The Duran Podcast - Crimea Escalation w/ Brian Berletic & Patrick Lancaster (Live)

Episode Date: September 16, 2023

Crimea Escalation w/ Brian Berletic & Patrick Lancaster (Live)

Okay, we are live. With us today, we have Alexander Merkiris, of course, joining us from London. We have the one and only Brian Berletic from the new Atlas. And we have with us, once again, the great Patrick Lancaster. How are you gentlemen doing, Brian Patrick? How are you guys doing today? Doing well, happy to be on. Great.

Let's get started. It's normal. Fantastic, Patrick. Let's get started. We have a lot of news to cover. Brian, I have all of your information in the description box down below. Patrick, I have all of your information in the description box down below. Please, everybody, follow Brian.

Follow Patrick. I have their YouTube channels, their telegram, their Rumble channels. They're on all of the major platforms. And when the live stream ends, I will have all of their information as a pinned comment as well. So please follow Brian and Patrick. Patrick. Alexander, we have a lot of ground to cover, so the ball is yours. We have a huge amount of ground to cover. So let's first, can I suggest, go to the person who is actually on the ground, who is indeed Patrick.

And Patrick, there is an awful lot going on in Dombas, in Zaporosia, in Herson region, in all of these areas. We still have the offensive, the Ukrainian offensive, is still underway. There is, so far as I can see, intense Ukrainian shelling now of Donets again. They've been shelling Donnets again. They've been trying to make more attacks on Crimea. And at the same time, as all of that is happening, we've been having elections in this region. And so this strange combination of war and an attempt to achieve a kind of normality, a kind of normal situation happening at the same time.

That's not by the way unusual in wars, at least from what I've read about wars. But what is the situation at the moment? I mean, how have the elections gone? I mean, from what I could get the censor, a lot of this shelling was partly an attempt to disrupt the elections. I mean, was it successful? Well, there has been quite a bit

first eight days was the mobile polling stations where they went to people's neighborhoods and houses with just a mobile station to let people that maybe couldn't make it on the three days that the polling stations were. Can I just say, Patrick, we aren't able to hear you, which is perhaps unsurprising given that you are in a war zone. Just a suggestion maybe if you could perhaps think of. of audio only if that's the only way that we could get through because it might make it a smoother sound, just suggesting.

Because we would very much like to hear your take on what's going on. Can you hear us, Patrick? Can you hear us Patrick? Well, we seem to, we seem to have lost him for a moment. So let me go to Brian instead. Let me get him on to, you guys continue. Let me speak to him. Which is this.

I am going to say what I think about the general state. the conflict at the moment, which is that we are now in the final weeks of this offensive. I think the offensive itself is now clearly heading towards failure. I also think that it has become particularly bloody. I think that these last few weeks, as we head towards the autumn, in terms of the numbers of people who are being killed, maybe the maybe the, maybe the, the worst time of all. I mean, that is my own sense of this. And this is a tragedy. And perhaps if I'm right about that, even a crime, given that people are being asked to die for objectives which are no longer, as everybody knows, achievable. I mean, there's not going to be a breakthrough to

the Sea of Azov. There's not going to be a severing of the Russian land, uh, car, and You've explained in many programs why even the severing of the land corridor would not have had the effect of people in the West and in Ukraine believed that it would. But they've not achieved that. They've not retaken back. They've not broken through to Maripal. And yet the fighting goes on and people are dying, perhaps in greater numbers now, especially on the Ukrainian side, than has ever been the case. the case up to this point in this war. That's my own sense of the situation. I mean, what do you feel, Brian? I agree with that. I think people are wondering and hearing from the Western media that the Ukrainian offensive is finally making progress, is gaining momentum, but in reality, what they're doing

is throwing absolutely everything they have left at the Russian defenses to get these meager, I would say, even superficial gains. I was just checking the pro-Ukrainian liveuamap.com before we went live and they're showing Russian forces on the offensive in that salient around Robatino and Verbevae. So even the pro-Ukrainian sources are admitting that not only are they failing to make progress, but some of this progress that they did make is being overturned by Russian counter-offensives. And this was something that was clear for all to see before the offensive even began. We were not citing special sources that we have in the Kremlin. We were reading the Western media.

We were going deep in the articles where they buried actual facts. We put those facts together and it gave us a clear picture of what was going to happen when this offensive was launched. So I agree with you that the casualties are higher now than ever. they've abandoned in any chance of sending in these large maneuver warfare units. They're going in on foot, but as they go in on foot, they're highly vulnerable, and they're dying in large numbers. And this is something that I guess in their mind they thought, well, we have manpower to spare. We can just keep sending them in on the ground. When they die, it's not as embarrassing, and no one really sees it to the extent of destroyed and burning leopard twos and piles of Bradley,

fighting vehicle. So I think that is where we are. And we're at a point where it had, it either has culminated or is about to culminate. We even heard U.S. General Mark Millie saying maybe around mid to end October. And then that's it. And that's what we all calculated. They had artillery ammunition for. And so that's, that's where they are. And where, what will they do next? I think that that is the big question that we all have to try to ask. answer. Patrick, you're back. Great to see you. You're going to tell us about the elections. And this is important because it's the future. It's not just, I mean, there's wars, but there's life beyond wars. So what is happening with the election? How did it work out?

Okay. Well, the first eight days, as I was saying, was the mobile elections, where they went to the different houses and neighborhoods of the people that maybe couldn't necessarily make it when the actual polling stationed open. And during that time, on the edges of the city and many residential parts of the city, not particularly the center, were heavily shelled by Ukrainian forces. And literally every single day, civilians were being killed. And there were civilian casualties, not only lives, but also homes and apartments. And there was even an election worker that was injured by shelling. And then from the eighth until the 10th is when the actual election polling station opened at the schools where people could go from their homes, go to the polling station and cast their vote. Now, the viewers need to keep in mind these elections are the first time the people of Dutbas are able to actually take part in the Russian government and real Russian elections.

Because people need to understand that in 2014, these people voted to break away from Ukraine. And that's what was followed by this nine-year war. And then, of course, as we know last September when the people here voted to join Russia. Now, this is the first time that the people were able to really take part in what they consider their country's elections. And again, every day there was shelling attacks on civilian areas and people dying. And that includes the three days of the polling stations. On the first day, I went to the polling station and interviewed many voters. I talked to polling station workers and even candidates.

And as I spoke to the voters, I kind of played devil's advocate. a bit and said, okay, you're voting in a Russian election, but the West, the United States, Europe, and of course Ukraine says, Danyetsk is part of Ukraine. And they literally laughed at me saying, no, this is not part of Ukraine. This is part of Russia because that's what we voted for. And that's what we wanted with our self-determination. And Ukraine didn't want them to do that. But they did it anyway. And the people that I interviewed looked at this day. is the eighth, the first day of the elections as a holiday, even though it was actually already a holiday. It was the anniversary of the final defeats and removal of Nazis in World War II from Dunbass.

But they look at it as a double holiday. The first day when Nazis were kicked out of Dunbass and the first day, they were able to take part in their country's elections. And on the second day of the open polling stations, I actually went to the front line and talked to some of the soldiers about how the voting situation was for them. And they explained how there was rotations. We actually ended up there during the middle of a rotation where some of the guys were coming from the voting stations and giving their colleagues a chance to go out and vote. But on the third day, on the final day of the open polling stations and final day of the elections overall, unfortunately, there were intense attacks on Dignetsk. I personally went to at least six different locations that took shelling.

One, I talked to a woman whose father was seriously injured, and thank goodness her children were inside and they weren't injured. But I asked her, you know, who's firing on your home? And she said, Ukraine. They said, why? Maybe there's a military target near here. She said, there's no military. It's only civilianaries. This is the theme that I get over and over from these victims.

And not only during the day were these attacks on Sunday, the last day of the election, but just as the polling stations were closing and the ballots were literally getting counted, Ukraine opened a barrage of rocket fire on the center and the surrounding area. Grab rockets. Reported somewhere between four and seven rockets that came down just on civilian areas. I went, everything I'm saying is documented in my channel. I went to these locations, saw young women with blood coming down their face because the glass from the explosion hit their face.

And again, says Ukraine firing on civilian areas. And she says there's no military targets near her, just families. And then on Monday, sorry to be a little long here, but on Monday, I joined the Russian forces, the Ptnashka Battalion, as they reported that their reconnaissance had located some of the artillery batteries, the Ukrainian artillery batteries that had been launching on the city of Dignettes during the election. And I was with them documenting, in their words, as they eliminated some of these artillery batteries with the Russian artillery. So I did my best to kind of document as much as the election from civilians all the way to candidates to the military.

And that's kind of my rundown of the elections. What was your sense of the mood? I mean, were people, in spite of all of this shelling, were they feeling defiant? Were they happy to be involved in an election? Was there a sense of determination? Did you see, because I have to ask this question, because of course the media here in the West says that these are sham elections. Did you see any sign of coercion or anything of that kind?

What was your sense of the participation? I mean, were large numbers of people participating or was it just small numbers of people? Yeah, this is what the West is a recurrent thing. Every time there's an election of referendum here in this area, they say, oh, sham elections, you know, soldiers are making people to vote. But they don't understand. These people consider themselves Russian. They don't want to have anything to do with Ukraine. They look at the soldiers that are here as heroes.

And this is not only now that Russian forces are fully here, but before 2022, when the vast majority of the soldiers here were locals. And there's still many of them locals. I mean, these people, the residents here look at the soldiers as heroes. They don't, but the West keeps getting told that the soldiers here are keeping the residents down and make them do what they want to do and vote. And it's just a total lie by the West to try to not let the Western population understand what the reality is of what the people and the residents of these areas really wants. Going to just say something about it. To go farther into your question, yes, there were just so many people, every single person I met was so happy to be able to take part in these elections. I've met doctors, nurses.

I mean, there were people singing in the polling stations. And, you know, every walk of life, elderly, younger people, and just all so happy to be able to take part in this election. And there was such large amounts of days with the week, or just over a week of the mobile stations and with the three opening days. So there was a huge turnout. I believe. And, you know, it was very interesting to see because I've documented, you know, everything from the Crimea referendum to the referendums across these four areas, both in 2014

in Danyetsk and across the four areas last year. So it's very interesting and see a piece of history, you can say. Absolutely. Can I just say there was one point I wanted to make, which is that, of course, in 2014 when there was the independence referendum in Dombas, the original referendum, which was organised locally. Western journalists were there, and this is before, you know, the narrative in the West had fully solidified. And I can remember the journalists then, some of them, admitting that this was that there was a huge upswing of support at the time and that this was a genuine expression of feeling in Donbass. Some of those same journalists who are saying that then in 2014, I read them today,

and of course they're saying something completely different now. But that's what they said in 2014. I have a good memory for this sort of thing. Can I just ask elections we tend to think of as contested things? I mean, there's different parties, people voting for different. political leaders. Did you get any sense of that that there's politics behind it? Or was it just the act of participating in an election at all, of putting down a vote, voting perhaps, well, for the government party, I suppose, but that was more important to people

than the local politics, than, you know, voting for, you know, Mr. X instead of Mr. Why? I mean, was there any element, if you like, of politics in the election, as apart from, you know, this affirmation that we're now Russian and we're now part of Russian? You know, yeah, I mean, of course there's a little politics, but as you said, the overwhelming just feeling of happiness didn't really come from, oh, will my guy win or will that one win? It's just taking part. And, you know, and I talked to a A couple candidates for the people to be able to... We've lost you, I'm afraid, Patrick.

