The Duran Podcast - China takes a hard line with Yellen

Episode Date: April 10, 2024

China takes a hard line with Yellen

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Janet Yellen's trip to China. And Janet Yellen was, at times, she was talking about cooperation with China. She said that the U.S. is not looking to decouple from China. But at other times, she was taking a very antagonistic approach to China, sending the usual warnings of sanctions. and cutting off trade and punishing China for human rights violations and stuff like that. So it was an interesting trip from Yelland. What were your thoughts with Yellen's trip to China? Well, the first thing to say is that the administration,

the Biden administration, has taken this trip very, very seriously. It seems that one of the purposes of Biden's call to Xi Jinping, the one we had the other day, talked about the other day, was to get him to agree to allow Yellen to come to China. And she was there, she's been there for six days. I mean, it's a long, long trip meeting all sorts of people. And of course, she's always presented as the China dove, the person who wants to see relations between China and the United States remain good. And she's obviously had training, for example, in how to use chopsticks. People noticed the dexterity in using chopsticks,

and a lot of that sort of mood was there. But actually, when you unpack what she really had to say, yes, in general terms, you know, we're not seeking to decouple from China, we want to maintain the relationship exactly as it is. But in practice, when you actually go to the details, not only just unyielding, but attempts to pressure the Chinese. So still talking about restricting high-tech technology. You know, to China, this is now all explained or justified on national security grounds, by the way, but this is it.

I mean, it's the Chinese themselves, and I absolutely agree with them on this, believe that the real purpose is to try to prevent China upgrading its technological prowess as an industrial power. There's lots of complaints off-scene from other US officials, top US officials, that the Chinese economic model is putting the United States at an unfair trade advantage. That may be true, but I mean, and the Chinese are what they are. I mean, why complain about that? I really am not sure. At least the Chinese are not going to be impressed by that.

But the other thing, and I mean, this is the specific thing, is, and we discussed this previously, one of the major purposes that she went there, was to warn the Chinese, or try to warn the Chinese, and to underline Biden's warning to see Xi Jinping, about Chinese China support for Russia.

And we had a whole amount of commentary now that the Chinese are providing all kinds of military and technological and industrial support to the Russians. They're providing Russia with machine tools and chips, advanced chips,

and that they're even providing the Russians with satellite imaging to help the Russians identified targets in Ukraine and all that sort of thing. And all of this accompanied by claims, you know, warnings from Blinken to the Europeans, that this is also going on. And a lot of it seems to have been about that with Yellen coming to China, warning Chinese companies that, you know, if they continue with trade with Russia,

then, you know, they face sanctions from the United States. that seems to me to have been her primary message and the reaction from China has been very interesting firstly I mean they've again made absolutely clear

that the Chinese Russian relationship is not up for discussion I mean Sisi Jinping said that to Biden the Chinese officials that Yellen met with they told her the same

thing. They've just extended an invitation to Lavrov, who is, I believe, leaving for China today. I mean, he's on his way to Beijing. Word is that he's preparing the ground for a trip to China by Putin himself. So the Chinese unyielding on the issue of relations with Russia. But a whole series of very interesting commentaries now appearing across the Chinese media. First of all, telling us that in his conversation with Biden, Xi Jinping took an unusually strong line. I'm about Taiwan, but not just about Taiwan, but about all sorts of other issues. Commentaries in the Chinese media about how the United States is debt problems are now so bad that the United States is going to need China's help there. And for that, for that,

reason the US needs to be nice to China really you know that work specifically used about the most interesting thing of all which is comments that the United States is trapped in Ukraine and trapped in the Middle East and therefore can't risk starting anything new against China in Taiwan or the South China Sea so the overall senses and I think this isn't just, you know, blaster, is that the Chinese actually feel that they're in a very strong position, actually, with the Americans, that the Americans have massively miscalculated, especially over Ukraine, that they're bogged down there, that far from becoming, them becoming stronger and the Russians becoming weaker, it is turning out the other way around. And that,

given that that is so the Chinese are in a good position to take a hard line on other matters and of course the unspoken thing which is that from China's point of view supporting Russia is turning out to be a good investment because it is tying America down yeah you're hearing a lot of talk now from the collective West media even Stoltenberg, actually, in Stoltenberg, about how it is China that has turned the tide of the war for Russia. It's China's support of the war economy. That's what Stoltenberg said.

