The Duran Podcast - Dirty war continues. NATO wants escalation

Episode Date: February 8, 2026

Dirty war continues. NATO wants escalation

All right, Alexander, we have concluded the meetings in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, though Whitkoff and Kushner were not present at this round of talks. And it looks like the result of these meetings has been a prisoner exchange, which is positive. Whitkoff said as much in a post on X. but I'm struggling to find out what else was discussed or what other goals or objectives were achieved. On the negative side of things, we've talked about how Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, specifically Russia and the United States were engaged in some sort of security talks, and most likely those talks were focused on the dirty war that is being conducted

against Russia, specifically the attacks on military officials and, of course, the attacks on Valdei against Putin. We had another assassination attempt on a Russian general. So it looks like those security talks may not be working out so well for the Russian side. Anyway, how did you see these talks in Abu Dhabi? Well, I think you've summed it up extremely well, as far as I can see, They sit together, they sit in this room, they exchange ideas about all sorts of technical issues. They did negotiate a prisoner of war exchange. And by the way, on this issue, the Russians came out on top because, as is well known, the Russians hold many more prisoners than the Ukrainians do.

But interestingly, the number of prisoners swapped. The number was the same. So the Russians gave the same number about 150, and the Ukrainians gave 150. And the Ukrainians also released three Russian civilians that they took captive in Kusk region last year. So the Russians got something out of this. I don't see that the Ukrainians have got anything out of it at all. The Americans and the Russians had a conversation with each other. And when we say the Americans, this is General Grinkiewicz, who is the NATO Supreme Military

Commander and the Commander of U.S. forces in Europe. And he agreed with Kostakov, who is the Russian head diplomat, the chief representative of the Russians at these talks. They agreed that military-to-military contacts between Russia and the U.S., which Joe Biden stopped in February 2020, that those talks should resume. Now, that is a good thing, especially given the incredibly tense situation and the collapse of arms control, which we have recently discussed. But in terms of Ukrainian settlement, we're going nowhere. And you're absolutely correct, the Russians did indeed want, there's no doubt about this. The Russians did indeed want to discuss the dirty war with the Ukrainians. Whatever promise, you're going to. Whatever promulings

they got from the Ukrainians on this topic have achieved nothing, at least nothing so far. Because yesterday, the Ukrainians didn't just try to, I say it was the Ukrainians, I'm sure it was the Ukrainians, didn't just try to assassinate a Russian general. But the Russian general they tried to assassinate was General Kostukovs, number two. He is the deputy chief of Russian military intelligence, the GRU, which is, of course, the organization that cost you cough heads. So you could see what's going on. The Ukraine is very, very unhappy about the fact that they're talking to the Russians at all.

Zelensky's made it absolutely clear over the last two weeks that he really doesn't want negotiations or contacts with the Russians in any format. I mean, he's been trying to find ways to avoid. having this meeting. He initially said the meeting shouldn't happen because of the situation in the Middle East. Then he said the meeting shouldn't happen because the Russians supposedly broke the seven-day energy truce. Then he tried, as we now know, to get the Europeans, the Americans to agree that the Europeans should come along as well. And the Russians said absolutely not. And the Americans agreed with the Russians. And now we see that there's been

another attempt by the Ukrainians to basically sabotage the talks, by assassinating the chief subordinate, the chief lieutenant of Russia's chief negotiator, General Kostukov. And I mean, the Russians are going to be furious about this, whether what they're going to do about it, one doesn't know. But at the very least, the dirty war is going to escalate from this point onwards. Just so I understand what you're saying. This is incredible. Yeah.

But you know, Ukraine did it before, actually. Absolutely. They did it before. They did it in 2022 during the Istanbul talks. Yeah. But they got their own negotiator, I believe. Yeah. I'm trying to remember the story back then.

Didn't they assassinate their negotiator in 2022? They did. They absolutely did. They absolutely did. I don't remember the person's exactly. Either do I. But they did. He was one of their chief negotiators.

