The Duran Podcast - Cauldrons In Donbass. Zelensky Buying Time, Hopes US Enters Conflict

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

Cauldrons In Donbass. Zelensky Buying Time, Hopes US Enters Conflict

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is happening in Ukraine. Lots of cauldrons in Donbass, huh? A lot of cauldrons are forming in Donbass. And it does look like Zelensky is more focused on Kursk and Harkov and the north of the front lines. We are also getting some reports saying that the Ukraine military is. starting to prepare fortifications in the Nipro-Petrosk in that region, anticipating a Russian advance towards that major city. Anyway, what are your thoughts on what is happening on the front lines?

This is exactly correct. I mean, I think what we are now seeing, and we're seeing it across the whole of south-central Donbass, and indeed Zaporosia and Herson as well, is that Ukrainian resistance is ebbing away fast. And I read a report, I think it was a Ukrainian report actually, which is one of the fundamental problems that the Ukrainians now have is that their military, their forces in central and southern Donbass are now so overstretched that they cannot hold the ground between the towns and the cities. They're not in a position to build fortifications in these places. And that gives the Russian. opportunities to maneuver in the open country.

And that means that the Russians are able to cut off Ukrainian units that are obliged to retreat into towns and cities in order to defend themselves. Because they're not strong enough to defend themselves in open country. And that is leading exactly to the outcome that you said. a whole cluster of different cauldrons or encirclements starting to appear in all sorts of places. So we have a major encirclement starting to develop in southern Dombas, in an important town called Kourajovar. We're still at a fairly early stage with this, but it's starting to appear. This is the area where the Russians recently captured Ugladar. They are advancing closer and closer to Kurovo.

They're perhaps two kilometers away in some places. There's apparently a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Kurohrujavu. Kurohruv is on a water reservoir, so the troops, the Ukrainian troops can't retreat, obviously, across the water. There are only a limited number of roads and the Russians, a Russian official. has told the Russian news agency tasks that the Russians have fire control, as they say, over all the main roads. And we can see that the Russians are moving rapidly towards trying to close off the main roads, which would lead to, as is an encirclement of the Ukrainian troops in this area. Then a little further to the north, there is another cauldron or encirclement which is developing.

is developing very fast. We're probably days away from where this is happening. This is around a town called Gernik, or Gorniak, as the Russians call it. There's a small cluster of villages around it. Supposedly several thousand Ukrainian troops are located there. The Russians are on all sides of this cluster of villages and this small town. They've just apparently, today, they've just, completed the capture of another village called Tsukourini, which effectively means that these troops, these Ukrainian troops in this town and in these villages, are effectively already encircled, operationally encircled.

There are still roads they could retreat through, but those roads are under Russian fire control, and the Russians are located very, very close to them. And then further north, there's Selidovo, town of about 24,000 people before the war. The Russians are to the north of it, they're to the south of it, they're to the east of it. They apparently again are coming very close to controlling all the main roads and railway lines into Selidavu. There's apparently a significant force of Ukrainian troops inside Selidavu. looks like they're going to be surrounded fairly soon as well.

And about a week ago, a Russian official also told to us that if we're talking about the big place in this area, which is Bakrowski, the Russians again have, as you put it, fire control over the main supply roads into Bakrowski. They've already cut the railway lines. They're bombing and shelling the main roads. It's very difficult for supplies to reach Pakarovsk through these roads. We're still some weeks away from a position where we can talk about an encirclement of the Ukrainian troops in Pakarovsk. But it is there just below the time horizon. And that's in southern central Donbass. If we go further north and further eastwards, the Russians have now taken. positions close around a fortified town called Civesk in the north. They've captured various

villages around Cvesque. Cvesque is already itself something of an enclave. It's deep inside you know Russian controlled territory. It looks to me as whatever Ukrainian troops are there are also at serious risk of encirclement. And there are various cauldrons of and minor cauldrons in the big town of Tarex, that the Russians have been gradually capturing over the last few months. And when Toresk itself falls, and when the neighboring town of Chassevia also falls, and their reports that the Russians are advancing in those places as well.

