The Duran Podcast - Erdogan arrests rival. Has Erdogan gone too far?

Episode Date: March 27, 2025

Erdogan arrests rival. Has Erdogan gone too far?

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Turkey. Erdogan has arrested the mayor of Istanbul, Imam Moglu, and he was going to be running for president in 2008. Many people believe that he would have won the elections, though we are talking about three years off, but still, he's very popular. He is the rising politician, Erdogan. He's been around for a long time. And I do have to say Erdogan, with each passing year, does look more frail in his appearance. So you have that factor there as well. But it looks like Erdogan has decided, you know, it's three years off.

I'm secure in my position, or at least I feel like I'm secure in my position right now. I've just completed a coup in Syria. and so I might as well pull the trigger and arrest Imamoglu, the main rival for his AKP party. This is triggered protests in Istanbul and Ankara in many cities across Turkey, but Erdogan is not backing down. He remains firm in his decision to remove Imaoglu. And there is a type of question-marker scandal that Erdogan, that Erdogan, is pushing out there or did push out there about Imamoglu before he arrested him, which was that even if he wanted to run for presidency, his candidacy would be rejected

because he did not obtain a diploma in the right way. And there is that kind of question mark. I don't think we need to get into that in this video. But that's how all of this initially started. He didn't qualify for the candidacy because of his diploma, question mark. but now it's snowballed into an outright arrest. Anyway, your thoughts on what is happening in Turkey. You described the situation very well.

Now, I mean, with Erdogan, I mean, the fundamental truth about Erdogan is he doesn't accept rivals. He's never comfortable with rivals. The fact that Imamoglu is the mayor of Istanbul, which is, of course, Turkey's biggest city, which was also once Erdogan's own political base must be for him particularly infuriating. So it's perhaps unsurprising that he's acted to get rid of him, Malmoglu, from his point of view.

It's not just that this man is a political rival and a challenge, but the fact that he's running Istanbul is a kind of personal insult to the one. At least that's probably how he feels about this. So he's acted. And of course, I'm not going to try and judge the truth or falsity of any of the claims that have been made about Imam Moglu. They might all be true for all I know. But the point is that's not why he's been arrested. He's been arrested and he's going to be prevented from standing in the

election because he is popular. He is a real potential. challenger to Erdogan or to whoever Erdogan eventually selects as his ultimate successor. Not that I think Erdogan is the kind of person who thinks much about successes. I also going to say this, I think that the political situation in Turkey anyway actually, or Turkey's political situation is in fact looking more fragile in the sense that the economy isn't doing especially well, it hasn't been for a while now, the Syrian adventure appeared to have spectacular success in December with Assad's fall and Al Jalani's victory. But we see that all kinds of problems have started to develop as a result of all of this. So, Erdogan may be saying to himself,

Well, look, some things are now working to my advantage. I've developed a good relationship with Trump and a very successful telephone call with Trump. At least that's what Steve Wickoff, Trump's friend tells us. So I've got Trump backing me. It looks as if I've been able to, at least for the time being, sort out the Kurdish problem. Ocho-lan, the Kurdish leader, who's in Turkish prison, has apparently told the PKK and all the others to lay down their arms, whether that will really happen remains to be seen. The Kurdish militia in Syria have said that they will accept integration into the Syrian armed forces, which are, of course, Al Jolani's armed forces.

So in some ways, things at the moment are going in. Erdogan's favor. But overall, the situation is quite fragile. So seize the moment, get rid of Imam Mowlo, bring Istanbul back under control, ride out the protests, and Erdogan never backs down in front of protests. He always unleashes the police against them. He's absolutely going to take a very hard line against them. He probably feels secure in the sense that he's purged all the institutions in Turkey, the military, the judiciary. They're all now reliably work for him, or so he thinks. So see off these protests. Yes, we'll probably get a few weeks of protests, but in the end they will fade out. And then I'm in a secure position for the next three years and I can pick my

successor, if that's what I intend to do, or I can stand for elections again, and my position will be stable. So I think that's his calculation. Now, in Turkey, you can never be absolutely certain. I mean, there's an awful lot of protests. There's a lot of people who are very, very angry. And I think there's a widespread sense now that, well, I think this sense has developed for a very long time, that Erdogan is somebody who, far from respecting the Constitution or the legal system, basically has distorted it and makes it serve himself. So, I mean, within Turkish, middle class, educated society, I think there's quite a lot of opposition to Erdogan now, probably more than there has been, at other moments of his rule.

But my own sense is that he still has a critical level of support within Turkey. I think he's probably right that despite the fragilities, things for the moment are looking a bit more stable for him. So he sees the moment and I think this gamble probably will succeed. But one can never be completely sure. Yeah, well, you know, we've, we've been saying for years now, everyone, everyone has been saying for years, this is, this is it for Erdogan. He's gone too far. He's, he's messed things up now. He's, he's on his way out. We even had a coup in 2016 as well, which failed. But he keeps on surviving. He survives and he thrives. And it does seem as if at the moment, Outside of the European Union, he does have the support of the international community. I say that it's not only Russia, it's not only the United States, but it's also Russia

that appears to be backing Erdogan. At least that's how it looks. The European Union has come out and said he's an authoritarian and he's overstepping, but this is coming from the European Union that has canceled elections in Romania. So no one really cares what the European Union thinks about when it comes to elections. They have no credibility. But they're the only ones, it seems, that are calling out Erdogan. Everyone else seems to be backing him.

