The Duran Podcast - Cuba Crisis: Will Havana Choose BRICS or the United States?

Episode Date: March 31, 2026

Cuba Crisis: Will Havana Choose BRICS or the United States?

All right, Alexander, let's discuss the situation with Cuba and the Russian tankers entering Cuba, being allowed to enter Cuba without the United States trying to seize them. I believe it's one tanker that has entered, but I thought it was two. I was under the impression that there were two tankers on their way, but we have the confirmation that one made it. It was the all tanker. But what happened to the other one, or there was not another one? Right. Well, I think I can answer that question. But of course, you won't find the answer anywhere in the Western media, but it is there squirreled away in parts of the Russian media. So the other tanker, which is the seahorse, the tanker that arrived in Cuba and did so publicly, is Russian government owned tanker. It's actually the property of the government of Russia. And of course, it was carrying crude oil. The other tanker, which is the Seahorse, is actually registered in Hong Kong. Again, there's uncertainty.

It's just exactly who owns it. It's about quite a modern ship. And it was carrying some types of refined products of energy nature. Sometimes you hear it's gas. Other times it's diesel. It varies. Anyway, according to the Russian media, the Seahorse actually reached Cuba in early March.

and it was all done very covertly, and it unloaded its cargo in early March. And it engaged in quite a lot of maneuvering and spoofing. I don't for a moment believe that the US didn't know that it was there or where it was. I mean, the US knows where every ship in the sea must be, at least anyone that he wants to track. But anyway, that is what I heard, that the seahorse has already delivered its cargo. The other, I mean, I can't confirm that, but that's what the Russian media said. But I remember it was two ships. I also remember.

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. So this is the other ship with the crude oil. We've discussed it before. The Cubans need to refine it. It is only a month, only provides Cuba with the oil it needs for a month if it is used. you know, normally, the Cubans will, of course, eke it out and it would last longer.

But it is only a temporary solution to Cuba's problems. Now, we did a program about this about, was it a week ago, when we first heard about these two ships. And we debated this. And we said in that program that we thought that the United States would not in the end interfere with these tankers. There was a lot of speculation that the US would, but we thought that it wouldn't. We thought that at this particular time, with the conflict in Iran underway, with the disruption in the energy markets, that the United States would not be looking to do these things, this sort of thing. And besides, the US, unlike the Europeans, by the way, has been very, very wary of tangleing with Russian merchant ships on the high seas. for all sorts of very understandable reasons.

The Americans have a dialogue with the Russians, the Europeans don't. The Americans have a different perspective and approach to this based on their interests. So we thought that these tankers would get through. But the key thing to say is they got through. They're providing Cuba with a lifeline, which will continue for a few weeks, maybe a few months. it doesn't resolve the underlying issue. And it brings us back to what Cuba at this point is going to do. Because the one thing the Russians are not going to do is what they did in practical terms during the Cold War,

during the period of Soviet-Cuban, the heyday of Soviet-Cuban friendship in the 60s, 70s and early 80s. When the Soviets basically subsidized Cuba, gave Cuba oil for free, yeah, they did take sugar in return from Cuba. I mean, this is, you know, the famous deal, Cuban sugar for Russian oil. But the point which many people who talk about that don't realize is that the Soviet Union could produce its own sugar. It didn't need to import sugar from Cuba. It was essentially a deal done to provide a rationalization, a commercial rationalization for this oil trade, which didn't in fact exist. Today, Russia produces all its own sugar.

It doesn't need to import Cuban sugar. And Cuba doesn't anyway produce anywhere near as much sugar as it once did. So the Russians are not going to revert to the kind of economic relationship that existed previously. So the question is this. Firstly, what do the Cubans propose to do? The Russians and the Chinese, apparently, at various times, offered Cuba economic deals. Apparently the Chinese some years ago said, look, if you let us, we will electrify your economy. You are a tropical country.

You have sunlight most of the year round, unlike many other places. We can provide you with lots of solar panels, lots of batteries. We can electrify your economy. You won't be so dependent on oil as you used to be. The Cubans said no. And they instead preferred to invest in building up the Cuban tourist industry. So they didn't accept these Chinese offers of a. electrification. The Russians came along. They said, look, we're prepared to restart supplying you

with oil. You can't rely on Venezuela indefinitely. The government there is unstable. It's more likely than not going to fall sooner or later. You can't depend on the Venezuelans indefinitely. Their oil industry is in mess. Isn't a mess anyway. And we're prepared to provide supply with you with oil. we're prepared to do all sorts of other things. We'll modernize your railway system. We will give your metro in Havana, apparently. There was proposals to that effect made. We will rebuild your nuclear, we will complete work on the nuclear power station that we were building in Cuba in the 80s and which was never finished.

And again, the Cubans said no. because the Cubans were very happy with a relationship with Venezuela, and they didn't see any reason. They didn't feel under any pressure to change. And they were very heavily focused on developing their tourist industry, which depended very heavily on tourism from Western Europe and North America. and they were exporting, I say North America, I mean Canada, and they were exporting nickel, and it was enough to keep Cuba ticking along.

It wasn't providing a very high growth rate, but it meant that the Cubans didn't have to refashion their economy in the kind of lines that perhaps the Chinese and the Russians would have wanted, because, as I said, the Russians, the Chinese would not have wanted to do these deals for free. They would have wanted major changes to the Cuban economy. They would have wanted money back for their investments. Both the Russians and the Chinese said, you know, we'll use your country as the entry point for trade with Latin America. Cubans weren't interested in any of that. The Cubans instead happy with the situation as it was and also see. better relations with the United States, which in Obama's time for a time they seemed close to achieving.