Can we... Am I back? Yes, now you're back, yes. Okay, so just to go over that again, yeah, the over... Well, we've lost you once more, I'm afraid. There's a spotty internet, clearly. Unsurprising. I mean, I just wanted to make one observation here,

which is, of course, whilst we're waiting for Patrick, which is, of course, that... Ah, I think you're back. Patrick, I think we, I think I saw you move. So, okay. Okay. Yeah. Okay.

So, yeah, the overwhelming thing of the people wasn't, you know, will my guy win or will the other one win? It was taking part in the Russian government and Russian elections. And I also spoke to several of the candidates. And they as well, it wasn't so much about would they win, but just the fact that the people are able to take part in the government. And it's just a huge stepping stone for what the people, what the local population, here once and it's being part of Russia.

Yeah. What is morale like in Donbass now? I mean, has this election increased morale? How do people feel more confident? And we're going to come to the offensive, the Ukrainian offensive, but that seems like it's not achieved its objectives. Do people feel that with this election some kind of line has been crossed that maybe things are now going to start looking up for Donbass, that there's some sense that normality is returning? The people are just waiting. Of course, like a lot of the world thought that this would, this process would be a lot faster as far as when Russia would take control of the full areas, Danyetsky and Lugansk and beyond, when peace would come. People thought peace would be coming a lot

faster, so they're waiting for something to happen. But unfortunately, a lot of the people realize it's not going to be happening too soon. So as far as how the elections affected the people, maybe a little early to tell. But I would say not a lot. Just kind of like a nice weekend of taking part in the Russian governments. But, you know, things, it is what it is here. War is hell. And the people are living it.

But there's one other point I just want to make, and it's just my own observation, which is, of course, Ukraine is shelling these places. The fact we don't read about in the West, but I mean, you've reported it. We see it. We see it in your reports. There are other reports. There's no doubt about the fact that Ukraine is shelling, Donetsk, civilian places in the way that it is. Now, of course, Ukraine denies that these people are Russians. It says that this area is still Ukrainian territory.

So, of course, if they're shelling Dornetsk in this way, they're shelling their own citizens. Which is, you know, a thing that... Crazy. Yeah, I mean, people perhaps just ought to remember. Now, you've also been with, you said you've been with the soldiers. What is their mood? I mean, how did, I mean, presumably they participate in the election as well. well, but what is their mood? I mean, is this, are they confident at the moment? They've been through

a very, very tough period this summer with the offensive underway. Have you noticed to change, you know, is there a sense of resolve? Is there a sense of depression? What is the mood amongst the soldiers? The soldiers have stayed pretty positive. I mean, the overwhelming is, thing with the soldiers when you ask him about the war, what's next? And they say, victory's next. They don't know when it's going to be, but they're confident their victory is going to be next. And I, you know, I asked them, you know, what is the victory? Some of them aren't really sure exactly what the line of victory is going to be,

but they know victory is going to happen. Yeah. That's what they say. So they still have, they still have confidence in the leadership of their country and their army. Yeah, for sure. There's definitely a lot of, A lot of confidence. Yeah, yeah.

I mean, again, I ask that because in the West where, of course, I live, we hear lots about low morale amongst Russian soldiers. The progogian mutiny has intensified those reports, that this is an army that is very, very demoralized. But that's not your impression. Has there been, I mean, because I think this is the first program we've done with you since the Bregosian affair. Did it have any effect at all on Russian soldiers?

I mean, did they, because I have to say, looking at this, to me, from a distance, it didn't seem as if it made any difference. I mean, I didn't see any sign anywhere of any weakening of the lines or of the fighting on the part of the Russians. But did people talk about it? Were they even interested in what happened? Or did they not want to be trusted at all? There was a lot of confusion about it.

I mean, that was, as well, no, it was a very kind of strange situation when that happened. So, I mean, you know, from the inside out, it was also very strange. A lot of those soldiers didn't quite understand why or how or what exactly was the motive. But as far as weakening the line, I think no effect, no effect at all that. And just to ask, I mean, Wagner and its people, I mean, are there any of them, I mean, do you see any of them now on the front lines anymore? Or has it just completely disappeared from the seat? Well, I know I've seen some that have been transferred from Wagner to other departments and battalions. So, yeah, I've had, as soon as yesterday, I saw some here. near Danyetsk as well.

I mean, they're no longer part of Wagner. They're part of other platoons, but yeah, they have, I don't know exactly how many are still up north altogether, but there are some that's gone to other places. What is your sense about, what is your sense about the state of the fighting overall? I mean, this is, I mean, Ryan and I were just having a discussion whilst we were having problem, well, we're waiting for you, which is that I said that my impression was that the offensive is probably in its last weeks now, but the Ukrainian attacks have never been more intense in some ways than they've been up to now. And the result is very heavy casualties

on the part of Ukraine. But I mean, obviously it's difficult to get an overview over 1,800-kilometer a front line. But what is your sense? I mean, is this, I mean, would you agree with that? Would you disagree with that? Would you say that we're in a quiet period or an active period? What is your feeling about the state of the battle? I can tell you what I see with my own eyes here, Dynetsk. And in Danyetsk, it is not as intense as it has been in the past. Yeah, there's attacks every day in several areas. But for example, example, on the center of the city, it's actually fairly quiet compared to how it has been specifically. I mean, one of the high points was December of last year, which every day just in the

center was just being hammered and hammered and hammered. So as far as the city of Dunez goes, it's quieter than it's been, but it's not quiet. I mean, every hour they're shelling, but it's just not as intense as it has been in other areas or in other time frames. Now, along the other front lines, we'll have to see once I get there. But, yeah, that's the situation in Donetsk. But unfortunately, people are still dying every single day. Every day. Absolutely.

The other thing I wanted to ask is you are in Donetsk. I mean, there's these two towns which the Ukrainians control west of Donetsk, of Dejvka and Marinka. Have you any idea about what's going on there? There was supposedly a big battle near Abderafka, a place called Obidnoia, where the Ukrainians apparently suffered a big defeat. There's some talk that the Russians are advancing finally, that the Marinka battle is finally coming to an end.

Have you heard anything that supports any of this? Or is this what we're hearing here in the West? because reports are not always easy to get reliably from, you know, what's actually going on in the battlefronts. But is there a sense that these two places, Abderafka, and especially Marika, that the fighting there might be finally reaching a kind of conclusion? Well, as far as Adivka goes, and Marienka, for that matter, but just this week I've been on the fronts in Divka.

And the problem there is the front is the front is just, so dug in there. I mean, of course, on many of the fronts, it's been almost nine years now to dig in. But it's just really heavy fronts on both sides. So it's difficult to make their way through these fronts and get into the city of Divka itself. Now, as far as Apennig goes, wasn't there, just heard things secondhand. But my impression is Ukrainian forces made their way a bit inside the city. and made a big statement about how they control it, just like we've seen up when I was in Belgrade, when they came across the border, and just come to the first little road,

take a couple pictures, maybe some video, and say, oh, we control the whole town, and then they get out of their fast. So I think from what I've heard, that's kind of the same thing that happened there. But as far as Medellinka, it's a strange situation. I mean, the city is pretty much, gone. I mean, there's nothing left. But somehow the Ukrainians still stay there and trying to

hold out for some reason. But, I mean, we'll have to see. I personally think Merriyinka is going to come under Russian control a lot sooner than Abdivka. But, you know, that's just my speculation. Like I said, I try to, you know, say what I see with my eyes, but that's my thought. well those are those are my specific questions i mean it may be the brine and alex is some more but do you want to make any general comment that you want to uh uh make at this point um patrick is there is any general things that you wanted to say to me specifically i i think you know i think i kind of at the beginning kind of laid out the how things have been going here I mean, soon I'm going to be going up north to the Lugansk and Harkov direction,

and we're going to be able to see a lot more information. But, you know, definitely big thanks for you guys for helping me show what's happening here. And I'm glad we can, you know, work together on these shows. And I think we'll have many in the future. Well, Parry, can we say, can I say, I mean, I'm sure to speak with the others too, that, I mean, we are in horrible work you two. And it is invaluable. because who else do we know who reports like you do?

I don't know anybody else at all. I mean, you know, I'm sure. I mean, you've mentioned other people, but I mean, you're the person that I'm going to find out what, you know, the real, get the real feeling of what's going on on the battle. Yeah. Thank you. Well, maybe, because I would like to ask some questions,

but I'd also like to thank Patrick for doing the work that he, does. I don't think people understand how difficult it is to be out in the field doing this, especially when an armed conflict is taking place. One of the questions I wanted to ask was, do you have time to do research online to see what other people are saying about what is going on along the line of contact? And how does that compare and contrast to what you actually see with your eyes? So you report things that I think do reflect. very closely to what at least the Russian sources say. And as Alexander has pointed out,

the Russian sources can become very critical of how the war is being conducted. And when something bad happens, they do report about it. So what is your experience and what is being reported and what you're actually seeing with your eyes? Well, I mean, as you say, you know, the Russian media says one thing and the West says another. And the West really has no idea what's happening on this side because they don't do any reporting here and they just try to hide what's happening.

So yeah, I mean, I've got several colleagues and people I know across the lines that I talk to. But as far as in contrast to the West, I mean, you know, it's just night and day. But even still, I tell people in my reports, you know, you can't just watch my reports because I can't show everything that's going on. I don't see everything. So people just need to educate themselves. Watch as many reports from both sides of the line as they can, regardless Russian, English, Ukrainian, or Chinese. Being a little facetious, but, you know, they just people need to educate themselves, not just watch one source. Because no one source can tell you everything that's happening.

And maybe because they just don't know or because they don't want to. So that's why people just need to act on their own to, you know, educate themselves before they make an opinion and think something's fact when maybe it's not. Well, no, maybe I can add on to that. I was listening to Patrick talk about the people in these areas and how they feel they are Russian. And I just want to bring up, again, this 2013 polling that USAID, along with the International Republic Institute, put out. They did one for Crimea specifically, and then they did another one across the rest of Ukraine. And when you look at the way they break down demographics, it was basically split between Russian and Ukrainian speakers.

I think it's 40% Ukrainian, 40% Russian. People across Ukraine, all of Ukraine saw Russia more favorably than the EU or the United States. This is a U.S. government poll in 2013, right before they. carried out the basically the coup in 2014. So when Patrick says these things, I just want people to understand that even the U.S. government, with their own polling, has put this information out there

that these people did identify as Russian or they saw Russia favorably. So this idea that they feel Russian and they're excited about this election, that is not propaganda. That is reality. For sure. All right.

