The Duran Podcast - CRASHING oil price to CRUSH Russia

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

CRASHING oil price to CRUSH Russia

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the first few days of Trump as president of the United States and obviously we'll focus on the conflict in Ukraine because Trump is very focused on the conflict in Ukraine. So he said a lot of stuff during many events, speeches, statements, whether it's the signing of executive orders, whether it was his speech the other day at the W.E.F. Or a recent interview that he gave on Fox News to Hannity, he is talking a lot about Project Ukraine. Of course, reporters are asking him a lot about Project Ukraine because I believe the media has been told to ask him a lot about Project Ukraine because the more they ask about Project Ukraine, the more he gets sucked into Project

Ukraine. And he is getting sucked into Project Ukraine. At least that's the way it looks on the surface. it does seem that Trump is more than willing to take ownership of the conflict in Ukraine. At least these are my thoughts. He is absolutely willingly taking ownership of the conflict in Ukraine. And he's saying many interesting things. Some people may call what he's saying an ultimatum to Russia a warning, threats, very mafia-like. Warnings in a way, take it or leave it or else. with sprinkles of goodwill, of love for the Russian people, as Trump puts it.

I love the Russian people, but I'm going to destroy your economy if you don't agree to my terms. That's how I've been reading his messages. Anyway, what are your thoughts on this? We haven't talked about this, by the way. So I'm very interested to hear your thoughts on everything that Trump. Trump is saying? Well, the first place to start, I think, is his inaugural address, where he didn't mention Ukraine at all.

He didn't mention Ukraine. He didn't talk about Russia at all. So I don't think that he came to the presidency, determined to take ownership of project Ukraine. But I think exactly as has happened, exactly as you said, what has happened is that he has been bombarded with questions. People are constantly asking him, what is he going to do? about Ukraine, and I think he's falling into all the traps that people are laying for him.

He's saying that, you know, he wants to do a deal. He's communicating to the Russians, the fact that he wants to do a deal. He's telling you, he's telling Zelensky, you have agreed to do a deal. You're going to do a deal. I mean, you know, you talked about the fact that he's taking a rather godfatherish approach to the Russians. He's doing the same in effect with Zelensky. He's saying that Zelensky is ready to do a deal. Nothing Zelensky has stayed up to now is consistent with this. I mean, Zelensky is getting annoyed and angry and all kinds of things about that kind. He sometimes talks about a diplomatic settlement, but he's never actually said that he wants to do a deal with Putin.

And, of course, his decree, which prohibits him from negotiating with Putin, remains in effect. And Zelensky's own foreign minister recently reiterated that it stays in place. So, you know, I, I, I, I, Trump is just saying these things and he then made what I thought was a remarkably ill-judged post on truth social. A classic example, by the way, of Trump, I think doing the art of the deal type thing, you know, gumming or guns blazing, just lots of bombastic threats and things at that kind. You know, we want to do a deal. you want to do a deal. I really love you. You're great people and all of that.

But if you don't do a deal on my terms, then we will blast you to pieces. Now, that might work in the commercial world that Trump is familiar with. It absolutely does not work with the Russian Federation. In fact, what Trump is communicating to the Russians at the moment is two things. There's a number of things. Firstly, he is taking ownership of project Ukraine, exactly as you said. He may not have had that intention. His inaugural address suggested that he did not.

But he is now inexorably being drawn into the trap. The trap that Steve Bannon, by the way, amongst others, us included, warned him against. Okay. So that's the first thing to say. So the Russians will see that. The Russians are also going to see something else. Donald Trump is very anxious to do a deal. Now, notice that all of these demands to do a deal, to make peace, to do all of that kind of thing, are being addressed by Trump to Putin, not by Putin to

Trump. Now, already that puts you, if you're talking about negotiations, about bargaining, that suggests that you're actually in a weaker position than the one you want to convey, because it looks as if it's you who need the deal. more than the Russians do. I'm not saying that's really the case. I'm saying that that's quite plausibly how the Russians will see it. And they also look at the various comments

that Trump is making, which are all over the place, by the way. He talks about Ukraine being the killing fields, about which he's absolutely right. He says that the Russians have lost a million men killed in the war, which is nonsense. He says that the Russian, Russians lost 60 million killed in the Second World War, which is also nonsense.

