The Duran Podcast - Energy WIN for Orban. Sanctions WIN for Russia. Germany demands Ukraine escalation

Episode Date: June 30, 2025

Energy WIN for Orban. Sanctions WIN for Russia. Germany demands Ukraine escalation

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on with Project Ukraine. And let's focus in on the diplomacy in and around Project Ukraine. And let's start things off with the Trump administration lifting sanctions against Hungary, against the Pax II nuclear facility, the civilian nuclear facility, that Hungary was about to build with Russia. And then Biden, on his way out, decided to block that project. And Trump has now lifted those sanctions on the PACs, too. And this is a big deal.

I think it signals something very big with regards to U.S.-Russia relations and normalization of diplomatic ties. But on the other side of things, you have Lindsey Graham saying that the bone crushing sanctions against Russia are ready. He has 84 senators. The bill will be passed in July, but there's a caveat to Lindsey Graham's bluster and his threats about bone crushing sanctions against, well, it gets China and India, really, bone crushing sanctions with regards to Russian energy and countries that decide to purchase Russian energy. The caveat is, is that the bill would basically give Trump the option of whether he wants to implement those

sanctions. My thinking on this is that Trump will go along with this and he'll tell Lindsay, fine, go ahead and pass this bill, but it'll sit in Trump's lower drawer of his desk in the Oval Office somewhere underneath a whole bunch of other papers because anyone that would implement these Lindsey Graham sanctions would have to be absolutely crazy because it would harm the United States more than any other country out there. So your thoughts on these sanctions that are being implemented or being lifted. Indeed. I mean, there's been an article apparently in the Washington Post, which makes exactly the point that you've just made. Do the people who authored the sanctions bill to really understand what its effect would be if it was ever passed and implemented in the way

that they say they want, that it would absolutely devastate the US economy and the world economy in total. And by the way, Putin has been asked about the sanctions bill. And he said, you know, okay, go ahead, make my day, bring it on. I'm not bothered. I'm absolutely confident now that we can sort of navigate this. And he's right, by the way. I mean, you know, we've discussed this many, many times. The one thing this sanctions bill would do is it would increase oil prices. And I mean, that's the one absolute given and given that Russia would still be able to export oil, which it would make more money. I mean, that's how it would work out for the Russians. That's how it has consistently worked out. All sanctions on Russian energy have ended up pushing

up the price of energy. And one of the big beneficiaries in financial terms has been Russia. But anyway, I agree with you. I think that the bill, if passed, is going to have that caveat. I mean, that's absolutely clear now. And that gives Trump the option. And it's an option that he's going to exercise repeatedly in the negative. He doesn't want to impose sanctions like that. He's lifted, he's given China a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil. And China is the world's biggest importer of Iranian oil. And he has just taken this absolutely enormous decision about the Hungarian nuclear power plant. And it's important to say that the sanctions that he's eased don't just relate to, you know,

the Hungarian contractors and builders of this nuclear power plant. They extend to Russian companies and banks that are also involved in building this nuclear power plant. And obviously, it is a major gift to Victor Orban and a major success for Victor Orban. But it is also a major sanctions concession to the Russians and one that goes completely in the face of what Lindsay Graham is talking about. So the overall impression one is getting is that this administration, Donald Trump, especially on anything that is energy-related, and of course nuclear power plants are energy-related operations. He doesn't want the price of energy to rise any further. And instead of time, sanctions on Russia, his real objective at the moment is to start to walk them back.

And Rubio, who is he Secretary of State at the summit meeting in the Hague, the NATO summit in the Hague, gave an interview with Politico in which he essentially said that. He said that the decision as to who should impose the sanctions must be Donald Trump if we go ahead with the kind of sanctions that Lindsay Graham is talking about, we will lose all leverage over the Russians and any idea of negotiating with the Russians some kind of ceasefire deal in Ukraine is dead. And therefore, it ought to be Trump and Trump alone who makes the decision, which renders the entire Lindsey Graham bill an exercise.

in pure theater, because to repeat again, Trump has the power to impose whatever sanctions he chooses, he can do it by executive order. The bill, in effect, would neither give him more power, would neither give him more power to impose further sanctions, nor take that power away. So the German foreign minister, he arrived in Kiev, and this is his first trip, the new German foreign minister, not Annalina Berbach. We're talking about what's the guy's name, Johann Wanda Pole or whatever. Anyway, he's not very fond of Russia either, this guy. But he arrived in Kiev, and basically his message is that the European Union and Germany will support Ukraine no matter what. The United States is not in sync with the European Union, at this one. At least, that's how it looks from the Trump administration, that he is completely disengaged from Project Ukraine. What do you see going on here?

