The Duran Podcast - Conflict with all three great powers. Greenland back on the table.

Episode Date: December 25, 2025

Conflict with all three great powers. Greenland back on the table.

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Greenland. Greenland is back on Trump's table, and he's even appointed an envoy. Greenland's got their own Keith Kellogg. And the goal for Trump is to take Greenland. He said it a couple of days ago at the Mar-a-Lago, it was Mar-a-Lago press conference with a media announcement, with the Trump class battleships and Cindy got questions from reporters. And they asked him about Greenland

and Trump says we need it for national security. Plain and simple. He says it's not about minerals. It's not about any of that stuff. He says there's Russian ships, there's Chinese ships, and we need it for national security, plain and simple.

And when he was asked if this is some kind of counter move to China or any of that, he said, no, he's just, look, we just need it. We want it and we need it and we're going to get it and I've got my envoy now as well. So what are your thoughts? A governor of Louisiana, by the way, an acting, actually an acting governor of Louisiana. Yes, I think, I think again, Trump returns to this because I think that this is increasingly

actually consistent with the foreign and defense and security policies that the administration is adopting. Now, this takes us back to the strategic. security strategy review that was published about 10 days ago. And we discussed it extensively. We talked about how this is all about spheres of influence. And that was very consistent with what we had been talking about very early on in Trump's administration, that he seemed to be thinking much more about spheres of influence. And not just Trump, but other people in the administration too. the people who wrote the security strategy review document.

And you can absolutely see how Greenland fits in, because Latin America, South America, is going to be part of the US sphere of influence. The Western Hemisphere has to be part of the US sphere of influence. That obviously is going to include Canada, but it has to include Greenland as well. And if you're thinking purely in terms, if you're thinking in terms of spheres of influence, this makes absolute sense.

Now, what is clear to me is that Trump is talking about this, but he's not the only person in Washington who is thinking this way. It clearly goes beyond him. And if you look at the geography, if you look at positions in the Arctic, where the Russians are very strong and getting stronger, where the Chinese are less strong, but are also getting stronger, where the United States needs also to be involved. And if you are looking at control of the North Atlantic, in other words, securing the sea to the west, to the east, sorry, of your heartland, the American continents, the western hemisphere,

controlling Greenland makes complete sense. So I'm going to make a guess. I think we're going to start to see over the next few months and over the next three years, a concerted effort by the Trump administration to get Greenland brought fully under American control. For Trump, also, this is going to be an issue of his legacy. He's talk about building battleships

also seems to be consistent with all of this. I think if the Danes are not taking this seriously, then they are being very, very fruilish. And of course, the Danish Prime Minister, Mrs. Fredrickson talks all the time about the threat from Russia, but perhaps, you know, she would to ask itself a little bit about what the Americans are asking of Denmark and perhaps needs to be awake to this, just saying. Well, what could they do? What can Denmark do? What can the EU do? What can the EU do? do. I was reading Callas' post about this, and she's too afraid to even name the United States in her post on X. She's too afraid to actually say the United States is talking about Greenland.

She doesn't want to name the United States. That's how frightened she is. And Denmark's also going to be frightened, and the EU is going to be frightened. I mean, but they're not approaching the United States as equals or peers. They have to deal with the United States as vassals. And now, because of the position they placed themselves with, they put themselves in with regards to Project Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia and giving up their energy, the energy independence, you could say. They did have energy independence when they were working with Russia. They had Russia, they had Qatar, they had the United States. They've given up their energy independence. They did. energy and dependence, and now they're fully reliant on the United States.

So, I mean, what cards do they have? What leverage do they have? If Trump really presses this thing, he can get it. Absolutely. He can. I mean, this is, by the way, this is, you put your finger on an important thing. There are three great powers in the world at this moment in time. At this particular juncture in time, there are three great powers. There's the United States.

There's Russia and there's China. I mean, that may not be forever, but that's the situation at the moment. The European Union is not a great power. No individual European state is a great power. The European Union taken together is in deep economic problems, and it is not a military power. And despite all the claims about rearmament, we've discussed in many programs, why it cannot be one and can never be one. It has managed to be in conflict with all three great powers at one at the same time. It's in a state of undeclared, well, I won't say war, but something very close to war with Russia.

