The Duran Podcast - Dirty war, second front and South Caucasus w/ Jeffrey Sachs (Live)

Episode Date: June 12, 2025

Dirty war, second front and South Caucasus w/ Jeffrey Sachs (Live)

We are live with Alexander Mercuris in London, and we have with us once again on the Duran, the one and only Jeffrey Sachs. Professor Sachs, how are you doing today? I'm doing well. Great to be with you guys. Great to have you with us, and we have a lot of news to get to. A big shout out and hello to everyone that is watching us on all the platforms. A thank you to our moderators in the chat as well. Alexander, Professor Sachs, what's in the news today? Well, lots is in the news, which is that it seems to me that we're seeing every part of the great foreign policy that has led us into this disastrous state that we are in in the world, unravel, in every single particular place in the Middle East, in Ukraine, and wherever.

And yet some people still seem not to get the message and see to be determined to persist with that foreign policy wherever they can. In Ukraine, it seems to me that we're balanced between policies of war and peace. Some people do seem to understand that we need to make peace, but nobody seems to have any idea how. In the Middle East, things are going from, I don't really see any sign of progress there at all, but perhaps Professor Sachs can tell us more. In Europe, the collapse of policy in Europe is terrible.

But we do find, Oasis of reason, both of us attended a conference in Georgia, myself in person. Professor Sacks did the keynote speech there, though it was done virtually, but it made a huge impact. I was in the room. And it was fascinating to see how this country has basically woken up out of a nightmare, which is what they all feel they were living through, and is trying to find its way back. And the way in which it is succeeding in doing so. So if perhaps we could just say a few quick things about that, Professor Sacks, we only have a short time.

But you spoke to the people there, and it made a big impact. And maybe we could just say a few things about this first. Well, absolutely. You know, Georgia, together with its two other neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan, are part of this great, game that has been going on for centuries, actually, between Britain and Russia and between the United States and Russia in the last 30 years. This is contested territory. These are borderlands. These are places where the United States has actively tried to intervene, specifically

in Georgia to expand NATO. So this is part of the plan that includes Ukraine to surround Russia in the Black Sea region with NATO. This is Brzynski's plan from the 1990s, rifting off of Lord Palmerston's plan in the 1850s. And Georgia became part of that game. And it has been a deadly game because it involved one hot war between Russia and Georgia in 2008 and the continuing very tense situation in recent years. So you have this region, the South Caucasus, these are the small countries, very historic. each, if you look at Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, with civilizations that go back thousands of years. Georgia, arguably 10,000 years of recognizable civilization, that have been contested zones, actually, between east and west, north, and south for thousands of years. They are countries, a region at the crossroads, at the crossroads.

the crossroads of East and West, at the crossroads of Christianity and Islam. Within the region itself, contested territory between three great imperial powers of the last 600 years of history, the Ottoman Turks, the Iranians, and the Russians. And so those three empires, even without the United States and Britain have been fighting among themselves and contesting this territory. But after 1991, and even during the Cold War, I would say, it was viewed as the soft underbelly of the Soviet Union or the soft underbelly of Russia and therefore a place where the CIA could meddle, a place where the American deep state could meddle, a place where American so-called non-governmental organizations, which are very much governmental organizations, part of the U.S. deep state,

could try to intervene and swing politics. And Georgia got caught completely in that because Georgia was one of the locations where the United States helped to arrange the overthrow of a government, the Rose Revolution of 2004, which overthrew Chevronazze, and installed a Western favorite, Sakashvili, backed by George Soros personally and backed by U.S. money personally. And he was the stooge, I would say, to promote the entry of NATO. and the EU into the region.

Now, one thing about the EU being there also, this region, if you ask a geographer, is not in Europe. These are countries south of the Great Caucasus Mountains. The crestline of the Caucasus mountains is the divide between Europe to the north, that's Russia, and Asia to the south. So these aren't even geographically part of Europe. But the European Union in this neocan US promoted age wanted to take territory as NATO expands. So they went side by side as in Ukraine as well.

And Sakashvili became the instrument for that. And in 2008 at this infamous NATO-Bukarest summit, which was the, I would say in a way a turning point when Europe fell completely into line with U.S. neoconservatism, that Georgia and Ukraine together at that NATO summit were invited into NATO. That was, I think, the turning point from cold to hot war that ensued. And in the case of Georgia, Sakashvili, I can tell you, I'll tell one anecdote, but he took this invitation to NATO as also the invitation to attack a breakaway territory and try to reclaim it for Georgia, thinking that NATO has his back and the United States has his back, and he lost a war with Russia in 2008. He ended up in many weird adventures

of politics throughout the region, including in Ukraine. and very bizarre guy. But in any event, this thrust Georgia into the front line of the Russia-U.S. confrontation. And it's been there until basically now the governing party, the Georgia Dream, which you will know more about and be more up-to-date than I am, having just visited, is trying to extricate Georgia from all. all of this great game because this great game is not conducive to peace, to security, or to economic development. It is a disaster. It is being used as a pawn of somebody else, and in this case,

a pawn of the United States. And I just wanted to tell you an anecdote. We discuss all the time how Ukraine became a pawn of the United States and has been devastated and bloodied and degraded and divided because of this neocan Palmerston idea of grabbing Ukraine for NATO and for the West and so forth. In 2008, as this was brewing, this NATO, enlargement. Sokashvili actually came to New York, came to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City in April or May 2008. And I was curious, so I thought I'd go over and listen to him. So I walked across Central Park and went to hear him speak. And it was incredible. We are part of Europe. We've always been part of Europe. We've always been part of Europe.

will be part of NATO. We will be part of the European Union. We are the most European country. And of course, all these fools, I have to say, in New York, in the audience, yeah, you're wonderful. We've got your back and so forth. And I remember, I walked out of the building and I called my wife because I was shaking. I said, this guy is so reckless. This guy is nuts. This guy is going to get his country destroyed. And it was just, I don't know, maybe two or four weeks later that the war broke out and that indeed, Saakashvili was smashed as a result. But I had that very personal presence of this insane arrogance that the United States gives

these countries. They think the U.S. has their back. Now we can do anything. We'll defeat Russia. We can put it in their face. And this is the mindset that has led us to disaster all over the region. But that's a very long-winded answer to your question. But the core of the issue is for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, they've been caught in a U.S. game from the 1990.