He said something about the Second World War, which the Russians have actually taken offense to. I mean, I don't think this is Trump's intention, but they push back on it because he said that the Russians lost these 60 million people to help the United States win the war. The Russians did not fight the war, the Second World War, in order to help the United States. They fought the Second World War because their country was attacked and they fought heroically, as they believe, to defeat fascism. And in that, they were successful. I mean, this is an extraordinarily offensive comments to make. And the Kremlin, Peskot, Putin's spokesman, has already pushed back on it.

So I think what the Russians are concluding from all of this is that Trump is indeed gradually drifting into ownership. of Project Ukraine. He is desperate to meet Putin, but he has no plan. He has no real coherent plan about what to do. He threatens oil sanctions, or at least some kind of sanctions. He talks about taxes, tariffs, sanctions, or very vague if he's talking about tariffs towards the United States. The only trade that there is left now between the United States and Russia, as I understand it, is uranium, and that creates problems if that is stopped or restricted in somewhere. If he's talking about tax sanctions, secondary sanctions to affect the Russian oil trade generally, then that's risks igniting further rises in oil prices.

That goes completely against the other thing that Trump is saying he wants, which he made very clear in his speech, in his Davos speech, which is that he wants to reduce oil prices. He then talks about MBS flooding the world with cheap oil. He doesn't seem to ask himself the question, what's in it for MBS if that happens? MBS is running a massive investment program in Saudi Arabia, very costly investment program in Saudi Arabia. the Saudi budget is not strong. MBS needs a high oil price at the moment, not a low one.

So the Russians are looking at all of this, and they're saying that this man really hasn't worked it out yet. And we can play him long and see where it goes because he clearly wants a deal. And in the meantime, we've got every reason to continue with the war. I've got a lot of questions here. MBS is, he's a need of the money, you said, because he has undertaken a very big investment project.

Why would Trump then say at the WEF that Saudi Arabia has committed $600 billion to the United States and he's pushing for a trillion? He said that Saudi Arabia should round it up to $1 trillion, as if we're talking about, you know, $100 or, you know, round up $600 billion to a trillion. That's a lot of money. Where's this disconnect? Or is there a disconnect? There is no disconnect.

It's the classic payoff that the Saudis make. When a new president or any government that they have dealings with comes in, they buy, as they see it, goodwill, by investing in the United States. They did that all the way back in the early 70s after the Arab oil embargo and the quadrupling of oil prices. They agreed to buy dollars, if you remember, that was the thing. have payments in dollars. They also agreed at that time to invest in American securities. They want to do the same. Now, if the Saudis are really going to invest a trillion dollars in the U.S. economies, Trump wants, and at the same time, continue, persist with their investment program in Saudi Arabia, then that points to MBS wanting a high oil price, not a low one.

I was going to ask you, how could he do this with a lower oil price? He can't. He can't. I mean, maybe he can, but there would be stresses. And Saudi society in the past, when there have been stresses caused by a low oil price, has shown tensions, internal tensions. And, I mean, none of us knows exactly how stable MBS its position is. He's only the crown prince, remember? He's not yet the king. And when his father dies, he will want to become king.

but the other Saudi princes might have their own ideas. So I would have thought at the moment, MBS more likely than not, would prefer higher oil prices than lower ones. Why would MBS want to flood the world with cheap oil to help Zelenskyy and Donald Trump? It doesn't make an obvious sense to me. So these are the sort of things that as I said, Trump is saying, which he needs to take a step back. think a little bit more carefully and maybe make a decision to answer fewer questions. He had a very good policy before the inauguration of saying as little about Ukraine as possible. And it worked for him. I think he's now saying altogether too much. And it's not working for him. It's leading him into

problems. And as I said, the Russians, if you look at the Russians, what they're saying, they're not They're not dismayed or frightened or alarmed by what Donald Trump is saying. What they're saying to each other, there is this man wants a deal, but he doesn't have a clue. That is their pupil. Now, he's saying crazy stuff, Trump. On Hannity, he actually claimed that Russia stole the hypersonic designs from Obama. And if they stole these designs, they created hypersonic missiles. But Trump told Hannity, don't worry, we're going to be creating a super hypersonic missile.

