The Duran Podcast - Complicated relationship between Iran and Russia

Episode Date: September 6, 2025

Complicated relationship between Iran and Russia

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Iran. And it does look like that we are heading towards some sort of a second round to the 12-day war. I don't know when we could be getting some sort of a conflict, a continuation of a conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran. I don't know if it'll be in a month or in six months. but all the signs are pointing towards towards continued escalation to the point where we are going to get some sort of military action.

I think the big story from last week was the Germans, the French, and the British. Basically, the E3 is what they're called, basically saying that Iran is not in compliance with the JCPOA terms and so now you're going to have the snapback of sanctions in accordance with a UN resolution. resolution and this has angered, not only Iran, but it has really angered the Russians and the

Chinese as well. So anyway, what are your thoughts on what's happening with Iran? Absolutely. I should say, first of all, that this decision by the Europeans, I mean, it is intrinsically inherently absurd. I mean, they're saying that Iran is in violation of its obligations under the JCPOA. this is the same JCPOA that the United States pulled out of in 2018. It is the same JCPOA, which the United States and Israel so far disregarded that they launched attacks on Iran attacking nuclear sites that were being inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency It is the same JCPOA, which everybody acknowledges that Iran was in full compliance with for the first three years.

And of which the Europeans were never in full compliance with, because contrary to their obligations under the JCPOA, even during the period when Iran was in complete compliance, the Europeans never fully lifted sanctions. So, I mean, it's a bizarre thing to suddenly turn around and accuse Iran of non-compliance with the JCPOA. Everybody can see the reality, which is that the JCPOA is dead. And the reason it is dead is because the United States, the Europeans and the Israelis collectively killed it to talk about non-compliance. it would ask Iran to comply with an agreement that all of the other parties are in breach of. Now, I make this point because I think it is a point that needs to be made. We should not let ourselves be sidetracked by the absurdity of this.

But anyway, let's talk about the decision itself, that the worthy Security Council resolutions back in 2015, which said that if Iran violated the terms of the JCPOA, then sanctions that were in place, which would be lifted if Iran complied with the JCPOA, that they would all be snapped back. And this is what the Europeans are now doing. The urgency is that the JCPOA was supposed to last a year. that brings us to October, the JCPOA dates from 2015, that brings us to October 2025.

If there was no declaration from the Europeans of Iranian noncompliance, the UN sanctions would expire at the end of October. So what they want to do is to keep those sanctions in place. These are the UN sanctions now. Bear in mind, the US has its own sanctions. the Europeans have their own sanctions. They're all going to be remaining place anyway. That they want the cover of saying that these sanctions are UN sanctions.

And that's the theoretical reason why they've done it. The Russians, the Chinese, various other countries, are saying, this is nonsense. This is ridiculous. You can't do this. you can't as countries which are in breach of the JCPOA accuse another country of being in breach of the JCPOA. If you do claim that UN sanctions continue beyond October, we won't recognise it and we will simply disregard those sanctions.

So that's what's happened. But the real purpose of all of this is not to snap back sanctions. It's to declare Iran in breach of the JCPOA, so to justify a renewal of the war. Everybody knows this. Everybody's talking about it. Once again, they're weaponizing the international organizations. It reminds me of the IAEA, right? In a way, the IAEA did the same thing.

They came out with that report, you know, two, three days before Whitkoff was going to meet with Adakshi. they were going to have their seventh meeting to try and find a resolution to the tensions. And the IAEA comes up with this report and we get the attack. And now we have the E3 coming out and saying that Iran has not fulfilled the requirements of the JCPOA. So we need more sanctions on, we need the UN sanctions on Iran. And now Trump and Netanyahu, they can come out and sell this to the American. people to the Israeli people, they can come out and say, well, you see, even the Europeans are saying that Iran is not complying with the JCPOA, and people are going to believe it.