Well, you can see, if you look at a map, that again, the position of Ukrainian troops in this part of Dombas, south of Kramatoz looks precarious to put it mildly. So all of these cauldrons are starting to appear. And I get the sense that the Ukrainian leadership, the Ukrainian high command, quietly understands that all of these places are going to be lost. And what they're doing is that they're buying themselves time

by continuing to resist in these places, even if that means that their troops in Donbass are being sacrificed in huge numbers. And you're quite right, there are reports that they're now busy trying to create fortifications in Nyebro, the city of NEPRO, which is on the NEPA River.

In other words, they're thinking of a retreat to the NEPA in this area, while whilst at the same time trying to hold out in the north in Kharkov and Sumi region and in Kursk region which I get the sense is Zelensky's overriding priority because he knows that if the Russians captured these places Sumi, Kharkov, they retake Kuzk then they're at the gates of Kiev and then that, of course, puts the entire Ukrainian state in jeopardy. And, of course, so long as he remains in Kiev, it puts himself in jeopardy as well. So I think this is his priority.

I think that they've decided, I mean, they aren't, of course, saying so, but I think they've decided that they'll hold on as long as they can in Dombat at whatever the cost, but that their major focus now is defending in the north. Yeah, it's the north that Zelensky has also based his entire piece formula and peace summit on. The whole narrative for more money, more weapons, and a victory plan is based on the north, on the cursion. So, I mean, he's got to hold on to that if he wants to continue to put out this whole victory plan narrative. A plan which he's been talking about now for a couple of months and no one has actually seen a victory plan, which leads me to believe that there really is no victory plan.

It really is, as a collective West official said, it really is just a wish list of stuff that he wants. There is no real plan. No, no. I mean, his ultimate plan is to bring the United States into the war. We've discussed this many times. And interestingly enough, mainstream media are basically starting to say as much. I mean, they're gradually coming around to acknowledging that this is the only way that Zelensky can shift the situation. Now, I think you're quite right.

I think he's focused now. Hold on in the central and southern regions by fortifying positions along the Dnieper. And focus on the north. transfer your best troops and what supplies you have there. Talk about a victory plan in connection with your positions in the north. Try to hold positions in Cusk, which is, by the way, very dangerous. The Ukrainian troops in Cusk region also look like they might be in a cauldron before long. But that's his plan.

I think it is a very, very bad plan indeed. I mean, again, this is not my areas of expertise. But just to say, I mean, you know, writing off Dombas, writing off all of eastern Ukraine, south of Kharkov, writing off tens of thousands of men of your army in these places, what is going to do is it's going to leave Ukraine devastated and broken. And I don't think that a Ukraine weakened in that way, ultimately will be able to defend its positions along the NEPA or in the north. But to the extent that Zelensky actually has a plan, that appears to be the one that he has. Yeah, I wonder what happens after the election. I mean, we're a month away from the U.S. elections, less than a month away from the election.

elections in the United States, Zelensky was supposed to. The rumors in Kiev were stating that Elensky was going to fire Budanov and Umedov, the defense minister. The key, the key news there is that he was going to fire Budanov. Umedov, who cares about that guy? He was a, he was a fill in defense minister after Reznikov was fired for corruption or whatever Resnikov was fired for. But the key was that Budanov, the intel guy, one of the main guys in Project Ukraine. was going to be sacked by Zelensky. The news is that that has been delayed until after the U.S. election. And it just leads me to believe that Zelensky is waiting to see what's going to happen after the U.S. elections. Hold on to Donbass. Let me continue to hype up

the Kursk incursion for another month. And let's see what happens after the elections. from the U.S. side, the Sullivan's and the Blinkins and all of these guys, they'll be able to say, okay, we did our job. We got Ukraine past the election mark, the election finish line. Now it's up to the new administration. And Zelensky's waiting to see, is it going to be Harris or is it going to be Trump? Harris, there won't be much change. If anything, it may even be worse for Zelensky because she's obviously not interested in Ukraine, but just, she'll do whatever she's told to do. Trump is the question mark. Trump doesn't appear to like Zelensky much. At least that's the vibe that I got from their last meeting. But Trump has said that he will

put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. I wonder if Zelensky is thinking in a weird, twisted way, if he's thinking that maybe a Trump presidency would put pressure on Putin? and maybe he'll have a better chance of bringing the U.S. into Ukraine with Trump. I don't think that's what's going to happen. I think Trump is going to do the exact opposite. But I wonder if Zelensky is thinking, you know, if Trump can, if I can pit Trump off against Putin, then maybe that's my way of threading the needle and getting out of this, this mess. I don't know, your thoughts.