I mean, he is saying stuff, which is just way out there. Way out there. Anyway, you know, we've- Look, I suspect a lot of this is the exhilaration of being back in the White House. Yeah, but still. But it's dangerous. It's in this kind of superpower diplomacy, especially when there's a war underway, it doesn't work. It signals all the wrong things.

It's better to say as little as possible to get his team to arrange this meeting with Putin, and then to move on. Well, the media is completely sucking him in to project Ukraine. Absolutely. I don't even think he realizes it. Maybe he does realize it. I don't know. Maybe, like you said, he's just exhilarated, just talking to the media as president.

Once again, I have no idea, but the stuff he said about the hypersonic missiles and super hypersonic missiles was just way out there. But let's get back to some of the statements that he's making about wrecking the Russian economy, because that's what we're talking about. Trump is saying to the Russian people, I love you. I love the Russian people, he's saying. I love the Russian people,

but I'm going to destroy you unless you agree to my terms. That is what he is saying. That's it. I love you, but I'm going to destroy your economy. So he comes to the WEF, which I thought appearing at the WEF was a huge mistake. Absolutely. He did it.

He went to the WEF. And some people are saying he went there so he could read them the Riot Act and tell them globalism is over. I don't know, maybe. Maybe that was the point of his virtual speech at the W.EF. Well, he didn't need to go there in order to do that. I was a major mistake in my opinion and one which will not have gone down well with some of his supporters.

I was going to say the same thing. Maybe 15 years ago you could have appeared at the W.EF. Now, if you're a world leader appearing at the W.E.F, in my opinion, is absolutely top. toxic. But he did it. And during his statement, he said that he is going to tell Saudi Arabia lower the oil price because that's how he's going to bring Russia to its knees and end the conflict of Ukraine. He also said he's going to get China's help to do it as well. How easy is it to lower the oil price? Biden tried it. Didn't succeed. Does Saudi Arabia go along with this? What does it mean for Saudi Arabia's relations with Russia, which are

are very good. What does this mean for other OPEC countries if Saudi Arabia goes along with this? What does this mean for U.S. producers, who I believe they need, I think, $53 about there to break even, if that? Yeah. So things are not going to be good for U.S. producers if this happens. And what does it mean for Russia? Could Russia, let's go down this rabbit hole, if all the stars align for Trump and Saudi Arabia said we'll flood the market, we'll lower the oil prices. OPEC says, okay, we'll do it as well. Not OPEC plus, but OPEC says, okay, we'll also go along with you to destroy Russia because that's the reason they're going to do this. MBS is going to flood the market. He's going to lower oil prices in order to destroy the Russian economy in order, according to Trump,

to get Russia to agree to his terms and the conflict in Ukraine. This is the line of thinking. Let's go down this line of thinking. Once you talk about everything else, I want you to explain if this does happen. What does this mean for Russia? I think the first thing to say about oil prices and the Saudis is that as far as the Saudis are concerned, the people who decide oil prices are the Saudis, not the United States, not Donald Trump, not the White House. Now, this has been a problem, which I think a lot of.

of people have never quite understood. There is a mythology. It's a very, very strong myth that in the 1980s, the Saudis flooded the world with oil in order to bring down the Soviet Union and that this caused the Soviet economy to collapse and that this was somehow arranged by the Americans and the Saudi together. And that, you know, Reagan and the king, King Khalid, I think it was at the time, agree this together. And of course, one of the people who's promoted that particular myth is none other than Mikhail Gorbachev, who wanted to give some excuses, make excuses for his own catastrophic failures of Soviet leader in the 1980s. There is absolutely no truth to that claim at all. Firstly, it is absolutely correct that oil prices collapsed in the 1980s,