Do you guys have any more questions? You want to get questions from the viewers? You guys want to talk about Crimea, maybe a little bit? What's going on there? Well, we can talk about many things. But should we just talk about the sort of general status things? Because you may not have been able to watch them, Brian. Sorry, Patrick.

But Ryan's done some really very, very remarkable programs. He did one on the 1st of September. I think it was the 1st of September, with Scott have calibrated in Angela, which is an extraordinary program. And then you've done further ones since then. You've taken us through a long piece on the War on the Rocks, Michael Kaufman and was it Robert Lee? Rob Lee, yes.

Rob Lee, yeah. And looking at the strategies and the tactics. And now we've had a further article in the New York Times, which is all about industrial production things, all topics that we've discussed many times in many programs, but it's all coming together now in ways that I think we've spoken about before. So we go back to those two programs that you recently did, Brian, about the offensive.

I go back, I remember so many of the things that you were saying before. about you can't train people in the use of combined arms, Western type combined arms tactics. You can't train them in a few weeks or a few months. It isn't going to work. You can't take entirely new pieces of sophisticated equipment, tanks, aircraft, missiles, put them into a military system that isn't adapted to using these things

and expect them to know how to operate these things. and use them effectively within a few weeks. You did another program in which I remember you went through the way in which fortifications worked. It was most interesting program. Explained, this is some months ago, the challenges of dealing with all of these fortifications. And you also have many times spoken all the way going back to the summer of last year about the issue of attrition. And now we read article after article,

including in the Ukrainian media, by the way, about the inadequacies of training. We're starting to see articles skeptical about some of the weapon systems that have been delivered to Ukraine. We see complaints about fortifications, and we see also this, I think, deeply troubling,

and indeed I find it upsetting talk about another mobilisation in Ukraine which is the product of attrition. I mean, it seems to me that everything is coming together and it's not been difficult to see. You foresaw it to some extent. We on the Durand, we spoke about it too. We were talking about it long ago

but is that where we are that, you know, that all of these pieces are now falling together into place? Yeah, yes, and the West has to come to grips with this reality because there is no more kicking the can down the road. There's no more covering this up. They launched this massive offensive. It's in its four month, fourth month right now. And they have to explain to people why they've made no progress.

They've taken a handful of villages. They have not even breached the first main defensive line. They're playing semantics about what is the first defensive line. You don't do that if you're having actual success. You don't need to play games with semantics. But that is where they're at in this New York Times article, and people can look it up. It's titled Russia Overcome Sanctions to Expand Missile Production.

Officials say this is September 13th, 2023, we were all talking about this for months. We were talking about this last year, as a matter of fact, about how Russian military industrial production was greater than the West. and that you cannot compare countries by just looking at military budgets or GDP. You actually have to look at the industry itself. What are its components?

How is it made up? And if you did that, you would have seen how lopsided things were in favor of Russia. Russia was getting ready for this conflict in one way or another, whether they knew it was going to specifically be in Ukraine or elsewhere. since probably 2008, the attack on Russian forces by Georgia in 2008, they saw the inadequacies of their military, and they began a massive force-wide reformation of their military, their military industrial output.

So from 2008 till today, we still see that process ongoing. There are things that they began doing that weren't even finished by the time the special military operation began, say the land, at drones. That was something that came online in the middle of the special military operation. And going back to what you were saying, Alexander, about being able to train a brigade, a unit that is about 4,000 men strong, being able to train an entire brigade from scratch in three to six months is impossible. A whole brigade is not just 4,000 men on the field with guns running across the battlefield fighting. It is organized in different.

There's different units within the brigade, and they all need to be trained, not just basic infantry or artillery or tanker skill sets. They also need to know how to fight together as a unit and then together with the other units within that brigade and then with other brigades. And they never had enough time to do this. There is no time for Ukraine to do this, not in the middle of a conflict this intense. So this is the realization that, say, Michael Kaufman finally came to in that that, that, recent War on the Rock's article that I went over because previously he and many other analysts, the Western media collectively said, no, they don't can train and equip these brigades and they will be better than the Russian military forces they go up against and they will just push

the Russian troops off the battlefield. And we could see that that is not what happened, that the reality, the lead times on training, on military industrial output, these are real factors, fundamentals that if you ignore, nothing else matters. Absolutely. And I've discussed in the past, I mean, I have no military background. I do understand a little about industries. I mean, I was involved in this in the past. And unlike many of the people who talk about these things,

I've actually visited Russian factories, including factories which are connected with what would eventually could be, military production. And I said that they are organized in a different way from Western factories, and they are capable of increasing production volumes very fast. And there were two things about this New York Times article that immediately stood out for me. Firstly, the fact that the Russians have been able to double shell production. And by the way, I mean, I'm not vouching for their figures. I don't think they actually know that they're talking about. about how, you know, they seem to assume that the Russians might be able to produce a million

shells in a year. And in fact, they now say that they're probably producing two million shells in a year, which is more than they expected. Well, if you visited Russian factories, you would know how it could be done. And if you remember that Jamestown Foundation piece that we discussed some months ago that it was all about values, that they looked at monetary values of

Russian shell production and tried to extrapolate from that how many shells Russia was producing. And they were coming up for very, very high costs. They were assuming very high costs for each

Russian shell that the Russians were producing. You go to that New York Times article, you now see the admission that Russia is able to produce shells at a fraction of the cost that the West can, thereby invalidating instantly the entire methodology of that James Town Foundation article. So it's difficult for people to, I think, understand this in the West because our economic system is so profoundly different. Our industrial system is different, but the Russian system is designed to be able to do precisely this thing. And they talk about missiles and the fact that, you know,

the Russians have been able to obtain the chips for Qaeda. cruise missiles, to make cruise missiles. And they still talk about smuggling. The Russians are, I have to smuggle chips, supposedly. The Russians make chips. But they also are friends of the country that makes more chips than any other country in the world and probably most of them combined, which is China.

And China has just produced an advanced chip. The idea that the Russians are going to run out of chips is just ridiculous. But they still talk about smuggling, closing down Armenia, shutting down Turkey, those sort of things. Absolutely. And another point to take from that New York Times article is that, yes, they say two million artillery rounds per year from Russia. Think about the U.S. and their supposed production increase of artillery shells. I think it's 83 or 85,000 per month by 2025 at the earliest, maybe. 2028. If both the U.S. and Europe expanded production to that extent, it would still be short of what Russia is currently producing and Russia will continue expanding production between now and 2025 or

28 if the conflict is still going. So it's, it is a problem the West cannot solve. They cannot solve this problem. It will take too much time. That was another thing that Michael Kaufman repeatedly said, expand military industrial production. It's easier. said than done it takes years to do it and there's certain fundamentals especially education that cannot be fixed overnight or even over the course of just a year or two it could take many years to do this and you have to you have to have the willpower and the resources to do it and the west isn't even talking about fixing these fundamentals yet let alone uh doing a full mobilization of their economy to just match Russian military industrial production.

Indeed. Can I just come to a question, actually, Patrick, which is, I mean, you do meet with soldiers, you do, you have been, you know, with them under fire. Has it ever come up? I mean, do you get the sense that Russian troops are shorter things? I mean, just, just asking, I mean, you know, be it tanks, shells, small, small arms, you I'm sorry, I probably get things it wrong, but you know, bullets

and things like this. No, I understand what you mean. I mean, every soldiers issued their own AK and every front line position I'm at is just boxes and boxes of ammunition and so when I'm

at artillery position, the same thing. So it doesn't seem to me as there's any kind of shortage. And when I ask the soldiers themselves, that's what they say as well. So it doesn't seem like that. It seems like the supply routes are going fairly well at this point.

What about drones? Again, I'm sort of asking you, Patrick, because one of the things that's, I mean, again, I think this has been, I was astonished by it, but what do I know? But I think that increasingly even Western commentators are about the numbers of drones that there are now in the sea.

skies and that everything that you do is observed and can be observed immediately by both sides. I mean, is this something else that you've sense when you're there, that, you know, there's the eye in the sky watching you all the time? And if so, who has the most drones? Have you any more sense about this? Well, I mean, things have definitely changed as far as drone warfare. goes. I mean, I've been covering this since 2014. And at that time, there was nothing like there is now. I mean, now there's every type of drone from kamikaze drones, FPV, just normal quadcopters, you know, the Lancets, so many drones. I mean, war.

drone warfare has become a huge thing in this war and in turn electronic warfare personal electronic warfare many times I've done reports on it as well of the handheld electronic warfare jammers that they actually hunt the drones with and when they receive the signal of a drone then they engage that with electronic warfare basically shoot a lot of energy on the frequency that the drone is transmitting to try to knock it out of the sky. But, I mean, you know, we've got drones that can drop grenades, drones that just kamikaze, as I say, just made to crash. Many of the tanks now in military equipment, they're literally putting posts up with fences

covering, you know, about a meter, meter and a half away. Just so when the kamikaze drone comes, it explains. just before it hits the military equipment itself. This goes for both sides, both Ukraine and Russia are doing this, these special adaptions for the equipment. As far as reconnaissance, you know, there is. I don't know about any given time being seen, but it's, you know, huge increase. So just a huge amount of different levels and different types of drone warfare.

So it's a very new thing to modern warfare, I'd say. You know, what I also think about this is that in the West, we've probably invested. Just in my comment now in the wrong drones, in that we've been investing in big, complex, sophisticated drones. And from what I can see, in an actual war like this, it's the small ones. The Lancet, those are the ones that are really making the difference. Am I right? Or even smaller than the Lancet. I mean, we've got the little hobby FPV drones that they have, the different battalions have their own little, you know, workshops where they put together these FPV drones.

And it overall costs, each drone costs, what, $6,700? And then a lot of times they go up and they knock out a million dollar piece of equipment with this $600 drone. I mean, this is a fact. This happens. I've documented it. Now, there's been a lot of reports from the Royal United Services Institute. Enormously interesting, actually, and some rather clever people writing there. But they've also been talking about a radical improvement in command and control

that the Russians have been much more successful now, they're much more successful now, in integrating information from the battlefield with their artillery and carrying out counter-battery work, for example, than they did at the start of the war. And I noticed that Shoygu, the defence minister, he recently had meetings with people, and he said that the most important priority for the artillery at the moment is counter-battery work.

And you were talking earlier about how you actually went and saw, some of the guns that were striking at Donetsk being attacked in counter-battery work. I mean, how do you think about this? I mean, do you also think that this has improved? Well, I mean, again, back to the drone warfare. This is, you know, nine years ago, 2014, they literally had to have sabotage groups and reconnaissance group go in to put their eyes on. targets so they know what's being targeted and how and how but now the general practice for artillery

is to have a drone to locate a target whether it's through on the ground or through drone or through satellites locate a target and then put a drone in the sky over it that is targeting in relaying real-time information to the artillery operators and saying okay in this direction fired this and then they fire one shot and the drone operator sees okay that shot was a little bit to the left or right and they tell them how many degrees to go over and just real-time modern warfare uh can't a drone uh target to drone drone drone operator operator calls the artillery man all in real time is so it's definitely increased the effectiveness of artillery um since I started this for sure.

