The Duran Podcast - EU troops in Ukraine. Orban advises Trump

Episode Date: December 6, 2024

EU troops in Ukraine. Orban advises Trump

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Ukraine and let's talk about the peace initiative coming from the Trump administration, as well as from the European Union. It looks like the Kellogg Peace Plan or Peace Policy Document, as you outlined in one of your videos, an election policy document drafted in April. It looks like this plan has aligned with the EU's proposal for peacekeepers in Ukraine. So this is not a coincidence that the EU has aligned their plans and thoughts about a ceasefire and peacekeepers in Ukraine with Kellogg. Kellogg Flights's peace initiative that they put together in April. Obviously, they're trying to push Trump, the Trump White House, towards some sort of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine based on a conflict freeze. Anyway, what are your thoughts on what is going on in Ukraine? Yes, I think it's important to stress, first of all, that there is actually no Trump plan.

There's all kinds of ideas circulating in the European Union and in the media. And we're clearly now in an orchestrated, seeing an all-executive. orchestrated campaign, which is being pushed by various governments, EU governments, and by the EU Commission itself, and by various people in the United States. But I think there's another point that need to be made clear, first of all. There is no Trump plan as such. Trump has never announced a plan. He has appointed General Kellogg to be an envoy. But as of now, that is all Kellogg is. He's just an envoy. What people are doing is they're taking a document, an article actually, entitled a report that Kellogg, who has a longstanding relationship with Trump, co-authored with Flights, Fred Flights, back in April, which was essentially a critique of the politics.

of the Biden administration in Ukraine. Now, we've discussed Kellogg in a previous program. I've read this report since then carefully. And I think there's a number of points that need to be made clearly about it. First of all, this is not a report that made proposals exactly to Donald Trump. In fact, the most controversial proposal it made for a 10-year freeze on Ukraine's NATO membership was addressed to Biden. not to Trump at all. And it was done as part of a criticism of Biden and of the Biden administration's program or policies in Ukraine. And it's important to remember when this report was written. It was written in April of this year. In April, the election was still underway in the United States. In fact, it was only really just cranking up. At that time, Joe Biden,

was still the candidate or the expected candidate of the Democratic Party. And at that time also, the Russian offensive in Ukraine, which we have seen play out over the last few months, was still only in its infancy. Avdewka had just fallen a few weeks before. And Ochedegno, I think, had just been captured. but the narrative at that time was that the war was in stalemate. So if you put all that together, you can see that this document is basically already out of date. It's assuming a stalemate situation on the battlefronts and an incompetent management of the

war by a president who is trying to win re-election against the person that Kellogg and flights are supporting who is Donald Trump in an election which is now over and which Donald Trump won. So as I said, people are talking about something that actually is irrelevant or bears no relation to the situation that exists today. The Russian clearly on the offensive, they are within reach now of striking at the Dnieper, the Dnieper River, which they were not in April. There is no longer any talk about stalemate. It's accepted that the Ukrainian military is run down and exhausted. And Biden, of course, is only going to be president for another 48 days. So what the Europeans are trying to do, and this initiative, I think, comes very much from

Europe and to some extent from Britain as well, is that they're trying to take certain stray ideas that were set out in this report, jell them out into some kind of a supposed plan. The plan involves freezing the front lines, putting off NATO membership, and then flooding Ukraine, Western Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine west of the Dnieper, with tens of thousands of European troops, up to 100,000 according to the Russians. And this is not a plan to stabilize the front lines or even to freeze the war. It's really an attempt to get a European army into Ukraine and then dare the Russians to attack and then prepare the ground for the day when there will be a re-eut Ukrainian offensive eastwards or alternatively when the diplomatic pressure

will be piled up on the Russians in order to get them to withdraw. In other words, it's an attempt to win the war which is being lost militarily, diplomatically, and the Russians are not going to play for it. But it could also be a way to pull the US in, right? Absolutely. Absolutely. The European army, do the Europeans actually believe that they could take on the Russians, 100,000 troops too?

