The Duran Podcast - Chaos in Kiev follows chaotic retreat from Avdeyevka

Episode Date: February 19, 2024

Chaos in Kiev follows chaotic retreat from Avdeyevka

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the fall of Avdivka. Shoygu made it official. He told Russian President Vladimir Putin that FDefka is in Russia's control. And the Russians are not stopping. They continue to move forward across the entire front line, though this is not an offensive. The Russians are still in active defense, what they call. active defense. So anyway, what are your thoughts on Avdefka, on what the Russian military is doing? Of course, everyone is talking now about what's next. That's what everyone is trying to analyze and

trying to figure out. But perhaps we can start things off with the catastrophic retreat, if you can even call it that from Avdafka. I mean, a complete deba. on the side of the Ukraine military and on the side of the Zelensky government, which ran off to Munich. Anyway, what are your thoughts? Well, the first thing to say is you're absolutely correct. This is not just any defeat. This was a total, disorganized, chaotic collapse. A couple of days ago, the Ukrainians were still talking about holding on to Afdevka.

Sirsky was supposed to be organizing a counterattack to stabilize the situation in Avdhaevka. The third assault brigade, which we all know as the Azov Brigade, was being redeployed to defend Avdaevka. Air defense assets would also be rushed to Avdaevka. It was all the talk was of holding out. And it was completely disconnected, as we were discussing in our previous video, to the situation on the ground. What happened was the third assault of brigade, the troops that arrived in the area, they saw the catastrophe that was unfolding. They became involved in a short period of fighting with the Russians, relatively short, a couple of days. They took enormous losses, and they simply disobeyed orders.

The entire brigade collectively took a decision that it was not going to continue fighting in the way that Zelensky and Syria. were telling them to do. Meanwhile, the rest of the garrison, the people who were actually fighting in Abderevka for the last couple of months, they collectively had enough. And we saw play out over the weekend one of the most disorganised and chaotic collapses. I think that there's ever been in military, at least modern military history. And certainly the most chaotic that there's been over the course of this conflict in Ukraine. Soldiers started abandoning their positions right across the entire of Derricka front lines. They started retreating by themselves. They congregated in one area, the so-called ninth quarter. They tried to flee across the fields

to escape entrapment by the Russians. It seems hundreds of them took the decision to surrender, and at some point, Siersky, and by this point, Zelensky was away, but at some point Siersky, who is in Kiev, obviously, the Ucomandor chief, realized that what he was looking at was an uncontrolled collapse. The troops were no longer obeying orders that the Third Assault Regade had in effect mutiny. and in order to put some kind of gloss on things and to pretend that he was actually the person making the decisions and was really in charge, he then gave the formal order to retreat. By which point, of course, the retreat chaotic, disorganized, was already underway.

And the sequel, and I think we just need to get to the political sequel, is that Zelensky is apparently furious with Siersky that he allowed the situation to arise. He apparently was still hoping that Avdaevka would be held. It just goes to show again how clearly disconnected from reality he has become. He was furious that Avdaevka fell whilst he was going off to the Munich Security Conference. and apparently he's insisting on criminal investigations of some of the soldiers who fled from Avdafka and also, and this is politically incredibly dangerous, of the leadership of the Third Assault Brigade, in other words of the Assault of the Azov Brigade.

So total chaos and Zelensky still clearly doesn't get it because needless to say, going after the Azov Brigade, who are already, you know, overprivileged, very powerful force with guns, even in, you know, the men with guns, and with political views that we all know. I would have thought he's playing with fire, but apparently that is what Zelensky wants to do.

Now, I've been getting streams of reports now, including, you know, private emails, including from one particular person who, I'm not going to say who he is, except to say that he's not based in Ukraine, but who does have information from, he's consistently being reliable about the information he's had from the front lines and from the situation. He says that the stench from decomposing bodies across Afdaevka, is unbearable, that the Russians are having to organize parties of men to try to collect all these bodies. He's given me a figure for what are believed to be the total Ukrainian losses in Afghdavka. And I have to say this figure is staggering. I'm not going to say what it is

because it's not received independent corroboration, but he has been. inconsistently reliable about this kind of thing in the past. And suffice to say, it is a bigger number than any I have seen from any other source. It seems that there are thousands of Ukrainian troops, not hundreds, thousands who have been taken prisoner over the course of this battle, not just over the course of the last couple of days, by the way. And this is the most terrible debacle. And it seems the Ukrainian army, the soldiers in the Ukrainian army, understand this very well.