I'm just speculating some. Well, the great problem that I was thinking about. Yeah. The great problem with speculating about was Zelens. might do is that I think we're talking about a person who can see increasingly the writing on the wall. He understands that Ukraine cannot win the war, that it is being defeated. I think the Ukrainians understood that. I think Zelensky himself understood this back in July, by the way, as a couple of weeks ago. But I think that they understand that the war is lost. At the same time, they cannot bring

themselves to negotiate with the Russians and make concessions or return to Istanbul, to Istanbul, to Istanbul plus, or to speak with the Russians about the terms that Putin proposed back in June, which basically is Istanbul, plus a withdrawal by the Ukrainians completely from the four regions. So he's not able to do that. He's not able to do that emotionally, because he's invested so much in fighting the Russians. And at the same time, he can't do it politically because he understands that if he does it politically, he will bring the radical nationalists down upon him.

He also understands that he would politically be completely discredited if he were to do something like that. So a person who finds himself in that kind of position who has to go on, even despite the fact that he has no real, realistic prospect of turning things round, tends to clutch at straws. So he comes up with a victory plan, trying to get missiles to be launched against the Russians. He's going to represent his victory plan to a Rammstein meeting on 12th of October, by the way. That's being lined up in a couple of days.

He's going to turn up there. The Americans weren't impressed by the victory plan. The Pentagon appears to be host. style to it, but he's going to try and revive that all over again. So he's going to cling on to his victory plan, try to persuade people to agree to his victory plan. He's again thinking about a peace conference. He accepts that this time the Russians must be there, but it will only be to discuss his peace plan, which is for the Russians to pull out completely from Ukraine. He's still hoping somehow to persuade countries in the global south to come.

He reached out to Modi in India. He's tried the Saudis as well. Apparently, that didn't work out very well. Modi got stung by the whole experience. That's my own sense. So he's trying to do that too. And what you said about him hoping maybe that with Trump, things might change and turn out better for him.

I can completely believe this because as I said, a person who finds himself in the kind of situation that Zelensky is in is increasingly going to clutch at Strauss and is going to lose contact with reality. And I think that's exactly what's happening.

So yes, I think he might think to himself. Well, you know, Trump comes in, he doesn't like me very much, he wants to end the war, but maybe I can persuade him that if he goes along with me and threatens the Russians in all sorts of different ways,

then I can achieve through Trump what I failed to achieve up to now, which is to draw the Americans in. I think, like you, that he's completely wrong, but I can completely believe that that is what he's thinking, and that is what he's going to do. Yenstoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, and by the way, the Israeli Prime Minister of Dali Bennett,

have now revealed a rather embarrassing fact about Zelensky, which I think he won't be happy about, which has just been revealed, which is that in the first days after the start of the Russian special military operation, when the Russian army was at the gates of Kiev, in fact, a couple of hundred metres from his office, Zelensky was absolutely terrified, retreated into a bunker, and NATO lost contact with him for several days. And I mean, he was clearly, I mean, unsurprisingly, a very frightened man at that time. And he must remember all of that very vividly himself.

And he must be very afraid of reliving that whole experience. So you can see how people who have that. emotion behind them, that insecurity about them, well, you know, they clutch at straws, they come up with far-fetched plans, they say to themselves, it'll all be all right in the end because I'll find some way through. They don't look at a situation objectively and realistically, and I don't think Zelensky is. Yeah, but you know, that whole incident, the first month, of the special military operation, we now know, even from statements from Natali Bennett,

the former Prime Minister of Israel, that Russia had no intention to harm Zelensky. What they wanted to do is they wanted to get effectively Istanbul. They wanted to get a deal in place. And we got it. They got it. Everyone got it. Everything was initialed. And it was just waiting for the signatures of Zelensky.