But the reason they collapsed was because there was a massive oversupply, which had been building up over a long time, because oil prices had gone very, very high in the late 1970s and early 1980s. And the result was that the oil price had gone too high, and as often happens with oil markets, it overcorrected. So that was what really happened in the 1980s. I mean, I could disdise I've discussed this for hours. I'm going to do all the details, but there's no point in discussing it. And as for the Soviet economy, again, it really isn't true. I mean, it was already experiencing problems before, and those problems were exacerbated massively by Gorbachev's own reforms and the reactions to the within the Soviet Union itself. The Soviet Union had functioned very well

in the 50s and 60s, with early 70s with low oil prices. The idea that they couldn't have managed low oil prices in the 1980s, if their own economy had been in a good way, shape is absurd. And in fact, the oil price, the collapse of the oil price, had no real bearing on what happened in the 80s. And nobody was saying so at the time, as I very well remember. I mean, this is an invented story that was basically cobbled together a short time later. So you're basically saying, this is interesting, you're basically saying that this idea of using Saudi Arabia to weaken the Russian economy,

to crash the Russian economy, is a throwback. It's a throwback to Saudi Arabia lowering, let's say lowering in the oil price, back in the days of the Soviet Union, which some people wrongly have told Trump, this is what brought down the Soviet Union, very much like Afghanistan brought down the Soviet Union. This is where Trump may be getting this information from, this idea.

This idea from. I suspect he is. I mean, it simply isn't right. I mean, just to make that absolutely clear, it simply isn't correct. Now, to reiterate again, when the Saudis did decide to increase all production in the 80s, the reason they were doing that, by the way, was because in a period, in the previous period of high oil prices, they were losing market share because other OPEC producers were capitalizing on the oil prices and Saudi restraint in production to take market share from the Saudis. I mean, that was basically the story. The Saudis decide

the price of oil as it suits them. That has been their consistent policy. When the G7 came up with the oil price cap on the Russians a short time again. You remember the $60 cap, $60 a barrel cap, the Saudis were furious about it. And they said, this is not your business. You do not interfere in the oil price in the oil price in that way. That's our business. It's not yours. So Trump pushing on this, he will be, he will encounter from the Saudis, always expressed as the Saudis do in the most polite terms, you know, the thing that we're not, well, they won't do it. And you're absolutely right. The Saudis have excellent relations with the Russians. They're developing relations with the Russians. They need to have the Russians on side further because

the Russians have just signed this partnership agreement with Iran, which undoubtedly they have also, to some extent, discussed with the Saudis. So the Russians, the Saudis need the, the Russians. The Russians to maintain control over what the Iranians are going to do. MBS and Putin get on extremely well. There's absolutely no reason why MBS would do this. It's absurd to think that he would. I mean, it's a, it's a ludicrous idea. Now, let us suppose all that goes out of the wind.

Yeah, part of. And the MBS decides that he's going to go completely crackers, reverse the whole policy that Saudi Arabia has always followed, dismay all the other Saudi princes, who can remember that they all need oil prices, high oil prices, because they do well from it themselves. I mean, their own fortunes are tight as this. Put it at risk the internal stability of Saudi Arabia and of his own position as the future king of Saudi Arabia. but let's assume that he does this. And let's assume that oil prices crash. Oil prices have crashed

several times in the last couple of years. I mean, they crashed in the summer of 2014, when the Saudis again flooded the world with oil, this time, by the way, because they wanted to knock out the shell producers in the United States. I mean, that was what they were trying to do. And by the way, they failed, and it put them under enormous stress. But certainly, the oil price, put, you know, collapsed then, and it continued to fall up to 2016. Russia adjusted, because it is a huge economy, a very diversified economy. It's oil industry accounts for perhaps 8 to 10% of its GDP, energy industry. It will always find markets for its oil and gas.