Yeah, I mean, Trump has basically stopped talking about Ukraine. Again, I don't think people have really noticed this. He doesn't post about it. He doesn't post about it. He barely talks about this. He had this meeting with Zelensky in the Hague, which lasted for an hour. He didn't say very much. He just let Zelenskyy did the talking.

He said it was a nice meeting, went away. There's been no more Patriot missiles, no more uplifts in deliveries. He seems to be quietly walking away finally from this. He seems to have lost interest in it. Interestingly enough, this is also true of some of the other European allies of Ukraine. In Britain, Kirstama has finally started to go silent on Ukraine. He hasn't been talking much about it recently. You remember all the peacekeeping contingents that were going to be sent to Ukraine?

The talk about no-fly zones. I haven't been reading or hearing much about that anymore for some time. I'm not saying that British policy has changed in any way. They continue to support Ukraine. exactly the way they did, but they don't seem to be as engaged with the topic as they used to be. So that leaves the Germans, and Mertz not only is determined to go on supporting Ukraine, but he's doing this. I have to say, to me it looks like a frankly rather crazed way. So he's now doing everything he possibly can to make sure that Nord's strong.

stream never reopens. And he's apparently very frustrated that the EU Commission hasn't been able to get it 18th energy sanctions package through, which would have apparently imposed sanctions on Nord Stream. So he's very angry about that. And he's trying to find other ways to stop Nord Stream being reopened. And he's trying to warn off American businessmen who might be interested in investing in Nord Stream. He is. continuing to talk about the importance of Germany, re-arming and building up its military forces to the level that it can take on the Russians. He's talking about war with Russia and why this isn't something that Germany should be afraid of. He's talking about reintroducing conscription.

But the moment he says that's not the immediate plan, but if enough young Germans don't volunteer to serve in the army, well, he might reconsider conscription. So he remains at the moment the one crusading, committed, dedicated figure to supporting Ukraine to the ultimate level. He's sending his foreign minister to Kiev to convey that message to Zelensky. He's still intent on giving Zelensky lots and lots of money. He still talks about Ukraine being on an irreversible course towards joining NATO. he still uses that kind of extraordinary language. He seems to be, you know, the last person standing,

who remains committed to the Biden policy on Ukraine. Now, everybody else, as I said, Trump is walking away. The other Europeans, one gets the sense that they're losing hope, but Mautz seems resolved to continue. It does look like Trump is walking away, but once again, who knows? Maybe tomorrow, Lindsay Graham whispers in his ear something or Tom Caden and he starts posting like crazy about Putin. But we'll see. You know, he did talk to Zelensky at the NATO event. And usually in the past, after he had finished speaking with Zelensky

and Macron and all these people, then he would go on to truth social and post all kinds of terrible things about Russia and Putin and make all kinds of threats because he just finished talking to Zelensky. This time around at NATO, he didn't do anything like that. Exactly. So I think that is a clear signal that he's losing interest in Project Ukraine. And I would say that the Trump White House should absolutely start creating a lot of distance between President Trump and Project Ukraine so that when you get to the point where the Zelensky regime collapses and there's no doubt that Russia has has won this war and defeated NATO and the collective West and Ukraine, that when Trump is asked by reporters and he starts getting pressure about the project

Ukraine, but the Trump White House can say, Project Ukraine, what project Ukraine? I don't know. That was Europe's war. That was Biden's war. I tried to get a ceasefire. Whatever. I mean, that should be the way he positions himself over the next six months to a year. So, in my opinion, he should start creating a lot of distance between his administration and Project Ukraine, NATO, and the EU. That would be the smart way to play it. But once again, we're talking about Trump and he can flip-flops and it's chaos. So who knows what could happen tomorrow or in the next month or so?

As far as Germany is concerned, what do you think about the analysis that Germany, my analysis, isn't that to Germany, and I'm going to say this very simply. You can expand on it. That Germany, out of all the countries in the European Union, it is Germany that either needs a big war with Russia, they need a big war for their economy, for economic reasons. They have to have a big war. Or they have to continue to bluff about a big war because Germany really doesn't have much else left. They've pretty much lost everything in Project Ukraine. They've lost their entire economic engine, which was completely reliant on cheap Russian energy.

They went all in and they're coming out to be the biggest loser next to Ukraine and all of this. So they need a big war or they need the bluff of a big war to continue. I mean, what are your thoughts on that? And you can comment about Trump as well, and then we'll end the video. I mean, first of all, I completely, I mean, I'm going to be very sure. short about Trump because I completely agree with you. I mean, you're quite right. He's volatile. He can go from one day to the next and say extraordinary things about the Russians and reverse course entirely. He's done this many times. We've had all these dizzy maneuvers and things. But for the

moment, he's not posting things on truth social. There's no word of Trump sending Wick off again to Moscow and having further meetings with Putin. Erdogan has been talking about setting up a summit meeting between Putin and Trump. Putin gave a very long answer when asked about the summit meeting with Trump, which was essentially a very polite and gracious, no, this isn't the right moment for it. But Putin's aide, Uschikov, is now talking about a potential meeting with Trump. maybe in October at the UN, which is an interesting idea. So, you know, it might be something like that finally starts to happen.