And they are furious about it. They're furious with Sirsky, obviously, and they're furious a bubble with Zelensky himself. And I'm also getting reports that several brigades are now becoming extremely restless and angry and are increasingly questioning. the nature of the leadership they're receiving from Kiev. And for all I know, that might be the reason why Zelensky's is insisting on criminal prosecutions against soldiers in Afdeyevka, perhaps because even he, in his disconnected way, is starting to sense that there's a real risk that he might lose control. So chaos, disaster all round.

incompetent military leadership at every level, a decision to hold on to Avdavka, long after it had become clear that the town was becoming undefendable. And by the way, when I say incompetent military leadership, we should not acquit Zalusinie as well. It was already obvious two or three weeks ago that the situation in Avdafka was becoming critical. The Russians would never have kept their troops exposed in that kind of situation. assuming that they'd ever found themselves in that kind of situation in the first place, which is inconceivable. But anyway, there should have been a withdrawal order made at least a week before,

as I said, this collapse that we see. And instead it was delayed, delayed until the soldiers themselves started to retreat, and conducted in the most chaotic and disorganized way, resulting in losses being much higher than they should ever have been. Yeah, I mean, Zilluzni should have retreated weeks ago, months ago. But maybe that signals that Zillusioni is really not commanding anything. Maybe this is evidence of command taking place outside of Ukraine, perhaps. But what opportunity does Zalusini now have, given all of the chaos in the military ranks, especially amongst the Azov guys, of which whatever fault falls on Zaluzni for, for D'Defka,

the Azov guys, he has always kept close to him. and they've always been very loyal to Zillusini. So how does he capitalize on this anger in... Well, indeed, absolutely. He has off guys against Zolensky. I mean, once again, Zalusini, Poroshenko and Klitsko. We can't forget that these guys are obvious. I mean, I don't think this is a secret.

They are aligned together now. They're coming together. I mean, Zaluzni has just joined Poroshenko's political plan. So, I mean, you know, there is, I mean, I think we can confidently say now, by the way, that we are in a pre-coup situation in Ukraine. I mean, there is confidence in the leadership amongst the soldiers is well on the way to total collapse. Some parts of the Ukrainian army, I mean, the Ukrainian army formally is still obeying orders. But it only needs a spark, it seems to me, for something to stand. to happen. So, I mean, it's looking dangerous. Now, it has to be said, Zelensky still has some

cards to play. The intelligence and security forces, you know, the SBU and people like that still back him. Apparently, a lot of the anger is being directed at Wudanath, the military intelligence chief. people are saying, you know, what military intelligence chief is this? He didn't predict anything of what would happen. In Haftevka, he's busy launching missiles and ships in the Black Sea, far away, no connection to the real war. He's sending people with guns to kill people in Russia, sending drones aimlessly into Russia. He's not actually doing his job, which is to provide the Ukrainian military with hard intelligence

about what the Russians, the capability the Russians have and what they're doing. So the result is that Badanov is also apparently being criticized, and that might draw him closer to Zelensky. So Zelensky still has that. He's still, for the moment, the constitutional president of Ukraine, though his term, his official term, ends fairly soon. And he took the step when he sacks zelousni to follow up by sacking the entire general staff basically i mean all the top people in the general staff were sacked together with zelousini so he's decapitated if you like the military leadership of ukraine replaced it with his own people i say zelensky i mean perhaps it should be said it's more likely he's chief of staff andre yermak who's actually making these decisions

or so the Ukrainian media imply. So he's not without residual strengths. And Zelensky, it would not be a straightforward thing to remove him. And of course, Zelensky has just shown that the Europeans still back him. They still treat him as the leader of Ukraine. So organizing a coup is not going to be a straightforward. forward thing at all. And Poroshenko and Kličko and Zaluzni might feel that it's still not enough time yet. But they've got what is clearly now a very angry third assault brigade,

the Azar Brigade, probably the other right-wing nationalist formations. They're also becoming increasingly angry. There's widespread anger within the military. The military itself is divided about this. One brigade, the soldiers of one brigade, actually called for a negotiated

peace with Russia. So, you see, then they are taking a different perspective of this. They are critical of Zelensky, but they don't necessarily want, you know, hard-line nationalists to take over in Kiev. They sense that the war is going wrong and being lost.

So they have a different view. But anyway, it could be that Zollusinian and Coe are going to say to themselves, of Dervka was a disaster. Confidence in Zelensky is being undermined. The best thing for us to do, however, is things have not yet reached critical mass.