90s, partly to weaken Russia, partly to grab oil resources in the Caspian region, partly to build a Caspian Black Sea pipeline that would go around Russia. In other words, great game stuff with some of the big names of the neocon world involved from the start. Brzynski, always around Skokroft, Kisinger. amazing playing games in this region, thinking that this was part of the post-1991 process of further weakening or deconstructing or decolonizing Russia. And these three little wonderful, amazing, historic countries have gotten caught in the middle of it. And they're trying to extricate themselves from it.

And Europe continues to meddle nonstop. The U.S. has tried, but I don't think, I hope that Trump has no interest in this. So maybe they actually have a chance on their own for some economic development. Bottom line and final point, I should say. My recommendation to them is look at your map, look at your geography, look at your neighborhood. That's how you do economics to start. You have neighbors. your neighbors. You have investments with your neighbors. You have infrastructure with your neighbors.

The three neighbors are three big powers, Russia, Turkey, and Iran, three historic civilizations. They actually are getting along reasonably well right now, thank you. And that gives a chance for the three South Caucasus countries, which really have a a shared destiny as well to say, look, we can be prosperous within this region by having decent relations with all three sides. The United States is not our issue. The EU is not our issue, but Russia, Iran, Turkey, the Middle East, a north-south trade and infrastructure corridor, an east-west trade corridor, that's our future. And we can be prosperous, service centers, touristic centers, communication, and digital hubs. We can have a very nice future if it's peaceful in our region.

I would just very quickly say that the overwhelming impression that I got whilst I was there in Georgia is that they do not want to be contested territory anymore. They've had enough of that. want to be themselves, their old countries, old civilizations. They want to forge their own destiny. And that, it seemed to me, is the overwhelming feeling within Georgian society. Anyway, since we've only got you for a short time because we talk about South Caucasus a lot. But let's move on to something else, something very close to home for me. There's been an absolutely terrifying article by David Ignatius in, I think it was the New York Times.

and it was the Washington Post. That's where he writes about dirty wars and all kinds of things. The Russians, and I am absolutely sure they're completely correct about this, are saying that it's the British who are egging the Ukrainians to conduct these dirty wars. Dirty wars, to be quite clear, is about assassination, sabotage, acts of terrorism, all of those kinds of things across Russia. and Russian territory. What are we, and by

we, I mean Britain, but also the United States, thinking that we are doing by getting involved in something like this. Have we gone out of our minds? That is what I wanted to ask, because it seems to me

we should be seeking peace, and instead, some people seem to be keen on getting us involved in thinking, in things like this. over to you. Yeah, no, it's a terrifying article, by the way. I agree with you.

And we should put it in proper context. David Ignatius is the mouthpiece, almost the formal mouthpiece, I would say, but not quite, of the CIA. So he is the writer on the Washington Post who conveys the CIA news. He writes from the CIA perspective. He describes what the CIA is thinking. He does not do that critically, scratching his head saying what's going on. He does it straightforwardly as if this is matter-of-fact news. So he's interesting to read, not in his analysis, but as a faithful reporter of the Central Intelligence Agency and the intelligence community generally.

So when you read him, you're hearing something from intelligence officials pretty directly. The article was shocking in how stupid it is if you take it on its face, by the way, aside from being frightening. First, it says that there were no negotiations because Russia put down an ultimatum for complete capitulation of Ukraine. And then it says, what is capitulation? Capitulation is neutrality. Capitulation, I don't even remember a couple of the other things, but it had nothing to do with capitulation. Capitulation is surrender. But the way that it was written straightforwardly was capitulation means you don't become neutral. He didn't use the word NATO. That was an other interesting point. But it had nothing. It showed completely propagandistically.

Russia's negotiating stance is not the capitulation of Ukraine. Russia's negotiating stance is neutrality of Ukraine, security arrangements that are mutually secure for Russia and Ukraine, and territorial requirements on the Russian side that are contestable, by the way, in negotiations, at least to some extent. Some are not contestable, I'm sure. But that is not capitulation. But Ignatius used the idea that this is not negotiation. This is the ultimate capitulation. And that's already the CIA propaganda to say there's nothing to talk about. There's nothing there. we think maybe, I think so, that Donald Trump knows better than that. I think that he understands that not joining NATO for Ukraine is not capitulation,

it's sanity for Russia, for the United States, and for Ukraine. Neutrality is exactly what's needed. But then the next paragraph of that article, after December, disposing of Russia's demands for capitulation, said Ukraine will never give up its right to join the Euro-Atlantic community. Again, propaganda, NATO isn't mentioned in the article. NATO is different anyway from the EU. Russia has always taken a different view of joining NATO from joining the European Union. It's been the game of the neocons and the game of Washington and the game of the CIA and

MI6 to conflate the two completely. The UK should know better. It's actually part of NATO, but it is not part of the EU. So the two in principle are different, but not in the minds of the hardcore West. But then, yes, the idea was we fight on. And it was saying that we are going to fight in every way, dirty wars, war on the battlefield, and so forth. And it was kind of a declaration of ongoing war. We will outlast the Trump administration.

We will outlast Donald Trump. We will outlast these negotiations. We will fight on. So has Britain gone mad? I don't want to be impolite, but Britain's been mad for a long time. It hasn't gone mad. This is a British attitude towards Russia that dates back to 1840. Britain has been at war essentially with Russia since the 1840s.

It went to a hot war on pretextual grounds, we would say, as if David Ignatius wrote such an article in 1853. The whole Crimean war was a concoction because Russia was complaining about the Ottoman Empire giving in to French demands. it made a minor provocative move of troops into Wallachia. The British stood up and said, you can't do that, got the French and Napoleon the third alongside. The Russian said, okay, okay, okay, we leave. And then the British said, you can't leave, we attack you. And so the British were so keen on war that they

of course, besieged Sevastopol with the idea of getting Russia out of the Black Sea. In other words, dismantling the Russian naval fleet, which actually occurred in the Treaty of Paris in 1856. This is Brzynski's plan from 1997. Same idea. Same geography. We're going to get Russia out of the Black Sea, making it a third Russian. great power. It won't have a Navy that can enter the eastern Mediterranean. Russia will be banished from involvement in the Middle East and so forth. So the war today is the same war.