He was connected with Budanov's organization, Budanov's chief of military intelligence. He was then detained by the SBU, which is the rival intelligence agency. And they killed him. Yeah. And the incredible thing about this story is that it's never been, publicized or talked about in the West, even though eventually the SBU admitted that they'd done it.

And they claimed that the reason they did it was because they thought mistakenly that this man was a Russian agent. Whereas, in fact, he was one of Budaphnavs agents. Incredible things. But I mean, this is the kind of people that we're talking about. And of course, the West will never report it to it. The West never talks about this, just as they won't really make the connection with what just happened in Moscow early this morning. It really is, it really is a sign, as I said, of the sort of people we are talking about.

And again, it's not just the Russians, but the Americans continue incredibly to go along with this. They go to assassinate the number two of the person they're negotiating with. Yes. Yes. I mean, he was. Why does he didn't put up with this shit? Well, I know.

Honestly, I mean, I think there's a question that so many people are probably asking. Why does he put up with this stuff? Well, I know. It's incredible. It is incredible. You're negotiating with one guy. You're negotiating. Yes.

Supposedly in good faith with America as the Trump administration. as the neutral mediator in all of this looking for peace, as Trump always says, right? All the nonsense that Trump throws out there. Whatever. You're in Abu Dhabi. Wittkov is posting on X all of these good positive vibes. Yeah. President of Peace.

Nobel Peace Prize. He stopped 56 wars in one month. Yeah. Blah, blah, blah, whatever. And there you are negotiating with Russia in Abu Dhabi. and you go to assassinate the second command to the very person that you're sitting across a table from. Absolutely. No, I would say that there is something else because I'm going to make it.

Allegedly. No, no, I mean, we have to say allegedly. But the other thing to say about this is that it's entirely plausible that there are the usual rivalries. I want to say rivalries. I mean, that's a euphemism. the enormous tensions within Ukraine. Budanov, as we know, he's organization. He's former organization.

He's now Zelensky's chief of staff. At least he was present in the first set of talks. I'm not sure that he was in the talks yesterday. The SBU has been shut out. The SBU are probably very, very angry. Zelensky has just appointed a person Alexander Poclad, who has a very, very shady reputation in Ukraine. There's been many rumors about him being involved in all sorts of things.

Anyway, he's just been appointed deputy chief of the SPU, and it's widely assumed that he's in charge of its assassination side. And, well, it seems entirely plausible to me that this has been done by the SPU. Of course, Zelensky knows, I've no doubt at all that Zelensky himself is involved in this kind of thing. I mean, he's hardly made any secret of it. And as you absolutely say, again, lots of people, there's going to be many, many people in Moscow who say, why exactly are we sitting down and talking to these people? Why are we negotiating with them?

And if you remember, the foreign ministry, the Russian foreign ministry, which I get the sense is itself frustrated about this. They published this series of questions and answers and they wrote, they questioned themselves as they wrote the answer. We discussed it in a recent program and I discussed it further on one of my programs recently. They said, well, you know, given that we're dealing with a bunch of terrorists, why do we sit down and talk with them at all? So you get the sense that the foreign ministry isn't happy. I'm pretty sure that the military are not going to be happy. And again, there's going to be all the usual complaints and criticisms of Putin,

and they'll be asking him, what exactly are we doing? Why are we wasting time in Abu Dhabi? But anyway, the point is that the talks achieve nothing. The Russians did get some of their people released. the Russians did get three of their civilians released, and they did get military-to-military contacts with the Americans, which is something that they would have wanted, whether this is judged enough in Moscow to calm the real tension that will certainly exist after this incident is another question.

No, very big positives there. that you just listed, no doubt about it. But still, you know, Putin gets off the phone with Trump and drones are flying into his residency. Yeah, I mean, this is more as a pattern, right? It's going to say more than a pattern. It's a pattern, right? Yes. I mean, you know, it's clear what's happening.

