The Duran Podcast - EU sanctions addiction, seizing Russian ships

Episode Date: February 1, 2026

EU sanctions addiction, seizing Russian ships

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the sanctions addiction of the European Union. We have a 20th sanctions package, which is coming up in about two, three weeks. I believe February 24th or 25th is when the sanctions package against Russia, the 20th sanctions package against Russia is being put together. And they say it's going to be the strongest sanctions package yet. They're going to target the shadow fleet. They've already passed some sort of laws or policies to go after Russian money laundering, I believe, is what they're going after. And then we have the sanctions against Iran as well from the European Union.

Actually, not even say, well, sanctions, but also categorizing the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard. as a terrorist organization, which effectively means that the European Union is not going to be able to engage in pretty much any diplomacy with Iran, to be quite honest now. Even though they were part, European countries were very much part of the JCPOA and guaranteeing the JCPOA. I mean, that's it. The Europeans have now removed themselves from the diplomatic game when it comes to Iran. And actually, Kyakales were very proud of that fact.

She said, you know, the diplomacy will still be there. No big deal that we're categorizing the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. Don't worry everybody. We'll still be able to engage a diplomacy. She's clueless. Anyway, your thoughts. Which one do you want to cover first? Well, let's talk about Russia.

I mean, 19 sanctions packages. This is now going to be the 20th. Attacks on Russian oil exports, because this is really now what they're trying to do, on the shadow fleet, which is increasingly, by the way, I mean, it's becoming, I mean, there was never any reality to calling it to Shadowfleet at all, as we pointed out many times. The only thing that made these ships, Shadow Fleet ships, was the fact that they were not insured in London. Now, that's already, I mean, obviously still the case. I mean, all of these ships still continue to have insurance, even if they're not getting it in London.

But the other thing that they've been talking a lot about now is flags. But the Russians are re-registering a lot of these ships, and they're making them Russian merchant ships. And they're raising Russian flags, and they're increasingly starting to do that. And the Russians are, of course, giving these ships naval escorts, not, you know, big battleships or nuclear submarines or all of that. but these small frigates which are military and can play a military role and which are actually, you know, to sort of, this is the sort of thing that they're probably the right to do that. So the European Union is now going to try to impose more of these sanctions, more of these restrictions. There's talk increasingly, as a sort of seizing ships on the high seas, but the legalities of that. are, to put it, partly questionable.

And it opens up the way for a clash with the Russian Navy. The only realistic way this can be done is if the Americans come on board, because the Europeans are not capable of taking on the Russians in any military format by themselves. And to be blunt, I don't think the Americans have any appetite for this. they released the sailors from the marinera. They consistently shown a reluctance to engage the Russians directly in conflict in any scenario, openly and directly in conflict. So I can't see how this can work.

And even if it does work, it can only work up to a point because the Russians, there's obviously the logistics, there's the various ships. There's the ports, there's the refineries, all of these things which are oriented towards Russian westward, western ports, but there's now pipelines starting to send Russian oil to China. There's also ships in the Arctic, in the Far East. Gradually over time, the Russians will be able to divert their trade there, and they have the resources, the economic resources to absorb this. and it's now quite clear that Asian buyers are not going to stop buying Russian oil.

To the extent that this is successful, all it can ever do is raise the oil price and given that Russia will remain a big oil producer, probably whatever the Russians lose in the swings in terms of difficulties using sending ships through the Baltic and the Black Sea, which I don't myself expect to happen. Whatever happened then, in that respect, the Russians would probably win back on the roundabouts because the oil price would be higher than it otherwise would be. The West, the Europeans still continue to massively overestimate the importance of the energy sector in the Russian economy and to the budget. They assume that this is somehow the silver bullet and it is not.

We've discussed this in many programs, and we're not going to go over this now. All I will say is this. 19 sanctions packages. None of them have worked. Another 20th sanctions package. And it's escalation. They are doing things which now open, I mean, the early sanctions packages, yes, some of them were legally very question. freezing Russian assets, central bank assets, very questionable, an attack on sovereign state

immunity. But they were basically restrictions in trade, in terms of trade between Russia and the West and also restrictions on Russians using Western platforms, like Swift, for example. Now, what they're doing is they're trying to interfere in Russia's overseas trade with countries that are not involved in this conflict, which are not Western. And that is an extraordinarily dangerous thing. And that is a very massive escalation. And is one which some of those countries, Germany, for example, have shown that they might be perfectly capable of engaging. in countermeasures over. Well, the European Union does this because Russia's response over the 19 sanctions package

has not been, according to the European Union, has not shown any pushback. I mean, that's why they press on because they feel like, like, you know, Russia is not able to respond or is too timid to respond or is too afraid to respond. This is what the Europeans are probably thinking in Brussels. And you've got to remember, these people, they live in a bubble. They live in a bubble and they read the Kiev Independent and the BBC and the Washington Post, and that's pretty much all they know. And then they talk to each other.