Right. Now, the other thing which actually, Brian, I saw a program which he touched on it. There was an utterly harrowing article about more than one article about the medical evacuation and medical treatment of Ukrainian troops received. That they're not very well organized in evacuating their wounded and that they don't treat the wound that they're wounded don't get the kind of treatment that they need. as a result that enormously increases their losses and, of course, must affect their morale. What was your, have you had it developed any sense about what goes on on the Russian side?

Because we don't hear anything about medical evacuation and treatment and, you know, hospitals in the rear on the Russian side. I mean, how does that work? Or does it work? I mean, is it successful? or have you any feelings or thoughts about it or impressions about it? Patrick? Patrick? I thought that was to Brian.

No, no, that was to you, Patrick, because as I said, we read about this with the Ukrainians. I mean, do the Russians feel that their own medical teams, their evacuation, their treatment? Is that working well for them or not? I mean, what is the sort of general sense about? this in amongst the russians the russian side well um i mean if you listen to the ukrainians they say that all the hospitals are overloaded with the uh russian soldiers and that's just not the case i mean i go to some of the hospitals here in the danyetsk and uh you know i talk to the doctors

about what the situation is and they say how they're you know dozens of civilians there that are, you know, injured by shelling or mines or whatever the case may be, including children. But it doesn't seem like the civilian hospitals are overloaded by soldiers at all. Of course, the soldiers have their own hospitals and even field hospitals. So it doesn't seem like, you know, there's this huge, overwhelming effect of injured soldiers. is affecting the medical situation as far as treating them. So I don't think it's really an issue, if I'm understanding the question correctly. If a Russian soldier gets wounded on the battlefield, I mean, how quickly is he evacuated?

And I mean, obviously, you can't give a single number, but are they evacuated fast, or is it chaotic and confusing? and do the Russians make a serious effort to evacuate that wounded? Well, I can tell you about an instance yesterday. I was at a Russian training ground near Danyetsk, and there was actually a little bit of an accident, you could say, where when a grenade went off, it wasn't really clear if it was a shrapnel or stones that came up and went into his soldier's eyes. And within, I'd say, 15 seconds, he was already in a vehicle on the way to the field hospital.

I mean, it was just as soon as the soldiers realized there was a problem, they screamed medic, and he just immediately got taken out. So there, you know, it seems pretty on top of the game when, as far as that goes. And another example, about a month ago when I was on the Adivka front, we came under shelling when there was a Ukrainian drone overhead and quite a bit of shelling and gunfire. And when we made it back to safety, my cameraman was a little bit injured. It wasn't really clear why because so much adrenaline, he just had blood on his hands. And as soon as the soldiers saw that, saw the blood, they just, you know, overwhelmed him, stripped off his shirt and looked. located if it happened to be just a, you know, a small cut, but just, you know, almost like muscle memory.

As soon as they see a problem, they react in the best way possible, I would say. Can I just ask them that? This is a question directed to both of you, to both Brian and Patrick. Brian, you've been in the military. I mean, I, again, I'm not a person with any military experience, But I would have thought that not having good medical support would be deeply demoralizing for soldiers. Whereas by contrast, having the knowledge that if something does happen to you, there will be people there to help you, is going to help you, is going to sustain you in battle. I mean, am I right in thinking this? Well, I mean, it is. And I think that's why the Western media focuses on this so much.

They try to portray Ukraine as having such a well-oiled medical process, and they try to depict Russia as having no medical process at all. We remember stories about Afghanistan or Iraq in that 30 minutes that every soldier has, that I think it's golden 30 minutes or hours, something like that, where they have to get them too intensive. care that quickly or they have no chance. And if you get them there, they have a much better chance. And so that was something that the U.S. was working on and that does improve morale for soldiers,

whether it's training or in combat. So I think it is a very crucial point that has to be addressed for every military. I mean, Patrick, again, I mean, you were there on a training ground. You saw the soldiers being trained. I mean, again, we've been hearing so much about the training of Ukrainian soldiers. What about the training of Russian ones? I mean, do they get thorough and good training? I mean, you've seen many soldiers in many wars. Do they come across as competent? Well, I mean, yesterday, for example, was on a training ground where some newer soldiers were not totally new, but, you know, newer. We're getting some just small arm, five, and grenade training.

And the instructors were, seemed to be very thorough and had many training themselves in different areas. So, I mean, yeah, the training goes good from what I've seen with my eyes. You know, one of the great things I've learned about this wall, the most important things I've learned about this war

is that we who don't know about armies and wars, we spend too much time worrying about strategies and tactics. The way wars are won are through training, through equipment, through good organisation, through organisation of military supplies, through support for the soldiers on the front line, and obviously through realism about how, you know, what soldiers can be expected to achieve.

I mean, I know perennonic figures perhaps do exist from time to time, but this isn't how this war is being fought or is going to be decided, or so it seems to me. Yeah, well, I was just going to say that that we can see that that is, that is the determining factor, these fundamentals. I just wanted to go back to when we were talking about drones and mention that when you read the Western media, they act as if only Ukraine has these drones. Only Ukraine is doing counter-battery missions. When in reality, so is Russia. And then for people to objectively

look at this, ask yourself, which side can afford to lose an artillery piece and which side cannot? So if everything else is equal, both sides are conducting these type of missions. They're both having a certain degree of success. Who can afford to take these losses? Who cannot? And then who has more material means to conduct these type of counter-battery missions on a more intense level? And the answer is obviously Russia.

Yeah. Let's just move forward. And we are now probably heading towards the moment when, the offensive starts to run its course. I mean, you know, Millie said 30 to 45 days until mid to late October. Do you think they're going to try and renew it afterwards? Because I can't see how. I mean, with what? But I mean, what do you think, Brian? No, they don't have the ability to. And this was something that was pointed out in that very long article also. We already watched NATO create this force for this offensive. They created a force before the fall offensive last year. And then what

wasn't mentioned, but absolutely did happen, was NATO began training Ukrainian forces all the way back in 2014. And at one point, they began arming them as well, very close to the launching of the special military operation. One of the factors that I think ultimately provoked it. And if you were training an army for eight years and they were not ready for this, what army that you train in two or three months or even six months, what is that army going to be capable of? So they have realized that this is not possible. Even if we did have enough material resources, the manpower is an issue. We cannot train up enough manpower to do this effectively, even if we had enough equipment for them, which we don't. And that that is the fundamental problem. And even Western

analysts admit that that army from 2014 to 2022, that is gone. That has been eliminated, more or less. It is gone. So just think about what the implications are for any future army. They try to cobble together and just a handful of months to throw at Russian defenses again. Yeah. What about an offensive, a Russian offensive? I mean, Patrick, is anybody talking about this? I mean, because there's lots of speculation about this in the media. Not, I should say, the Western media. The Western media doesn't want to admit the possibility. But if you go to independent people, you know, the various channels that I read,

and Scott have calibrated, reads even more, there's lots of talk about this. But is there any talk amongst the soldiers themselves about a Russian offensive of any sort of coming? Well, I mean, they're waiting for it. And they, there's, you know, almost a deadlock now. I mean, this so-called, you know, Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russians, you know, just look at it as a joke because there's been no real movement. And the soldiers are just waiting for the word in the order to push forward. And who knows when it's going to come and how it's going to play out.

But the soldiers are waiting for it. Has the counteroffensive, has the success in defeating the counteroffensive, let's assume it has been defeated, but has it actually increased, raised morale amongst the Russians? I would say yes, because at the beginning when it was on the eve of this great counteroffensive, I mean, there were a little bit of, you know, wondering, you know, and questions from the soldiers, okay, what's really going to happen now? Is this going to be as big as, you know, big as. what the West is saying, but nevertheless, they said, well, okay, we're ready for it.

And then it, you know, started. And they're like, okay, is this it? Yeah. So I'm going to tell you what I think about this rush talk of a Russian offensive, Brian. I've come to the view that if there is going to be a Russian offensive over the next few weeks, it will be very much in the style of all of the Russian offensives we've seen up to this point, methodical and incremental and continuing attrition. I think attrition still has a long way to go, and I think that the Russians are still intent on fighting the war that way. I don't know what your own view about that is. I agree with that. I think that is how Russia will conduct any future offensive. I think when we look at the operation to take Bakhmut, they openly said that

that was to inflict attrition on Ukraine. That was not supposed to be a big arrow offensive where we sweep in and take the city. And this was what made the criticism across the West that it's taking so long and that reflects Russian weakness. That's kind of invalidated that because they never said that they were trying to sweep in

and take the city. It was supposed to be methodical and to grind down Ukrainian forces. And I think you're right. There's still a lot of attrition that needs to take place. And Russia will do. that because look at what happens when you do a big arrow offensive. If the other side still has

artillery positions, if they still have access to large quantities of mines, you will incur large losses in manpower and equipment. And I don't think Russia wants to see that. And I don't think they need to do that because they have the means. They have an advantage in long range fires. They can use that advantage to wear down Ukrainian defenses and, again, preserve manpower, their equipment, grind down Ukrainian forces, and only then move in to these positions, which is what they've been doing. It has been working. I think they will continue doing it. Yeah. Can I just ask Patrick again a further question, which is that we never actually hear the names of any of the top Russian commanders, or we very rarely do. When here's the name,

you know, General Gerasiv is supposed to be the overall commander. But I mean, he's clearly, you know, quite remote in some ways. One doesn't hear who the divisional or core commanders are. Did the soldiers ever talk about these people? I mean, is there any, you know, when you meet soldiers from a particular unit, will they tell you I belong to general pop-offs force or anything of that kind?

Or is it just a sense that they're part of a military system and they're mainly professional soldiers, as I understand, it or reservists, and that they're doing their job and that they have confidence in their command, but they're not particularly concerned about the individuals. Well, I mean, there's some of that and not so much, but I can say about where I've been this week with the Pitnashka Battalion, and their commanders name Abkhaz, and he's fairly... I would say very much respected in their battalion.

So he's, uh, people have a lot of pride, you know, so working for him. You know, that's the overall thought I get. But,

you know, back in the day, when you had the Motorola and the Givie and all this, you know, there's nobody really, you know, that's, uh,

much of a, uh, in the limelights right now. Um, but, you know, I, I,

I would say, the, you know, the one that sticks out for me is Pitnashka with the commander up cause, but, you know, every battalion and division is different. Yeah. Yeah.

Interesting. Well, I don't know what other people have to say. I mean, we're talking about military equipment and I'm going to say, by the way, I think that we're going to see this gap in equipment levels actually

increase. I think the Russians have only got started in terms of military production. I think anybody who knows the situation will understand a lot better what I'm saying. Because, I mean, the other thing to say is, I mean, we've talked about factory space. We've talked about, in previous programs, factory space, sub components, supply chains, trained workforces. the other thing you need, of course, and the Russians do have this to an extreme degree, our project managers.

Russia has always been very good in project managed. We don't have that to anything like the same extent in the West anymore. So I think that the difference here is going to grow. I think whatever the current levels of production in Russia are, they're simply going to go on increasing. I mean, there will obviously be, you know, finite point beyond which they can't increase anymore, but I don't think we're anywhere close to it.