Now, they've now had this pressure from the US. What do they do? Do they revisit the offers that the Chinese and the Russians are making? those offers come with enormous risks. Now, risks which they might not have done if they'd been looked at and accepted five, ten years ago. Firstly, the United States might be very, very much more antagonistic to Cuba accepting these offers now than it would have been if Cuba had accepted those offers five or ten years ago. Also, there are these people in Cuba,

who anyway don't seem to be very keen to have the Russians, especially the Russians, but also the Chinese coming back. If they're going to say no, if they're going to be worried about the American reaction, then I think they need to use the next few weeks of the oil, of the oil that the Russians have supplied to see what deal they can do with the Americans. And perhaps use the oil that the Russians have supplied to give themselves some economic space and leverage and see whether they can cut a better deal. I don't think a better deal than the one the Trump administration has already offered is there, just to say, but at least they can do. But they need to make that decision now. What decision are they going to make?

Well, I'm going to make a guess. I think they're going to go with the Americans. I think that they look at the geography. They will say, yes, the Russians have sent ships. We can't be sure, however, that the Americans will leave the ships to come all the time. For the moment, the Russians have shown that they can send ships. But I think beyond that, Cuba is a very different place today. More different than people, I think, understand from what it was in Fidel Kemp.

Castro's heyday. I mean, there's many private businesses. There's people heavily invested in the tourist industry that brings in money from North America, mostly, or much of it. I think that they will not want to sacrifice that. All of these groups will say, we've got to remain aligned with the West. This is our geography. And that means we've got to do a deal ultimately with the the United States and try to negotiate for the best that we can. I personally think that's what's going to happen. But what does that mean? Like, for a deal with the United States, with the United States means a new government,

a new system entirely? What does that mean exactly? Well, that is the question. I think some people in Havana will be saying to themselves, well, let's do this deal with the Americans. The Americans have shown that they're prepared to work with, Delci Rodriguez in Venezuela, which keeps at least the appearance of Chavismo going in Venezuela. Maybe we can negotiate something that keeps at least the appearance of Castroism surviving in Cuba with some of the things that Castro bequeathous, our education health system, still functioning as they were.

Personally, I'm going to say this. I think that is absolutely not going to happen. I don't think the Americans will agree to anything like that. I think that the US wants to see the entire Castro system in its entirety dismantled. But I can well imagine that there are people in Cuba, in Havana at the present time, people who have influence and who have traction, who will be saying, well, the US is the big power in our neighborhood. Miami is only a short distance away.

We've now got this all from the Russians. We can tell the Americans that we can do a deal with you. And if you don't do a deal with us, we will go back to the Russians. I think all that's going to do is it's going to provoke the Americans. I don't think it's going to make the Americans more amenable. But I think that's the line that they're going to try to take. How does that affect Russia and China? Well, I think it will.

I think the Russians and the Chinese will also be looking to see. I say at the moment, it's more the Russians than the Chinese, because yes, the Chinese are involved. I mean, they've been sending batteries and sonar panels to Cuba, apparently, by air quite extensively over the last few weeks. but the most visible steps have been taken by the Russians with these two ships. But the Russians will say, well, look, you know, if we're not giving oil for free, and we're certainly not going to go on giving oil for free to a country that ultimately is more interested in doing a deal with the US than it is with us. I mean, that's the practical reality.

So for the moment, the Russians have shown that they are prepared to help Cuba. I've been saying this for years, by the way. One of the things to understand is that there is still a lot of sentiment, sympathy, good feeling towards Cuba in Russia. But the Cubans should not expect that that will continue. indefinitely. The Russians are not going to just give away their oil in order to see Cuba align more with the US. All right. Difficult decisions for Cuba to make. Well, we'll see what they do. I don't think they've played their cards very well over the

last 10 years. We discussed this in our previous program. I think they disastrously over invested and let themselves get far too involved in. and over-dependent upon Venezuela. Venezuela, yeah. Just as saying. Yeah, exactly. All right. And the United States, they saw that.

Absolutely. Rubio, they saw that overinvestment. Absolutely. And they targeted it. Absolutely. By the way, to finish on this, I mean, doing a good deal with the Russians, and indeed the Chinese long term,

but a good deal with the Russians. And that, you know, that could be the, if you do that, it's going to be difficult, and it's going to be dangerous. and there are risks that it could provoke an American reaction. But if you do a deal with the Russians, if you stabilize your economy, if you start getting things functioning in Cuba again, if you get the sewage system working and the rubbish collected from the streets and you start getting Havana looking like it used to do,

then that doesn't mean that you can't, then you're in a stronger position at that point to start opening up to the Americans and doing long-term deals with them. And then you are in a stronger position. At the moment, these two cargoes, or one cargo, whichever it is, I do think it's actually put Cuba in a stronger position relative to the Americans, whatever the Cubans may think. if they establish over a period of a couple of years a stable relationship with the Russians especially, but with the Chinese too, then it's different.

Then you might be able to say, and you could do it also you could tell the Russians, well, you know, you don't want us to be constantly in a state of conflict with the Americans because if we are, then that's potentially a problem for you. But that doesn't mean we're going to curtail our relationship. relationship with you. But you know, you can perhaps see a long-term way forward to improving relations with the Americans as well. But it's going to be very difficult. It requires an awful lot of skill. I tend to think that skill exists in Havana now, just saying. All right. We'll end the video there. The durand.orgas.com. We're on X-Ran rumble. We're on

telegram. We are also on substack and go to Durand shop, pick up submerch. There's a link in the description box down below. Take care.