That's it. So they're thinking to themselves, well, you know, we'll continue to press on. Russia is not going to push back on anything that we do, even if we escalate to the point of seizing ships. because Russia's afraid. Their economy's falling apart. Their military is about to collapse. Just one more sanctions package and another sanctions package. So I think that a lot of this is Russia just not responding in any meaningful way. Perhaps for Russia, it's silly or a waste of time to respond, but I don't think so. We're getting to a point where the escalation is becoming dangerous. And Russia is going to be put in a position where,

going to have to respond. I mean, what if you get to the point where you do have Finland and Estonia, for example, cutting off passage from the Baltic Sea? They've talked about it many times. They've discussed it openly many times, yeah. But you see, we have had responses. This is the trouble. It's just that they don't want to see them. Firstly, if we're talking about the overall package of sanctions. The Russians have taken action. First of all, they have reorganized their economy, which has massively mitigated against the effect of the sanctions. Nobody even disputes that anymore. They have taken action against Western assets in Russia. Now, you know, I've had contacts with Western business people and shareholders and some of these Western companies.

they have been affected. The Russians have also taken action to protect their shipping. We had an instance when the Estonians harassed a ship, a ship in the Baltic, and the Russians put up Suhoi 35 fighters and drove the Estonians away. We've also had other situations now where the Russians have been providing naval escorts for merchant ships which trade with Russia, and the Russians are now raising their flags, having these tankers, these ships, these third-party ships that register in Russia and raise Russian flags. So it is not true to say that the Russians aren't responding. What the Europeans are saying to themselves is, we can go on doing this because so far the Russians haven't attacked us.

But, you know, the paradox, the absurdity of that is that even as they say that, they also complain that the Russians have attacked them. You know, there's been all these drones that supposedly cross into Poland, drones that supposedly cross into Europe. So they're saying to themselves, all kinds of different things, all at the same time. And of course, if the Russians are pushed and there are clashes in the high seas, then of course it will become incredibly dangerous. And to repeat again, the Russians have said, we will protect our ships, we will send

our warships. We are already deploying our warships to protect our ships. So it's not actually true that the Russians haven't been doing anything. that they haven't been seeking escalation because it hasn't suited them to up to now. Doesn't mean that they haven't been reacting. And what the Europeans in effect are saying is that they want to invite Russian escalation against themselves, even as they're pretending, they're at the same time telling us that it's already been happening. I mean, the messaging from the Europeans has become extraordinarily incoherent over the last couple of months.

Well, they want that escalation to happen because they believe it's happening with all the drones and all of this nonsense, but they believe there is an escalation happening. And so they want to fulfill that prophecy, right? They're saying, let's do our best to get the Russian escalation. And when they don't see the Russian escalation, it's another sanctions package, followed by another sanctions package. And they just keep on pushing and pushing until they can. get that escalation. Eventually, you're going to push too much. Yes.

And something's going to happen. But the other benefit for the Europeans and for NATO is that if they do get that escalation, then they can run to the United States and they could run to Daddy Trump and they could tell Trump. You see, Russia's threatening us or Russia's done this to us. Yes. And they know this. Yes. So in a way they're trying to get Russia to escalate, not only so that they can prove to prove their delusion. Yes. Yes. But to also. get the United States to further commit. Yes. The other thing, of course, that they're not taking into account is that the very real possibility, because you see, they're not just interfering in Russia's trade. They're interfering in the trade of other countries. China, India, whatever. There is also a, there is also now real possibility that this could provoke escalation

from these other countries, too. that the Chinese, because of these various other actions that the United States has been taking, have become increasingly reliant upon Russian energy imports. And this isn't just, you know, it's becoming something. I'm not saying that China is fully dependent on it, but it's becoming so reliant upon it that losing these imports of, Russian oil would be concerning and difficult for China. China has shown that it has every capacity to escalate back if he chooses. Again, I don't think that this is something that Europeans take

into account or fully understand. But you're absolutely right. Ultimately, if this goes on too far, there will be, there will have to be a Russian response, at which point, as I said, they will run off to the Americans. And then the Americans are, what will they demand that return Greenland? Maybe more. Maybe more. Okay. So Iran, Iran sanctions, as well as the designation of the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization from the EU. Yes. What exactly has Iran done to marry this? Well, it's about the protests. They say it's about all the protests and stuff. Yeah, I know. But I mean, you know, the whole situation, the reason there is an economic crisis in Iran is because of earlier rounds of sanctions.