In fact, I think we're going to see another big surge next year. So I think that this is going to increase, the difference is the gap is going to increase, the gap in the professionalism of the two armies is going to increase. What are we going to do in the West? What is, have you any, I mean, what do you feel the United States, which is ultimately the United States? I mean, we saw General Millie with his bank of screens. He's clearly the person who's really in charge. What is he telling the president? What is the president going to do?

I mean, they're looking at this situation. They must be seeing a deteriorating situation. You get the sense that Millie understands it. What is your sense of what they're going to do, Brian? Are they going to double down? are they going to try and come up with some more wonder weapons? Are they going to provide more missiles? I mean, do they have a winning strategy of any kind?

No, they don't have a winning strategy. The entire conflicts from 2014 onward, this was all extremely misguided. The idea that you're going to encircle and contain both Russia, and we cannot forget China, because that is part of the big picture. This is what the United States is doing. Ukraine, it's just one part, this much bigger puzzle the U.S. is trying to put together. There is no way for them to do it.

There was no way for them to do it back in 2014. And as time goes by, you pointed out this gap that's going to only grow. If you read that New York Times article, they're basically agreeing with that sentiment. And then if you consider China and it's much larger industrial base, it's obvious that there is no winning strategy. There is no winning strategy for the United States to reassert its hegemony over the globe. This is not going to happen. The problem is, and as both yourself and Alex always point out, they do not have a reverse gear. They cannot win this economically, militarily, strategically.

They also are incapable of accepting psychologically that they cannot achieve this. So they're just going to continue pushing forward until one disaster, followed by another and it continues to compound. I think the breakthrough in China with this Huawei, mate 60 pro phone with an indigenous microchip inside that should not exist because of the U.S. sanctions, this increase in Russian production that the New York Times is saying should not exist but does because Russians are sneaking across borders with backpacks full of microchips or something like that. It's only going to continue. And again, There's not even a serious effort in the West.

They see this problem. They're talking about it now. There's no serious conversation about what to actually do to resolve this. They're expanding artillery shell production inadequately. They're not talking about the next step after that to even match Russian production, let alone exceed it. There's not even a conversation being had. So they're detached from reality,

and they're drifting further and further into this fantasy, where they can somehow turn the tide. with propaganda, PR, these pinprick attacks, like what we saw in Crimea. I don't know if we want to talk about that and put that into proper perspective. We should actually, I mean, these pinprick attacks, maybe, you know, they are, I mean, because to me, that is all that they are. I mean, this is mainly theater now. I mean, obviously, sometimes embarrassing for the Russians when it happens, but it's,

not going to change anything in the end. You did a very good program on the attackans missiles, which you pointed out, you know, that if missiles like the attackers could change the whole battle, the whole course of the war, then it would have already been changed because the Russians have the same types of weapons, only many more of them. Absolutely. And you pointed out that the attackums is different than say the Storm Shadow or the scalp, because those are cruise missiles, attack comes is a ballistic missile launched by a land-based platform while the other two cruise missiles are air launched. Russia has the Iskander, which has both a ballistic missile and also a cruise missile version. So they have both versions, plus they also have air-launched cruise missiles,

plus ship-launched cruise missiles. So they have everything that Ukraine is being given, but on a much larger scale. Plus, they have capabilities that Ukraine will never have. never not not in the foreseeable future so it is it is not something that is going to change the tide it will definitely do damage these missiles do get through the attack on on the naval base on the dry docks did it did seem to do damage possibly even destroy two to naval vessels the attack on the airports when was that that was two two three weeks ago so so it's not happening nearly often enough for this to actually impact Russian combat power. It would have to happen almost daily as Russia attacks are carried out. It would have to happen almost daily to begin impacting

Russian combat power and remember again that Russia is doing the same sort of damage daily to Ukraine. Russia has much more to, to, they can afford to take these losses. Ukraine cannot. That's my view. If you have any thoughts to add to that, Patrick, about these attacks on Crimea, I mean, well, I mean, we've, of course, the biggest, you know, saddest attacks is when the civilians are killed, unfortunately. And we see that, you know, with the two times Ukraine has attacked the bridge, both times civilians have been killed. And, I mean, and yesterday with the attack that's, I believe, injured 24. killed two, now not necessarily all civilians. Yes, soldiers die in war.

It is what it is. But the civilians, and I believe a month ago or maybe two months ago now, there was a 14-year-old girl killed in Crimea from one of these pinprick, as we say, attacks. But it's just happening across not only in Crimea, Belgrade, and other parts of Russia. And as Brian says, I mean, there's just, you know, there's. not happening often enough to really make any difference. It's more of a message Ukraine is sending not really any functionality to it, but just saying, okay, yeah, we can do this every once in a while. Look at us. Woo, woo, we could kill civilians in mainland Russia. But as far as making any real

headway, as far as their purpose on the war in the front line goes, not much of a difference I'd say. It won't be. you know there was an interesting thing about these sort of missions that really stood out for me and by the way the British are taking credit for the attack on the dry dock they say it was their storm shadows Boris Johnson is coming out today saying we should supply even more we don't have any by the way but such as we have we should supply them all basically to the Ukraine And Putin actually gave a very interesting interview whilst he was in the Far East.

And he was talking about one of these Ukrainian commander groups that were sent into Russia to destroy power lines to a nuclear reactor inside Russia to trigger a nuclear incident. And Putin said that the Ukrainians were all captured and they've all been interrogated. and that they were trained to do this by the British, that they were British instructors.

And Putin was asking, do the British know? Does the government in London understand this? I mean, was this a rogue operation by British intelligence people? All quite possible, by the way. But I will say this, I really do find all these pinprick attacks that we see. They do have a very British feel. about them. If you go back to the Second World War, especially after the fall of France, the British spent a large part of the war doing this kind of thing to the Germans, because

there wasn't very much else that they could do. And we've become infected, addicted in Britain, with this kind of thing ever since then, this sort of cloak and dagger, um, James Bond type operation, and you have all the films that came up, came out after the Second World War, the coppoleshell heroes, the guns of Navarone, all of those kind of things. And actually, when you look back, and, you know, historians have looked back into this now, and they've decided that none of this made any difference to the outcome of the war at all. It didn't change anything about the direction or the duration of the Second World War. They were completely irrelevant. And one senses that the British and the Ukrainians have come together in some kind of way. And they're doing this all over again in this war.

And it's often ugly and it's often dramatic. and it's irrelevant ultimately as well. That's my own feelings about this. I would agree with that. And when you look at World War II, what was the deciding factor? It was Soviet and American industrial output. That is what won the war for the Allies.

So the British, in their situation, there was nothing else they could do. So at least they could try to do this. And so they did it, because it was the only thing that they could do. But if it was just them doing that and there was no Soviet Union or America, maybe you would be doing this interview in German, maybe, because the British would have lost.

And so it is. It's the exact same situation all over again, except it is the collective West. They are resorting to these sort of tactics because they don't have the ability to provide Ukraine with what it actually needs to match or exceed Russian combat power. It's just the reality of it. Oh, I did. I wanted to ask Patrick, we've been seeing these drone attacks in Russia.

We see these attacks on, say, the Crimean Bridge or ports in Crimea. When people in the areas that you're traveling here about these news stories, is it defeating them, their morale, or is it galvanizing them? Well, as far as Crimea goes, I was there a little under a month ago, and it's really, it has brought down the tourism this summer. I mean, it's a fact. People are nervous, especially, I got there just, I'd say, about a week and a half after the second attack on the bridge. And a lot of people, people that I knew and that had planned to go to Crimea, kind of diverted their plans to other parts, other beaches in Russia. So it's brought down the tourism.

Locals that are definitely not happy about it. But, you know, overall it doesn't make a huge difference, but of course it does bring down the morale in, let's say, Crimea, just because, you know, they didn't think there was going to be war there, you know. Gosh. Well, as I said, I don't think it's going to change anything. I would also say that this focus on Crimea to me also has a British look to it. I mean, we had a war with the Russians there way back in the 1850s, and we've never got over it. I mean, we still talk about that war. People still, the books come out about it all the time. There was one a couple of years ago by Orlando Fiji's, for example. British historian, but these attacks, these pin-pric attacks on the Crimea, especially, again, they have a British look, a British feel, and they're not going to change the war. If they can't break through the lines in Zaporosia, they're not going to ultimately change anything in Crimea itself.

That's my games. Yes, and I also just kind of want to ask Patrick a little bit more. People are kind of demoralized because, let's face it, for eight years, Crimea did enjoy peace and prosperity compared to the rest of Ukraine. They dodged a bullet, so to speak, but now we see these attacks. So now it's being brought to them. And I think that is one of the objectives of these attacks, as Alexander says. it's not going to change the outcome of the fighting, but it does bring the conflict to Crimea, and it attempts to undermine the peace and prosperity that Crimea had enjoyed.

People that are demoralized, are they having second thoughts about joining the Russian Federation? Or do they just feel that, you know, this is an unpleasant situation? They're unhappy about it, but they still realize that if they were part of Ukraine, things probably could have been a lot worse. How do people feel? That's, you know, another thing that, you know, the people in the West. I mean, it's like there's such a separation between Dunbass and Crimea. I mean, the biggest thing about Crimea, I mean, before 1956, Crimea was part of Russia.

So, I mean, the people of Crimea are Russian. You know, they've wanted to be part of Russia. They've waited for Russia for years. And I mean, they're Russia now. So there's, you know, there's no second thoughts about becoming part of Russia because their heritage is Russia for the most part. So, I mean, you know, there's no, you know, no hindsight of thinking, oh, maybe we shouldn't have done. No, even though war is slowly inching its way, you know, they're still strong in their beliefs.

of Russia and they're going to be Russia. Yes. Alex, should we perhaps, if both of you have some time, perhaps we should just touch on some of the questions that we'll have from the viewers maybe at this point. No. I mean, I think I've gone through the things I wanted to sound. We're an hour and a half into it.

You guys want to take some questions. If you guys have time, if you guys need to go, just also let us know. and you guys need to go. Take a question or two. Yeah, just let us know when you need to go, Patrick. And I'll just run through the questions that people sent and we'll wrap up the stream. You know, I'm listening to you guys talk about the UK and the question that I have to all three of you is,

when is Russia going to get sick of the stuff that the UK is doing to it? That's a very good question. You know what I mean? I mean, when I was in Moscow, I mean, you could see that the constant cancellation of flights. I mean, I understand that the war is going on and there's some serious things going on. But all of these pinprick attacks, all of these attacks that are happening in Crimea or Moscow or the drones, what the EU is doing now with the confiscation of Russian personal belongings, I mean, it's all meant to to poke and to inconvenient. and to belittle Putin, the Russian government, and the Russian people. So I just wonder, all the stuff that the UK is doing, the asset freezes, the asset confiscation, all these things.

