The Duran Podcast - Drones Over Helsinki. Finland Dragged Into Conflict w/ Armando Mema

Episode Date: May 20, 2026

Drones Over Helsinki. Finland Dragged Into Conflict w/ Armando Mema

All right, Alexander, we are here once again with Armando Mema joining us on V. Duran. Armando, where can people find you? Where can they follow your work? People can follow me on X and YouTube. I have also a small telegram channel where I share my thoughts. It's a great pleasure to be with you as always. All right, and I have Armando's links in the description box down below, including his Twitter account. where you can follow Armando. Alexander, Armando, let's discuss what is happening in Finland, what is happening with all of these drones.

The drone chaos, let's call it that. The drone chaos indeed. And can I say it's actually one worries becoming a rather dangerous time in the Baltic altogether. Shortly before I did this program, we did this program together, I was reading certain comments by the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Abkhov. He was talking about an increasing threat of war in the Baltic. He was commenting about drones, obviously, and about the tensions there. And he was giving another series of warnings now that the Russians are giving

about the dangers of war in the Baltics and about the Russian ready. if war comes to respond in kind to it. So these are the sort of things which, if they'd been said by a Russian official during the Cold War, I could say absolutely, would have absolutely raffled everybody. They'd have been all over the media in the West. There would have been an atmosphere of fear and crisis. Now I noticed that they're barely reported at all, which I think is a major mistake. So very good for us to have Armanda with us again, able to discuss all of these issues about the Baltic, about his own country, about Finland, about the situation with drones and the passage of drones as the Russians complain across NATO airspace and about

Finland's place in all of this. Firstly, Armando, do you think we should take warnings like the one that Yab Kuf has given seriously. I think you picture perfectly the situation as of now for the all of Europe. If you were to get a picture and look at it closely, you describe it perfectly. The recent incident of drones that happened in Helsinki on the 15th of May, I think it's the first time that an European city with a region which have a population of about 2 million people were told to seek shelter between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. in the morning. This is the fifth time that a drone incident is happening into Finland. The scale of this recent incident of the drone, it appears to be to me a very big one,

comparing to the other previous time, because, as you can imagine, for the first time, the population were told to seek shelter and not to go out. myself I was going to work that morning and the alarm of the mobile app didn't work. So I get to know the notification through the Italian embassy, which I'm a dual citizen. And I just was caught in the middle. I couldn't go back. So I just proceeded to work because it was closer to me at that time for reaching work. So it has affected me also directly.

And I think what might have happened is that the authorities got notification three hours in advance, according to the authorities. So the Ministry of the Interior got informed by the Allies. They didn't, at first they didn't report who their allies were, but after they said that it was actually Ukraine that informed the counterpart that a drone attack was taking place that night. And I think it must have been really massive because all the people were told to seek shelter, yeah. Whose drones are worthies? I mean, what are the authorities saying about this? Were these Ukrainian drones? Were they Russian drones?

We know there's been a major crisis in Latvia over the fact that Ukrainian drones have been crossing over Latvian territory. There's been a collapse of the government there. Estonia has been complaining about Ukrainian drones. overflying their territory. But a few months ago, we had all sorts of reports and claims about Russian drones entering Poland and operating over Denmark. Whose drones, as far as you know, are these and whose drones, does the Finnish government say they are? There's no question about it. The Finnish authorities have been very clear on this. All the drones

that have violated the Finnish airspace that have been reported to be Ukrainian. Now, of course, the Finnish government is blaming Russia for, they're saying that they are diverting the route of these drones. So they're claiming that it is actually Russia that make loose control of the drones once they reach close to their airspace, and so they come back. The official version, I think the Finnish Authority have been very cautious about, you know, they might have said that these drones are Russian drones, but I think they will also have understood the consequences, as being one of the major neighbor of Russia.