Oil and gas is produced very cheaply in Russia, as it is in Saudi Arabia. The Russians can always sell their oil at a profit, and beyond that, they will adjust, as they have consistently done to any movement in the oil price by lowering the value of the ruble. Now, this is something again which people just don't understand. If the ruble falls to 140 or 150 rubles to the dollar, it works. It benefits the Russians because it means that they get a higher price for their oil in rubles than they would if they kept the ruble at, you know, the current exchange rate. So they will absorb the shock.

They did that in 2014. They did that again in 2016, when the oil price briefly fell to $25 a barrel. The people who cannot sustain for any long period of time, low oil prices are the Saudi. The moment NBS and his father took over, they reversed the policy of the previous king and his ministers. of flooding the world with cheap oil because of the strains it was causing on the Saudi economy. In the event, the shale producers in the United States were able to survive. It was the Saudis who couldn't take the strain. Well explained, got it. What else could Trump tax or terror for sanction, as he says? When it comes to Russia or secondary sanctions, India, China. Yeah. Anything

there? Well, here we come to, here we come to other problems because, yes, he can start imposing more secondary sanctions on the trade in Russian oil. Now, I come back to what I said, bear in mind that if MBS isn't flooding the world with oil, that's going to have an effect of increasing oil prices, which is the opposite of what Trump wants to achieve, as he's now made clear. But, you know, let's say that he goes down that route. Nonetheless, the trade will continue, Because as we've discussed in program after program, after program, where there is a demand and a supply, the trade will continue. The Russians have the oil. Countries like India and China want to buy it.

The Chinese have just sorted out apparently with the Russians. The route for the power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. This was discussed by Putin and Xi Jinping just a few days ago in a long virtual summit meeting that the two men had with each other. That was basically what that was all about, as I understand. Putin is also going to India fairly soon. The Indians are already looking for ways to circumvent Biden's latest sanctions by, you know, the ones against the shadow fleet and all of that.

They're indicating that they're going to accept insurance from a wider pool. of Russian insurers than before to make sure that the ships continue to transfer the oil to India. So it's not going to, again, it's not going to work. If by now people haven't understood, after three years of Biden trying sanctions that sanctions on Russia are not going to collapse the Russian economy, then I really don't know when the pennies go to finally drop. Eventually, presumably it will.

But Putin has had a meeting with his economic people. Just a few days ago, they were looking at the situation in the economy last year. Despite all of the sanctions, the Russian economy appears to have grown by just under 4%. And it posted a budget deficit of 1.7% of GDP, which is, you know, well within control. and budgetary receipts in December were apparently the highest they have ever been, partly because the non-energy sector of the economy in Russia is booming and is paying more and more in taxes. Well, the argument for what you said about Biden, Biden has tried for three years to get sanctions on Russia and it hasn't succeeded to implement his sanctions policy and it hasn't succeeded.

The argument that someone will tell you is that, well, this is Trump, not Biden, and Trump has his ways. All right. So that's the argument that you'll get as far as getting the sanctions to succeed on Russia. I mean, would, and just going off of that statement, would it be possible for Trump to get China to turn on Russia? Well, Biden has, I'm sorry to say this, but Biden has tried. Biden tried continuously. I mean, there was meetings between Jake Sullivan and Wang Yi, in which the Sullivan was constantly trying to get the Chinese to put pressure on the Russians. And Tony Blinken used to go to Beijing also and insist on doing the same thing. Now, again, why would the Chinese do that?

Why would the Chinese turn on their Russian friends in the way that Donald Trump wants? when they are so anxious, as has become increasingly clear, to develop their own relationship. I mean, if the Chinese were offered some kind of major deal by the US over perhaps Taiwan, they might think about it, but even then, I have to say, I think it's extremely unlikely. I mean, at the moment, as far as I can see, Trump wants them to do that and is offering them nothing. Yeah. All right. Let's do one final question, because I'm still trying to figure out if Trump actually does have a plan for Project Ukraine or if he's just kind of winging it.

