. Well, exactly how? He's not capable of doing it. And we all know that. And we have that problem also. I mean, that is the problem also. once upon a time back in the 1970s,

which the Russians say was the bad time of American diplomacy. But I can remember in those days, Henry Kissinger doing his shuttles, he was going from Israel to Egypt, from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, flying back to Israel, he was constantly working the phones, he was doing all of these things. Today, the United States does none of that. Eventually, no doubt, we will get some kind of feeble contacts, but nobody...

believes there's anything convincing about any of that. And the European Union is just nowhere to be seen. And Josef von der Leyen and all those awful people. And sorry to say that. And Beirbach and all that lot. I mean, they are absolutely useless in this affair. I mean, it's laughable to even consider that someone like Annalina Beirbach is able to contribute anything to finding some sort of peace in this.

war. I mean, it's just a laughable proposition. But, you know, they go there because this is some sort of, I don't know, I can't think of the word, but it feels like it's some sort of virtue signal in a way. You know, I have to go there. I have to show my support. But they're not going there to help, to be constructive. It's just more for the show of it. And they're going to escalate because they're going to say stupid stuff. That's the problem. They come out and they say dumb things and it escalates the situation. That's exactly correct. I mean, I mean, you know, you can say strong words about Hamas, and perhaps you should. But the function of foreign ministers is to try to seek solutions.

And they're not coming up with any. I mean, that is the fundamental problem. I mean, you know, they're not really working towards a solution that is an optimal one. they're just sitting back cheering on events that they don't, I get the sense, truly understand. And even as the whole situation there is now in danger of spiraling out of control, a prolonged bombing war against Gaza is going to have major consequences across the Middle East. It's unavoidably it will. And that is something where,

which as a diplomat, as a foreign minister, you need to think and be concerned about. But there's no sense that they really do understand it and that they really do understand how this is perceived. Not just in the Middle East, by the way, but across the Islamic world and the global South also. So what happens if and when, and I agree with you, I think the bricks, it's clear that the bricks are going to come up with some solution.

To be honest, They are the ones that can provide a solution. I mean, you know, if you have one party in a dispute that has been trying, allegedly has been trying to find a solution to this Gordian knot that we have here in Israel, and they haven't been able to untie this knot. That's the United States, and they've been trying 10, 20, 50 years. They haven't been able to do it logically. One would say, you know what?

Maybe it's time to get some fresh eyes on this, to get a fresh perspective. to figure this out. But you do have a solution, which is the UN resolutions. I mean, there is a framework in place. It's there. Yes. Someone just has to take the ball and run with it, because it looks like the United States is just not capable of doing it. That's pretty much what Putin was saying. But what happens if you have this, this BRICS plan, but at the same time, this peace plan, but at the same time, you have this massive bombing campaign or ground operation or both taking place in Gaza. I mean, it degrades the actual plan.

I mean, it takes away from the plan, doesn't it? Absolutely. Now, this is, I mean, you put your finger on the absolutely key point because, of course, they will come up with a plan. I'm absolutely sure. I mean, it will come probably piecemeal, but, I mean, they will be working on something over the next few weeks. But it's not going to stop this military operation. I mean, that is now, you know, inevitable. that there's no way that Putin can call Netanyahu or anyone else in Israel now

and persuade him or the Israelis to stop. And why would the Israelis want to stop at the moment, given that, as I said, they have this chorus of, I think, by the way, I say this carefully, advisedly, false friends encouraging them on. I say false friends, because in my opinion, what is going to happen is not in Israel's interests. That's my view.

Anyway, but he's not going to stop at this point. What I think is going to happen is one of two things. Either there will be an Israeli operation in Gaza, and it is completely successful, in which case whatever bricks plan we have will go fall by the wayside because the Israelis won't be interested in it and the Israelis will have advanced their objectives

and they will have had the support of the West, and that will be one outcome. Or, and I have to say this, I think a far more plausible outcome. Israel gets bogged out in a prolonged military campaign. Eventually, global opinion starts to shift, pressure starts to grow, feeling in the Muslim world starts to intensify, economic problems start to intensify in the West, because this is inevitably going to have an effect on energy prices over time. And we could most of us start to see major splits within opinion, especially in Europe,

and even to some extent in the United States. And then eventually this thing becomes bogged down. And at that moment, when it becomes clear that this isn't working, that is the moment when the brick states will move hard, and what I predict they will do at that point is that they will take their plan to the UN Security Council and they will dare the United States to veto it. And if the United States vetoes it,

then they will take it to the General Assembly. And that will then start the bowl rolling and will start to see world opinions start to line up and it will begin to become clear that the bricks stand for most, of the global community and that the West, the United States, is isolated in this issue. Now, I think, and this is actually an important point that Putin made. He said, people in Israel, there are people within the Israeli government who have a better understanding of this than some people in Washington do.

