The Duran Podcast - Decisive battle for Pokrovsk

Episode Date: July 16, 2025

Decisive battle for Pokrovsk

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine and let's focus on the battle for Bakrowski. What is going on in this very important logistics hub in Dombas? Yeah, I think Bakrowski is not just a logistics hub. I think it is also, to some extent now, the big fortified position that the Ukrainians have, which the Russians, are determined to capture. This is shaping up to be the big battle, certainly in the first half of 2025. I mean, Bachmert was the big battle in 23. Avdeyevka was the big battle in 2024. Pachrovsk is the big battle now in 2025. And if Pachrovsk is captured by the Russians, perhaps I should correct that when Pachrovsk is captured.

captured by the Russians. A number of things will start to happen. Firstly, going back to what you said about logistics, it'll be much more difficult to keep the Ukrainians supplied with, to keep the Ukrainian supplied in Dombas, in other parts of Dombas, because Pachrovsk used to be, I mean, it obviously isn't any longer, but it used to be a major hub through which supplies were funneled to the Ukrainian grouping in Dombas, which is defending Slaviansk, Kramatosk and Konstantinovka. Now, the Ukrainians do have alternative supply routes that go through the north, through a town called EZium, which the Russians briefly controlled in 2022, and which they might potentially recapture later this year.

but if they lose Pachrosk, the Ukraine is loose Pachrosk, obviously the other big supply route is irretrievably lost. But that, in my opinion, is only one thing, because if the Russians control Pachrovsk, Bakrowski lies on top of a whole network of roads and railways. It's a bit like Bachmert in that respect. If the Russians capture it, they can advance in all sorts of things. different directions. They can advance westwards towards the NEPA, and they are already advancing towards the NEPA, though further south. Potentially also, they can advance northwards, in which case

they could outflank the Ukrainian positions defending Slaviansk, Kramatosk and Konstantinivka, and that would create a major operational crisis for the Ukrainians in Dombas, and I think that is probably the plan that the Russians have. Now, the Russians are closing the news around Pakrovsk. Over the last couple of days, the situation for the Ukrainians in Pakrovsk has deteriorated rapidly. The Russians are established to the south and west of Pakrovsk, but the major crisis is happened. east and north of Pakarovsk. The Russians are advancing closer and closer to the town. They're closing off the road and railway links into Pakarovsk itself. The Ukrainians themselves are saying that the situation for the grouping in Pakarovsk is becoming incredibly dangerous.

And there's talk that the Ukrainians may have to withdraw from Pakarovsk. if they withdraw from Pakrovsk, they may have to withdraw from the other towns that we were talking about, Slaviansk Kramatosk and Konstantinivka as well. And I was reading just before we made this program, another article in a Russian newspaper called Redovka, which says that the Ukrainians are now feverishly trying to create a new defense line to the west of the war. all of these places because they anticipate that Pakrovsky is indeed going to fall and that their entire military position in Dombas is about to crumble. Knowing the way Siersky commands is the most likely scenario going to be that he continues

to send troops into Pakrovsk to hold on to it as long as possible, instead of trying to just fall back and create a defensive line. In other words, a retreat, an orderly retreat, an organized retreat, and try to build defensive positions further back. The scenario from Siersky is going to be to just keep on feeding soldiers into Pakros to hold on as much as possible, right? As long as possible. That is exactly what Siersky is going to do.

And of course, that's what Zelensky, who appointed Siersky, Dithoutpost. That's what he wants Siersky to do. So this battle is not going to end quickly because the Ukrainians are going to continue feeding men and machines and supplies, which are now increasingly short supply, into Pachrosk. And the likelihood is that when Pachrosk falls, instead of conducting that elderly retreat from the Dombas to fortified positions west of Dombas, they will still nonetheless try for as long as they can to cling on to these towns. So that is by far the most likely outcome. But a major titanic battle is going to play out over the summer, and we're starting to see

all of the indications of this. And as I said, the epicenter of it is Pacharovsk. Meanwhile, the Russians do continue advancing in other places. They advance westwards, continue to advance westwards towards the Nipa, towards the city of Zaporosia, and also, by the way, from the south, and they're continuing to carve out what they call a buffer zone in northern Ukraine, in Sumi region, Kharkov and all of those places, which to me looks like creating the launch pad for the advance on Kiev, which presumably once Dombas has fallen and all of these other places have fallen is the next big advance that the Russians are going to do after that. And just to say, through a very complicated process that I'm not going to describe,

I've had messages being sent to me by a person who is a soldier in one of the Nationalist Brigades, battalions in Ukraine. And he's telling me that the word amongst them is that they must already start to prepare themselves psychologically for the battle of Kiev. That's the battle that they expect is going to come. Okay. Final question. The level of panic in the EU and the Trump White House when Pakarovs falls. He's going to be absolutely off the scale compared to what we saw last year when Uvdaevka fell. And there was, if you're a memory, a huge surge of panic then, with all sorts of decisions. Macron talking about sending troops to fight in Ukraine, the decision to authorize long-range missile strikes and all of that. The panic after the fall of Pakrosk is going to be of an entirely different order of magnitude.

It will only be exceeded when the Russians reach Kiev itself and the NEPA. All right, we will end the video there. The duran.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitch-shoe, telegram, Rockfin, and X, and go to the Durant Shop. Pick up some merch, free shipping, as well on all orders from the Durant Shop. There is a link in the description box down below. Take care.