I just wonder how long the Putin government can put up with it. I don't know. Just the thought that I'm having. That's listening to all you guys. It's a question. It's a question nobody seriously debates in Britain. The debate in Britain has essentially collapsed. I'll give you an example, which is absolutely nothing to do with this current war,

but it's all about the last one, which is Tobias Elwood, who is a former British military officer and a British Conservative MP, and he was the chairman of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, a fervid, fervid hardliner, a full-on support of the war, somebody who's talked in the past, almost as if Britain ought to be directly involved in the war. So, you know, a person whose opinions,

whose positions can't be questioned in any way, well, he went on a trip to Afghanistan. He came back to Britain. He said, well, I went to Afghanistan. The security situation there is transformed, who's peace, the economy is stable, and open production. has fallen radically, all of which, of course, is true.

So what happens? He's immediately sacked. He can't remain chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. This utterly hardline individual simply by saying, this has just happened over the last, you know, 36 hours, simply by making some factual comments about the situation in Afghanistan, that was enough to get him sack. I would like to add that definitely the hardliners in Russia, they're always impatient.

They always want to see more. And I think that if you're leading a country like Russia, you always want people to be asking you to do more than people saying you're doing too much and become in opposition to what you're doing. It's always good to have them prodding you to do more. But if you look back to say the Russian intervention in Syria at the invitation of Damascus in 2015 onward, there were all kinds of provocations meant to humiliate and undermine Russia geopolitically as well as kill Russians on the battlefield there. And what did Russia do? They were very patient. And it seemed as if in their mind revenge is simply winning the conflict.

And that is what they did. And they have seriously complicated, not just America's position in eastern Syria, but their entire position in the Middle East is in danger now because Russia refused to be provoked. And I think they're going to do the same thing. And I was listening to a Chinese commentator, Victor Gao, he was on British media. And they were saying, you know, does try to see Britain as a competitor or an adversary or an enemy? And he said, no, we just want to live in peace with. the UK. How can the UK be a competitor with us? China's going to be the largest exporter of

automobiles, including EVs. Can the UK compete with us? No. They're not even thinking about the UK. So the UK is more of this nuisance than anything else. And this is the role that they're trying to play. They're the provocateur. And I think best for Russia is to just win. That will be the greatest revenge against what the British government is doing right now. I agree with that completely. All right. Let's do some questions. Let's take some questions.

Tropical Rocket says, thank you, Patrick. It's the envy storm, says Flex. Christie says, afternoon from Kent, UK. Secudram, thank you for that super sticker. Stana, thank you for that super sticker. Not a bad account says, how close is Ukraine to pushing back into Russia. Not close.

I think that's a mischievous question. Not a bad to count. They always like to ask these interesting questions. I mean, not even pushing back into Russia. Not even close to pushing into the territory that Russia now considers its territory that was previously Ukrainian. I mean, look at the offensive. They're throwing absolutely everything that's.

they have and they're still fighting over these villages that they've been fighting over for the last three now almost you know going out to four months yeah not a bad account also asks uh would trump's return and bold in his friend putin well actually puttins answered that he said it would make absolutely no difference he said uh he actually went into this in great detail he said you know remember trump when he was president imposed more sanctions on us so he he says that whoever wins the presidency. It's not going to make any difference. And he certainly doesn't expect anything from Trump. Hugo Chavez says, ask Elon Musk to hook Patrick up with Starlink. Get in touch with Starlink with Elon Patrick.

I'm not sure if that one will fly. Yeah. Hugo Chavez says, people are talking about the U.S. election causing a frozen conflict. Do you suppose that Russia will create a spectacle of Ukrainian losses to upset Biden. Well, it's possible. I mean, the Russians have repeatedly ruled out this idea of a frozen conflict. Shoygu is the latest person to say that. I mean, he's just made comments about the fact that the only satisfactory outcome for Russia is victory. That, I mean, that's what he said.

Sanjava says, guys, what do you think about some commentators, like Russians with attitude, etc., predicting that conflict will last for decades. If it does, it's a loss for Russia, isn't it? Well, I know Russians with attitude, and, I mean, it depends how you define conflict. If you mean conflict with the West, I think that's going to go on pretty much for the rest of my lifetime. If you mean conflict with the conflict in Ukraine itself, frankly, I don't. I don't see how it can. I mean, looking at what is happening to Ukraine now,

I don't see how it can. I don't think the Ukrainians themselves think it can, by the way. If you follow closely what the Ukrainians are saying, I think that they're becoming increasingly nervous and very, very angry. And I don't know whether you've all seen my program about Zelensky's interview with the economist. But I mean, he's clearly becoming angry and frightened.

And when somebody's angry, it's always a sign that they're frightened. The offensive hasn't succeeded. Their losses are extremely high. West cannot support them to the extent that it has in the past. I don't see how it can continue for years. And in terms of decades, I mean, there's, oh, sorry, go ahead, Patrick. Well, I mean, me personally, you know, I hope soon, you know, peace comes, but I'll get asked this question quite often. I personally think somewhere between a year maybe two could be totally wrong.

I hope I am. I hope it's sooner. But, I mean, we all know Russian law says that her son, Zaporosia, Danyetsk, and Lugansk are legally part of Russia. You know, as I say, regardless of what the West and United States wants or thinks, that's what Russian law says. So there's no way Russia is not going to take control of those territories while it still exists. So what's more likely?

Russia is going to collapse or Russia is going to take control of those territories? I think it's pretty self-explanatory. How far past those territories it'll go? Who knows? I agree with that. I think it will probably be years rather than a year or two. But we have to remember there's other clocks that are ticking, including de-dollarization and the emergence of multipolarism and all of that is going to play a factor in how long. Because think about Syria. What is now limiting the U.S.'s ability to perpetuate that indefinitely?

multipolarism and devolarization and the shift geopolitically in the Middle East. I think something very similar will begin to happen in other areas around the globe, perhaps even in Europe. Their economy is not going to be able to sustain this. So there are other clocks ticking that could change this. Pella Zero says Patrick Lancaster, keep up the good work. So we all see what's going on. Thank you from NL.

I'll try. Osox says, I suspect the elections in Dombas are more fair than the federal elections we have in the U.S. as of late. Maybe. Dangerous says, great live stream. Thanks, Alex, Alexander, Brian, and Patrick. Keep up the amazing work. Let's see. Summer of 1970s, says Best Geopolitical Channel on the net.

Rafik Adams says, when will Putin decide to end the war? And what does it look like? I cannot understand why he alive. allows these attacks to continue as it emboldens Ukraine to continue. Why not just end it to save lives? Well, I mean, that presupposes that Vladimir Putin has unlimited power and can simply press a switch and end the war tomorrow. He has to work with the resources he has.

Now, they're very considerable. We've talked about this, but they're not unlimited. And of course, it's not as if the other side doesn't have resources as well. So, I mean, you can't just stop attacks by, you know, Ukraine on Donets, for example. I mean, it's something that clearly is taking time to do. So it's not an option for him in that kind of a way. I mean, I think that this is a misunderstanding of the reality. is. Patrick, Brian, any thoughts?

Well, I would just say that think about mobilization in Russia. In the very, very beginning, was that even possible? And some people say yes. Some people say no. But as the conflict continues, as Ukraine attacks within Russia, it makes it more possible. It gives Moscow more capital. As Alexander said, Moscow is not all powerful. So they have to think of a multitude of factors, not just their own military capabilities, but domestic Russian politics, the sentiment across the Russian population, as well as their allies, India. Imagine if Russia went in full tilt into Ukraine in February 2022, how difficult it would have been for Russia to convince India to lean in their direction rather than the West. Think about how powerful the West's propaganda was

in the very beginning. So this is, this demonstrates just how deep and how far into the future Russia is thinking versus the reflexive, almost reptilian instincts of the West. And I think it is working out. And again, if you followed the Syrian conflict from 2011 up until now, you will see that this patience does really pay off. And that if you try to rush it, there are consequences. There's possible escalation, things going in the opposite direction that you want them to go.

for patrick for patrick we hear a lot of pro- ukraine propaganda but i suspect ukraine is close to collapse oh boy i lost it uh do you get a sense of any of this from the soldiers you meet the russian soldiers that you meet and what they report to you do you have a sense of ukraine military's changing composition age and equipment strategies or morale well you know what i'm on the front line, like I said, I talked to the soldiers about what they're feeling, and their morale hasn't changed so much. This is the Russian soldiers. As far as the morale and composition of the Ukrainian soldiers, I'm the wrong one to ask. But the Russians are steadfast in their confidence of victory, whatever it may come. When, they don't know. All right. At GEG says,

for Brian, do you see Russia's purchase of NK ammunition as a sign of replacing shortfalls, Russia's running out of ammo, or more a sign of stockpiling reserves for future conflict? I don't know that we've actually confirmed that this is happening. This is something the West claims is happening. Of course, Russia is obviously and openly stating they're going to have a closer relationship with North Korea in a conflict like this, the more, the better for Russia. So even if they were able to manufacture everything themselves, getting additional surplus can't possibly hurt,

but we have to confirm that that's actually happening. I think they probably don't need it, but if they could get it, that would probably be positive. I want to endorse that. I mean, the entire coverage of this meeting between Putin and Kim Jong-un in the West has been almost exclusively around this question of the Russians buying ammunition from the Koreans, the North Koreans. If you actually look at what the North Koreans and the Russians are saying,

they talk about lots and lots and lots of important things and very interesting things. That's the one thing they've never talked about. They've never actually talked about buying North Koreans selling ammunition to the Russians. So this is pure speculation at the moment. We've got no evidence it's happening at all. And the focus on it is taking people away from the important things that the Russians and the North Koreans are publicly saying that they're going to start doing with each other. And the irony is the only confirmed use of North Korean munitions in this conflict has been by Ukraine because the West seized North Korean munitions and gave them. to Ukraine because the West is so short on munitions.

That is an irony. Yeah, Sanjava says the problem is this is really a war between Russia and the USA, and the war isn't affecting the USA as much as Russia or Europe. So by not finishing this war quickly, is Russia shooting itself in the foot? Well, first of all, I think the United States is more affected by this war than it perhaps understands, or at least than leaders understand. This is one point, by the way, the way, where I mean, John Mayersheimer in that program that we did, he said that the American

perception is that they're not affected, but they are affected. We're seeing again how oil prices are rising. And one of the reasons oil prices are rising is because as a result of the wool supply chains for oil have been disrupted largely by the United States itself. So the US is affected. Its military stockpiles are running down. And more to the point, the war is acting as a catalyst around the world for changes in the geopolitical situation. We see the Russians and the North Koreans talking to each other. We see the G20 uniting, the global South countries, uniting against the United States at the G20.