But the meetings that are taking place between the OSCE arriving in Moscow, what do you make of those? Well, the Lavrov. Yeah, why know? Well, of course, he's he gave an into, he's made comments. He thinks the OSCE is on the brink of collapse. We've also had rumors that Macron wants to reopen dialogue with the Russians. Well, there are confirmed reports for Reuters that Macron did send an envoy to Moscow. Exactly, exactly.

But it's all very secret and private. Well, France is not denying it. No, no, France is not. The Russians are not denying it. I mean, it did happen. But again, we see the Europeans edging back. towards some kind of contacts and dialogues with the Russians. But I mean, there is no conviction behind this.

I mean, sending your national security advisor to Moscow trying to keep it secret, not making it public that you're going, and then sending the OSCE in a slightly more public way, suggests that there's still intense disagreements and arguments in Europe about it. this are no real conviction. I mean, Macron is taking the lead in trying to talk to the Russians, but notice that there's been no agreement so far within the European Union, that he has any authority to represent the EU states at all. Why does he just pick up the phone and call Putin? Well, exactly. I mean, he always makes himself out to be this big, big powerful leader of France,

leader of Europe, who's sovereign and can lead the continent and do as he wishes, why doesn't he pick up the phone and call Putin? Macron, or does he really need permission from the United States? That's why he doesn't do it. Well, I think partly it's that, and I'm sure you said to a great extent it's that, not just the United States, but for Mertz and the Germans as well. I mean, we discussed the very precarious financial situation that France is in. So, I mean, he's probably at some point going to worry about France needing help and support from the Germans.

So there's all these factors that are always there. But I think the other big reason why Macron probably doesn't want to talk to Putin is because at the moment, he worries that if he does pick up the phone and talk to Putin, he's going to hear from Putin exactly the same things that Putin has been saying to the Europeans basically since February 2022, which is that all the objectives of the special military operation must be achieved. He said that to Trump. He said that to Witgolf and Kushner.

His envoys have said this as well. The Russians say this at every time. And if Macron speaks to Putin and Putin says that, well, there will be people in Europe who will say, you're wasting your time. You're not able to persuade Putin to change his stance and Macron doesn't want to be in that position. Their goal is to make Putin change his stance to become what exactly, to agree to a ceasefire, to agree to capitulate, to agree to Kyakalus's terms of limiting their military power and limiting their military budget. I mean, it's all, it's all nonsense. It's stupidity is what they're saying. They want to, they want to, they want to

drag the war on. They want to drag the war out. But they're also trying to figure out a way to take advantage of Putin's patience and Putin's desire to resolve this in a diplomatic way, which is what Putin ultimately would prefer. Rather than a military solution, Putin would prefer a diplomatic solution. And the United States and the Europeans are trying to take advantage of of that. My own personal view is that the talks altogether are becoming a charade. The Ukrainians are not interested in them. They don't want talks. I mean, Zelensky and the people that control power in Kiev, they don't want talks at all. They don't want to be put in a position where there's any kind of deal because they know the deal would be on Russian terms. And if it was

on Russian terms, well, there would be a crisis in Kiev, and Zelensky's position would be at risk, not just politically, but in more, shall we say, physical ways. So they don't want a deal. They're not interested in a deal. The Europeans aren't interested in a deal either. They want to get in on the act because they don't like the fact that the Americans are talking. They wanted to be, they're talking to the Russians. They wanted to be present at the talks in Abu Dhabi. Zelensky tried to get them to be present at the talks in Abu Dhabi. The Russians said, no, the Americans went along with the Russians, so the Europeans are sending people to Moscow.

But they're not doing, and this is where you're absolutely right, the Europeans are not doing any rethinking about their own negotiating position. They're not looking at the situation on the ground or the situation in Ukraine. We saw that with Mark Guter's trip to Kiev a couple of days ago. He goes there, he sees a city in blackout, he sees a city where everybody's freezing, he goes to the power station, which is completely demolished and broken and smashed up, and he talks instead about Ukraine's resilience, its determination to keep fighting, and NATO's absolute support for Ukraine all the way.