So there's no question the authorities all the time they have. First, they investigate, and then they say it was actually Ukrainian drones. The thing is the Finnish government, they are not reacting as they should. Like today they shut down a drone in Estonia. and I think this is the first time we've seen that Ukrainian drone is shut down inside directly by the NATO. So the first incident of the drone which happened in March, the drones were allowed to fly very deep into South and Finland,

about one and a half hour of flight. So they managed to reach very deep into Southend Finland and Helsinki area, and then eventually they crashed into the Meza, the forest. The other two, three incidents, the latest one previously to that, the drones were actually, they made it through to Russian territory. So I think this is a very good point because the drones first enter the Finnish airspace and then they exit toward the southern part of Russia in San Peterborough area. So the authorities are claiming that there is no such a thing as, you know,

Finland allowing its own airspace. but I think that's very questionable, at least from the Russian side, that they are seeing these drones coming from the areas next to their border. Well, I'm just going to make my own point. If the Russians are controlling these drones, then it seems strange that they should allow them to cross into Russia. Attack targets there. I mean, there might be some contorted explanations for that,

but I can't myself see them. What is the Finnish public saying? Are they worried? Are they frightened? Are they blaming Ukraine? Are they blaming Russia? Are they demanding action from the Finnish government? I think the public, when you go to a cafe in any cafe in Helsinki, what you might notice that is very surprising is people debating not about where they're going to spend their next holidays,

but about whether or not they're going to be a direct confrontation with Russia. So people are afraid of what's happening. Finland used to be very, very safe, very peaceful. And, you know, when you go to work and you've been told by the authority for the fifth time that drones are crossing the territory, and the sick shelter, this has a great impact on the public opinion. So now there are two narratives. One is given by the Finnish government.

They're saying that, well, this is happening because Ukraine is struggling for his own defense. But I see also people getting upset. like they're questioning the authorities why they're not shutting down these drones in advance, why they're allowing these drones to fly so deep into the territory that they may, you know, cause real damage because, as I've understood, there are 4.4 meter long and they carry explosive that can cause great damage. So I will say there's a mixture of feelings and you can feel the tension in the air and you can see that people are sensing that, you know, things are changing in a very fast way. Is anybody in the political system saying that it looks as if Ukraine is trying to involve

Finland directly in the war, because I'm going to say it straight away, this is how it looks to me. I mean, sending drones of a Finnish airspace to attack Russia, which is what this whole thing looks like to me, is an attempt to drag Finland into this crisis. Yeah, unfortunately, all the major parties of the government, they are, you know, the uniparty of war. So they are not questioning Ukraine. There is, the debate, public debate is very poison and toxic. Like, usually is the president that discuss the foreign policy of the country.

So the politicians in the parliament, they are very cautious about talking about any, any topic in foreign politics. And especially when it comes to, to Russia and Ukraine, there is a real, you know, people get super emotional and they start to, you know, to, like, as it was my case, that blamed me of being a Russian propagandist. So, like, you don't have a discussion like with adults in the room, but you feel like you having a childish discussion that you should be able to question the military support for Ukraine. I've been having myself a very strong stance for peace and for dialogue, which I believe it's not a very extremist view, like wanting the European Union to find a diplomatic solution

over four years of this conflict. So the main parties, they're not talking openly about Ukraine. They're not, also, they're not advised to do so. So we have only the foreign minister, Elina Valtoren, that she's having, unfortunately, a very aggressive approach to this conflict. She's saying that it doesn't matter if drones crash into Finland, but she's going to continue to support military Ukraine. And it seems to me that the leadership in Finland,

they're not understanding the scale of danger that is coming into Finland. And I also do believe that this might be an attempt to drag Finland into the war because that might give to Ukraine the idea that if NATO is directly involved, we might have better chance of overcoming this. I have to say, I'm very concerned, I'm very upset to hear that people are so emotional in discussing this topic in Finland. Only the Finnish Finland, I remember, was always very cool and logical and rational in discussing these things. And particularly if you're on the front line, and we're talking about questions of war and peace,

a level-headed, proper discussion conducted moderately and wisely is even more important than it is on any issue of demand. domestic policy. Now, just make that comment, but it's certainly one that I feel. Now, the European Union has been agonising about whether or not to start discussions with the Russians. And there's this enormously complicated discussion about who, if it is going to have a discussion with the Russians, who should represent it. And there's been some suggestions that the president of Finland might be that person. Is that being talked about? in Finland at the moment. Absolutely.

