The Duran Podcast - Erdogan makes move to rebuild trust with Putin

Episode Date: August 11, 2023

Erdogan makes move to rebuild trust with Putin

All right, Alexander, let's talk about a possible meeting between Erdogan and Putin. And this follows on the prisoner release, the commander, Asov prisoner release from Erdogan, which took place about a month ago, a month and a half ago. And now we have, and then Erdogan went to Vilnius and according to various Western media outlets, Biden promised him IMF money. Erdogan wanted F-16, one of the F-16 deal reinstated. And now we have the conclusion to all of this, all of this back and forth between Turkey, NATO, Turkey, the U.S., Erdogan Biden. We now have Erdogan going back to Putin and requesting a meeting. What is going on here?

they had a telephone call and the Russian readout actually when you read it is actually quite stiff so it wasn't a particularly friendly call the clue to that is one of the last words of the last sentence in which

Erdogan thanks the Russian people and leadership for their support during the you know the earthquake and all that and of course probably

Erdogan thanked Putin personally, but Putin wasn't going to accept Erdogan's personal thanks, so the Russians watered it down to thanking the Russian people and the Russian leadership. In other words, Putin and Erdogan are not really friends, because that's what that really tells us. So, you know, it was a rather stiff call. But again, going back to a point you made on a video we did a short time ago you know at the time of the Vilnius meeting Erdogan agreeing to Sweden joining NATO shortly after he'd agreed to Finland joining NATO the release of the as-off commanders to Ukraine breach of promises that talk about entering into military agreements with the Ukrainians the support for Ukraine's NATO membership bid all of the

those things. You said at the time that Erdogan knows that at the end of the day, this relationship between Turkey and Russia is so important for the Russians too, that he feels, he believes that he can somehow manage the relationship with the Russians. He can go up to a certain point, if provided he doesn't go too far and stops, he can can retrieve things with the Russians. And this is what he's trying to do. So he's trying to retrieve things with the Russians.

He's called Putin. It's clear that it was he called Putin. He's been trying to speak to Putin for days, by the way. Putin finally answered the call. They've agreed on a meeting, but they've not said where that meeting will be. Erdogan very much wants it to happen in Turkey. Putin says it might have to be in Russia. There's been no agreement about that.

But we'll see. I mean, it could be in Turkey. can see why Putin might actually want to go to Turkey. But that's another story. Anyway, so there's going to be this meeting. Meanwhile, the Russians have said that instead of a gas hub in Turkey, they're now talking about a gas exchange in Turkey. They're talking about setting a gas hub in Iran.

instead they're talking to Egypt a country with which Erdogan has a very prickly relationship about establishing more close connections with Egypt that Egypt should be the country that basically resells Russian grain instead of Turkey you can see that the Russians have been putting a certain amount of pressure on Erdogan Erdogan doesn't like that so he's trying to get this meeting set up he wants to try and

sort things out with Putin he says that he wants Putin to agree to restore the grain deal I doubt that Putin will be very accommodating on that one by the way but that's what Erdogan wants I think eventually there will be a meeting

I think they will align out most of their differences I think that again the two have a certain grudging respect for each other. I don't think they particularly like each other, but they know they must work with each other. And I think that one way or another,

this incredibly complicated and very difficult relationship will be put back on track. But I think that's what Erdogan wants, and I think from Putin's point of view, from Russia's point of view, Turkey is still useful. It keeps the Black Sea closed. prevents Western warships entering the Black Sea.

It's also a place which Russians can travel to and use the Mirk card. There were problems with that a few months ago, but apparently that's been sorted out. It's also a country where you can actually buy goods, Western goods. Russians can buy Western goods, which can't be acquired so easily in other places which the Russians can't get directly because of the sanctions. So from a Russian point of view, Turkey remains too useful to give up on, but as I said, there's a coolness in the relationship which one will want to allay.

Right. Yeah, Turkey doesn't want to give up on Russia. Russia doesn't want to give up on Turkey. Each of them has interests in the other for the reasons that you just outlined. what's going to be the US's reaction to this meeting between Putin and Erdogan? They're not going to be happy because, of course, they know. They understand also the game that Erdogan is playing with them. So I think they're probably equally frustrated with Erdogan, as undoubtedly the Russians are.

But just as the Russians value the relationship with Turkey, because they gain, quite a lot from it. The same is true. The US, they need Turkey. They need Turkey to get Sweden into NATO, for example. I mean, that isn't yet a fully done thing. They need Turkey to remain within

NATO so that the United States can still operate its base at in Shilik and do other things like that. They need Turkey to continue to provide some support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia over things like the grain deal.

And of course, Turkey anyway, is a very important member of NATO. I think it's the second biggest army in NATO. So from the US, they may not be happy with Erdogan. They may not be happy with this meeting between Putin and Erdogan. But I think they've worked out now that the relationship between Russia and Turkey, so long as Erdogan remains in office, will only go so far that Erdogan. Underwan is as interested in keeping his relationship with the US going as he is in keeping his relationship with the Russians going. So the Americans won't be happy.