I mean, do you think they actually are that delusional that they believe their military has a chance against the Russian military in Ukraine? The short answer is that I think that some of them do. I think that there are some political leaders in Europe who do believe that. I think Macron does. I think Stama, believe it or not, might do so despite the well-known problems with the military in Britain. The difficulty is that we've talked in previous programs about narrative construction and the extent to which it's been created and built up, there's been constant narrative construction for the last three years that the Russian army

It's run down, incompetent, badly led, poorly trained, that it fights with shovels, that if it's winning the war in Ukraine, it's doing so at horrific losses because of overwhelming weight of numbers. That narrative is one that is being circulated all over the media in Europe, in the West, in the United States itself. And as we've discussed in many programs, the problem is that politicians take a lot of what they think they know from what they read in the media. Obviously, there are military people who are advising them. But certainly in Britain, I get the impression that whilst there is a significant section of the British military, which is horrified by this whole idea, absolutely understands fully.

well that it is in no condition to fight the Russian. There are some British officers at very senior levels who are being close to the politicians for a very, very long time and who are telling the politicians what they want to hear because they're worried for their jobs if they do. So I think that there is an element of this, but I think the wider story, the biggest story, is that, again, as you rightly say, even those European politicians who think that Europe really can take on the Russians in some form, what they're really up to, what their real game plan is, they get the European army into Ukraine, they go the Russians into a conflict. And then, of course, sooner or later, they are absolutely confident they're counting on the fact that, that the United States is going to have to become involved on their side and ride to their rescue. And that agenda does exist. I think Macron, who is, I think, more better informed about the military realities than Star Marys in Britain, for example.

I think he certainly thinks it that way. And I think there are a lot of others who think in that way also. So this is basically a plan to draw in and trap the United States. Yeah, and Macron believes that he can manipulate Trump. He can sweet-talk Trump. There's no doubt about it. There's one European leader that believes he still has a good relationship with Trump and can convince Trump to green light European troops into Ukraine.

It's Macron. Yes. A Stomer's relationship with Trump. It's off to a very, hasn't really started yet. Absolutely. It's not looking good given that Stammer put all his support behind Harris. Yes. And bear in mind, in mind, in Germany, if there's elections, and Friedrich Matz, as everybody expects, becomes Chancellor.

Mertz absolutely does believe that he's going to be in a position to forge a strong relationship with Trump. So, you know, it's not just going to be Macron. A new German government might take the same line. And, of course, there are other European leaders who probably feel or think the same way. the Polish leadership, which Poland has always stood high in Trump's affect. Trump has a sweet spot for Poland. Yeah, Trump has a soft spot for Poland. So I mean, I can easily imagine that they think that they can persuade Trump to do this.

And you know, they're going to make a big effort to do that. And you can see that in article after article all over the media, they're now writing as if this is going to be the proposal and as if Trump, Trump, who has said absolutely nothing up to this point, is in effect signed up to it. Yeah, and you have the situation in France, which is unfolding, which is not looking good, a government collapse, and Macron will definitely be looking for a distraction. Yeah. So I think this is the way things are going to unfold over the next three to six months.

Yes. This is how they're going to move forward. The Europeans, Kayakales, she was. She's a new foreign minister of European Union. She was in Kiev. She even said that the Europeans are actually discussing troops in Ukraine. I mean, they haven't made a decision yet, but they're discussing it. So this is where they want to move everybody, including the Trump administration, including the United States. Because at the end of the day, what is the European plan? The European plan is to get the United States, the U.S. military bogged down in Europe and bogged down in Ukraine.

That's their ultimate plan. They want the U.S. military to fight the Russians. That's what the European elite want. Yes. And they think that they're going to be able to convince Trump. There's a chance that they might. I mean, I believe that Trump's going to say no to this. No.

But I think that there is a possibility that if they pitch an idea to Trump, along with the Kellogg paper, let's call it a policy paper, along with the media, with the media pressure, that they might be able to sell this to Trump in a way which goes something like, it's going to be European troops. Don't worry, Trump, there's going to be no U.S. boots on the ground. It's just going to be European troops. Is that okay?

And it's not going to have anything to do with NATO. And this is something that could, there is that possibility that Trump could say, well, if there's going to be no U.S. boots on the ground, that it's just going to be Europe and there's no Article 5 implication for now, we know what the plan is. He might say, yeah. Well, this is exactly why I've always consistently said that the best thing that Trump could do would be to keep fully clear. He's getting drawn in.

The Ukraine thing, because they keep, there is the risk. They're trying to draw him in. They're trying to draw him in. And they're trying to get him drawn into discussions about lines and troops deployments and that kind of thing, which it is not in his interests to do, not in U.S. interests to do, which opinion polls now show the U.S. public strongly opposes, by the way the European public opposes them as well, opposes that as well, but these European leaders don't care about that.

They don't care about the European public, yeah. But Trump, who has become president again, because the American public believe him should at least care about what Americans think about this. But, you know, there is a real chance. And, you know, I don't know exactly who in the United States is advising Trump. But one person is advising Trump who is not American and who I hope is going to sort of dispel these illusions. And there are reports, and they seem to be true. They're appearing all across the Ukrainian media.