Its relations with China are deteriorating every month. And it is dependent on a United States, which is now thinking increasingly in terms of spheres of influence and of the Western Hemisphere. It is gambling on the Democrats coming back to the presidency in 2028. But I'm going to make a guess. By 2028, the world will have continued to change in a further multipolar direction. It may be that whoever is the U. Democrat president in 28, assuming that the Democrats win, might not be as accommodating to the Europeans as they imagine.

Because, you know, I mean, American national interests will increasingly point in a different direction. Well, let me ask you a very simple question. Let's assume that Trump takes Greenland. Let's just assume. I'm not saying that's going to happen. I'm not saying I'm for this to happen. No. But let's assume he manages it.

Yeah. And the Republicans lose. And then you have President Gavin Newsom or President Kamala Harris. What are the Europeans think is going to happen, that they're going to reverse the United States' taking of Greenland? And Kamala Harris is going to say, oh, I'm sorry, you, Trump did that. So here's Greenland back to you guys. No. It's not going to happen.

So, I mean, what are they expecting from, I mean, the strategy of trying to wait Trump out, which is absolutely what they're trying to do? Yes. What is it going to give them? It's not going to give them anything. It's just going to mean that you're going to have a debt. Democrat president, a Democrat administration, which gets along with them on a personal level, but it's still not going to view them as peers or allies. I mean, at the end of the day, it was Biden that led them into this mess.

Yes. What kind of a friend is that, right? I mean, you know. Exactly. Now, of course, if it had been different, if they'd pursue different policies altogether, if they'd been allies of the United States but not vassals, which is what they were in the days of, say, Schroeder and Shirek, if they'd had good relations with China, if they'd had good relations with Russia. And by the way, let me make it very clear, that does not mean agreeing with everything that China and Russia do.

It doesn't mean accepting Chinese exports without any pushback or Russian policy. without any pushback. But I mean, avoiding the kind of rancorous, rancid relations that they have now, with China, they're deteriorating fast, with Russia, they're not even talking to the Russians anymore. Well, if there had been a big American move to take over Greenland, well, they would have been able to bring in the other two great powers and there would have been an issue about it. And the Russians and the Chinese would have stepped in. And I'm not saying it would have prevented it, but it would have meant that the Europeans would have had cards to play. They don't have any cards now.

They have no cards at all because they are totally dependent on the US. In fact, their dependence is increasing. It's increasing economically. It is increasing in energy terms. You mentioned Kayakales, being unable to even mention the US. by name. If you look at the Baltic states, they are totally dependent now for security on the US. They are so antagonized Russia that they are now terrified and have reason to be terrified of Russia. Before, they didn't have reason to be terrified of Russia because the Russians

never particularly like them. They weren't that interested in them. No, the Russians absolutely can't stand them and might indeed see them as a security threat because of all of the talk and debates and discussions about closing the Baltic to Russian shipping. So, I mean, you know, for all of these reasons, the EU and the Baltic states, the northern core, even as they become increasingly frightened and alarmed by what the Americans are doing, their dependence upon the Americans grows every day, even as the Americans themselves are having increasing doubts about the longevity and purpose of their security commitment to Europe. And that, I think, is going to carry over into the next administration, whoever leads it. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

It's not only Russia that the Baltics have pissed off, China as well. Absolutely, yeah. They've decided to take on. China and Russia the Baltic states it's insanity and the U.S. is far, far away far away right? So I mean, it's madness

a callus can't even get a meeting with Rubio Rubio doesn't even want to meet with her and these are facts she tries to get meetings with Marco Rubio and Rubio cancels the meetings or just doesn't even respond to her. Yes.

This is, I mean, forget about not able to talk to to uh to russia yes the top diplomat in europe can't even schedule a lunch with the secretary of state of the of the united states yeah will trump take greenland because once again i'm not advocating for this but no i'm trying to put myself in trump's position and i say you know what i'm heading for a big loss in ukraine i'm trying to prevent this big laws in Ukraine. I'm the neutral mediator and all of that stuff, so I'm trying to cover over that, even though they continue to provide weapons and everything to you. Anyway, we've talked about this a thousand times. He's heading for trouble in Ukraine. Iran, we make it Iran acting up again.

He's boxed himself in in Venezuela. Greenland seems like a quick, easy win. Yes. And he could argue, and there will be many people in the US who will agree with him. I want to say many people, I mean, not everybody, not even a majority of people, but there will be people in the US who will say this is an important way. It's an easy way. The Danes are not in a position to put up resistance. The US military can just move in, take over the place, or the Americans can then strong-armed Denmark into agreeing to an annexation because they can. And it's a simple, easy, straightforward, win.