China's support of Russia's war economy. That's what's really made the difference. Blinken told the Europeans at the NATO summit pretty much the same thing, that it's China's support of Russia that is making the difference. What are your thoughts about this? this narrative, is, is this the way that the collective West is going to explain away Russia's success? You know, we had them. We had them right where we wanted that. We had Putin, you know, right at the edge of defeat, but then Russia, but then China came in and, you know, they,

they ruined everything. Or is this more about demonizing, villainizing China, kind of shifting things over now to looking at China and probably getting something started started up with China. It's both. But of course, first and foremost, it's the first. I mean, everything has turned out wrong. I mean, Russia's economy has absorbed the sanctions blow. Russia is outproducing the West in weapons. The West isn't able to compete with Russia in weapons. Now, that is an incredibly difficult thing for Western leaders to accept. I mean, it is so far out beyond their expectations that it is almost beyond their imaginations. So they have to try and rationalize it and explain it in some way. So the way they explain it is, you know, it's not the Russians doing it all by

themselves. It's actually the Chinese. The Chinese are going there and is they who reducing the shells or, you know, in effect, reducing the shells or making it possible for the Russians to produce the shells? It is their. chips that are going into Russian missiles and all of that kind of thing. So we had Putin exactly what you said, exactly. We had Putin exactly where we wanted him. But along come these terrible people from Beijing and they mess things all up for us. Now, there's a number of points to make about this. Firstly, there probably is an element of truth to this. I mean, you know, I have no doubt that the Russians have had a certain amount of technological and economic support from the Chinese.

I don't mean that they've imported weapons from the Chinese. There's no sign that they have or that they've imported shells from China or anything of that kind. But definitely, the Russians do import chips from China. This has been a long-standing trade. They're no doubt ramping up their buying chips in China since the war began. No doubt they're also. They're also, are ramping up their buying of machine tools. They used to buy machine tools in the Netherlands and Germany and to some extent, Italy. Now, increasingly, they buy them from China, and the Chinese are not preventing them doing that. So, I mean, there is an element of truth to that.

But, of course, it is a huge exaggeration. I mean, it's not China the West is fighting in Ukraine. It is Russia. it's not the Russian economy, the Chinese economy that they're taking. If it was the Chinese economy that they were taking on, it would be a completely different situation. I mean, the Chinese could probably make one or two million shells a month, not a couple of hundred thousanders the Russians are doing.

Just saying, I mean, if the Chinese really started to help the Russians in that kind of serious way, We would be seeing the signs of it immediately in a much more profound way than we are seeing at the moment. So, you know, they're exaggerating. They're overstating things hugely. And they're doing it first and foremost for narrative construction. But beyond that, there's also no doubt as well that in the United States there is this strong hostility to China. they are trying to win over the Europeans to adopt that as well.

There's still some resistance from some people in Europe. Schultz apparently is planning to fly to China with a German delegation to go with him. He's still trying to cling on to that economic relationship. But overall, you can see the trend. Europeans gradually also following where the Americans lead them. becoming more antagonistic to the Chinese as well. But all of this is true. All of this is happening.

But the Chinese are looking at this now, I think, in a somewhat different way. I think they've now come to accept that the open door to the United States is closing, that the United States is not going to take Chinese imports. They probably think the same is going to happen with the Europeans. The Chinese, however, are recalibrating their trade, they're building up their new trading systems, India is becoming a big market, Russia's becoming a big market, other countries in the global south are becoming markets as well. Countries like Vietnam import goods from China, especially machine tools, equipment, that kind of thing.

They then set up factories using these Chinese things and they make the product, the consumer products that China used to make and which are then resold to the United States. So there's an awful lot of that going on. The Chinese economy has stabilized. There were problems in the property, real estate markets. That seems to have been overcome. Growth has been steady. I think the Chinese say to themselves, look, that relationship with the Americans,

gone. The divorce that we were talking about some years ago has essentially happened. It's now more than anything else a geopolitical relationship or is gradually becoming that and the Americans are trapped. They're bogged down in Ukraine and to a lesser extent in the Middle East. So this is the moment where we can take hardline over Taiwan and the South China Sea and promote our own interests. And that's what the Chinese media is saying. Yeah. And there's a big difference between China providing machine tools or chips to Russia

and 40 countries in the collective West providing storm shadows and scalps and tanks and leopards and high Mars and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine. So I mean, I think it's very strange. for blinking to come out and warn the European partners about China's involvement with Russia when they're knee-deep in Project Ukraine. A point, by the way, which the Chinese never cease making. I mean, they say, you know, well, you're coming along. You're criticizing us because, you know, we maintain normal trading relations with the Russians.

Look at what you do. Look at the kind of support you're providing to Ukraine. We are coming up with peace proposals. you're coming up with more tanks and bombs and shells and weapons and all those sorts of things. Don't blame off for the fact that there's a war. And if the war isn't going as you planned, well, you know, that's your mistake. It's not something that we brought about. Exactly.

So what's going on in North Korea? The United Nations and North Korea. There's something that people aren't really talking much about. But I think this was very expected to be quite honest for Russia. China, very expected given all the sanctions and everything that the collective West has done to Russia. And it connects exactly with what we've just been saying about the Chinese specifically now taking an increasingly hard line, though on this issue, they're also hiding to some extent behind the Russians. So way back when North Korea exploded his first nuclear device, I think it was 2009.