Yeah. Right? I mean, this is the purpose of this move. What, I mean, people that are following this story understand what's going on, but people that are not following this story are not going to understand what's going on. What is Iran doing about this? What is China and Russia in the context of Bricks and the SCO meeting? Are they talking about this?

Are they preparing for a round two in this conflict? I cannot imagine that they are not. I'm sure that they will all be talking with the Iranians. The Russians and the Chinese will be talking to the Iranians. And they'll be saying, for heaven's sake, tell us what your plans are. and what you're going to do when the Israelis finally do attack you. I should say that relations between Russia and Iran in particular go through constant strains and bumps. And the problems, in my opinion, come clearly from within Iran.

So Putin recently disclosed that the Russians some time ago offered to help Iran. with its air defense system. And the Iranians turned the offer down. And I don't think there's any doubt about that. By the way, the Iranians have never contradicted it. The Russians say that when the partnership agreement, the strategic partnership agreement with Iran was being negotiated, the Russians suggested that it contained some kind of defense provision, supposedly similar to the one between Russia.

Russia and North Korea, but the Iranians again said no. And then to absolute Russian fury, just over the last couple of days, there's been a series of articles in the Iranian media and statements by an Iranian official. Or I do think he's exactly an official. Anyway, he's somebody who has a certain degree of public prominence in Iran saying that the Russians facilitated the Israeli attacks on Iran by providing the Israelis with intelligence information about Iranian air defense positions and nuclear sites. The foreign ministry issued a ferocious statement in Moscow saying that this story is absolute

and complete nonsense. and the Iranians themselves, the Iranian government, also went out and said that the story was completely untrue. But you could see the problem. There are people in Iran. I don't, by the way, mean to suggest that these are not patriotic people in their own way. People who are, you know, I don't mean to suggest that they're pro-American or that they're pro-Israeli or anything of that kind. But they continue to be deeply suspicious, especially. of Russia, perhaps to some extent of China too.

And I suspect that this is complicating all steps to try to organize proper military resistance and help from these big Eurasian states, from the Russians and the Chinese in particular. So there is this friction. I think that things could be done both by the Russians and the Russians. and the Chinese, that could help Iran quite a lot. They could provide Iran with a lot of intelligence assistance, early warnings, for example, of Israeli aircraft taking off and preparing to attack them. They would also, well, I mean, there's apparently work now,

the apparently now is work on trying to finally create a unified air defense system. As we discussed in a program that we did recently, the Iranian Supreme Leaders, National Security Advisor, and Iran's defense minister recently visited Moscow and had a meeting with Putin. Pezishkan is going to China and he's meeting with Xi Jinping and with Putin as well, as part of the SEO discussions. So there is all of this going on. But, and Iran itself has conducted an internal reorganization.

It's set up a defense council. But unless these, this friction that exists is finally, these issues are finally resolved between Iran and its erstwhile allies. I suspect that Iran will always find that it's more vulnerable. to these attacks, then it would otherwise be. And that is the reality that has to be faced. Yeah, well, Iran is a member of BRICS. Why should there be this resistance to getting help from China and Russia?

And it doesn't have to be military help. I mean, it could be diplomatic help as well. I mean, there's a lot of ways that Russia and China and all the members of BRICS can help Iran. I just don't understand this resistance to getting this help. I mean, what's Iran going to do if you? if they have to face both the United States and Israel on their own. I mean, maybe they can.

Maybe they can face them on their own. But I would think that they would be in a better position if they did have some support. Well, the Russians at least are becoming increasingly exasperated about it. And I mean, they're not making, they're not holding back. I mean, if you read the Russian foreign ministry statement, I mean, it is extremely strong. And, I mean, all of those media reports and commentaries in Iran, and those statements. I mean, they were clearly made with the intention of sabotaging cooperation between Iran and Russia.