He still has the support of his party in the parliament. Zelensky does. So let's just, he's still got the support of the, West. The Russians, as you rightly say, are still on the move. They're moving west from Abderfka. They're attacking other places. They're attacking a village called Laszotch, you know. Most reports say they've already captured it. Most reports say that they're moving westwards. They might move further west still. We don't know. They've just started a big offensive in Zaporosia, where the Ukrainians conducted their own offensive. Well, back in the summer, they're also attacking in Bachmann. They're also attacking

in all sorts of other places. So there may be a view that things have not yet reached absolute boiling point. We've got to wait just a little longer. But if that's their calculation, then that boiling point will probably be reached within weeks, not months. And of course, the question is, do they then go public? Because that's what they would need to do, in my opinion. They would need to say that Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president of Ukraine. He is making impossible decisions and issue a call for people to come to Mindana Square, to protest against him, and issue a call to the army to come.

out, or at least the military, the nationalist formations to support Zelensky's approval. They would need to go public. It can't be done in, it can't be done secretly. That is my view in this kind of situation that we're looking at now. Yeah, I wonder if the national, the nationalist, the Azov guys, these parties are enough on their own to bring down Zelensky's government. Of course, they would need the wider support of the military because we do have a military, Like you said, it is a military that's split, maybe not even in two, probably like three different factions. But the Azov is the most powerful or at least appears to be the most prominent and vocal part of that military. You see, I think this is the very good question because I think to answer your question, I think the nationalist four units, which is said to, by the way,

around a quarter of the Ukrainian military. So we're not talking about a small group of people. I think they do have enough strength, actually, to take over if they all came together and were united in doing that. I mean, I think that they would. The question about the larger military is not whether it would necessarily support such a step. It is whether it would

resist it. Obviously, the greater part of the army would not be involved. But if they simply stood by and let it happen, then, of course, probably these units, these nationalist units, would suffice to achieve that.

Again, the risk that Poroshenko Klitschko Zaluzni run, is that without some preparation, without a lot of preparation, without working on military officers, without persuading them that, you know, this new transfer of power, if it takes place, which would as to take place in a messy way, that it would in fact materially improve the situation. There's a real possibility, if you're still, start playing this kind of game, that you could be in a Russian 1917 type situation where the Tsar abdicates, the people who worked to bring him down, who were the liberal politicians

and the Duma, then discover that the army and everything around them is simply collapsing because legitimacy has been lost and the people in the military no longer have any real belief in victory or any real belief that the people who are taking over have either the constitutional mandate or to be straightforward about it, the intelligence and the ability to take over and turn things round. And of course, that doesn't even address the question of whether all of these Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting on the battlefronts even agree ideologically with what the nationalists units stand for. And we're not even looking at the question of what the West would say. So, you know, there are imponderables. There are lots of unanswered and unresolved issues.

I think the best solution for Poroshenko and Zollusioning company would be to persuade Zelensky to stand down or to peel off support for him from his party. But for the moment, that hasn't happened. And despite all of that, it still looks to me, as if politically the situation is deteriorating. And as I said, we are in what is increasingly looking like a pre-coup situation. I would say that the best chance for Poroshenko would be to not only try to convince is Olensky to step down, but maybe amend what you said, try to get the West to convince Alensky to step down.

Because I think within Ukraine, I don't think anyone's going to be able to convince, to persuade, whatever that word means to persuade Alensky to step down. I would have to come from the West. And Boroshenko does have connections, powerful connections in the West. Klitschko was in Munich. So that was interesting. He turned up in Munich at the security conference. And I guess that is the question of legitimacy. You brought up that word and you brought up 1917. I mean, the Tsar had legitimacy. But Zelensky never really had legitimacy. Everyone always wondered and continues to wonder, is this guy really running the show? I mean, you even just said, many people believe Yermak is really the good. guy calling the shots. A lot of people believe, rightly so, that the West is calling the shots. I mean, Zelensky always, always was and gave the appearance. I mean, he did it to himself.

He gave the appearance of being nothing more than a puppet figure. I mean, a lot of it, he brought on to himself, the green screens, the acting, all of these, these stunts that he would pull. So, I mean, he undermined his own legitimacy in a way. But, you know, I think the question is, what does the West do or what of forces inside Ukraine communicate to the West as far as the collapsing situation? You see, this is very interesting because you're absolutely right to point of fact that Klitschko, who is now clearly maneuvering against Zelensky, went to Germany and attended the Munich Security Conference. Now, the point about Klitschko is that he has connections in Germany. He's got long-standing connections with Germans.

did his brother, by the way. You know, remember, there's two brothers, both boxes. So it's confusing sometimes. But I believe that one of them, the other brother actually lives in Germany. I mean, all this did live in Germany. So what you, my impression is, the Klichko basically invited himself for long in order to work against Zelensky with the Germans, even as Zelensky was also trying to solidify his support with the Germans. Remember, there are only two countries now that really matter. Britain, I think, has burnt itself out. I think the British have given Ukraine everything they can. I think they can talk rhetorically, but they're no longer giving Ukraine arms and weapons, and they no longer have sway within the European Union. So,

They can make a lot of noise, but they don't really count. Germany still just about does count. So Glitchko goes to Germany. He's trying to work the Germans. Now, as to Poroshenko, I get the sense that he never had very easy relations with the European leaders. But he does have friends in the United States. And I think that's where Poroshenko will try to work. He's going to try to, so Glitchko will try to win over the Germans.