That there's been several telephone conversations now between Trump and Orban discussing a Ukrainian settlement. That Orban is basically telling Trump, he's been to Moscow, he's spoken to Putin, he's spoken to the Russians. The Russians are in an absolutely implacable mood. They're not interested in backing down or in making significant. significant concessions, and they are fully ready to keep going and have all the means that they need to keep the war going as well. And the Ukrainian media is saying that Trump told Orban, has told Orban that what Orban is telling him is in conformity with Trump's his own beliefs.

So we don't know about this in great detail. We don't know whether the full details of these conversations, but it does look as if there is one European leader who is actually talking to Trump himself and is trying to push back against these ideas. Now, I ought to say that going back to that article that Ebb Smith wrote about a year and a half ago in which he said that one of the great problems with negotiations that the West gets involved in is that the West spends all. its time negotiating with itself and pays very little attention to what the other side is saying. The Russians have been setting up their position extremely clearly. And yesterday, the Speaker of the Upper House of the Russian Parliament, Valentina Madh Vienko, who is also a member of the Security Council and who is known to be close to Putin. She made very clear what her understanding of the situation was. She said firstly that she thinks there will be negotiations next year,

though she didn't mention a ceasefire. But she also said that the Russians are not interested in temporary solutions, freezes or anything of that kind, and stopping on ceasefire lines. They're looking for a long-term, sustainable, definitive solution, which responds to their concerns, their security needs. And that has to be based on the proposals Putin made when he spoke to the foreign ministry back in June. And she also said that the Russians are not going to wait for Trump or Kellogg or anyone else and see what these people come up with. They're going to continue with a special military operation because experience has taught them that counting on what the Americans and the Europeans are going to say or do is simply not a good idea.

Now, I think all this needs to be taken seriously. And it's very troubling that people in the West are not paying any attention at all to the things that the Russians are saying at this time. No, they don't care what the Russians are saying. They never have. They never will. And that's the root of the problem. Well, that is the root of the problem.

But it's important to remember that at this time, going back to my comments at the start of our program, the Russians are clearly winning the war. Their army is in place. It is advancing westward. It is taking more territory all the time. It is closing in on various important cities. And it is coming within range of arriving at the east bank of the NEPA in central Ukraine. If you really are serious about negotiations, then you must listen to what the other side is saying if you're going to negotiate with them at all. The fact that they are not listening to them is a sign that the Europeans are not really serious about negotiations. It's not only that they're not listening. I have my doubts that this information even makes its way to Trump. Even Trump is president.

I have my doubts that he will get reports. accurate reports about the situation in Ukraine. I really have my doubts about that. Now, Tulsi Gabbard has DNI. Might be different. Might be different. Absolutely. I mean, she's going to be apparently in charge of his daily brief.

Exactly. But on the other side, you have Waltz, you have, Waltz, you have Rubio, you have guys floating around like Gorka. I'm not saying Gorka's going to be involved in the decision-making process with Ukraine. But you have all these people who have already stated their positions on Ukraine and what they think should happen, which is more escalation like Gorka, floating around the administration and talking about what the Trump White House should do. So, I mean, you know, I look at his foreign policy team and it looks like it's just Gabbard. She's pretty much all alone with a bunch surrounded by a bunch of hawks. Yes. Hawks who want to escalate.

Well, in it, or who cannot bring themselves to understand. So I read a very interesting article the other day, and I can't remember who it was who wrote here, but they overestimating, they're again overestimating the strength of the United States and assuming weakness on the side of Russia. Exactly, that they overestimating America's strength. He's clueless. He has no idea what's going on. He's no idea what's going on.

Exactly. Exactly. And they don't listen to what the Russians. are saying, as you correctly say, I doubt very much that anybody has briefed Trump about what Matvelyenko had said. I don't think Trump has probably ever heard of Matt Bianco. Very few people in the West have, even though she is actually a very senior Russian official who has been often involved in conducting foreign policy missions on Putin's behalf, particularly to the Gulf states in the Middle East.

And she is a member of Russia's Security Council. So she is actually somebody who is important. But I doubt that her words are being communicated to Trump. And I think that to the extent that all of these words that Russian officials are making are register in the West. They simply discounted as noise. People think, you know, just the Russians, they're simply talking in this way. But when we sit down and talk with them and we offer them this proposal and we offer them sanctions, relief and all of that,

well, of course, they'll put all that aside and they'll agree to what we want because that's what the Russians are. And I think that is completely and radically wrong. And I think that it might, you know, it's setting things up, you know, for a diplomatic debacle over the next few months. Constantine Malfaev, who is a person who I have strong feelings about, I think he's a Russian businessman who I have, you know, serious concerns about his role in Russian politics. But, you know, in some situations, he needs to be taken seriously. He's just given an interview to the Financial Times. And here's somebody who is in tune with thinking on the part of some people in the Kremlin, at least. And he said, straightforwardly, using very strong language, this proposal, these proposals that we are hearing about are simply not going to be acceptable in Moscow.

