The Duran Podcast - Donbass to Odessa, Russia's Next Move After the War's Most Important Battle

Episode Date: April 22, 2026

Donbass to Odessa, Russia's Next Move After the War's Most Important Battle

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine. And we have an update from Yerazimov, as well as many significant Russian advances. And Zelensky, giving many interviews and talking about how he's done with the United States. He's done with Trump. And he's going to make a lot of drones and a lot of weapons. He may even be replacing the Patriot Air Defense system. that is what Zelensky is cooking up. What are your thoughts? Yes, I mean, Zelensky is becoming ever more grandiose and ever more detached from reality.

Now, by contrast, Gerasimov, he went again and visited one of the military headquarters, and he again did what he's been doing since late summer, which is providing us with a very detailed update of the situation on the battlefronts. and it's very, very interesting. And again, it's worth pointing out that this is a relatively recent development in this war. It only started at the end of the summer. Anyway, let's just go through what Gerassim has said.

Firstly, he said that the Battle of Dombas is now coming to an end, that the days for the liberation of Slaviansk and Kramatosk are now approaching, and that once these two places fall, the battle for Dombas is ended. He actually said that, and it was, I think he's concluding words. And he said that the Russians are now very close to these places. In some places, there are only 11 kilometers away, in other words, well within artillery range. And that in all other respects, in every other place, right across the country, battlefronts, the Russians are advancing and the Ukrainians are retreating. Now, he spoke briefly

about the Ukrainian counterattack in Zaporosia. He said this had been completely unsuccessful. He gave a number for the Ukrainian soldiers who were killed over the course of that counteroffensive, which, by the way, was 3,000, which sounds roughly correct. It's not one of these massively inflated figures that you get through at various points of the wall. But he said that the major fighting at the moment is taking place in two places in Konstantinovka. And he gave a very complicated, detailed account of what's happening in Konstantinvka. But it looks as if the Russians now control most of the built-up areas of Konstantinvka. And he said that the Russians are advancing from the southwest, which we all knew, but also from the northeast, which we didn't. But anyway, that they're

closing in on Constantinuket in that way. And he said that the Russians now control 70% of Lehman, and that that battle is now indeed coming to an end, but that it must be understood as part of the wider battles to take control of the whole of North East and Dombas and basically to surround Slaviansk and Kramatoz. And he said that the Russian advances in other places in Zaporosia region, but he placed a lot of emphasis on Russian advances into NEPRO-Petrovsk. So it looks as if this is soon going to be a major axis for future Russian offensives. And he had a lot less to say about the fighting in northeastern Ukraine in Sumi region, which is interesting because this is in fact an area where the Russians have been making a lot of advances indeed recently and where

the Ukrainians are saying that the city of Sumi, which is the regional capital, is now close to being surrounded. So that's the summary of the military situation. There's been some speculation, by the way, about whether the Russians have started their offensive, their spring offensive. The answer is unequivocally, yes, they have. Russian offensives are like the American Saturn rockets of the 60s. They start very slowly and then they gradually build up through the late spring. By the late summer, you start to see increasingly rapid movements resulting in a whole succession of places falling in the autumn. And I think that's exactly what we're going to see again this year. I mean, just to summarize it, we're talking about the entirety of Dombas. We're talking about

Slavians and Kramatwas. The two big cities. He's clearly saying now, I mean, he actually expressly, specifically said it that they are now, the battles for them are about to begin, and that they will soon fall. The liberation. of these places is now within sight. He said that we're in the final days of Ukraine in control of these two cities. So this is the chief of the general staff of the Russian army.

He's presumably very well informed about the... He is very well informed about the whole situation. So, well, I mean, he's also the command. So, and I mean, he regularly tours the headquarters and meets with all the frontline commanders. I can't believe that he's unaware of what is actually happening. From time to time, perhaps he tells us things that are not completely true because after all, this is a war and giving information that might throw the other side into

some confusion has a part to play. But overall, I found him in general fairly trustworthy. worthy. And I believe that he's right because it's on Slaviansk and Kramatosk, because it is fully in accord with everything else we see. And it is also in accord with something else, which is that the Russians are now becoming increasingly assertive in their diplomacy altogether. We've now had a further statement from a very senior official of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mikhail Ulianov. And he posted a comment on X, in which he said that the governments of the Baltic states need to understand that Russia is not afraid of taking the necessary action to protect Russian

speakers in the Baltic states. So, you know, coming after all the other things that others have been saying people like Shō, Lovrov now. Lavrov has also spoken about the Baltic states, Medvedev. So you can see that the Russians are becoming increasingly assertive there. They're becoming increasingly assertive on other things. I have been told that that tanker that went to Cuba, for example, did indeed have have a Russian naval escorts in the form of a nuclear submarine, which seems astonishing. I mean, the amount of overkill involved is huge.

But this was one of the major reasons why the Americans didn't interfere with that tanker. They knew that the submarine was there. So the Russians are becoming more assertive in almost every respect. And I can't help but think that this is. connected to their belief that the Battle of Dombas in particular is coming to an end. I'm going to make a guess that when the Battle of Dombas ends, we will see Putin come out, set out a whole new set of demands, formally update Istanbul Plus, say at the very least, Ukraine cannot join NATO, oh, sorry, the EU, sorry, Ukraine cannot join the EU, but probably say

other things too. In other words, he will give what is in effect an ultimatum. And one part of that ultimatum will be the Vladimir Zelensky can no longer remain president of Ukraine, at the very least as well. So, and I'm sure there will be a lot of other demands thrown in as well, perhaps about the Baltic states too. But the fact that the Russians are becoming more assertive in the way that they are speaking is a further sign that they think that the Battle of Dombas, the most difficult battle of the war, the most important battle of the war, is indeed coming to an end. And that the position, they've now reached that position where they cannot just be more assertive, but in their rhetoric, but also more assertive in their actions.