Now, MI6 and the CIA have been part of this from the start. And I would say, if we really look at when the start is, the start, you could date it to 1853. You could date it to the British expeditionary forces in Russia after World War I. And you can certainly date it to even the weeks after World War II, when the Soviet Union had been the lead country and the main ally that had smashed the German war. Immediately, Churchill turned to his war cabinet and his military advisors said, well, can we go to war with the Soviet Union now? This was already in the summer of 1945 because the idea took hold almost immediately in the UK and U.S. security circles.

This is OSS. days, even before the CIA was established. But in the high command, well, our next war will be with the Soviet Union. They were the allies that just lost 27 million people. But immediately, and I'm talking about June, July, 1945, starting to think about the next war with the Soviet Union. What's amazing to me is how the end of the Soviet Union also didn't change this almost at all. We now go on to Russia. So it was without missing a beat that the end of the Soviet Union,

the pretext of Bolshevism and communism as being the great threat. When that was gone, that also didn't change the idea of MI6 and the CIA. Now we need to dismantle Russia. And lest anyone think I'm kidding, read Brzynski's Grand Chessboard of 1997, where he opines in his high-minded way that maybe Russia will divide into three countries, a European Russia, a Siberian Russia, and East Asian Russia, that could be in a loose confederation. This is the hubris of the U.S. and the U.K. for decades.

And I'm afraid, I'm actually even more afraid of MI6, I have to say, not in its power, but in its recklessness. I mean, you look at Starmer. Sorry, I will say it. The guy's an idiot. But he's a, all he is is a mouthpiece of this deep state. And it's dangerous. And I found the attacks, you've been discussing them brilliantly for every day since they happen. But the attacks on the strategic bombers, which is clearly an MIT. six operation. And probably the CIA was pretty heavily involved in it also. And certainly if they didn't know about it, the whole place needs cleaning out because if you

can't figure that out in 18 months, it is pathetic beyond belief. But the recklessness of going after the strategic triad of Russia, whether successful, not successful, the whole idea of it is just an invitation. to nuclear war like nothing else. And there is the MI6 in its provocations. And our Western press stood up and cheered how clever this is, and Ignatius cheered how clever this is, as we take a step towards doom at the hands of these fools.

The fools on our side I'm talking about. Absolutely. Can I just say one of the strange things about the British obsession is that it never in the end works. We just try all of these things and it fails. I mean, I'm not going to discuss the Crimean War, just to say that it didn't turn out at all well for Britain. Absolutely.

And it produced the greatest anti-war speech that Britain has ever heard in the House of Commons. John Bright, who said, you know, the angel of death is abroad and come amongst us. One can all but hear the beating of his, wings. And all of that and nobody ever learns. But anyway, moving on, there is summer tempo from the United States to sort of reach out. We've had apparently a productive call between Rubio and Lavrov. Trump and Putin seem to be able to speak. There's been also with the other great power, China,

there's been another conversation between Xi Jinping and Trump. However disorganized and chaotic this administration is and it is. Nonetheless, they do seem to be trying some level of diplomacy. Can we look at any hope there? I mean, is this going to achieve anything? Because we're not getting anything from Europe that's productive in any way. Britain, obviously, is a loss course. What are your feelings about?

what's going on in the United States about this? It is fascinating. Trump is trying to stop the war in Ukraine. He's got the right basic instinct, which is Putin's got a point. NATO should not be there. This is, this was Obama's war. This is Biden's war.

I don't want to, I don't want this. The United States doesn't need this and so forth. All of that. is in the right direction. It's fascinating how the American political class cannot get its head around this by and large. And so the administration is getting attacked by, well, Mitch McConnell going after the defense secretary in Congress that we must never allow Putin to win. and all of the neocon tropes, Lindsay Graham and so forth, the same way, Richard Blumenthal. Absolutely awful.

People have been wrong on every part of American foreign policy for three decades. So the battle in Washington continues. I would say after this extraordinary Ukraine attack, on the strategic bombers, Trump put them in their place and said, stop, at least temporarily. And you heard voices like General Kellogg, who, you know, is kind of on the borderline between the two sides, say, don't do this. This was reckless. This was dangerous. I think this was a very sobering episode, a very embarrassing episode, because whether Trump knew or didn't know, it's embarrassing.

It's, in fact, destabilizing and threatening. So for the moment, the recklessness of Ukraine has given Trump more political space. but the relentlessness of the American neocon political establishment combined with Starmer, Mertz, Macron, Tusc, almost every day up until that bombing, meeting with Zelensky, and now interestingly keeping a distance from Zelensky for the moment. But all of that has meant that we are in between war. and peace. My own view is the President of the United States has the power to end this war, but it requires political capital. He has to have an organized team that says, we stop. We do not provide armaments and we do not provide intelligence to Ukraine because we will not be a party to this ongoing war. And to explain that to the Europeans as well, which is if you fight on, we can't stop you, but it would be ill-advised because you really can't do anything without us,

and you know it. And to Mr. Zelensky, I would just explain the facts of life, which he did not have to hear from Biden for one single moment for four years. So to my mind, Trump has the power to make peace and to end this conflict. This is mainly between the U.S. and Russia. If Zelensky as a martial law little clique, see does not want to do that. I think the real negotiations anyway are between the United States and Russia, that the United States says NATO will not expand. We settle our other mutual security issues because we are the two largest superpowers in the world, and we were slipping towards nuclear war.

We have a completely irresponsible regime in Ukraine that is provoking more, and we need to stop. And as I'm talking, I'm thinking it to myself, an analogy of this that's interesting, by the way, in the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, Two. One of the things that ended the crisis was a call by Fidel Castro to Khrushchev to launch a nuclear war. And Khrushchev was so profoundly taken aback. He was shocked at the recklessness of his supposed ally that he immediately said, said, we got to bring this to a close. Cuba is out of control. And it was then, actually, that the message was sent to Kennedy, look, we can close this crisis down. We will take back the missiles. You will sooner rather than later remove your short-range missiles from Turkey. You will pledge never to invade Cuba again and will be done with this crisis.