We see lots of things like that going on around the world. So I think the US is affected. And I think there are some people. like Samuel Charrup in the US, who are actually trying to warn people in Washington about that. I would say, at the right, I would somewhat push back on this, for the moment, I'm not advocating a long war,

but for the moment, the effect of the long war, is it's making the Russians stronger, their economy is surging, their alliances and friendships, around the world are hardening. And it's the United States that you're seeing its arsenals deplete

and countries around the world start maneuvering against it. So Long War seems for the moment to be favoring the Russians more than the Americans. That's my sense, at least. And wasn't Saudi Arabia and Iran repairing ties, wasn't that spurred

by the oil, the cap, the price cap. Exactly, exactly. Sparky says Patrick, thanks for your on the ground observations and insights. And I'd like to point out something. Just in the time that we've been sitting here on this stream, most recently, just about 10 minutes ago, there was an attack near the train station in Dunnetsk. Some shells came down on a presumably residential area of information.

is coming in now and also an attack on Petrovka District of Danyetsk and Gorylovak and it's not clear exactly how serious yet but shells coming down so that gives us kind of an idea

and I'm not sure if you guys can actually hear it but there's I can hear lights is shelling in a distance as well right now I can't I can't hear it but I mean from what I can understand, almost a routine thing now, but a terrible routine, a routine with which people get killed. Nina says Alexander McCurris, genius Patrick Lancaster hero.

Nina, what about me and Brian, Nina? Let's see. Jason says the strategy of the U.S. is to accelerate the great resets. Let me see here. Sparky says build back, build a better world with bricks. Mobya Zero says, why do people think Russia is so weak? Why do people think that? Why do people think Russia? If I can say so for hundreds of years, there's nothing new about this.

I mean, Napoleon thought. A very good question for Moby's. Charles, 12th. All of these people always end up thinking it. And it always turns out horribly wrong, but they go on thinking it. I mean, I don't know. It's a great question. Can I just say, I mean, we're talking about morale and, you know, the effect of all of these things.

I mean, and the effect, for example, of missile strikes on Crimea and whatever. Now, the only time I've ever been close to a, well, a war zone, if you like, was in, believe it or not, in Moscow. I was there in Moscow in the early 2000s when there were terrorist bombs being exploded there on an enormous scale. And I was there at the time of Eslan, when, you know, that town, that school was taken, the hostages were taken. And I can remember when bombs were being placed on Russian civilian jets and they were being blown up. And, of course, I had a comparison because I remembered the terrorist events in London in the 1970s. And again, in the early, in the mid-2000s over, you know, the attacks on the London undergrad. And I have to say, the thing that struck me was how very disciplined the Russian population is.

They just get on with their lives. It didn't seem to be particularly phased by this. They talk about it, but there wasn't the sense of panic and dismay that I can remember in London. So, you know, why do people think that Russia is weak? because it's not never has been it's it's it's a mistake that westerners constantly make because they're living with stereotypes of russia rather than the real country and i would i would add that the same applies to their perception of china they think it's some sort of inferior country with inferior people when in reality they are

they are surpassing not just the u.s but g7 combined and no matter what the u.s tries to do to undermine China, they are finding ways to overcome it. So it is the classic mindset where people project onto these people that they're inferior, and that is their own undoing, underestimating them. Yeah. Harry Smith says both McGregor and Martianov had independently confirmed Russia planned from the start of the SMO to take about 30 months. So we've got just under a year left.

Well, that's their predictions. I mean, I'm not going to say more. Let's see here. Robert says, what are the chances of NATO guiding Ukraine into a failed state in the event of defeat with terrorists in the lead like it tries to do in the Middle East and North Africa? I don't think it's going to happen, actually. I know a lot of people think that, but I don't think that Russia will allow a failed state, like that kind of situation to arise in Ukraine.

I think that they would see that as a danger to themselves, and they would do something to prevent it. Elsa says, I'm not a military expert, but the only wonder weapons that seem to work are chips from washing machines that are used for Russian military equipment. True. True. Raoul says it's been a long time since I managed to get a live show.

However, I never miss a Durant show. Thanks for coming on Twitter. Thank you, Raul, for that. I'm just working through the questions, guys. If the missiles had ruptured the reactors, would the West be as happy? How many countries would that of effective? Well, I don't know. I mean, I'm not going to just get into the technologies.

the effects of all of this. I presume we're talking now about the Zaporosia nuclear power plant and the attacks on it. But the rumors are that there was a plan by Ukraine to carry out some kind of major event at the Zaporosia nuclear power plant, that the Russians gave lots of warnings about it. And the European governments were dismayed, and they phoned up Zelensky, and they told him under no circumstance. to it. And that was a couple of months ago. So I think that they will not let it happen. As far as the Zaporosian nuclear power plant, when I was there, I guess about two months ago, I spoke to one of the advisors to the director of the Russian power company that operates the

the plant right now. And he told me that the reactors are so strong themselves, it would take such a huge explosion. I mean, little rockets and mortars and even mines, like Zlinitsky was saying mines were being put by Russia on top of the reactors. Even that wouldn't affect the structural integrity of the reactors themselves. So the reactors, what weren't actually the, the issue. The issue was some of the waste that was being stored near there could possibly be affected by an attack or, of course, the possibility of a dirty bomb being sensed by Ukraine. But the reactors themselves, I've been told by the workers there and they're just not a threat, really.

Interesting. Michael, thank you for that. Super chat. Ralph, thank you for that. Sahir, thank you for that. Let me see, ISO 982. Thank you. Rafiq Adams says, when will Putin decide to end the war? And what does it look like? Well, he doesn't...

Why not just end the war to save more lives? Well, two things. I think you've answered this. If you're talking about a negotiated solution to the war, than by definition and negotiation requires two parties to it. That's something I think we can all agree with. And Putin's already made clear what Russia's conditions in negotiations would be. And I don't see any sign at all that anybody in the West is interested

in meeting those conditions or anyone in Ukraine is. If you're talking about achieving a military victory, well, we've talked about how that isn't some. something that it is in Putin's absolute power to achieve tomorrow. So, I mean, you know, he's got to work towards a victory. The Russians do these things just by their nature take time. If you're talking about him capitulating and walking away, well, it's not happening. And nobody in Russia, there's overwhelmingly people in Russia.

and even more overwhelmingly, I suspect, people in Donbass and in Crimea don't want him to do that. So, I mean, that's the only answer I can give you, I think. I don't know what the others have to say. Well, I would add to that. A lot of people imagine that Russia entering into Ukraine, waging the special military operation, is a lot like the U.S. invading Iraq, but it isn't. Ukraine is geographically larger. its population is larger, its military is larger, better trained, better armed.

Even at this point, this late in the conflict, and after all of the losses Ukraine has suffered, they still have air defense capabilities that prevents Russia from operating their military aviation freely over the entirety of Ukraine's airspace. So all of these things are constraints on Russia. And it's not as if any other country on Earth would have an easier time doing this. As a matter of fact, I was talking with Scott from Calibrated about this on another program, and we were talking about how the U.S. would actually have had a harder time if it was them going into Ukraine because they lacked the amount of artillery that is actually making this possible for Russia,

despite all of the differences between Ukraine and Iran. People have to keep all of these factors in mind. Ron, can I just ask very quickly, did you see? see this thing in Rousie where there's Jack Wattling who's one of the Rusey experts because we hear so much about combined arms he said he

actually witnessed a training exercise in which an American armoured unit, this is a unit that you know highly trained American soldiers equipped with all the tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and things like that tried to break

through a notional defence line in an exercise, a defence line far less effective than the Suroviki line. And they weren't, I mean, it was a complete failure in this exercise. And he said that he's spent night, he's had nights

you know, wet, awake thinking about this even before this Ukrainian offensive was launched. So they're talking about getting the Ukrainians to do things, which even the United States, according to Watling, in just exercises, wasn't able to do. I have not seen that, but what that tells me is that,

what you ask Patrick, what it tells me is that there are people in the U.S. military who are being objective, who are looking at this and understand the realities of all of this. And we all talked about the U.S. and, say, Desert Storm breaching Iraq's minefields and how they were able to do that because of the capabilities that they had and because of the reality of the state, the Iraqi military was in. The Russian Federation today is nowhere near that. It's so far beyond what Iraq was. So all the advantages that the U.S. had been, it does not have with Russia.

And everyone is now starting to point out that the United States itself has never gone up against an integrated air defense system like Russia's. not ever done that. So to think that the U.S. would be able to do this is a misconception, and then to think that Ukraine can do it without any air power at all, that is asking for the impossible. Adnan Kalarissian says, as far as I'm concerned, Putin has to finish this nonsense and finish this now, ASAP. Well, I think we've answered that question. Yeah, Rafi says, what is your opinion on the recent spat between Musk and the Biden administration regarding Starlink access?

I did to make my own, I did a few observations. Well, first of all, I mean, the story was wrong. The original story, I think, is now wrong, and it all started with something that was said in a book about must and the person who's written out of now retractable. But ultimately, I mean, I've been hearing so much about this story. It's not a game-changing event in. terms of the of the war and starlink overall has been enormously useful to ukraine so there might have been some

well the fact the word about any problems with this particular attack but overall without starling ukraine couldn't have conducted the war in the way that it has at all and um criticizing musk in this kind of way, is very much a case, again, of biting the hand that feeds you. And looking for a scapegoat because they're pretending as if, if Elon Musk allowed this to happen, then the outcome of all of this would have been different when in reality it wouldn't have been. And there was that financial, I believe it was the financial times, that former British Army general talking about how, you know, we need to sink the Black Sea fleet. Even if you sank the entire Black Sea Fleet. Russia would still be able to fire cruise missiles at Ukraine.

That would not really change that much, honestly. And so to think that this one attack that they were going to use Starlink for, that that was a game changer. Again, it goes back to this mindset of thinking there are a such thing as a game changer in the first place when there isn't. Yeah. Paul Walker says reactors for the ships, not for the Zabadoja nuclear power plant. Right. Reactors are on the ships. Yeah, I mean, there are no nuclear-powered Russian warships in the Black Sea. I think that's, I think.

That's the question, yeah. Yeah, I mean, there are no nuclear powered Russian warships in the Black Sea. That is not where Russia has its nuclear fleet. I mean, it's in the North, the Northern Fleet, in the Arctic and in the Pacific, but not in the Black Sea. So the question just doesn't arise. there are conventionally powered Russian warships in the Black Sea, and very powerful that there are none that use reactors. Space Coke says,

do you see a realistic chance for Europe to become independent from NATO and the USA? Not in any foreseeable future. I mean, there might be futures which are difficult to foresee now, but in the foreseeable future, the answer, as far as I'm concerned, is no. Hugo Chavez wants to know, Patrick, Brian, Alexander. Do any of you like anime? Well, hardly. I mean, it's not something I really followed very much at all.

I mean, it's more your part of the world. Perhaps a little closer to some of the work you do, Brian. I mean, I can't say. So I know it seems very remarkable. But I mean, I'm not an expert on this or in any way really able to comment about it. I mean, I kind of, at times I had gotten into it, I really have no time now. I have two very young kids, so they watch kind of more children-oriented Japanese animation. I don't know if you would call it anime or not.

Patrick, are you a secretly major anime fan? Not particularly. I actually, I lived in Japan for quite a few years when I was in the Navy, but never really, the anime never really took to me. Never took to you. All right. Jeremy, thank you for that super sticker. Latimeros says thanks to Durant team and the two guests for an interesting discussion and updates. And Brent says, parliamentary report on the state of the Royal Air Force is damning.