He's on the major headlines of all over the country, but it's completely out of touch with the reality because President Stubb during his presidential campaign has promised that wherever the reason

Putin may call him, he will not even answer the phone. So this was his first approach and then he went and said, that now the war in Ukraine is his personal war. And he has been repeating that if we continue to support military, just a little bit more with Ukraine, they might win this war,

which I personally believe is completely unrealistic. Russia is still a superpower. They have still a lot of deterrents. And in whatever case, they are fighting, a war of existence and you know just to see like president's being promoted as one of the people who might have a dialogue with russia it looks to me it might look good for publicity for him but it doesn't apply on the reality i don't think that anyhow the russians will want to talk to him about any negotiation over Ukraine.

Yeah. Because Finland used once to be the place when negotiations between the Russians and the West happened. As we discussed in our previous program, the Helsinki Final Act was negotiated and signed in Helsinki. And the negotiations for the Saltman Treaty, which I remember very well, took place between the Americans and the Russians in Helsinki. The Finns who are right there on the front line, I mean, you've got to board it with Russians. You are very close to St. Petersburg. It used to be possible to take the train from St. Petersburg and back, as I very well remember. Well, you should be even more aware of the dangers of war in the Baltic and even more worried

about them than people in... the rest of Europe and ought to be advocates for negotiations. And would you tell me that isn't the stance President Stubb is taking at all? Yes, it's not the stance is taking at all. And I would like to add the fact that the Parliament is changing a law about nuclear weapons, which was a law of the 70s and the new proposal of the law will technically allow Finland to host nuclear weapons from a third country into the Finnish territory. So like not just rhetoric but also very dangerous things that the Finnish government is taking and is shaping and changing the security of the country because,

you know better than me, Alexander, because you have multiple years of experience in politics and international affairs, that if a country next to a superpower were to acquire nuclear weapons, it's a big issue. And this is also being used as the main discussion by the United States for the war in Iran, that it should never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. So this change from the Finnish government, it really, I think, sends a very bad signal to Russia. And also adding the fact that countries like France and the coalition of the Willings,

you know, they are hallucinating about this idea of not depending anymore on American nuclear umbrella and instead to have their own nuclear umbrella, I just think it's out of the reality. And personally, I have no idea what Russia might do if Finland were to acquire nuclear weapons or change the laws. And another thing, as of now, Finland,

is sending 40 military experts to help the Ukrainian army. So this is also another step that is escalating. It's not sending it directly into Ukrainian territory. It's sending through other European countries, but they're going to give training directly to the Ukrainian army. So we have a situation where the government is changing the law for nuclear, is sending soldiers to help directly in the war and is financing with weapons. And on top of that, the main discussion, which is for us today the drone issue in the country.

So now Russia is perceiving that Finland is using his own airspace for these operations. Has the fact that President Putin in a recent press conference spoken very bitterly about Finland? Has that been reported in Finland at all? Because Putin gave this press conference on the 9th of May after the victory parade. And he spoke about Finland and its reasons for joining NATO. and I personally was struck by the anger and the sense of betrayal he felt about what Finland had done. And again, I would have thought that would be something that people in Finland ought to know about and worry about. But has it been reported?

And if so, what was the reaction? Yes, it has been reported from the main outlets. The reaction has been very, very, also from the military experts here, that we should continue to support the Ukraine military. We should not take seriously Russian threats, which I think it's a very dangerous approach, especially because you live next to Russia geographically, and you're taking this kind of policies that are seeing very badly from the other side. And I'm perhaps one of the very few people in Finland who have taken seriously the speech of President Putin over Finland. And perhaps the most concerned person in Finland right now is me because I follow

greatly the old issues happening and I also being my declarations are being reported almost daily in Russia so this is also some let's say positive thing happening for in the prospect of the escalation of dialogue that the Russian side have taken very seriously the my political views and almost daily they are reporting. And it seems to me that they like the way I'm talking certain things about the Ukrainian war for the need for dialogue. And it will be nice if also other leaders in Europe will also take seriously. But it looks that they live in their own bubble and they think they can cross red lines

and they can think they can continue to support military Ukraine without any consequences. What if Ukraine loses the war? Because, I mean, the way you describe it is Finland is very heavily investing in supporting Ukraine to win the war. But what if Ukraine actually loses? What does Finland do then? Yeah, I think Europe has no strategy. for that scenario. And that is why they continue to do what they're doing.