But it was the recklessness, actually, of the Cuban government that provoked the two powers to say, this can't go on this way. In a way, Zelensky has done the same thing. The guy's nuts. The guy is a, he's not a one-man rule. He's a little clique, a little regime that does not represent the interests of the 20-year-olds that they're dragging off the streets and putting in vans and sending to their deaths in the front lines. And by the way, I got a long, really sad email from a stranger who said, I'm 48 years old and they are sending me to my death in Ukraine. Thank you for calling for peace, but it was a long, long email from a stranger. in Ukraine. Yes, Zelensky does not represent the interests of the Ukrainian people, period. If he wanted to test that, have an election. But short of that, all he's doing is sending people

to their deaths right now rather than negotiating. But my point is that the recklessness of this attack on strategic bombers is a kind of wake-up call. And it should be used by Russia and the United States to say, we've got to bring this to a close. And then the CIA is partly a government onto itself. It needs to be brought under control. It has not had any public airing of what it does for 50 years. It's literally exactly 50 years this year when the Church Committee,

for the first and the only time in American history had a public vetting of the CIA's role. I doubt MI6 has ever had such a thing, but I stand to be corrected on that. But the CIA was looked at one time and one time only, and that was 1975 by Idaho Senator Frank Church. And we desperately need it again today. Well, to answer quickly your question, the MI6 has not. never had a public accounting until fairly recently the British authorities pretended it didn't even exist officially. There you go. It was so there you go. Professor Sacks, I'm going to finish there. Next time we have you, we do need to talk about the Middle East and Iran and perhaps we

will do that soon. And by the way, it just I wanted to say so that we're not out of date in a terrifying five minutes. Whether the news is part of a game in the last hours or something real, whether Trump is trying to show the Iranians, they better negotiate or I'm going to unleash the Israelis on them or not. We will not know. And we will never know until the events, who gets the message and who doesn't and who abuses the message. But we are on the precipice. And everything we just said about Ukraine would be, would be completely passe if Israel goes to bomb Iran because then we really have stepped into a world war. I agree. I completely agree. I know you're under time pressure, so we will stop here, but we will definitely come back, hopefully fairly soon, because we do need to discuss this thing.

So if you have a moment, I'll just pass over to Alice and maybe on my side of business. Zachs, I know you've got maybe like a minute or two, but one quick question from Josie. What advice would you give to ordinary people, those of us who are not politicians or involved in decision making, especially here in Europe? How can we contribute to meaningful and positive change? Yeah, wherever you are and in whichever ways you can, tell your politicians to stop the war mongering, to pick up the phone. and I offer them my Zoom account also, call your Russian counterpart and talk peace. This is what is needed.

There isn't an inkling of it among any of the major European powers right now, but this is the most urgent point. The Europeans need to talk with their Russian counterparts. Thank you, Professor Sachs. Professor Sacks, as always, thank you hugely for so much on our program. Of course. Great to be with you guys and we'll talk soon. We'll talk soon.

We'll talk to. Take care. Bye-bye. Alexander, you with me? Absolutely. Yeah. I'm with you. Absolutely.

Cool. Let's answer the questions. Great, great show. Great show. Absolutely. Always great to have Professor Sacks with us. Let's get to some questions for the day. Troubling, troubling news all around, huh?

Oh, boy. The use of Iran, the use of Iran is very disturbing, very, very troubling. And this is the David Ignatius article, which is MI6 fingerprints all over in two, by the way, as well as CIA once. I have been very, very troubled by it, to put it mildly. Anyway, let's press it. You know, yeah, Newland, Newland hinted at this a long time ago about last year, a year and a half when she said that we're going to, that Ukraine's going to, that Ukraine's going to go this route. Absolutely.

Yeah. All right. From Elsa, let's see here. One sec. Don't the Europeans see the irony. They're afraid to have to learn Russian, but are all speaking English. By the way, the Russians would not only teach the language, but math in history, too. Shocking.

Sure enough. Why is it such a bad thing to learn Russian? Would it not be a good thing if some of our leaders, actually spoke Russian. Merkel spoke Russian, by the way, but maybe best forgotten. But perhaps the most successful European leader of the last 200 years was Bismarck, and he spoke fluent Russian, and he knew the Russians well, and he liked them and got on with them, and he succeeded in everything he did. Would it not be a good idea just to get to know a little bit more about this country that we're spending all our time, waiting war against? Just saying.

I would say it would be a good idea for the Europeans to learn math and history. Also, absolutely true. Nikos says, has Jeffrey Sachs talked to Turkey about the Cyprus problem? Also, his thoughts on the Kurds and Turks in Syria agreeing to be part of the new country. I think you can answer this question, Alexander. Well, I can know about the last, about the Kurds and all of those people. I've just been reading reports about the incredible amount of violence that is taking place in Syria. I don't think this has any future at all.

I think sooner or later we're going to see resistance start to develop in Kurdistan again. I suspect that some kind of a deal has been done, both within Syria, but most specifically between Erdogan and Iran at the moment, because the Iranians need to have some kind of relationship with Turkey because they're in, well, they're looking at a potential war. But I suspect all of this is going to break down. And I've seen that, was it, 8,000 people killed in extrajudicial executions in Syria since the start of the year, something of that kind? That is the reality of Syria today.

Now, about Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, I am not sure what Professor Saks' views are. I think we've discussed it often in our own programs. We will no doubt discuss this with Professor Sacks next time this meeting. Yeah, I've spoken to people from Syria now living in Cyprus. They've approached me on many occasions, Alexander. And they've told me that the situation in Syria is horrible. It's horrific. And the media is not reporting on it.

No, no, exactly. Yeah, this government, whatever you want to call them, this Al-Jolani government is horrible, a horrific, terrifying government. Yes. And now they're trying to make their way to Cyprus. They're trying to get out all of them, yeah. Yes. All right. Matthew says, what are the likely retaliatory measures that Russia could take against the UK?

Well, I don't want to discuss that in too much detail because the UK's, my own country. So I don't want to start giving a list of targets against my own country. I think that what we are going to start to find ourselves catapulted into is a covert war. A war carried out behind the scenes in which, let's be absolutely clear about it, we will be overwhelmingly outmatched. So why we are bringing this upon ourselves, I can, cannot even begin to think. And I happen to know that the Russians are already starting to take some moves. I've had some conversations with some people in Britain, which I don't feel able to talk about, because they were very, very confidential. But they're finding that their contacts

with their longstanding Russian contacts are being closed down, just to say. And other things are happening a lot as well, like, you know, attacks on British visa centres in Kiev. But we're going to see an awful lot more of this. And when the Russians finally do this kind of thing, as they showed during the wars in the Caucasus back in the 2000s, they do it with far more thoroughness and with far more resources than we in Britain can ever bring to bear against them. So this is an extremely bad thing. even going to discuss the moral implications of this, which are terrible.