I've already said that there is a long and very difficult history between Iran and Russia that continues right up until the 1940s. And it's perhaps worth pointing out that in the 1980s, during the Iran-Ira war, the Soviet Union, continued to arm Saddam Hussein's armies that were at that time fighting Iran. So there are those tensions that exist then. But I think there is something else, which is that Iran,

especially since the Iranian revolution of 1979, has prized its independence, its complete sovereignty, and as it would like to believe, its self-sufficiency, a very, very great deal. And I think there is a very great resistance within Iran to doing things that might compromise that. And I get to say something else, and this is perhaps rather unattractive, but Iran does have a significant defense, industrial defense sector as well. I mean, they do produce all sorts of types of weapons, including air defense weapons.

And I can imagine that there might be some people within it who are saying, well, we don't need weapons from Russia because we can produce equivalent and weapons that are at least as good as the Russians ourselves. That, by the way, is not true. I mean, Iran doesn't have that level of technological expertise that the Russian. Russians and the Chinese do. But if you follow Iranian commentaries, you do find all kinds of claims from people within the Iranian defense sector that Iranian equivalents to the S-300s are as good as the S-300s and things of that kind. Yeah. Just a final question. If you had to put a timeline on when you think something's going to happen, how do you see it? I mean, do you see it happening

soon, sooner or later? Like 2025 or do you think it's going to get pushed back? I think more likely than not, it will be 2025. My sense is that there's also a political clock in Israel. I mean, there is a slow burn political crisis there. And I think that the Netanyahu government will want to take action as quickly as it can. I think that there are certain things that need to happen. Israel needs to rearm to some extent.

at least. I mean, their own missile stockpiles and air defense spot stockpiles, as we know, were critically depleted. So they will need to re-arm to some extent. They will need also to organize new plans and rethink their attack, because the original attack that they launched back in June, I think everybody who follows what happened now basically acknowledges didn't go terribly well. So my guess is that it will be this year, but after the Security Council meetings in October, the ones where the snapback is supposed to happen. But it's not impossible it could happen sooner than this. I mean, it could happen at any time, but probably more towards the end of the year than now. But the Iranians,

by the way, just to say, would be very, very unwise to count on that. I mean, they should assume that an attack might happen literally tomorrow. Final question, what do you make of the strategy of decapitation strikes that Israel is now employing regularly? I mean, they employed it during the first round of the conflict with Iran. We have news from the New York Times, which says that Israel did indeed try to take out Bezashgian. They actually were tracing and monitoring the mobile phones

of his drivers and his bodyguards. And so they did try to assassinate the president of Iran. And then we have the recent assassination of the Prime Minister of Yemen. Do you think that this is a strategy that Israel and the United States might employ as far as going after Iran to take out the leadership before any type of military action or maybe take out the leadership in anticipation that this will cause the entire regime to collapse? I think that the entire strategy is going to center on a decapitation strike. because how else do you achieve regime change in Iran? I mean, it's quite clear that whilst the leadership remains in place, the regime in Iran, the governmental system there will survive.

So they are going to, I mean, the first decapitation strike they conducted in June failed, but they're going to try again and they're going to try to do it on a bigger scale. And I'm going to make a guess that this time, they're going to try to involve the United States from the first day and try to have the Americans involved to a much greater extent than was the case in June. So we must be prepared for that. And the Iranians needs to prepare and think about that. I mean, when the attack happened in June, the Iranians were caught by surprise. They mustn't obviously allow that to happen again.

And the attacks on Hezbollah that took place last year, and the attack showed how infiltrated Hezbollah was and how its communication systems were being monitored by the Israelis. And the Iranians need to make the same assumption that the same thing is happening to them. Today, we've seen how cells were, Israeli cells were able to operate inside Iran. The Iranians claim that they've cleared them up.

I think it would be very complacent for them to assume that. So I have no doubt that the next attempt will be a decapitation strike. Now, all right. We will end the video there. The durand.orgas.com. We are on X and Rumble and Telegram and Odyssey as well. So go to the DRAD shop as well and pick up some of our merch. There's a link of the description box down below.

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