Yeah, the collective West media doesn't talk much about the front lines. No. They don't talk at all about the front lines. No. Interesting that Yerazimov mentioned Tripiro Petrosk. Yeah. I think that's interesting. Very interesting.

Did he mention Zaporosier? Yes, he did mention Zaporosier. But actually he gave more weight. He gave more time to Nebroposk, which, again, he talked about a security zone and a buffer and all of that. But buffers and security zones are very flexible concepts. In Sumi region, it's starting to look as if the city of Sumi itself is going to fall inside this security zone. And there are reports now that the Russians are eyeing the city of Pavlovrad, which is an important city. basically midway between Pachrosk and the NEPA.

And there are apparently few defenses there. And if you actually start to look at maps, you could see that the Russians are not that far from it now, just say. Odessa and Putin's ultimatum, perhaps? Yes, I would guess so. I would guess so. I would guess so. I think that is highly likely.

The Russians have been very, very busy in the last few weeks and attacking positions around Odessa with missiles and drones. They seem to be undertaking a systematic campaign, for example, to cut off the big rail links to Adessa. It looks as if they are acting to isolate Adessa to the extent that it can be isolated, not just from the rest of Ukraine, but by the way. from NATO controlled Europe, from Romania and Poland as well, but especially Romania. That's the threat.

That's the threat, yeah, exactly. Well, it's not just the threat. You can see it as a preparation for a future offensive towards Adessa to make it more difficult for either the Ukrainians or perhaps on NATO to intervene in Adessa by deploying troops rapidly there. Because in order to get there, you need to use the railways. Okay. Anything else you may want to add to this? Well, I am going to wear out another thing, which is, of course, we still see Putin himself. Disappeared. He's not playing an active role in this. He's still very active in other things. There was a very contentious,

I got a sense very angry meeting on economic questions, which Putin chaired, which he made it absolutely clear that he was not happy about the fact that there'd been a contraction in January and February, and it was quite obvious that it was Nebuliner that he was blaming for it. And Nebuliners then made certain very defensive comments in public about the central banks' policies. So, you know, he's clearly still there. He's clearly still in charge. He still conducts all the diplomacy with the Chinese. He's going to China. Some say as soon as May. Some are saying he's going to be in China just after Trump is going to be in China if Trump actually does go to China. So he's still there. He's still in overall control of that, I have no doubt.

But for the moment, at this time, at least, he's deliberately taking a backseat in terms of the diplomacy, to the extent that there is any, in terms of Ukrainian policy. There's clearly been a decision to leave it to people like Lavrov, Medvedev, Shoygu, to a certain extent, Gerasimov as well, to make the running. and that suggests to me that there is still continuing a major discussion in Moscow about what is going to happen. And usually when Putin comes and speaks, as I said, it will be, I expect it will be, to announce a major change in policy. And that will be, as I said, after the Dombast battles, And it won't just be a policy about Ukraine, by the way.

It will be a policy about Europe. We've just done another program in which you've touched on remilitarization in Europe as well. And I think what the Russians are going to say is that with Europe continuing to be extremely hostile, dialogue with Europe at the present time is important. possible and that Russia should not seek it. I think that is coming. Just to add to the economic report that you gave with Nubulina, Swedish Intel, according to the Financial Times, claims that the Russian economy is about to collapse. Yes, always.

It's running a larger deficit than that is being reported. Yes, I know. They always say this. By the way, the Swedes have been published... Another package, they want another sanctions package that'll collapse. Yes. Exactly. The Swedes have been reporting these things for as long as I can remember. Sweden, for some reason, has been particularly aggressive in pushing sanctions. And they recycled these reports on a fairly regular basis. I don't see any sign of this myself in the overall economic numbers.

But certainly, nobulean is under significant pressure. And as I said, there was this contentious meeting in the Kremlin. over the fact that, as I said, the growth, Russia registered minus growth of minus 1.8 in January and February. By the way, Siluanov, the finance minister, since we've just been talking about this, he's denied that there is a budget problem or that there was any budget problem.

He said that Russia ran a bigger budget than usual in January, but that it was always planned, and this is the way budget planning, now is that spending is front-loaded and that the receipts come in over the course of the year. And even without the upward bump in oil prices that we're now seeing, the budget would have met its targets by the end of this year anyway. I think that money is not even going to register the bump in the oil prices. It's not going to register for, I believe, another month or two.

That's right. That's right. That's not going to have an immediate impact, the increase in the oil prices for the Russian budget. That's going to come in a couple of months from now. Exactly. Well, when the oil companies start to provide their funding. The whole story about the Russian economy collapsing is like the stalemate in the war or the success that the Ukrainians are achieving. it is based, it is a narrative that simply will not die.

I mean, that's all I can say. I mean, I don't know how many times what we've had to rebut it. It just comes back. I anticipate that in 10 years time, we will still be having these discussions. A hundred years time. A hundred years time. We'll still be having these discussions. or AI sales will be happy.

Well, exactly, exactly. All right, we'll end the video there. The durand.locals.com. We're on X, we're on Telegram. We are on Rumble. We're also on substack, so check us out there and go to Durant Shop, pick up some merch. All those links are in the description box down below.

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