James Howell 9,000 says thank you for the regular updates and great guests, lads. Thank you, James, for that. Christian says Romanian people want peace. Yes. So they should and so they do. Yep. Zishan, thank for that super sticker. Christian, thank you for that super sticker.

Gorbachev's forehead says, Jeffrey, didn't you champion USAID efforts in Ukraine? No. It's not true. He was asked to go there by the Russian government in order to give advice on how to stabilize the monetary system. I remember this. I mean, there was so much mythology and distortion about this story. But anyway, one day, maybe we'll ask Professor Sachs himself to set it out. But I remember it all. I was following it all very, very, very. very closely. The trouble is he's constantly confused and conflated with all sorts of other people

who are doing completely different things. Iranian kiddo says, Azeri annexation of southern Armenia militarily is a direct threat to Iran as well. That's not Karabakh anymore. It's a legitimate Armenian proper. It would cut off Iran's border with Armenia and lead to NATOization of the Caspian. Well, can I just say, I completely agree with it would be in a disastrous thing. I don't believe, by the way, that Azerbaijan has any interest in joining NATO. And I think that is quite clear. On the contrary, they're doing everything they can at the moment to get into the good graces of the Russians and the Chinese. But about Azerbaijan, potentially,

taking steps against Armenia, I am completely in agreement with you. And I think it is the disaster for Armenia. And who brought it on themselves? The Armenians did by opening themselves up to the same kind of strategies that Georgia opened itself up to in the time of Sakashvili. Now, the Georgians have seen through this now, very belatedly, and eventually, but they've got there, and they now understand that very well. And I just don't mean just the political elite in Georgia.

I mean, ordinary people in Georgia understand this. It's a sophisticated country. I think people in Armenia need to start thinking in this way also, that the people who are telling them that they are their friends are not their friends. they are there to play them. Jamila says those big dogs want to bite everyone

or come down. Well, why would they want, I, you know, objectively, I agree. But let's be, let's just say this. I mean, there is another way. We don't have to go on playing these absurd games

in the West. We could just sit there and make peace and trade and build up our economies and improve our situation. I've just been looking at the economic data in Britain. We are clearly in recession. The first figures to date confirm as much. So why are we wasting our time and our political and moral capital and drawing ourselves into a conflict in Russia? Well, we have so many things to do closer here at home. That's all I'd say about this. Iranian kiddo says no one could do much about Karabakh's humanitarian crisis since it was recognized worldwide as Azeri territory.

This way of drawing the map was Stalin's dirty trick to lock those countries in a forever sectarian war. Well, there's an enormously complicated story here, which I'm not going to get into. This all explained to me an enormous detail by all kinds of people who have actually very different views about how Karabakh ended up being part of Azerbaijan. The point is, the Armenians were in control of Karabakh just a few years ago, and they lost control of Karabakh, which is an Armenian populated region because of disastrous policies pursued by the government in Yerevan. I'm sorry to say this as clearly as that, but it was Parishinian's whole cascade of mistakes that led to that disaster. And it is opening the way to further disasters to come unless the policy changes.

Matthew says, are we heading to regional war in the Middle East? I have to say, I'm afraid so. I mean, all of these reports that we're seeing all the time about Israel cranking up to attack Iran. I mean, why is there no straightforward statement from the United States saying this is absolutely. unacceptable. The United States will not be drawn by another country into a war with the third country. And this must end and end now. There's nothing like that. And of course, you have all of the usual people in the United States who are incredibly keen to have this war happen and are egging it on, anxious to lead the United States into this war. And the MAGA movement

absolutely doesn't want it. The President of the United States, I get the sense, clearly doesn't want it, and yet we still need to be pulled in that direction. Such an avoidable war. Iran says it doesn't want nuclear weapons.

Everyone is in agreement, yeah. It is an agreement. So what are we going to fight about? Iranian Kido says not only Armenia, but today there are a bunch of enclaves scattered inside Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, like islands, which lead to border skirmishes from time to time for some for the same reasons.

Yes, absolutely. But for the moment at least, the situation there is comparatively stable, because all of these countries are relatively determined to keep on good terms with each other. and both China and Russia are trying to maintain stability in that region too. And none of the governments of these countries are lending themselves to the kind of complicated policies that Armenia and previously Georgia did. Now, if it can remain like that, then hopefully we will avoid these conflicts. But for the moment, the situation continues to be comparatively stable. and Central Asia, I've never been there, but Central Asia apparently is experiencing collectively quite rapid economic growth. Empire We Are says power breeds the loss of empathy, absolute power breeds contempt.

I would bet a few dollars that one can once again hear echoes of undermensch in Brussels and the Amalek in Jerusalem. I'm sure that's true, yeah. Iranian Kido says Persian speaking cities of Samarkand and Bukhara were included in Uzbekistan instead of Tajikistan. So there's that, L.O.L. Well, I'm going to say so this. I think that perhaps you overestimate the degree to which someone, you know, the Russians who did, as you correctly say, draw all these lines fully understood these sort of things. But you're absolutely correct. Samarkand and Bukhara were personally.

Persian-speaking cities. And to some extent, apparently, continue to be so. I'm not going to enter into a long discussion about the internal politics of the region, because I don't know it very well. And I'm likely to say things that are simply wrong and untrue. But to repeat, to reiterate again, for the moment, it is stable. And let us hope it remains so. And it is in good relations with the Russians and the Chinese who seem to be working together to keep it stable. Ronald Scones, thank you for that super sticker. Nico says, for Georgia, there is a chance to reunify with South Ossetia because their new president doesn't support union with Russia.