What are your thoughts there? Well, that's absolutely right. But can I just also say that I think if you're talking about Turkey itself, internal politics in Turkey, I think there's also a great deal of disenchantment and resentment towards the European Union there. And I think criticism of him coming from the Europeans has consistently worked to his advantage. Now, that's a think of fact which just, you know, I would just mention. But I think you're absolutely right. I mean, at the moment, this is another reason I think why he's picked the moment to do this thing.

He senses that international backing for him is strong. The Russians want good relations with him. want Turkstream to keep functioning. They don't want him to open the Black Sea to NATO warships. They have a longstanding, strong relationship with Turkey that they built up during the period of his rule. Not coincidentally, if you think this is a coincidence, then I have another of my bridges to sell you. Not coincidentally, Turkey has just announced today that they're on the verge of solving the problem with the use of meerkards in Turkey. So, you know, they, he keeps the Russians on side. He keeps the Americans on side. He's managed to bring Turkey into a kind of associate

relationship with the bricks, he's friends with Trump. There really isn't a feeling around the world that anybody wants to see him go. Because nobody knows what would take over in Turkey, who would take over in Turkey, if he were to leave the scene. And everybody's worried that if he does go, it could open. the possibilities of a major Turkish realignment or perhaps even greater instability in Turkey, which nobody wants to see. So I think that in many places in Moscow, for example, they don't perhaps particularly like the other one. I could tell you for the fact that they don't.

But he is the devil they know. He's the devil they've learned to work with. And they would prefer that he was there than that he was replaced by someone else. Yeah, and the EU would like him to go because a lot of people in the EU are very upset with Erdogan because he continuously extorts money from the European Union billions and billions of euros every year so that he can not unleash the migrants, the refugees that he's holding in Turkey and in northern Syria. So he always threatens the refugees, sending the refugees into the European Union, and the European Union pays him billions and billions every year. in order to hold those people in Turkey.

So they absolutely do not like Erdogan because of this. But, you know, do the Europeans matter anymore? I think that's the question that you answered. So you think on balance he'll probably make it out of this crisis. Yes. Probably. Yes. I think so.

I mean, Turkey has a history of political instability. I mean, you know, I've lived through it. You've lived through it. We've seen that happen. I mean, there was a major coup, for example. In 1980, there was a political crisis, but almost a civil war in Turkey just before. And then there was a coup. And then there was all kinds of governments that came and went, and the military were in control.

And then Erdog 1 came. And he stabilized the situation and concentrated power in himself. He is the only institution left in Turkey. now. I mean, he personally. And I think that given that that is so, given the way in which the entire Turkish system basically revolves around him, I think, and the fact that there is still a, there is still a strong political base in Turkey which supports him. I mean, the, you know, the Islamic clergy still support him. I think he will be able to pull this off. And I think a lot of people in Turkey also are nervous of the instability that might come if he were to go. I mean, the thing to understand about Turkey is that it's a kind of quasi-monarchical, fairly authoritarian system. But it's not an outright dictatorship.

I mean, you don't have the kind of, you know, constant arrests, terror, all that kind of thing. that you might find in some other places. And the Turkish economy reels one problem with inflation to another, the lira collapses and then it stabilizes and then it collapses again. Prices rise. But nonetheless, it still manages to keep ticking along and to keep going. So there aren't enough reasons to alienate his electoral base to the point where it would turn against him and would cause him critical problems. So I've been looking at the pictures of the protests in Istanbul and Ankara. My sense is that this is, again, the sort of more secular, affluent Turkish middle class, which has never been particularly keen on Erdogan.

And I think that probably Erdogan will manage to, you know, get through this. But there's always risks. He is taking risks with Turkey's internal stability. In fact, over time, he's undermining Turkey's stability because he's not taking creating strong institutions that will be there for Turkey when he's gone. On the contrary, he is constantly weakening Turkey's institutions. And there's always a chance, an outside chance, that this could gain traction to the point that the crisis becomes more existential for Erdogan.

his regime, but to be honest, I don't think so. Yeah, you always wonder, when is it, when is he going to make the mistake that finally ends his, his career in politics? You know, when is he going to make that, that mistake that that does him in? Well, well, he hasn't made it yet. He hasn't made it. Maybe this one might be it. Maybe this one might be it, but what I would say that is that Odoin does have an understanding of Turkey and of its politics and of the feeling of its people, which no other, political leader in Turkey in my lifetime has done. So he may do strange and unusual and wild and reckless things sometimes in the way that he manages his international relations. But in Turkey, he has

always consistently come out the winner. I mean, he understands Turkey and, you know, the Turkish mind, I think. very well. And I think he'll pull through this one again. I think we perhaps all to accept the fact I mean, I'm not saying it's definite, but the possibility that in fact he will always remain there and that he'll eventually die in office. And I agree he does look fragile, a bit more fragile physically every year. He looks more tired, more run down. There's all sorts of rumors that he's got health, undisclosed health problems, which everybody knows what seems to know what they are. But, you know, he might be there and he might even die in office or at least in control. Who's to say?

And then, of course, the real problems in Turkey could begin because he's undermined the institutions in Turkey to such an extent. He's distorted the politics there to such an extent that it's very unclear to someone like me looking at Turkey from the outside, what will take his place. Yeah, agreed. All right, we will end the video there. They're durand.locs.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey,

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