In the meantime, of course, the summer and the autumn will have passed and will have had lots of military developments by then. But, you know, one could see that for the moment at least, Trump isn't doing much. He doesn't seem to be listening to Kellogg. You don't hear much from Kellogg anymore. Wick Gov, as I said, isn't going to Moscow. Trump, as you rightly say, seems to be quietly walking away.

And you're quite right. What he needs to do is to make it absolutely clear to everybody that if this all ends in disaster in Ukraine, it's a disaster he doesn't. It's Biden's disaster. It's Europe's disaster. It's not his. He was never in favor of this war.

In the first place, if he'd been president, the war would never have happened, about which he is probably right, by the way. And that's the message Trump needs to relentlessly communicate and persuade people to listen to. and to accept. And I think he's base, by the way, the people who voted for him are pretty receptive to that message.

So it's not a difficult message to sell. Anyway, that's Trump. I mean, it's not adding very much to what you have to say. Germany's, I mean, I think Germany's pretty much screwed in exactly the way that you said. I mean, we're looking at an economic situation in Germany, which is starting to look irreversible.

Merz himself, as I said, has a sort of, I mean, I find a slightly crazed quality about him when it comes to Russia. But you're quite right. I mean, it's the only thing now that holds Germany, or at least the political system together, is to talk all the time about war with Russia. I can't believe that they really want a war with Russia. The effect on Germany of such a war would be absolutely disastrous. And I can't believe that they really believe that in a war with Russia, over Ukraine, for example,

the United States would really want to be involved. So I can't think that that's really their aim. But they want to talk about a war with Russia because it's the one way that the political system there can retain some degree of credibility and control in Germany itself, because in all other respects, everything is going horribly and terribly and disastrously wrong. And unless you talk about war with Russia all the time, you start facing questions about Nord Stream, about sanctions, about the decision to embark on the rearmament program about all of those things. Now, there is pushback in Germany. There are increasing numbers.

of people within the CDU, that's the ruling party, who are becoming increasingly critical about this policy. And the SPD, the coalition partner, Olaf Schultz's party, is now looking like it's splitting. So you're getting a fairly strong faction within the SPD, saying enough's enough, we've got to find some way of getting back into some kind of dialogue with Russia. So there is pushback, and we're not even including the IFDA and the BSW and the Lienke and all of those people who remain critics of this. But the predominant policy in Germany continues to be the one that Mautze is following, the one which the Greens support, the one which the hardline faction, the SBD, also supports,

which is maintain the conflict with Russia. Indeed, if anything, intensify it to distract the people away for, at least you hope you distract the people away from all the other problems that you have in the German economy. And of course, it's the perfect country to blame for everything as well. Absolutely. And it also justifies you taking steps inside Germany, like if you want to ban the IFD, you can do this on the grounds that you've got a national emergency because you're facing a conflict with Russia and the IFDA are the enemy within. Censorship, all of those things. Exactly. Yeah, and it probably helps that you have Ursula Vandrelayne who pretty much takes the same line

as German. Even though she doesn't get along with Mertz, they pretty much have the same policy when it comes to Russia and keeping the war going as a tool for distraction. Exactly. And in maths's case, I'm getting the sense anyway that at some level he believes this. I mean, he seems to need to be one of these people who never really changed his mind about Russia. He formed his views in the 80s when he embarked on policies. I think he's always been very anti-Russian and I think he continues to be. Yeah, I think Merz believes it. I think Ursula believes it as well and Kaya Kallis also believes it. But when it comes to the EU, like Ursula and Kaya Kallis, maybe Mertz is the same way. But for them, it's about believing that Russia is this huge threat and we have to fight Russia. But there's also that element of the funds.

For them, it's very important to keep this going because it's all about the funds of the money. I mean, maybe Germany is the same way because they need to keep this going. so they could justify the big borrowing and spending that they're about to embark on as well. I mean, it is about money. I absolutely think it is. I mean, I think that there is a genuine hostility to Russia, virulent hostility to Russia. But I think it also goes along, as it always does, with very cynical calculations of self-interest, keeping control, getting the money out there, using the crisis to restructure German society

and the German economy benefiting all of Mautz's former friends at Black Rock and all of those sort of institutions. I absolutely think that Mance is perfectly capable of thinking in that way. People who align their prejudices with their interests are very common and they're very dangerous. Yeah. Okay, we will end the video there. The durand. Dot Locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Britishw Telegram, Rockfinitex. Go to the Durand Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. Link is in the description box down below. Take care.