Abkhazia is the main problem with instability and radicals causing problems. I don't think that it is as easy and as straightforward as that, but I did get the enormous strong impression in Georgia. Georgia, that the Georgian government and even more importantly, wider Georgian society desires peace. There is a wariness about Russia, which is there, but no very, very overt hostility. Certainly it is not like the Baltic states. And I think that is important to say. And I get the sense that the Georgians and the Russians are gradually feeling their way back towards each other,

though nobody yet has any clear idea of what kind of solution there would be to this particular problem, this terrible legacy that Sikashvili and the Americans have left behind. John McCain. No. John McCain, exactly. Iranian kiddo says Iran's nuclear facilities are beneath the mountains, simply nothing that can be done about it. It's impossible to sustain an air campaign against Iran all the way from the economy. Garcia or Israel. They know it. Iran knows it.

Well, do they know it, though? Or do they want to hear about it? I don't know. Look, I'm not going to discuss the military realities of this. What you are saying, I have heard many, many people say. I even read an account just over the last few days about an inspector who said that he, in order to reach the facilities under the mountains, He had to go deep, deep, deep down. And he described what an enormously complicated process it was. I think it was Grossi himself, the head of the IAEA. But I'm not sure that a attack on Iran is actually about destroying those facilities.

It seems to me that an attack on Iran is about regime change. So it may be that the targets will not be the facilities at all. they could be directed at killing Iranian leaders, disrupting the political system there, provoking a political crisis in Iran. Yeah, I completely agree. No one's saying this. No one is saying this, Alexei. This has nothing to do with Iran's nuclear program, which they don't even – anyway, it's about regime change.

It's all about regime change. That's it. Yeah. Anon Kalerisian, thank you for that super sticker. Commander Crossfire says, starting to look. a little illogical at this point Taliban Vietnam refused to talk to puppets

Russia started to look a little illogical at this point Russia is playing dumb and blind while hitting their own their own Ukraine loves Russia. I'm not sure I understand that at all I mean Russia's starting to look a little

illogical at this point Taliban Vietnam refused to talk to puppets Russia is playing dumb and blind while hitting their own NATO, hitting their own Ukraine, Russia. I don't understand. Russia has excellent relations with Vietnam.

By the way, when I was in Russia, I could see examples. Lots of people there. And as for Russia, having developed some kind of relationship with the Taliban, it is true. In fact, it's interesting how rapidly, how quick, how anxious the Taliban was to develop a strong relationship with Russia. But anyway, maybe come on to crossfire. You could explain that in a bit more detail because I don't quite follow what you mean.

Vincent Clark says debate Jeffrey Sachs and Robert Barnes on China. Well, it would be a very interesting thing to do, actually. Iranian kiddo says Turkey needs Iran more. billions of dollars are invested every year in Turkey by Iranians buying properties. They're there as well as tourism. Plus they know if Iran is down, Israel coming for them next. Interesting. Thank you for that.

Sparky says, if tourist missiles need U.S. military targeting data, can't Ukraine bypass the Pentagon and get it via Israel since Israel has carte blanche within the U.S. military? Well, there's an awful lot of talk about this kind of thing, and who knows? I don't know the details of this, but what I will say is, if the tourist missiles are used, the Russians will blame the Germans, obviously, but they will also blame the Americans too. Empire We Are says U.S. policy is the same harm Russia via proxies, destabilize bordering states, continue sanctions, chip away Russia-China relations, destabilize the Russian government, is equal to a strategic defeat of Russia.

Yes, and I've just been to Russia. and I found the situation they're extremely stable. I found St. Petersburg significantly richer than when I last saw it. I attended a conference with lawyers, people from civil society, by the way, not military people, not security people, not foreign policy people, but people, some of whom had run law firms, could have close relationships with Western law firms. I found a massive consolidation of those kind of people supporting the Russian government in what it was doing. I mean, the strategy, the policy is achieving exactly the opposite of what it's supposed to be doing.

Russia is now producing more weapons in a year. In three months, the whole collective West could produce in a year. Its economy is growing. its inflation rate, by the way, is now falling. So, I mean, how is this working? Just to say, I mean, surely the point has got to come when people start to say to themselves, this is not succeeding.

So let's stop and think of something else, like making peace with them. Commander Crossfire's question was, someone is saying that he meant that Vietnam was not playing games with the American puppets, in their country only for a total win, and that Russia is playing games while Vietnam was not. Oh, no, no, no, no, again, this is, this is the, if you follow, which I have done, I used to, I read all about this immense, and I followed it in time, if you went through the whole history

of the Paris negotiations, they were incredibly complicated, and the North Vietnamese did seek negotiations with the South Vietnamese. And there was all sorts of arguments about, you know, lay out of tables and things of this kind. It was an enormously complex diplomatic process. Very, very similar in many respects to the one that we see with the Russians and are conducting in Istanbul now. Because of the fall of Saigon, we imagine, you know,

that this is the Vietnamese fighting relentlessly all the way through. and refusing to negotiate with anybody. It wasn't that way at all. In fact, it was the North Vietnamese who first proposed negotiations, which the Americans were rejecting, just as, and the South Vietnamese were rejecting. So no, it wasn't like that.

Now, as I said, we know what the outcome was, and the one thing that the North Vietnamese consistently refused was a ceasefire until there was a derives the definite commitment by the United States to remove its forces from South Vietnam. And again, you see the parallel. The Russians are refusing to withdraw their forces to a ceasefire until the American cease or military and intelligence age to Ukraine. So they're actually striking parallels. The Taliban thing is different. And again, the Afghan government was supposed to participate

in the Doha negotiations, but it never really did. Iranian Kido says it's very hard to kick the Turks out once they get their foot in the door. Turkey is an expansionist revisionist state, not only 40,000 troops in Cyprus, but also occupying northern Iraq with 136 bases. There is a lot of truth in what you say. And at the same time, Turkey itself remains unstable, which it is, by the way, economically, in many respects. The political situation, I don't know how stable that.

is either. So other things to be concerned about, and I'm not far from convinced, but I'm absolutely definite that this is not a good policy in the end for Turkey. And it is not the one that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk advocated for Turkey. He wanted a Turkey that was at peace and had good terms with all its neighbors. Thank you, Oliver, for those subscriptions on Rumble. Very cool. Thank you for that. Fractured Zero One on Odyssey. Thank you for that super sticker. And from, one second, where am I? From Commando Crossfire.