And Finland, I think the political class in Finland has not understood the gravity, the possibility that, you know, once Russia might finish the job with Ukraine, they might have their hands free to direct. security threats or security issues somewhere else. And this is not being fully understood, in my opinion. They have had this notion, this idea that joining NATO will automatically make Finland heavenly and no risk will happen at all into the country. But I think there is a misconception of the NATO membership.

like Ukraine is already treated as a NATO member. So like if Finland were to escalate with Russia, I think we'll receive a similar treatment to Ukraine. So like the NATO countries will give the weapons Finland might need and they're not going to risk a nuclear war over Finland over Ukraine. I think there is a big great misconception of, of how the real stuff work on the battlefield. So it might happen, it's very likely.

And the fact that 2 million people had to seek shelter, I think it gives well the idea that being in NATO doesn't automatically make you feel safer. Is it disgusted at all in Finland that in fact Finland, Finland chose to join NATO at exactly the moment when NATO began, what is the greatest crisis in his history. I say that with absolute confidence because my memory of NATO extends all the way back to the 60s, and I have never known tensions and a crisis of the kind that we have today. When the Cold War ended, there were a quarter of a million troops, American troops, in Europe. Now there's about 35,000, so I understand. Donald Trump is pulling out 5,000 of them. He's refusing, he's decided not to deploy more NATO troops to Poland. And there is a long, big dialogue in the United States, not about scaling up US protection, US presence in Europe, but scaling it down. So it seems to me that,

Finland is taking all of these moves, relying upon an alliance which is in crisis and weakening. Does anybody talk about this? Yes, of course, there is a sense of regret and a sense of maybe we have rushed into joining NATO. And I think especially at the economic level, people can really feel that, that cutting the ties and the business with Russia has affected greatly the country. So I talk with some business people and they're telling me that, you know, this thing for us, it has been rushed and it's affecting our companies and it's affecting our way of doing business. So there is definitely a discussion.

over over this, but at the same time it seems that the mainstream media is pushing so heavily for an anti-Russian narrative. This started when President Biden was in charge and it had a very big shift into the perception of Russia. Like, of course, the Finnish people have always, since the historically, I've always seen the Russian a bit with suspicious, you know, but they have also had great relations for many years with Kekkonen and the very independence of Finland was built on that mutual trust with the neighbor Russia. So this has been, it's like going into a Ferrari and accelerating at the highest speed. And then you might crash somewhere with the car and you might think like, oh, maybe I shouldn't have gone that far, that fast.

Yeah. You mentioned the economic situation. I mean, if Finland had been neutral and on good terms with Russia, I mean, it would have been protected from the gathering energy crisis, which you're all going to be facing very soon. Does anybody in Finland talk about that? I mean, it's not just the industrial links that existed and other economic and trading links that existed. But there was the energy links as well. And the thing about the Finland that had all of those things,

is that it went from being a very poor country to becoming the very, very rich and actually very happy country that I remember. So does anybody talk about that, that, you know, the energy crisis is coming? Definitely. And there is no... People are posting on the social media. They are posting pictures of the price at the fuel station. And they are complaining of how expensive it has become to buy the fuel.

and Finland used to buy cheap energy from Russia. They had the flow of gas of approximately $6 million per day. And considering the war in Iran now and the all instability globally for the energy, definitely Finland would have been in a better position than it is right now for the energy. So like Russia is geographically near to Finland. It's easy to transport even by road. They call easy access cheap energy. And also for the construction industry, which is one of the biggest, the material.