So they're not interested. They're not going to Moscow with any purpose to present new ideas to the Russians, to conduct to seek a proper negotiation with the Russians. Again, they're going through the motions of pretending that there will be a negotiation. And perhaps they are hoping that, you know, they might be able to get Putin to change his mind. And Putin himself, for his own reasons, which, again, many people in Moscow find difficulty understanding too, strings everybody along by saying, yes, I'm open to talk, even as my chief negotiators, lieutenant deputy, is at risk of getting assassinated.

I'm prepared to talk. I'm not prepared to make any concessions, however, because my army anyway is advancing on the Ukrainian front lines. I'm pounding the cities in Ukraine to pieces. But, well, for reasons that are difficult again to understand, because he would have thought that by now Putin would know that Ukraine and the Europeans and indeed the Americans are not prepared to accept Istanbul Plus, he still goes through this motion of pretending to negotiate in the way he does. Yeah, I mean, well, why should he, yeah, why should he say that they're not prepared to accept Istanbul Plus?

Like you said, everyone knows they're not going to accept Istanbul Plus. Is Istanbul Plus even on the table anymore? Well, I wonder. I mean, I really do wonder, because we are now seeing the Russian armies advancing. People have got this all wrong, by the way. They say that, you know, there's been a reduction in this pace of the Russian advances in January. On the contrary, this has been the fastest moving military campaign that the Russians have conducted in winter since the start of the special military operation.

In Zaporosia, the Ukrainian front lines are collapsing. There were reports last night and this morning that Russian... You know, diversion and sabotage groups, DRJs, as they're called, reconnaissance groups, if you like, are using the fact that the Kharkovka Reservoir is drained of water and has hardened up because it's not icy, that they've actually used it to send small groups of reconnaissance people into the very center of the city of Zaporosia itself, Oreckhoff in Zaporosia,

seems to be on the process of being encircled. And the Russian army, well, over the last two or three days, they seem to have achieved some significant breakthrough in Konstantinovka, which is likely to fall, very soon. And Leman further north, also apparently there's been

the reports last night and this morning, suggested that there's a big breakthrough going on there. So, in fact, the military isn't slowing down at all significantly. I mean, you have ebbs and flows because the Russians have to move from one fortified position to the next. They captured a whole string of fortified positions in December. They're then used January and early February to move on to the next, but they're now very close to the next and there's storming parts of it already. And after Dombas, well, the ISW itself tells us

that there are no big, important, serious fortified lines left in Ukraine. So it's, people continue this charade of negotiations. I get the sense that in Europe and the US and perhaps in Ukraine, it's, they've lost complete contact with reality. They now seriously believe a lot of these fairy tales again. You remember the stalemate narrative. It existed in the summer of 2024. Then it had to be abandoned after the cause cooperation when that all collapsed. You remember, notice nobody ever talks about the collapse of the cause cooperation anymore.

Then they started talking about the stalemate situation again in the summer. of 2025, then it collapsed also in the autumn. Now they're resurrecting it again. They're telling themselves the Russian economy is on its last legs. We've heard this so many times, but they're repeating this to themselves. They're saying that the Russian army is almost exhausted. It's run out of men. It can't keep fighting. By the way, I have some information on this, not on the Russian side, but on the situation on the Ukrainian side, which is that a very, very close friend of mine who's Hungarian, but who lives in London, recently went back to Hungary, visited her niece, who is a executive in a chemical factory in Eastern Hungary, which is actually now Chinese and. And apparently lorries carrying chemical products have to cross into Ukrainian territory in order to reach other parts of the European Union because the roads are designed in that way. And they've had to stop doing that because what happened was that the Ukrainians were taking the drivers off the lorries and sending them off into the army.