Russia and Ukraine are one people, brothers, prolonging the war, which Russia is for geopolitical reasons, is cruel. Risks creating lines between blood tactical by blood. Tactical win, strategic loss. This is one of the factors that held back the Russians for a very, very, very long time and it remains, I believe, a reason for many of the acts of restraint that the Russians have continued to show. I remember one particular member of the Duran community who is Russian, who said that it's very difficult for Russians to bomb Kiev because for them it is the mother of all Russian cities. So why would you bomb the mother of your own cities? I mean, you know,

because that's, we have this enormously interconnected history. I think we've come to that point where the war has happened. And I'm going to say what I actually think. I think when the war is over, the people of Ukraine, like the people in the Caucasus and the Northern Caucasus, the Cherchians, will have an enormous revulsion against the West and a deep anger towards us for involving them in this conflict with people who are essentially themselves.

So I think it'll play out otherwise. Yadniz T says lived in London for nine years, didn't have the chance to meet Alexander M. Now living in Limassol. Can I get the chance to meet you, Alex C? Absolutely, probably Limassol. Just saying. Limassal, yeah, definitely.

Just, yeah, message me somehow. You can figure out ways. That will set it up. Iranian Kido says Iran actually doesn't view Armenia's closer ties with the West as a threat to its national interest. It means a stronger Armenian military. Iran is also a land route for Indian armed transfers to Armenia. Yes, I mean, this is the very complicated policies and strategies that have been followed in the Caucasus in the Caucasus by countries like Iran. Iran has had complicated

relationships with Azerbaijan, which has historically close relationships with Israel. all of that. What I would simply say is this, what strong Armenian army is that the Armenians were completely defeated in Qadabah. So what strong Armenian army is Iran supporting with this current regime in Yerevan? Just saying that these are questions for the Iranians to answer, not for me. Jamila says thank you gentlemen for your great work and I can't accept the freak Zelensky doing any decisions a warmonger is a big dog when when will this stop no more war no more NATO I agree absolutely

I agree with your sentiments entirely Altman welcome to drag community Elsa says Kazakhstan and Britain signed a military cooperation agreement last week can you comment on that thanks It's a worthless scrap of paper that means absolutely nothing. Kazakhstan has a lot of historic investments here in Britain. Lots of Kazakh businessmen starting, I call them businessmen. We know what they really are.

But I put an awful lot of money here in London in the 1990s and the 2000s. They've got all kinds of contacts here. And they want to protect that. So they tell the British, you know, we're on good terms. with you, don't act against us. We're not really, we're not, we shouldn't be sanctioned, but in the end it doesn't actually, in geopolitical terms, mean very much. Rockabilly, thank you for that super chat. Jungle Jin says Iran has demonstrated it could completely disable Israel. Is Israel wanting to commit suicide? Does the U.S. think that Iran's

threatened retaliation against the U.S. presence in the Middle East is a hollow threat? The thing is, just as all of these various attempts that Ukraine is making and the Europeans have been making are really ultimately about involving the United States and the Ukraine war, directly, directly involving the United States and the Ukraine war. So I think a lot of the game that has been played is about getting the United States into a war with Iran. And again, the assumption is that if that happens, because the United States is so powerful, that will mean that victory is guaranteed. I'm not sure it is as straightforward as that in terms of the outcome, but that I think is what these people are ultimately thinking. And there's a very, very voluble community of people in the United States who are absolutely lobbying for this. The Hockey Goley says, will West's continued support for Ukraine help undermine Israel? Every atrocity aimed at Russia carried out tenfold in Gaza, yet no outcry, call for no fly zones, etc.

We have no morals and it shows. It has, and even people in the State Department have admitted this. The support for what is happening in Gaza has destroyed Western credibility in much of the global south and has essentially meant that the global south doesn't support the West or show any sympathy towards the West over the conflict in Ukraine. But there it is. It doesn't seem to be affecting Western policy at all. You would have thought that at the moment, every single Western government would be saying to Israel, to the people who advocate war in Washington with Iran, don't do it, but there is relative silence.

Yeah, it's not working, yeah. They're obsessed with certain things. One of the things is Iran. They're obsessed with war with Iran. Yeah. And it looks like we might have it. We'll see. Iranian kiddo says to have a regime change in Iran,

it requires more troops than U.S. currently has. Well, the trouble is you may very well be right, but an awful lot of the people who advocate for that war don't think so. And they have convinced themselves rightly or wrongly that Iran is a house of cards. And if they blow at it, it will fall down. Now, that may be, I mean, I suspect that is a catastrophic miscalculation. But I think that is what they believe. So they don't think that this is going to be a, you know,

long drawn out difficult war, they believe that they'll be able to go into Iran, smash the government there, and all will be well. Sticky Mark says, Yarruski, just saying, listen, listen, please, Yorkshire, love. Thank you, sticky marks for that. LJD, thank you for that super chat.

Petros says, I've been to Georgia a couple of times. It's one of my favorites, was really impressed with the Vaca Vake district in Tbilisi? A blend of ancient and new reminds me of Baku. Absolutely.

Well, I have never been to Baku, but Tbilisi is an extraordinarily beautiful city. You can see, I mean, I'm an experience of seeing these things, you can see that this is a country that has been through a crisis

and you can see some of the traces of that in Tbilisi. But I predict, with the current rates of economic growth, if they are sustained and if peace in the region is maintained, in a few years' time it will be a jewel. It will be one of the most beautiful cities in the world, and people will go.

In the very best sense, the very best sense, it reminded me in places of the Athens of my youth, the leafy green Athens that I remember from my childhood. And they've kept all of that, and they've got beautiful buildings and great cuisine and amazing wine and all of that and mountains and is very verdant as well empire we are says it's a delusional policy but they have their eyes on that 100 trillion in resources and that's all they can see yeah i agree with you she says how does this end we seem to have western leaders controlled by individuals hell

bent on destroying countries and dominating the world i don't know how it ends but i don't know how it ends but i I'm going to make a guess. I suspect it will end in the bond markets. I know this is now becoming a cliche. But there will come a point where the funding stops. And we might not be that far from that point now. Honeybell, thank you for that super sticker. Iranian kiddo says this doesn't mean that Iran doesn't want closer ties with Baku.

There seems to be a warming of ties now under president. who recently visited Baku and is an Azeri speaker. And so is the supreme leader, by the way. Yes, I know. They are. Absolutely. And Pezashgian speaks Turkish and he's very keen on good relations with Turkey and all of that. But there's still a long way to go on clearly.