It's a broken force. earth is the UK picking fights with anybody when by its own admission it couldn't defend a cake stall well I'm not going to start on the British military I hadn't been aware about the Air Force what I can what I do know is that out of the 120 tanks that the British military has apparently only 40 year operation so 40 I mean Patrick I'm sure you've seen many more tanks than just 40 over the course of your war. Did I hear you correctly? You said that only has 40 tanks?

Yes, they have only 40 operational tanks. They have about 120 in total of which, let's say, but the others, apart from the 40 that they keep operational are apparently being used as spares for the 40 that they actually operate. So that is the reality of the British military today. You know, the army that defeated Napoleon at Waterloo, that, you know, once spanned the globe and, you know, fought the first and second world wars.

Anyway, it's down to 40. And invented the tank, by the way. It's down to 50 tanks. And they sent all their AS90 self-propelled artillery systems or virtually all of them. same with France and the Caesar. So it really when people say Russia is demilitarizing NATO, it's not entirely far from the truth.

No. It's not a stretch. Mobius Zero says all these people saying Russia is weak and losing because they don't terminate Ukraine with extreme prejudice. People do realize we are dealing with an insane hegemon, the U.S. that would love to use nukes. Well, I don't know about whether they would love to use nukes, but you're absolutely right. This isn't just a war between Russia and Ukraine.

It was. It would have been over last year. In the early part, within the first few months of the military operation, the first few weeks, it would have been over. The reason it's going on is because it is a conflict between Russia and America. and General Millie has helpfully confirmed that. He didn't disagree that it was a proxy war, and there he was with his banks of screens and control rooms, and pretty obvious that he's running things.

Saajeva says, guys, do you think it's time for Russia to articulate what victory will look like? It could make it easier for the Russian population to withstand these drone strikes and obstacles to daily life going forward. I don't think that the Russians, the Russian leadership has fully, has itself fully decided what the end outcome is going to be. So I don't think they want to box themselves in by doing that. And I think we just know the minimum. Exactly.

We know the minimum. Absolutely. That's the first thing. The other thing is, of course, if they start pitching their position, it might have international implications. So, I mean, you know, again, they don't want to box themselves. in there where they're Chinese and Indian friends who say, well, look, you know, you've got there, you must stop because that's where you've told us that you're going to stop. Or alternatively, they don't want to say that they want too much which countries overseas,

like China and India, might not be happy with. So I think ambiguity is probably working to their advantage at the moment. versus the maximalist demands that Ukraine has made that they've painted themselves into a corner. The other thing to consider is that just as Ukrainian attacks on Russia helped galvanize the Russian people around Moscow, if Russia took it too far, they could give the West a pretext to begin mobilizing their own society. Right now, I can't even imagine under what conditions the West would be able to mobilize their populations for this. people are disinterested, they don't care, and I think Russia would like to keep it that way. Agreed.

Good point. Completely agree. T.I. says invite Pravind Sauni, an Indian analyst. We'll do that. Let's see here. What is the panel's opinion on the recent piece by Colonel McGregor on the Ukraine War? War money in America's future. Unip Party risking war.

It's unprepared to fight. Why this insanity? I haven't read that piece. I haven't read that piece either. It's an omission of mine because I generally read all his pieces. But that one I haven't read. But I'm pretty sure it's much in line with the other pieces that he's written. And I think it's insightful.

I'm sure it'll be as insightful as the others. I would say this about Colonel McGregor with apologies to him. He's not always right in his predictions about tactical and operational events. but in his overall sense of the war and its outcome and what it's doing for the United States, I think there he's absolutely right. Rafiqa, no, wait. Ansuman Mishra says,

can we talk about Armenia? Hashinyan's rhetoric is getting more anti-Russian. Could it go the 2008 Georgia way or can it be stopped? I'm going to suggest that you watch our program about this, Alex and I have gone a dedicated, yeah, it's tomorrow. We'll have a program on that tomorrow. Mobius says why the hell do people think both Russia and China are weaker than bloody Uganda when that is far from the case.

It gets on my damn nerves. Well, you're completely right. I mean, Brian made the point about China. I just get to say this. I mean, I've talked about Russia many times and it's industrial strengths. If you talk about China, then you're in a completely different. different league again. I mean, just to say, Russian industrial output, you can measure it in steel production. Russian produces 6.3 million tons of steel a month, which is almost as much, by the

way, as the United States does. China produces 90, 90 million tons of steel a month. So that gives you a sense of what we're talking about. E. Austin says, why were two U.S. diplomats sent home from Russia? It's the game that both sides play. You send diplomats, you expel diplomats, you play these games. Maybe there's some spying involved, too. Who knows? Danielle says, thank you, Patrick, for bringing us the voice of the people of Dombas.

So respect that you learned the language, not easy, with all the losses. With all the losses, how could this war go on? Do you see an end soon, hoping for peace? Well, I think we've answered. Yeah, I think you've covered that, yeah. Yeah, and just to let people know, again, there's been another attack just in the last minutes in the Putalovki district of the Kiev, or the Kiyevsky district. There's a house burning right now, apparently. Adhiel says, why is everyone excited about the AFDE becoming popular in Germany?

They will be bullied into being exactly the same as the Schultz government, if not worse. Because if you know Germany at all, you will know that a change, even if the IFD gets bullied, it will be such a complete break in Germany's political system that it would be a big event in itself.

Alain Gibson, thank you for that. Lucolo, thank you for that. Kyle Wally says, have a good day. Rafi said, how long you think it will be before Putin concludes the West does not know how or is unwilling to end the war and escalates to end it on his own terms. I think he came to that conclusion months ago, actually. HP Lovecraft, thank you for that.

B-P. Plan, thank you for that. Paul Walker says their first, second, and third-line medical services are overrun. Recruiting those with TB, HIV is not the greatest of ideas. This is about Ukrainians, I think. Yeah. Yeah. Well, it wasn't there an announcement? I wasn't able to confirm this.

They were talking about conscripting 16-year-olds, Ukraine? Is this confirmed? Yeah, they're trying to extradite a lot of the men who are in Europe. I mean, that's the, there's a lot of countries now, which are starting to give answers as far as whether they're going to extradite, like Czech Republic and a few other countries said no. I think Ireland said yes. I'm not sure.

I'm not sure about that. That's interesting. I have to check it out. I'll be very interested to see what Britain says. But yes, there was a suggestion floated by Ukrainian official that they start recruiting 16-year-olds, which I have to say horrified me. Latimeros says at Sanjiva,

why do you think Russia government didn't articulate it for their own population? If you don't hear it in the West, it doesn't mean it wasn't done. Well, I mean, I think we've answered that question. Tim Gibson, thank you for that. Z special says Can the Duran get Major Dejan Berich from the DPR on the show? I'm certain he can answer some serious questions

from the DPR. He's a Patrick on this show. What was the name? Dejan Berwick Berich. Major. Dejan. Dejy. Decky.

Uh-huh. Well, I mean, it could be possible, but his English isn't that great. think it would really be a good fit for a live show. Terry Clark says there is a video going around claiming to be Ukraine Army shelling their own friend, shelling their own friendly fire. Is it current? Is it current? And Ukraine or the Russians? I mean, I haven't seen the video so I can't consider today.

I mean, it's not the kind of thing that we can, we can confirm or at least I can't confirm or review. Paul Walker says it's like a game. of knock down ginger with these Ukrainian attacks, yet the MSN lods over it. It's getting embarrassing being a Westerner. Yes. Mobia says here is a sick bet for you.

Who will nuke Japan first? Russia, China, North Korea, placed your bets. None of those countries, I hope. Something people don't understand is that China is Japan's largest trade partner. China is also South Korea's largest trade partner. As a matter of fact, most of the countries that the US is trying to recruit,

as a proxy against China, China is their largest trade partner. So when they are compelling these nations to take a position against China, they're actually compelling them to go against their own best interests very clearly. All right. Let's wrap it up. And thank you for joining Duran community. Hank, thank you for that. Elsa says, is there an impact on the Western cluster munitions depleted uranium shells on the battlefields?

Patrick. Are you seeing an impact? Well, I can tell. Yeah, I've seen cluster munitions. The United States supplied cluster bombs, but I've only seen them fired on civilian areas. In my last couple reports, I showed some of the aftermath of the residents showing me how United States cluster bombs came down on their homes.

So I haven't seen any effect on the front line yet, but I've only seen them in civilian areas. Raphael says, Brian, bro, both former U.S. Marines to repel and destroy all enemy attacks. We used to recite this every night. Why is Russia not applying it, too? I think Russia is, I think they've, I mean, they've repelled this massive offensive. The third army that NATO has transferred over to Ukraine in terms of equipment and trained manpower. I think they are repelling it right now. I mean, there's the reality of modern warfare that makes these things much more difficult than people imagine it to be.

Just go to Google Earth and zoom in and look at how big these areas are. And just imagine even if you have drones or satellites, how much difficulty it is to cover all of these areas. And if you have that much trouble just seeing the battlefield, how much trouble do you have dominating it with your weapons? So I think Russia is doing pretty well considering the realities of it all. Raphael says Russia is done fighting Ukraine. Russia is preparing the force necessary to protect China when NATO and specifically the U.S. attacks. Well, I think they still have the war in Ukraine to finish first. Hugo says apart from the Kurch detachment, are there any other

Are there any other anime appreciating units in Ukraine? Anime appreciating units in Ukraine? I know Kadidov is an anime fan. I really. I didn't. I didn't know. That I didn't know. Sparky says, make Ukraine Russia again.

Don't even lose a patch called Ukraine. At least it remain a NATO playground and money laundering. It might come to that. Santiago says, how many more losses can the Ukrainians actually take why is western media not addressing the bloodbath that is for the ukraine military that is for me this doesn't fit their narrative doesn't fit their narrative although they're beginning to they're beginning to you know and dominique says when we see generals like milly

displaying countless decorations one wonders if they represent certificates or incompetence or corruption according to that's right correct participation participated so he gets a ribbon he gets a ribbon and maria louisa says thank you and thank you for the information and guys uh thank you brian thank you patrick alexander two and a half almost two and a half hours thank you guys for sticking around and for answering everyone's questions and we're letting everybody know what's going on um a says out of topic will haveier milay wait in argentina we'll see Tucker carlson has a video from Argentina for the elections coming up on his channel on X.

All right. We'll wrap it up there. Any final thoughts, Patrick, Brian Alexander? Well, I think everybody that's online, thanks for sticking here with this. It's been a long one today. If you haven't subscribed to Duran and Brian's channel and my channel, and we've got a lot more to come. I have, I just want to say, Patrick said, I have all the information in the description box down below. And that's a pinned comment, Alexander, Brian.

Final thoughts, and we'll sign off. Well, all I want to say is just to thank Brian and Patrick for being so generous with their time today. This is always an honor and a pleasure. It's always an honor and a pleasure to be on the Duran. And I'm always glad to share the screen with Patrick. And Patrick, please be safe. And thank you again for the work you're doing.

All right. And with that, we will sign off. And one final question, comments, as current headlines, says the UK confirms its cruise missiles used in Sevastopol attack. Okay, take care, everybody. Bye.