The narrative that Trump is presenting, the one million Russian. soldiers that have been killed. He says more than Ukraine. He presents that narrative. He talks about the Russian economy as being a failure. He talks about how Putin is in a mess, that Putin is really messing up and he's going to do him a favor. Where do you think Trump is getting this information from? Do you think he believes this? Or do you think that he's playing some sort of 5D, 10D chess. I don't know. He's, he's, you know, this is once again some, some type of distraction or faint or fake out while he's working on some sort of a realistic, say, deal with Russia. I will say that there are some reporters. I believe Seymour Hirsch, though I'm not 100% sure on this,

but I believe I read that Seymour Hirsch, according to his sources, And once again, I want to say I'm not 100% sure on this information, but according to Seymourche's sources, the Trump administration is close to a deal with the Russians on Ukraine. Something along those lines. Anyway, my question is, do you think that what Trump is saying in public is a type of a fake out while behind the scenes he is working with Putin and Russia to get to a deal? And do you think that Putin will fold to Trump's demands? even though Putin has explained in detail many times what Russia's terms are, do you think that he will fold on Putin's demands?

On Trump's demands, sorry. I haven't seen anything from Seymour Hersch about this myself. And I would be very cautious. I mean, I would say, for example, just about a year ago, Seymour Hersch was spreading a story that there were secret consultations, discussions between the Ukrainian military chief, General Zillusioni, and the Russian military chief general, Gerasimov, to agree a ceasefire. And I was absolutely sure that was wrong, and it was wrong. I've been looking at the Russians, what the Russians are saying. And they all

say consistently one thing, that so far they had no real contact from the Trump people at all. There's been no communication, substantive communication from them up to now. and that they are completely unclear as to what the administration is really thinking. So that's what the Russians themselves are saying. Now, because it could be that they're saying all of this to spin us all the story and to make us think that nothing is happening when a lot beneath the surface actually is. But I'm inclined to think that this is so, because I don't see how all of this language, all this bluster that we've been getting from Trump actually would facilitate negotiations.

if they were actually underwent. Saying, posting a thing like the comment that he posted on truth social, I mean, it's the kind of thing that could even wreck negotiations if they were underway rather than move them forward. So I think the Russians probably are telling the truth that there are no real contacts with Trump or his people and that there are no actual negotiations ongoing at the moment. Now, where does Trump get all? Well, where does Trump get all of this?

He gets it from the media. I mean, it's as simple at that. This is where he gets a lot of his ideas, like most politicians do. He's not been president of the United States for four years. He's been out of the loop. As far as I understand it, Biden made sure that he did not get information, access to intelligence, as former president sometimes do. And the result is, I think, that Trump has just been getting a lot of these.

stories from the media. The media constantly goes on about how bad the Russian economy is, the enormous losses that Russia is suffering on the battlefield. Trump, as he often does, rounds them up and comes up with absurd figures. And he hasn't yet, I think, gained a real understanding of the actual realities. So a lot will now depend on whether Radcliffe, who is now confirmed the CIA director and Telsi Gabbard, who is not yet confirmed as Director of National Intelligence, but assuming she is, well, they will have to now try and make Trump understand that a lot of these stories are not actually based on any real substance. And perhaps if Trump and his people do finally meet with Putin and do in fact start communicating with the Russians

properly, then they will gradually start to amend their views and get a better perspective of what the real situation is. I'm going to give an example, by the way, I mean, why perhaps we shouldn't be unduly pessimistic because of all of this activity. In his first term, Trump said all sorts of incredible things about Kim Jong-un. He made all kinds of threats. He called him the rocket man. He moved missile submarines close to North Korea's coast.

And many, many people, including China, by the way, that were really concerned that he was about to attack North Korea. I mean, it all looked incredibly tense. And then suddenly the whole line shifted. And Trump met with Kim Jong-un, and for a short time until John Bolton wrecked it. That was an actual dialogue. between the United States and North Korea underway. So it may be that we're going to see something like the same happened this time.