Poroshenko will try to win over the Americans. It will be very, very interesting to see what sort of contacts are taking place between Poroshenko and the US embassy in Kiev at the moment. Remember, Zelensky is so nervous of Poroshenko that he won't allow him to leave the country. He won't allow him to go to Washington to talk to Americans there.

So lots going on, lots of uncertainty going on, But again, it's important to say that we are looking at a rapidly deteriorating military picture. And if I could just return to that, there is one story that is being put about, which is all over the media here in the West, especially in Britain. But I think I always said the United States, that Avdewka is the first Russian victory since the Battle of Bahmert. That is completely wrong. The Russians won a conclusive victory in the summer when they defeated Ukraine's counteroffensive. That was a victory. I mean, you know, the fact that they always talk about the Ukrainian offensive having failed,

I've discussed this many times. I know I'm repeating myself, but it didn't fail. The Russians defeated it. The Russians won a defensive battle against Ukraine over the summer. a very important victory, perhaps the key one. And then, of course, a few weeks later, a few weeks ago, they captured Marinka as well. And that was also an important victory. So the thing to understand is we have had a string of Russian victories.

Bachmert, the summer offensive, Marinka, now Avdeyevka, the Russian army is getting bigger, the Russian army is getting stronger. And going back to what you originally said at the start of this programme, they still haven't started any serious big offensive at the moment. They're still talking about active defense, aggressive attrition, as I like to say. That is what they're doing. They have not yet deployed the main part of their army in any offensive, anywhere along the front lines. It is still only a fraction of the Russian army that is conducting these assaults. So it is a deteriorating picture, a rapidly deteriorating picture. I get the sense that the Americans are beginning to sense

this. And you can already see the media strategies that the Biden administration is so adept that starting to work in. I don't get the sense that the Europeans understand this. And I'm not sure that even the Poroshenko-Klichko Zolluznii trio understand this or, and of course I'm sure you Zelensky doesn't. Well, they're out for power. I mean, Zelenskyy wants to keep his power. The Klitskykoshenko is illusion. Hefotr, they want power.

So, yeah, I don't think anyone really understands what's really going on. They seem all in a panic as well as in a delusion. But, yeah, you're completely right. I would even argue, Alexander, that if you look at things from the Russian military perspective, from their standpoint, which is that this war was always about, attrition demilitarization. I would even say that the great offensive of Harkov and Hercos were even Russian victories. Because what the Russians achieved by pulling back is they were able to annihilate a large amount of Ukraine forces. And when you add it up, you know,

all of the attrition that the Russians have achieved over the last. two years has indeed brought Ukraine to where it is at this moment. I mean, you say it all the time, Brian at the New Atlas says it all the time. You know, you have to, the problem with the West is that they're not, they are fighting this war for territory. They want to show territorial gains. That's been their objective. And that's been their spin since day one, is we have to show a map that is changing in favor of Ukraine. That's how we're going to convince the public to go on board with this. But the Russians have not followed this, this line. They've said from the beginning, this is about demilitarization. It's not so much about the territorial gains. Yes, they are

gaining territory, but their number one goal is attrition towards the Ukraine military. And in every single instance, whether it's Harkov, whether it's Herzog, whether it's been the summer offensive, whether it's been Marinka, Bahmoud, and Abdivka, the Russians have. The Russians have, achieved annihilation of the Ukraine military in every single instance. This is exactly, absolutely correct. And can I just point out, we were mentioning this, we were discussing this right at the start of the special military operation. I mean, we were talking about the fact that the Russians, you know, I mean, I don't know to what extent, you know, Russian's Lee Klausovitz, but it's very much in the DNA. It is part of the Russian way

of war. We even did a live stream right at the start in which we're saying it's not capture of cities, it is the destruction of armies. And that's what the Russians do. That has always been the way the Russians conduct war. Because, I mean, you know, in some ways, it's the nature, the vast size of their country, means that it makes sense to do that. And, you know, destroy the enemy's army and you will achieve your objectives, because by destroying his army, you will destroy his will. His will and ability to resist. So at that point, once you've done that, everything else falls into your lap. And by the way, on that topic, General Rudskoi, who is the operations chief of the Russian general staff, in other words, a very senior officer. He's just given a long