And then Boris came into town. And I wonder what, so I mean, you know, Zelensky was frightened and scared. He got assurances from Naftali Bennett, who spoke to Putin that nothing was going to happen to him. And rightly so, he sent a delegation to Istanbul and they came up with an agreement, which would have effectively ended the conflict. So did Boris, when he flew to Kiev, did he basically tell us? Zelensky, you're safer with us than with this deal? I mean, was that the pitch? Did he play on Zelensky's fear and insecurities and tell him, look, you're not protected by this agreement. We're going to protect you. We're going to take care of you. Nothing's going to happen to you. And you're also going to

be the person that brought down the Russian Federation. You're going to be the guy that did what no one else could do that Napoleon couldn't do, that no one could do, which is to dismantle Russia. I mean, was that what was given to him? And is he now, and now is he feeling like maybe he made the wrong choice? Yeah, I'm sure he is. I'm sure he is feeling that he made the wrong choice. But I think in essence, probably not using exactly those words, but in essence, that is exactly what Boris Johnson, not just Boris, by the way, but a lot of other people from the

West were telling Zelensky at that time. They're saying, look, you've got absolutely nothing to fear if you stick with us, because we will ensure that you win. If you do this deal with the Russians that you want to do, we're not going to give you security guarantees. We're not going to give Ukraine security guarantees. You're going to be left alone and isolated. You're going to have all those radical people that you have difficult relations with already, and it already threatened to you personally, you're going to have to deal with them, and we're not going to lift a finger to help you because, you know, we're not going to come round and back Istanbul. Whereas if you stick with us, if you continue the war, we will give you every weapon that you

would need. We will give you all the support you need. We've already imposed massive sanctions on the Russians. You can be confident. You can be short. In a couple of weeks, a couple of months, This whole empire in the East, which you're up against, will come crashing down, and you will be, you know, the new Churchill, the new hero who brought it about. And I think that appealed to Zelensky's sense of vanity and his sense of melodrama, if you like. And it also, it also assuaged his very real insecurity. it is. Now, of course, he finds himself trapped in a much more difficult position. He's turning around and he's behaving in, as I said, this way of trying to clutch at straws. And he's also going

after various people in Kiev who are potentially, or he probably thinks, are potentially risks to him. And one of course, one of them, of course, is Budanov. Now the Budanov resignation or dismissal is a very strange affair because Budanov has been built up as this heroic figure, both in the Western media. There have been incredibly complementary articles and interviews with Budanov and, of course, in Ukraine itself. And up to now, Budanaf has been loyal to Zelensky. But suddenly, we're getting all of these reports that Budanov is out of favor. It is not clear why. I personally think that he's been criticized. He's been made the scapegoat, if you like.

Well, I say scapegoat. He probably was partly responsible for the Kusk debacle. I suspect that he did a lot of the planning and the thinking about the Kusk debacle, the advance into Kuzk, the capture of the power station, all of those things underestimated how strong. the Russians were there. So he's somebody to blame. Ultimately, I think, though,

what Zelensky is afraid of is that Budanov in place is Budanov in charge of a very powerful special forces apparatus, which Budanav has built up, and which has close connections with the American and British

intelligence agents. and that Budanif, if things start to go wrong, could be a potential challenger or threat to Zelensky. And that's probably why, at this moment's in time, there's word out that Zelensky and his chief of staff, Yermak, want to sack him. They can't sack him at the moment because he's still got American protection, or so it seems. So they're going to wait until the election, as you rightly say, see what happens. If, well, once it becomes clear who's going to take over and the issue of the election is out of the way, then possibly they will move forward with this thing. I would have thought that sacking would have done if it's going to be a complicated and very difficult thing to do.

But anyway, you know, whatever the explanation. behind all of these rumors about the sacking of Budanafar, whatever the explanations are, they do not suggest a stable or politically secure situation in Kiev. They suggest a government, a president, Zelensky, who sense that they're in trouble and at risk of losing control. All right, we will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble odyssey.

which you telegram and X and go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch, like what we are wearing in this video update. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.