We're talking about Hungarian citizens who are also, by the way, EU citizens. Yeah, Orban is upset about that, by the way, because another Hungarian died like that. Yeah, exactly. But I mean, they've had to stop because, and she was saying to me that, you know, everybody could see how desperate the real situation is. But in Europe, they don't want to listen to that. They don't want to hear that. When Dan Driscoll told them a few weeks ago that Ukraine is losing the war, they said this

was nauseating. Somebody called it obscene. So we're back into this game of pretending that the war is going well, that Ukraine is holding its own. And that, you know, there's all the time in the world because sometime this year Russia's going to fold. And Putin going on talking to them, engaging them in the negotiations. In some ways, I don't mean that he's doing this with this ability. But Putin carrying on with these negotiations, I suspect reinforces that view. They say to themselves, if he's talking to us, if he's talking to the Ukrainians, if he's

talking to the Americans, that must mean that Russia is in trouble. Yeah. No, I mean, I genuinely believe that Putin does want a diplomatic solution. I think he's probably one of the few people in the Kremlin now that still believes he can get a diplomatic solution. That's just my own opinion on it. I think most of the security council and most of the military at this point of time has given up on any kind of diplomatic solution with the West, including the United States.

The Europeans and much of the U.S., I believe, their game is to string Ukraine along. They're not even really stringing Russia along. No. They're mostly stringing Ukraine along with the help of Zelensky. so that they can get to 2027, 2028, because that's this date that they've come up with. Yes. This 2027 to 2030, let's say, they put this target date for when they're going to go to war with Russia. That's right.

And so I believe that their thinking is let's inflict as much damage on Russia as we can, what Lloyd Austin said back in the day. and let's get this thing to 20, 27, 28, 29, whatever. And then when Russia is exhausted and Ukraine, they don't care, whatever, Ukraine will be destroyed, gone. For them, that's not the point. For them, the point is to exhaust Russia. Yeah. And then they can launch their campaign against Russia.

And they also expect that by that point, the Democrats will be closer to winning back the White House. And I suspect that's also partly the calculation too. But I think you've got it exactly right. I think that's what the Europeans are thinking. They're thinking that the Russians are bleeding out. And so they want to keep the war going. And in a sense, Putin continuing to talk with them and to talk to the Americans and to talk to the Ukrainians, because of course that's what his negotiators are doing,

is reinforcing that. I entirely mistaken assumption. Again, this isn't perhaps the program to discuss the situation in the Russian economy. But I said a couple of days ago in a couple of programs that we did that we would probably start to get figures from Russia in February. They're starting to come out. And I noticed that the PMI numbers, for example, a rising services, shows expansion. and manufacturing is now at the tip of resuming expansion, according to the P&Mai numbers,

which I trust, by the way. Just to wrap up the video, the Europeans claim that they've got the 90 billion ready to go, or they've got the mechanism in place to distribute the 90 billion to Ukraine, of which two-thirds is going to go to military spending, just an FYI. Yes. And I believe Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic have opted out of this mechanism. Yes. The mechanism, and this is the thing people need to understand, the mechanism is about

how to spend the 90 billion euros. There's no clear explanation so far of how this 90 billion is going to be raised. The idea is the proposal that was agreed in December. and it's important to remind people we are now in February, so we already see this has taken two months. But the idea is to place bonds in the financial markets. But the problem with that, which we've identified in previous programs, is that the bonds are repaid based on a contingency, which will never happen.

the Russians paying reparations. And the kind of people who buy bonds, these kind of bonds, are probably going to be very, very unwilling, even if some of them can be strong-armed into buying them. Many of them, you know, Middle East buyers, people of that kind, probably won't want to touch these bonds. So at some point, there has to be another meeting. I expect there will be within the next few weeks. Probably it will be. won't get an awful lot of publicity, but you will see the European Council coming up with some kind of guarantee before the bonds are placed. That is the real mechanism that matters.

How they spend the money is really irrelevant because we know how the money is really going to be spent. It's going to go to Ukraine and it's going to go straight into various bank accounts in all sorts of interesting islands of the sort that exists around the world. Some of it may find its way to arms manufacturers, mostly in Europe, but in terms of the realities on the ground in Ukraine, it's not going to make any difference. All right. We will end the video there.

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