They will be rejected outright and right away. And that, I expect, is the position we're going to get. So, but the Ankoch, who is a senior official, talks in a measured way. Perhaps Malofaev, who talks in a much more coarse way, maybe that will cut through. I don't know. Well, I think the situation is going to play out with this freeze idea, this concept being presented to Russia, to Putin. And when Putin rejects it, it's going to return to Trump.

And he's going to be pushed to just go ahead and say, you know what, Putin is snubbing you or something like that. He's disrespecting you. And just let the European troops go into Ukraine, let them handle it. Trump is going to have to have to make the decision. It didn't pan out. There's this plan from Kellogg didn't work. Russia doesn't want it. I'm done.

That's going to be the correct decision for him to make. We're done. We tried. It didn't work. Europe, deal with it. But my fear is that they're going to appeal to Trump's ego and the narcissistic side of Trump's. Trump and the strength, the absolute dominance and strength of the United States as the unipolar

power. And they're going to say, you know, how dare Putin disregard your amazing, beautiful freeze plan and just let the Europeans go in and they'll handle it. And that's when if you're a European, if you're a globalist, if you're a Democrat, if you're a rino, that's when you know that you've won. Yeah. You've dismantled the Trump administration. You've got another Russia gate brewing, another Russia gate, Ukraine gate, whatever impeachment brewing. You've got another Putin puppet narrative ready to go. And you've bogged down the United States to project Ukraine. Exactly.

Piling in, sending more weapons to Ukraine, which the American people and the Pentagon don't want, sending more money to Ukraine, which Trump supporters in Congress do not want, tightening up the sanctions even further, which is going to cause more trouble and disruption in the global economy, which is going to push up inflation and affect living standards in the United States, pushed Trump in that direction, which is, of course, the direction they would want to go towards anyway. And at the same time, from their point of view, if that creates a crisis, and Trump's position becomes undermined will so much the better. Yeah.

All right. I'm really curious if someone has told Trump, the Trump administration, Vance, that not only is Russia winning, but they're defeating an entire NATO military that has given Ukraine just about everything that they could. I wonder if someone has actually told Trump. Trump, that this is the situation in Ukraine, that this is not only a victory, this is a massive defeat for NATO and for Europe. I mean, Germany, France, all the countries that have bet on Project Ukraine.

I mean, they've just been completely dismantled. Their economies, their militaries, everything, the UK. I wonder if someone has expressed this to him, has told them this. Well, we were in Hungary just 10 days ago. We met with all sorts of important people there. They seem to have a very realistic understanding of the situation. And we are told that Orban has been calling Trump. Perhaps, hopefully, Orban, who has never struck me as a person to hold back,

has been telling Trump all of these things. and Trump is said to respect Holborn and might be listening to him. The trouble is Trump has this enormous pride in the United States. He cannot, I think, quite bring himself to believe that if the United States really exerts itself, it can lose. And that's what I think all of these voices that are chattering around him are playing on. And they're also telling you something else, which is that if you aren't careful, you'll find yourself at the same position as Biden was. When Biden pulled out of Afghanistan, the whole country collapsed, or the people were being flown out on hanging onto the planes. It was disorganized, disorderly.

You don't want something like that to happen to you. And in order to avoid that happening, you've got to show that you're strong, put the Russian, in their place, then troops in or send European troops in, send more weapons to Ukraine, increase the sanctions, try to get the Russians to back down. And, of course, it's bad advice. The correct advice is, obviously, you don't want a disorderly collapse in Ukraine as we saw in Afghanistan. But then the way you avoid a disorderly collapse in Ukraine is,

by working with the Russians, not against them. Yeah, but how could you get an Afghanistan type of moment in Ukraine? I mean, the U.S. military, the military, not mercenaries, is not set up in Ukraine. Well, exactly. I mean, these are the differences which, you know, to you and me, are obvious. The people around Trump who want a further, a renewed commitment, and the Europeans will not be pointing out to the differences. They'll be pointing to the similarities. Untrue, those similarities actually are.

Yeah, it's such a simple solution for the Trump administration, to be honest, Ukraine, at least for Trump or for the United States, the solution is very simple. But it looks like there's an effort to push to complicate it. Exactly. To prolong it. Exactly. Exactly. Once again, the instincts of the American people are far ahead of those of the political leaders.

And if Trump is wise, he will go with the instincts of the people, not with the so-called experts that are hovering around you. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitchy, telegram, rock, fan, and X. Go to the Durant Shop, pick up some merch. You will find a link in the description box down below. Take care.