Now the construction company are buying the materials from other countries and they're buying it at three times or four times higher than they used to buy his products from Russia. So this is affecting the prices for the housing, is affecting the transportation for the food. So like when people go for, you know well because you are an economist. So you know well how automatically like the rise of fuel. it creates inflation and stockflation in the long run. So definitely Finland would have benefit right now if they had a more neutral approach.

But that is not the case. And when you said also about, you know, depending on security on the United States, there was this speech of, of President Stubb at the Munich Security Conference, where he said that we can actually defend ourselves without the need of the United States. And a few minutes later, he regretted,

and he apologized for what he said at the Security Conference. So I think that explains well how the mood is. If Finland had been neutral, firstly, it would have been in a strong position, it seems to me, to take action and shoot down these drones. You mentioned that the Finnish authorities said that they'd been alerted about these drones by an ally, the ally being Ukraine, which is sending the drones over Finland in the way that it is. Well, if Ukraine had not been an ally, if Finland had been a neutral country, it would presumably have been in a better position to protect its sovereignty and its territory from these drones. And I'm going to say it, in all the years that Finland was neutral, I never remember anything like this happening.

I never remember it once. I mean, that was during the Cold War. There were periods of great tension during the Cold War, the Berlin crisis, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Crisis Overdeployment of American Intermediate Forces in Europe. I don't think remember anybody hiding in shelters in Finland, in Helsinki, during those times. Yes, definitely.

It feels surreal. It feels completely, you know, out of touch with the reality that people have to seek shelter for hours. They have been for about three hours, the warnings from the authority. And then after 7 a.m., they said, now is fine. You can go back to work or your activities. And definitely, that's what a state is supposed to do to protect the integrity of of the safety of the people and the territorial integrity,

whether it's airspace or land or sea, Finland would have been in a better position to shut down immediately these drones. But because it's an ally of Ukraine, it's more, you know, the Finnish government is telling the people that we are helping Ukraine for this just cause and all those things, and then it will have a massive effect on them, then fighting directly with Ukraine, shooting down the drones. So I think the Finnish government knows very well what they are doing.

The fact that today they shot down a drone in Estonia, I think it gives well the idea that they can shoot down these drones if they want. But it looks to me that they are hoping for these drones to reach their target. And that's why they are not shooting them down, which is very dangerous for a state to do. Because they can fall on literally everyone, on buildings, everyone. Well, they also implicate, if Finland is allowing it to happen, they implicate, they involve Finland in a war, which is not, it's, but can I just ask one very last question? Has Finland, what has Finland said to Ukraine about this? I mean, has the Finnish government protested to the Ukrainian government?

How they tell them to stop? Have they told them letting your drones overfly our territory? completely unacceptable. Have they done anything like that? How have the Ukrainians responded if complaints like that have indeed been made? Yeah, the Finnish government has had a foreign conversation with the leadership in Ukraine and they have shown some indignation to the public that all of this shouldn't happen in Finland. But then they did not take a pragmatic approach to say like, hey, you should stop doing what you're doing, but instead they have given just yesterday the notification from the Minister of Interior to the public for future incidents.

So they are preparing the people of what to do in case of a drone flying inside Finland. And let me add this to, you know, also to have a laugh also because in the description, it was saying if you are in an area that you cannot see shelter anywhere. And if it happened that you see a pit anywhere, you should jump inside it. I think this is like not what the government is supposed to do. like to tell people that you should go and stick shelter because Ukraine they have to continue fighting. They should tell to the Ukrainian government

you should not endanger the safety of our people. This is a red line for us. We are helping you in your struggle for self-defense, but not at the expense of our citizens. nothing of this sort has happened. They're giving instructions to people, and right now the people are uncertain, and they live in fear,

because this kind of incident are supposed to happen, again, according to the instructions given by the authorities. Armando Memo, thank you for a superb interview, if I can say. Thank you for answering my questions, so straightforwardly and simply and clearly and directly. Let's have you. Please come on to our show. Thank you very much for having me.

Armando, where can people follow your work? They can follow me on X, former Twitter, Telegram, and YouTube channel. Thank you. All right, I will have those links in the description box down below. Take care.