I mean, this is not even something anybody can realistically challenge. Going all the way back to what was agreed in 2015, as you rightly said, Iran complied with the JCPOA, to which the Europeans were parties and guarantors. So, anyway, let's not, let's not. perhaps analyze this too closely. The point is that just a few days ago, the Europeans were complaining loudly about American aggressiveness towards them over Greenland. And now we see that they're cheering on American aggressiveness towards Iran. We should not forget that. What they are doing, obviously, is that they're showing to the Iranians that they're not

really, in any way, a reliable partner in any form, Iran until fairly recently, did hope to develop economic relations and trade relations with Europe. Assuming the Iranian government survives this and comes through, I would have thought that these actions that the Europeans are taking will finally make the Iranians acknowledge that the only way forward is through the brakes. Yeah, it also shows that the whole Greenland thing was indeed a lot of theatrics, because at the end of the day, what does Europe do? They do exactly what, or the EU, they do exactly what the United States tells them to do, which is to designate the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization and to place more sanctions.

They learn nothing from the whole Greenland thing, which to me indicates that a lot of the Greenland thing was, I don't want to say staged theatrics. But my sense is that if the European leaders could give Greenland to the United States while keeping the United States dedicated to NATO and not suffering any type of diplomatic blowback from it, they would have done it. I think the humiliation and the diplomatic fallout is what really worried the Europeans more than anything else. Absolutely. That's exactly true. That is exactly. That is precisely and exactly right. That's all it is with the Europeans.

Sooner or later, one way or the other, as we discussed during the Greenland saga, if Trump goes on demanding Greenland, they will give it to him. because in all other respects, they want to keep the NATO collective West's operation still going. It's their overriding obsessive priority. And that means agreeing to everything he says about Iran, for example, and cheering him on as he attacks that country. Well, they will do that to do. And going back to the Russians, they made the most excoriating criticism. of the Europeans that I've seen them make so far. This is over the course of a debate in the UN Security Council.

They said that Europe has completely lost its sovereignty, that it is now absolutely part of the American sphere and the American Empire. I believe they actually use that word. And this comes after a whole succession of extremely tough articles that appeared in the Chinese media, which have been saying the same thing. More and more countries, more and more people around the world, but certainly the other great powers, are seeing this. Europe has no sovereignty, no ability, no agency anymore.

It just does whatever the Americans tell them. Well, it's obvious. I don't think anyone's going to be... I don't even think Europeans are going to argue that fact of people in Brussels, Brussels HQ. I don't think they're going to argue that fact with you either. I think they're actually proud of it. They're proud of it.

They wanted this way. They want to be vassals of the U.S. Exactly. I think it was Bart de Viva, the Belgian prime minister. He put it best. They want to be happy vassals. That is where they want to be. And if that means crushing Europe's economies, losing any degree of independence of action,

being frozen out of diplomacy with Iran, so be it. It's much more important to be heavy vassals of the United States and to tell yourself that you're still part of this great enterprise, then it is to be out there, truly independent, trying to find your own way, making your own decisions, and being responsible to your own people. This is the fundamental difference. This is the fundamental decision

that the European leaders have known. No, they all understand on a personal level, everybody in the European Union and all of the prime ministers and presidents. They understand the benefits of being part of the club and being members of this club, this globalist, political, elite, transatlantic club. And they don't want to lose that. They will never, they will never lose that. They don't know.

Sovereignty? For them, who cares about sovereignty or economic situation, whatever? whatever, people can't vote them out anyway. No. And they understand that as well. So for them, you know, it's so important to be carrying that card, which gives you membership into this transatlantic club, because eventually you are going to move on and you've got to think about your next position and the position after that.

And the one thing that the one strength that this group of people does have, this club does offer, is that it will take care of you forever. It will put you at some organization and some think tank. Look at Duda. Duda was going to be a podcaster. That didn't work out. So they put him at the Heritage Foundation. A cushy job at the Heritage Foundation.

Do nothing. They give him some title, whatever. I mean, they're going to take care of you. I mean, it really is a lifelong career path and a retirement plan for all of these people, president, prime minister, foreign minister, technocrat in Brussels, whatever. Exactly. Exactly. That's exactly correct.

That is exactly what it is. And in the meantime, a little business of war in the Middle East, well, we can absorb that. If the Americans do it, we'll cheer them on because, of course, the one thing we don't want is to rock the boat, create a situation where the Americas pull away the funding from the club, and we find ourselves absolutely out there in the cold. That's the one thing that the major European leaders and the vast network of people that props them up. It's the one thing they will never give up. That's the key word. Vass network and it is a huge network.

Yeah, absolutely. The NGOs, the think tanks, the media, all of it is a huge bureaucracy in Europe. In the EU is huge, it's massive. Yes. Yeah. Okay. We'll end the video there. the durand.locals.com. We are on X and Rumble and Telegram. We are also on substack. So check us out on substack and go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch, 26% off. There's a link in the description box down below. Take care.