You have to decode a little bit of what Putin said, He said, I've talked with the Israelis many times, over many years, I've explained the position to them. I've heard from the Israelis there's more sophisticated understanding of this problem in Israel than there is in Washington or London and, of course, definitely in Brussels. And it may be that when that happens, it will be the Israelis themselves with a very, very complex, diverse political landscape in Israel. who will start to see that going down this route might be the best way forward. But of course the risk is putting all that possibility aside, except it's only a possibility, is that the United States will find itself isolated and marginalised

on what is for most people around the world, amongst Muslim people who are, you know, what, two billion of them, for most people around the global south, It's the single most important issue politically, geopolitically, in the world today. So that is how I think this thing could play out. Yeah, it would be a major diplomatic defeat for the United States. Yes, that's how it plays out. Yes. One final question.

What do you think about Biden and Netanyahu? They hate each other. Yes. How is that playing into this? No one's really discussed this. I discussed this a little bit in my video. I just kind of thought about it as I was walking around. I said, you know, how does the relationship,

the animosity between Biden and Netanyahu play into this? Netanyahu does not like Biden. That's not a secret. And Biden despises Netanyahu. That's not a secret. What's your take? It's going to enormously complicated decision-making, and it's going to increase eventually moves by the,

United States to get Netanyahu out of the Prime Minister's position. That is my own personal view. This is where this is coming. There's already been articles appearing in the British media saying that Netanyahu must go. And I think that we're going to see more and more of this, not immediately, but over the next few months, if this crisis becomes prolonged and deepens. because make no mistake, if there is a prolonged crisis in the Middle East, it will suck all the oxygen out of everything else. I mean, you know, geopolitically speaking. I mean, Ukraine, who cares about that anymore?

But the administration, and this is where I think people need to understand this, the administration, the Biden White House, is even less likely to survive a debacle in the Middle East over this issue. then it is to survive a debacle in Ukraine. So, I mean, this is a very, very dangerous thing for them. And if they start to sense that Netanyahu is standing in the way of whatever it is that they're coming up with over this crisis, they will work with their friends in Israel, of whom they have many,

to try to leverage Netanyahu out. And he will fight back, and he's got plenty of... backing in Israel and we will see on top of all the other problems a real clash between the White House and Netanyahu's government in Jerusalem. All right. We will leave it there. Is there anything else that you would like to add to this video? Should we wrap it up?

Well, you know, the thing is, I mean, we mustn't overlook the appalling horror and tragedy of all of this, which is going to get worse. I mean, there's going to be some kind of big Israeli military operation in Gaza. I happen to think that the way it's being prepared is a mistake, but I do understand the politics of this within Israel itself. The people who ought to be coming to Israel and giving advice and saying, look, think before you act, what you might do might not be in your best interests, ought to be the Americans and the Europeans

and they're cheerleading this and when and if this all goes horribly wrong I'm sorry to say it again but you know Netanyahu you can blame him all you like but the responsibility of the net of the of the Blinkins and the Austins and the Bearbox and the Ursulas will be greater still

because they're about the only people who could stop this train and there is no sign that they're trying. Yeah, it just reminds me of Ukraine and Boris Johnson's trips to Kiev. It's just these are the wrong people that you want to have on the ground in Israel at the moment. Bearbach and Ursula and Blinken. These people should be far away. They shouldn't be anywhere close to what's happening right now

because they're just not going to find. They're going to make matters worse with their rhetoric. Absolutely. I mean, you've got to get professionals in there. Well, words are easy. You can go to Jerusalem. You can say all kinds of things. You can talk about as long as it takes.

Remember that? Remember that? Where has that led? You can talk in that kind of way. But if you're a foreign minister and a diplomat, your responsibility goes far beyond that point. I mean, rhetoric which stands in the way of constructive, intelligent responses to problems is an obstacle. It's not a way to a solution.

And unfortunately, as you said, all of these people just don't understand that at all. And if you try and explain it to them, they just become angry with you. and at that point you start to see that they become rude and all those things. So anyway, that's, try and counsel you. Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. But there it is.

That's where we are. That's the world today. All right. The durand.com. We are on Rumble odyssey. It shoot, telegram, rock fin, end on X and go to. the Duran Shop. 20% off. Use the code. The Duran 20. Take care.