interview to Krasnaya Zvezda, Red Star, which is the official newspaper of the Russian Ministry of defense. Anyway, he's come along and said, Ukraine still has combat capability. It's not even impossible that they might at some point try to launch another offensive. So what he's basically saying is that attrition, aggressive attrition, still has some way to go. They still, the Ukrainians still haven't completely lost combat capability. But obviously, we're getting ever-class. closer to that point. And we're getting closer to that point fast. I mean, the process is accelerating. It was slower before. It's now becoming faster. Just a final note. I just wonder why the collective West and all of the military experts and analysts, they can't come around

to understanding how the Russians fight war. I mean, this is always perplex me. I've always I've always wondered, how come they can't understand that the Russians are not trying to, at this point in time, trying to raise a flag in Tenebro Petrovsk at this moment. I mean, they're not concerned about these big arrow offensive and grabbing large swaths of territory. I wonder why they can't understand that. I mean, we understand the war that they're trying to fight. We understand that everyone understands. They want to show territory. They say it all the time.

We're going to get back this and we're going to get back that and we're going to get creme. and see of Azov and we're going to get all this territory. Everything's defined in terms of territory for the collective West. Understood. Understood. Whether you think that's a right or wrong strategy, okay. But I wonder why they can never understand what the Russians are doing. It's so bizarre.

Yeah, because first of all, I mean, these people are essentially, and let's say to get amateurs, they see everything. And we've discussed as Betty times in presentational terms. They cannot conceive a war conducted in this way. They want war. Their entire understanding of war is, you know, gaining territory, because that's what looks, you know, effective, you know, in the movies. You know, you just have vast tank arm, it's advancing fast,

gaining thousands of kilometers of territories, storming cities, all that kind of thing. And, you know, if you talk to someone like Jake Sullivan, this is important for him because that's how he's going to persuade people that he's winning, long grinding attrition wars, focusing on destroying an enemy's army. It's not something that really forms part of his playbook, or that he has ever encountered or imagined. Now, there are people who do understand these things in the West.

I mean, remember, during the Cold War, the West was pitied against the Soviet Union. There were lots of people who were analyzing the Soviet Union of the Soviet military. within, you know, the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies, in the CIA and wherever. And they did come to an understanding of this. The Pentagon commissioned a military historian, a man called David Glantz,

and he did an epic series of studies about how the Soviets won the Second World War on the eastern front, and which illustrated an awful lot about, explain an awful lot about the way the Soviets think and conduct war. All of that has been lost. Now, I'm sure you saw it a couple of days ago. An article appeared in The Guardian, which discussed the state of Russian military industries. And you've, I mean, I've discussed,

I've visited a number of Russian factories. I've said that they are all built in ways they organize in a different way from the West. They have inbuilt surge capabilities. They have enormous capacities. They are designed to be able to increase production very fast when they need to do. This article in The Guardian, two years after the special military operation begins, finally you have somebody acknowledge that very same thing

we were talking about two years ago I do not set myself up as an expert on these matters I mean I've just visited a few factories that's all I've done but I said I know that there are people in the West who do have that degree of knowledge and sure enough

one of them came to me contacted me after I did that program. I'm not going to say who it was, but somebody who has colossal experience in this area and, well, who has been historically somebody who has provided information to Western governments, a person who really understands the Russian military industries backwards. Still, nobody has reached out to him. He knows all the people who do know about these things, no one has reached out to them because they, the Western leaders are so, lives so much in a bubble, are so focused on their own thing. They don't want to hear. They don't want to hear about the problems. They don't want to learn about the Russian way of war.

They don't want to learn about Russian military industries because for them, that would challenge their own beliefs. It would mean contradicting the things they get from all their friends in the think tanks. And in effect, the entire expert community that was created during the Cold War is just going disregarded. They just don't want to hear it. I don't want to hear it. Like children. They're like children. They're like children. And they just go on as a result, making the same mistakes time and time again. They're just repeating the same mistakes. And when it all begins to go wrong,

they blame the Republicans in the House or something of that kind, or Donald Trump or something like that. Because they don't want to listen to those people who really know. And they are there. Lots of them are. I mean, you know, they're older today,

but they still have that experience. experience and that information and could provide that kind of advice. All right. We will end it there. The durand. Dotlocals.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, bitchchew, telegram, rock fin, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, 15% off all t-shirts.

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