They will be grinding their teeth privately, be very frustrated with what Erdogan is doing. They failed in their attempt to oust him during the election because that's what they were trying to do. They have to live with him. And for the time being, they'll just have to back off. Yeah, you talked about the gas hub that was being planned between Russia and Turkey. I imagine that gas hub will come into operation eventually. But do you think the Russians now are going to hedge away a bit from putting so much energy power into Turkey? I mean, do you think Erdogan kind of blew it from the standpoint that he was going to be the sole point of energy export?

from east to west and now it looks like the russians may may diversify a bit as far as uh who they're going to work with to provide that that energy to yes to europe or to western nations absolutely because of course what's also happened and this is i think something that um edouan would not have predicted is of course iran and saudi arabia have now had their rapprochement so there is now an open road to create a gas hub in Iran, link it up with Saudi Arabia, transit it through Egypt, you can build pipelines, you can do all kinds of things. It's not so difficult to build pipelines,

as people think, by the way, especially in this part of the world, where pipeline infrastructure, to a great extent, already exists. You can do all of this through Iraq, through wherever. And Egypt might potentially be an attractive alternative. Egypt and Russia have very friendly relations and of course Egypt

is dependent on Russia for its food so it's got the Russians have a certain leverage there so from a Russian point of view there is this alternative and the fact that they're now talking about creating a gas hub with Iran is going to unnerve

Erdogan a little he's got good relations with Iran but they're not absolutely solid and of course the gas hub in iran is probably more about channeling gas to it to the east to india and such places but the option of bringing creating a spur to go to to egypt with the Saudis perhaps also involved is there so of course the thing is becoming more complicated or rather more the Russia's options are growing. And the thing about, you know, quietly saying, you know,

it's not going to be a gas hub, it's going to be a gas exchange. Of course, that doesn't really mean anything. They will still want the gas hub in Turkey. But it was a warning shot to Erdogan. Don't push us too far. We do have alternatives. We don't need to work purely through you. We can work with the Iranians and the Saudis and the Egyptians.

And I think that Erdogan will have taken notice. A final question. What do you think Erdogan actually gained from this stunt? I mean, I'm thinking right now, going back in my mind a bit from a month or two ago when this news broke. And Erdogan released the Azov commanders. And then he said, okay, to Sweden entering NATO, the Vilnius summit, meetings with Biden. And, you know, since then, I don't think there's been much progress with the F-16 negotiations. I don't know.

I haven't been following the story too closely. But I'm not sure if there's been, like, real progress made there. I know Biden promised the IMF loans, but I don't think that's come through. Something like 10 or 12 billion in loans is what Biden promised Erdogan. And then you had the whole talk about Erdogan and Turkey being rewarded with EU accession talks. Well, the EU has come out on multiple occasions and said there is no chance whatsoever in a gazillion years that Turkey's going to ever enter the EU. And why would Turkey want to enter the EU?

The EU is falling apart. So it doesn't make any sense why Turkey would want to enter a falling apart, a collapsing union. But would Edouad get out of all of this? He's got exactly nothing. I mean, the only thing he perhaps might get is the IMF. So that will, of course, come with conditions, which he might not like, and it's the kind of thing that he once swore that he would never do. So, you know, bear that in mind. But he might get some money.

But, you know, what is $11 billion, given the financial problems, the Turkish economy phases? Erdogan's Turkey can go through that amount of money in just a few weeks. So, I mean, it's not even that much in the end. In my opinion, he got nothing. he likes to do these things he likes he he does this

compulsively he plays one side off against the other thinks that he can get something from each in fact he would be much more wise to establish

a reputation with one side or the other as a steady reliable partner and he's got a potentially very good relationship with the Russians.

Very, I mean, a much more helpful relationship than the one with the US or with Europe is. I mean, the Europeans are just a lost course because the Europeans, I mean, they're not, as you said, they're never going to include Turkey in the EU. I mean, that's never going to happen. So,

arguably, his best course would be to consolidate his relationship with the Russian. and with the Chinese and with other countries. But he can't bring himself to tie himself down and to do that. And one of the effects is that, you know, everybody deals with him, everybody works with him, everybody has a grudging respect for him. Nobody particularly likes him. I was talking to a person from China, for example, quite recently.

and this person was telling me that in China they don't like Erdogan at all again they have to work with him but they don't like him I mean you know he's on the one hand he wants to do deals with them on the other hand he meddles in Xinjiang province

supports Turkish and Muslim speaking people there who are in conflict with the Chinese authorities the Chinese again grind their teeth and accept it, but at a personal level, apparently they don't like him.

Yeah, he went through all of this stuff a couple of months ago and nothing really came out of it. No, the thing that really, the thing that really annoyed the Russians, and I think this is important to say, is not Sweden's admission to NATO, which I think the

Russians always calculated that the one would probably agree to. It was the release of the Azov commanders, because Erdogan had made what the Russians understood to be a cast iron pledge that those people would not be returned to Ukraine. And I think the Russians were infuriated when they were. And the one thing that Vladimir Putin himself really doesn't take kindly to is when people break their word to him. So I think that was actually a big mistake on Erdogan's part. Yeah.

And once again, it's the third time I'm saying it, he gained nothing out of it. He gained nothing. Absolutely nothing. No. No. Or at least nothing of real substance. No. No.

But, you know, that's Erdogan. I mean, he is what he is. I mean, you know, it's, there's the famous story about, you know, the scorpion, you know, doing a piggyback on. I can't remember what it was, which animal it was. On the frog. The frog. Exactly. Crossing the river.

Yeah. the river and, you know, suddenly stings the frog and they both drown and the frog says, why? And he says, because it's my nature. And that's hurt of once nature. Yeah. All right. We'll leave it there.

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