Yannistee, welcome to the Drand community. Lola Renee says, thank you, gentlemen, for the info you give us, plus your analysis. I watched Tucker Jeffrey Sachs conversation today educating about Iran. You might consider inviting Karine Javorgin. Okay. Yevorkidim. Okay. Thank you for that.

Iranian kiddo says with Iran's persuasion, Azaris seemed to have agreed to use a new 55 kilometer highway and rail route called Aras. corridor due for completion in 2008 from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Iran instead. Yes, I think that's a very, I mean, that would be a very, very positive sign, and I hope that that's developed and built on the more economic links and trade links that are the better. And there is no objective reason why Azerbaijan and Iran should not be friendly with each other. Commander Crossfire says Israel is stronger than it looks. Iran is weaker than it believes. Gaza, Lebanon, IDF have bloodstains and ruins behind but not defeat.

U.S. is still a superpower. A lot of people in Israel and the U.S. believe that. And it looks like they're going to test that proposition to destruction. Just a second. Jungle Jin says, even with the U.S. on Israel, Israel side in a war with Iran. How does that save Israel and U.S. bases from Iran's missiles?

U.S. and Israel have poor air defenses. Well, I think this is true, but of course the assumption coming back to what we've been saying over the course of this program is that they assume that because the government in Iran is unpopular, which is an universal belief across everybody

in the West and comments on this, because they assume that the Iranian government is unpopular. They assume that regime change in Iran will be easy and that the government there will collapse and will be replaced by a government which is friendly to themselves. Now, I think the Iranian government, you know, has, I think it's a complicated political situation in Iran. I don't think outsiders understand it very well. I think there are many things the Iranian government does, which is unpopular, which are unpopular.

but I also get the sense that this is a very, very nationalistic country, which if it's attacked, will probably draw together and consolidate. I don't think that there are these fissures in Iran that many people imagine. But that's, I mean, I don't pretend to know the inside realities of Iran that well. But that's what I think based on what people who have been there told me. St. David says Alex and Alexander, your views and opinions are much valued, respected and appreciated. Thank you, St. David. Thank you. And from Marcus, can the neocons deep state ever be stopped without regime change in the U.S.? Well, that's a very good question.

Regime change in the U.S. is a very complicated proposition because what does it mean exactly? Does it mean a revolution? Does it mean the coup? What does it mean? My own personal view is that the best thing to do in the US still is to let the political system play out, play its way out. I am not an advocate of political instability. I am not an advocate of regime change in any country. All I would say is that the course that the neocons are propelling the US onto has consistently failed. It's just failed in Ukraine. Just to say, I mean, we're dealing with, Trump is dealing with the problems of U.S. failure in Ukraine. That is the true picture. So nonetheless, what do the neocons do? They lose one war, so they start another. They now want

to start one with Iran. And sooner or later, this will have its economic consequences and its social and political consequences within the U.S. itself. Iranian Kido says, from my experience, Azeris like to make a distinction between their language and Turkish language, even though they are intelligible. Yes, I understand the same too. Again, I don't pretend I know the region. Well, I've never been to back it.

Jungle Jin says, so neocons believe that such a hope for regime change will preempt immediate Iranian retaliation in real time. I don't believe they think that Iran is capable of that kind of retaliation. I think that they assume that if they are able to defeat Iran quickly, then any blows that Iran makes towards Israel or towards American bases in the Middle East will be easily absorbed with minimum damage. Just as Saddam Hussein's scud missiles were back in 1991, I think that's the assumption these people met. They are never people who think these things through in any very great detail.

Diane says, hi there. Remember Mark Carney. He is Stammer 2.0 and wants to join the EU and give money to rearm Europe when we are broke. Alberta, a province will soon have a referendum to leave Canada due to carnage Carney and his net zero obsession. Gosh, I hadn't heard of Carney wanting to. to leave Canada into the EU. What a thought? It's being proposed. Yeah. By the EU. I didn't know. I didn't know. I mean, I mean, I don't know how serious. I don't think it's

serious at the moment, but you know, they're floating it out there. Well, I'm sure with people like Ursula or Ayat callas, they would probably be thrilled at the idea of expanding the EU into North America. Why not? It has nothing to do with Europe, does it? No, I know. Absolutely, of course. That makes it a compelling and attractive place to expand towards. Yeah. Iranian kiddo said. The world, the world union, not the.

They would love to call it that. Exactly. They would love to call it the world union. Absolutely. They would love that with Queen Ursula. Iranian Kido says Iran and Russia just finalized a deal to build a rail section located in the thick forest of southwestern, Caspian region. It would directly connect Russia to the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

I've heard about this. And it's against it, these are big moves. And of course, I said probably there are some of the reasons why this, you know, push towards war is being made at the moment. I think some of the reasons, by the way, are connected to internal problems, both in the United States and Israel itself. I mean, the neocons in the United States are pushing back because they feel that they are losing the battle over Ukraine, the internal battle over Ukraine. So they want to maintain their authority by involving the United States in another war.

And in Israel, there are strains always within the political system, which are not something I feel really competent to talk much about. Jungle Jun says, in other words, the neocons are clearly insane. Yes. I mean, they may,

may not be clinically insane, but in terms of their conduct policy, yes, because their policies are never reality-based. Monty 105 says, if Europe and the U.S. lose their grip on world politics, will the level of violence in international relations drop to more realistic levels in the new multipolar world? Yes. I have no doubt of it. Absolutely none. All right.

Alexander, I think that's everything. thoughts as a well it's a superb live stream I wish we had rather rather more pleasant topics to discuss dirty wars wars against Iran and we live in very interesting times

just as there yes we do all right thank you to everyone that joined us on this live stream on Odyssey and Rockfin, Rumble and YouTube

as well as the duran dot locals. com and thank you to our moderators. Zaryl, Harry, Peter, Brett. I think that's everyone that was moderating. Yeah, I hope that's everyone moderating. Iranian kiddo says Armenians are very special to Iranians. Armenians and Assyrians make up the majority of the Christian heritage in Iran,

despite Exodus after the Islamist take over of Iran. 1979 some estimated 200,000 Armenians live in Iran today. I've met Armenians from Iran and they love the country very much, just to say. I've met them in London. All right. That's it. Thank you, everybody. Thank you. Take care. We'll be back with some videos.