And from the perspective of the people in the Pentagon and in the MAGA movement who are behind the security strategy review, this makes sense. It actually makes sense in terms of American national long-term security. interests. It puts the US in a stronger position relative to the other two great powers, Russia and China. It means that America becomes a big player in the Arctic, where it has been effectively excluded. It also means that the US now has much more secure, a certain control over the North Sea and the North Atlantic, which of course means that the Russians will find it. Well, I mean, of course, the US already has a presence. in Greenland and all of that, the Greenland Ferris and all that gap and all that.

But, I mean, it means that indefinitely the US can close the door to Russian or Chinese conceivably warships entering the North Atlantic from the Arctic seas. So, you know, from an American point of view, this makes strategic sense. So, yes, there may be minerals as well and all of those things that they might be useful. But as you rightly say, that's icing on the cake. Trump just came out and said it. I just want to take it. Yeah.

That's simple. He made it very simple. Those are his words. I just want to take it. We just need it. We want to have it. So we're going to take it. I mean, that's what I got out of it.

And my final question is, why else would you appoint an envoy if your goal isn't to try and take it? Well, absolutely. I mean, negotiate it, put pressure on the EU. I imagine NATO's, well, NATO's not going to. to say anything. Mark Ruder is not going to go against Trump. I imagine the UN is not going to really say anything. I imagine the EU can take it to the to the UN, but will they? And if they do take it to the UN, what will the UN do? Would they dare? Would they dare? What would the security council do, Alexander? If this goes to the security council, would Russia vote in favor of

the EU, would China vote in favor of the EU or in favor of Denmark, in favor of Frederikson? Well, exactly. Would that happen? I mean, perhaps, perhaps they would. But if they do, they will be doing so without any real sincerity. I mean, they'll be laughing at it in private. The Russians have no reason to have any sympathy for Denmark or for Fredixon anymore. Does Greenland pose any type of threat to Russia and their presence in the Arctic? No.

I mean, it introduces the United States into the Arctic as a major competitor. But then bear in mind something else, which is, of course, that the Russians who clearly know that the Americans are getting increasingly interested in the Arctic, have increasingly been floating ideas to the Americans. This is one of the things Demetriov gets very involved in, suggesting, well, you know, maybe we can, you know, there's a lot there. Why don't we share it? Why don't we work on this together?

So, at some point in five, ten years, who knows, maybe things like that might come. But yes, obviously, at the moment, the Russians have an overwhelming dominant position in the Arctic. The Chinese, through the Russians, are becoming stronger in the Arctic too. If Greenland goes to the US, then, of course, it means that the Russians have a rival, a big American rival in the Arctic. Arctic and the balance of power in the Arctic starts to change. But I think the Russians can live with it. Final question. What about Canada?

Where does this place, Canada? Well, I mean, it'll be increasingly sandwich because there's the U.S. The South, Greenland to the east, and Alaska to the west. So, and as we know, I think it's one Canadian province. I think is Alberta is already restless. Who knows? I think that there is still very, very strong Canadian patriotism, which, you know, pushes back against the US. But what would be the relationship they would be able to build then to counterbalance American power? Matt Erid, who we speak to some quite often, he suggested a relationship. with Russia. The current Canadian government developing a relationship with Russia. Could they do it? Impossible. Impossible. Impossible. They would do it. I mean, they should.

They absolutely should, but they won't. They weren't. Exactly. The US is beating all of them to this. Yes. I mean, if there's going to be any country, I'm not saying it's going to happen, but if there's going to be any country that's going to reestablish a relationship with Russia, it's going to be the United States at this point because all the other countries of the collective West are stuck. Absolutely. They can't move. No.

I mean, there might be some of the smaller ones. Italy and France might find a way back in some form to Spain to. Germany, I think the Russians are so angry with Germany. I can't see it happening any time soon. And of course, there's the history there. Britain as well, the Scandinavians and the Baltic states. Impossible. Impossible, yeah.

All right. No, no, Germany's been. targeted to, you want to talk about being sandwiched. Germany's getting it from the US and they're going to get it from Russia and from France now. They're getting it from everywhere. Yeah. But who brought it, but who brought themselves? They brought it. They brought it on themselves. Exactly. Exactly. All right. We'll end the video there. The durand. Dot locals.com. We're on next. We're on Rumba. We're on Telegram and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch and also look for us on substack. Take care.