The Trump will come in, has come in, all guns blazing, talking far too much, saying far too many things, letting the media run rings around him, which is what they've been doing. And then things will steady over the next couple of weeks as he moves towards his meeting with Putin. And it has happened with Kim Jong-un will finally have a meeting. And, you know, the mood and the direction could change. So, you know, don't discount that. That is possible.

We're dealing with such unconventional politician in Donald Trump that it's not always easy to guess where things are going to go. But bear in mind, the one thing that he has made repeatedly clear is that he does want the war to end and that he does want a deal. Now, as I said, I'm not sure that he was wise to communicate it to the Russians in quite the way that he's been doing over the last couple of days. But the fact that he wants a deal may mean that eventually a deal will be made. Maybe. Maybe. I have my doubts that he's been told. what Russia's terms are. I really have my doubts. I think he has zero understanding of what Russia's

terms are if, if Russia is serious about those terms. Yeah, well, again, I've no reason to think, I have no reason to think they're not. I mean, every Russian official from Putin, Dan has insisted that they are. Which, okay, so they're serious about their, I agree with you. Russia is serious about their terms. The question always comes back, at least in my mind, my analysis, has Trump actually been told, Mr. President or President-elect, this is what Russia is asking for? These are their terms. This is what they want to start out negotiations with. This is how they're going to start out negotiations. Has he been told this? Does he understand this? Because he still seems to be operating from the mindset of ceasefire. He operates from the standpoint of Russia is being crushed.

It's being crushed by sanctions. It's being crushed in this conflict. It's weak. It's getting weaker. He seems to be operating from that reality. And if he goes into negotiations with that reality and Russia's serious about their terms, he's in for a very rude awakening. Absolutely. And I just want to say once again, we've been saying on the Duran probably for six months, the easiest path that Trump could have taken was to just say this is Biden's war. I'll try to fix it, but if I can't fix it, I'm out. But obviously he didn't choose that path.

No. Exactly. Well, this is the trap he's walking into. Can I just say simply this? I remember when Putin made his speech in June. June of last year, setting out the terms. I remember that Trump at that time said they were unacceptable, but he's never gone back to them and he never discussed them in any kind of detail. I don't think he's ever really addressed those terms or thought about them or looked at what

they mean. And of course, he said that during the election. In recent weeks, he said absolutely nothing about the terms that Putin has set out, or which the Russians are arguing for. So I don't think he understands that not only are these the Russians' proposals, but that they mean them in deadly earnest. And I go to say something else, precisely because I think he thinks that the Russians are in a much weaker position than they really are. I think he also doesn't understand, that the war has came very, very badly wrong for Ukraine, and that the time window to do a deal is actually very small, and that if a deal isn't done in that time, Ukraine will collapse. And I think that is a real possibility now. So I think that is, again, something that Trump,

for the moment, doesn't understand. It will be the job of Tulsi Gabbard and of Radcliffe and of Putin and Lavrov and all of those to educate him other ones. Very quick. Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, they've washed their hands of Ukraine. They're out. It's all on Trump with your thoughts. It's all on Trump now. I mean, this is the trouble. This is the point that we've made in which Steve Bannon has made. Vietnam started as Lyndon Johnson's war. Nixon came in saying he would end it and got involved in negotiations. and also trying, by the way, to do all kinds of things that would gain him leverage over the North Vietnamese, expand the war into Cambodia, intensified bombing, do all kinds of things of that kind.

And in the end, he came to own the war, and it has bad an effect on his presidency in some ways as it did on Johnson. And I don't think Trump has fallen so completely into this same. trap that he can't find a way out, but he's slipping into this trap also. And it's a shame in some way that Bannon isn't his chief strategist anymore because Bannon seems to have a much better idea of what's going on in Ukraine than Trump himself does. All right. We'll end the video there.

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