Security Council passes the first, you know, sanctions. There's been lots and lots of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council on North Korea that hasn't affected or slowed down in any way the North Korea nuclear program. North Korea now is a major nuclear power. The Chinese and the Russians have gradually come to accept that. I mean, you might not be happy about that, but that's what they, done. The United States has accepted the fact that India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. The Chinese and the Russians have accepted that North Korea is a nuclear power. Russian relations

with the West are now terrible. Chinese relations with the West are becoming less good. The Security Council set up an enforcement mechanism to enforce the sanctions against North. North Korea that the Security Council had imposed over its nuclear program. That enforcement mechanism, the team that enforces it, has to get authorization from the Security Council every year. It's a rolling thing. So this time, the Chinese and the Russians came to the Security Council and said, look, we don't really feel happy about this. North Korea is now nuclear power. This is irreversible.

Relations between North Korea and the West are terrible, but that's as much the West's doing as it is North Korea's. We think that the sanctions having clearly failed. It's time to wind them down. So yes, this time we are prepared to vote for an extension of this enforcement mechanism. but we want the whole sanctions regime modified the need to be sunset clauses. We need to find a way towards lifting the sanctions.

Entirely predictably, the United States said no, and its allies said no. The Chinese abstained on the reconstitution of the enforcement mechanism. The Russians voted against it. The Russians have a veto in the Security Council. that means that the enforcement mechanism is now ended. That means that the sanctions are now in place, still in place. There is no means to track whether or not they're being breached. It means that Russian, North Korean trade can continue unimpeded to a great extent.

The Americans might threaten the Russians over that, but what realistically can they do? They've already sanctioned the Russians to the Gills. And of course, the Chinese will quietly trade with North Korea also, but probably putting a Russian flag, whatever it is they send to North Korea or buy from there. So, I mean, it's in effect the end of the sanctions against North Korea. And obviously, you can see why the Russians would do it,

because they've developed this burgeoning relationship with North Korea. over the last year, you know, Kim Jong-un and Putin meeting, Kim Jong-un visiting Russia, Putin apparently planning to visit North Korea himself fairly soon. So you can understand why the Russians were doing. The Chinese are doing also because they want a strong and stable North Korea. And at the same time, they feel they're in a strong position with the Americans, America to bog down in the Middle East, bog down even more in Ukraine, escalating debt problems at the US, the Chinese feel they can take this line over North Korea, and there won't be any real consequences.

Amazing how things work out, uh? Trump, Trump tried to normalize relations with North Korea. The neocons in Bolton, they sabotaged that. they then got their war with Russia. They got the proxy war with Russia via Neo-Con Biden. And now you see North Korea aligning with Russia moving closer with Russia and China because you also have states like South Korea and Japan and other countries in the region, also providing weapons to Ukraine as well as. placing sanctions on Russia. It's incredible how everything completely flipped around.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, you know, who would have thought, I mean, I'm going to say, I mean, you know, who would have imagined that, you know, imposing sanctions on Russia might actually one day mean that the Russians say to themselves, well, you know, why don't we start opening up close relations with North Korea again, which we once had. And, you know, we always had reasonably good relations with North Korea. Why don't we just revive all of those? I mean, obviously, none of the geniuses in Washington thought that might happen. But of course, you know, it has. I mean, you know, it's the same story over everything else.

I mean, you know, let's assume Stoltenberg and Blinken and all of these people are right about the Russians importing more machine tools and more chips from China. I mean, why was that a surprise? Why construct an elaborate sanctions regime against Russia and say to yourself, well, you know, if we stop the Russians importing chips from us, well, rather than crank them out of washing machines, what they're really going to do is important them for China, which the Chinese are happy to sell them,

because our relations with China aren't that too good either? I mean, you know, it's very strange that these supposedly clever, people never think out these things. They never do. And things always boomerang against them. Boomerang back out. Absolutely. If you're going to be horrid to the Chinese over Taiwan,

or you're going to go back on the things you promised over Taiwan and start arresting Chinese executives when they're in transit through Canada and sanctioning their companies. Well, why wouldn't the Chinese say to themselves? Well, in that case, we're going to supply chips to the Russians and machine tools. and develop our relations. It's very odd how neocons, as I said, never think these things through. But the reason that they never do is because they don't talk with people outside their own bubble. They talk all the time to people who agree with themselves. And of course, what they do is they urge each other on,

rather than say, well, hold on a moment, just think, we've got the situation, the Russians, the Chinese, North Koreans, they're all, you know, on reasonably good terms, do we really want to antagonize each and every one of them at the same time? It might possibly happen that they'll all come together and align against us. But, you know, nobody talks like that because amongst this crowd, that kind of discussion never happens. agreed remember the 500,000 shells that South Korea gave to the US, then the US gave to Ukraine yeah South Korea should have thought things through as well. Well, absolutely, of course. But I mean, their president is a weak man apparently who is very, very much in the American camp, thinks very much, does very much what the Americans tell them. I understand a lot of people in South Korea are very unhappy.

But there it is. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, but shoot, telegram, rock fin, then Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop, pick up some limited edition merch. Link is in the description box down below. Take care.