The Duran Podcast - European leaders escalate war rhetoric with Iran

Episode Date: August 17, 2024

European leaders escalate war rhetoric with Iran

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in the Middle East. The world appears to be on edge, waiting to see what the response from Iran is going to be, if there's going to be a response from Iran. And that's where we are. Axios and many Collective West publications, they were saying last week, 10 days ago, that the response from Iran was coming tomorrow. It's going to come tomorrow. It's going to come in two days.

Nothing. Nothing so far. And what we're getting is we're getting leaders of the collective West. Now using, I guess you could say, a bit of carrot and stick, though, more stick with Iran, sending letters to Iranian officials calling the Iranian president and warning not to retaliate. But Iran seems to be decisive in. their response, or at least the type of response that's going to come to Israel and not only Iran, Hezbollah as well. So what's the latest?

What's the situation in the Middle East? Well, we're in a war of nerves, and you can see that some people's nerves are fraying. First of all, last week, there was a whole cascade of articles and comments that the Iranians were preparing to back down, and that there'd been all kinds of talk from the U.S., telling the Iranians, the Iranians, you know, don't attack Israel at this time, continue to exercise indefinite, unending restraint in the face of what the Israelis are doing. And supposedly there was an argument going on in Tehran between the president of Iran, and the more hard-line figures in Iran.

There were weird articles planted in the Telegraph and the New York Times, which all suggested this story. and there was, I think, for a short time, some hope that because the Iranians hadn't yet attacked, that they weren't going to do so at all. And we were starting to get articles starting to appear in that form. And then something seems to have snapped over the weekend because where last week,

it looked as if they were starting to think in the West that the Iranians aren't going to attack. Over the weekend, they seem to realize that things are turning out differently and that the Iranians might indeed be intending to attack after all. So, on Monday, we got an absolutely incredible statement published by the five big Western powers. The United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy. It's a joint statement and it's one of the most astonishing statements in a situation of this guy that I've ever seen. As a piece of diplomacy, it is terrible.

What it basically says is, it says to Iran, it uses the word Iran must stand down. It actually says that. It accuses Iran of preparing to commit aggression against Israel. It talks about the West defending Israel. It talks about Iran supporting terrorist groups and using those terrorist groups to conduct attacks against Israel. It nowhere in any place refers to the assassination of Hania in Tehran or acknowledges even that that has happened. So it throws the entire blame of the whole crisis on Iran and basically says that the West stands behind his. around. So it's an incredibly menacing statement. The Iranians, by the way, were furious about this.

But the West then followed up that statement with a succession of calls to Tehran by European leaders. Biden himself can't speak to the Iranians. He wouldn't want to anywhere, I suspect. Only the Democrats wouldn't let him. But anyway, putting all that, so he can't speak to the Iranians because the US doesn't have diplomatic relations with Iranians. But Britain, France, I believe Italy as well, maybe others, they all called the Iranian leadership. There are conversations between them and President Pezishkan himself. Remember, he's the person who we were being told last week is the moderate, the person who doesn't walk retaliation. Anyway, we're getting Iranian readouts about what Peziscan said.

and he was absolutely uncompromising. He said that what the Israelis did broke every red line, that Iran must retaliate and has a right to retaliate and will do so, and that the retaliation will be strong and very tough. And I'm going to say, if this statement was intended to intimidate and determine, and deter the Iranians, my sense is that it's done the opposite. Anyway, the other thing that they've been trying to do is that they've been trying to get the negotiations for a ceasefire

in Gaza up and running. And they seem to be trying to tell the Iranians, on the one hand, you know, they threaten them. On the other, they say, well, look, we're actually about to get the ceasefire in Gaza. So why are you rocking the boat? Why are you creating trouble? this time when the ceasefire is almost within our grasp. But there were supposed to be talks about the ceasefire today. Hamas has said it's not going to participate. The word that's now

coming out is that Hamas wasn't expected to turn up at this meeting at all, that this was only going to be a meeting between the Americans and the Israelis, that the Americans are trying to get the Israelis to make concessions and to agree to a ceasefire deal that was almost reached, apparently, two weeks ago Netanyahu said to be very unhappy with that. The Americans trying to persuade Nessiniyahu to go back and to agree to the original ceasefire deal that was been talked about two weeks ago. Netanyahu apparently so far refusing to do that. and that's where we are.

Western diplomacy is in a mess, and to be frank, even if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, I think the Iranians feel so angry and they feel that that statement so obviously tried to put them back in a corner that I think it's even more likely now, if I'd say it's almost a certainty, that a big Iranian retaliation is coming.

And I'm not going to try and guess when it is. I think that people in the West have misunderstood why the Iranians are taking their time. And I think that, as I said, over the weekend, they suddenly realized that it wasn't because the Iranians were backing off, which is because things are actually happening. happening, which suggests that the Iranians are for real. Yeah, I was going to ask you, what if they managed to get a ceasefire in Gaza?

Does Iran back off? So even if they were to achieve a ceasefire, which, I mean, it doesn't seem like you're going to get a ceasefire any time soon. Would Iran retaliating, would that jeopardize a ceasefire if we did get one? or the two has around completely separated the two now? I think Iran has separated the two. At least Iranian statements are suggesting that that is the case. But of course, the problem with the ceasefire is that Netanyahu doesn't want it. Now, the Israeli military does because the Gaza operation hasn't turned out very well for them.

But Netanyahu himself doesn't want a ceasefire. So what happened was as soon as it looked as if a ceasefire had been agreed, he started attaching conditions to it. And he's not showing any sign of willingness to back off those conditions. So he doesn't want a ceasefire. And if he is pushed into a green ceasefire, what he's going to do is night follows day, is take some action to undermine it. And Hamas has now elected a man called Sinwar, who is,

the head of Hamas's military wing as its new political chief to replace Hania. Sinwa is not only a very tough hardliner, but he's someone who the Israelis have said quite openly is on their kill list. So there still be continued, presumably, to come after him. And, well, if he is killed or if the Israelis try to kill him, that's going to automatically upturn any ceasefire now in Gaza. So I don't myself see this ceasefire coming. The Americans desperately are trying to arrest, what is some Americans are desperately trying to arrange it

because I think they feel that they need a ceasefire again with the elections coming. But I think that by this point, Hamas and Iran have basically lost all, faith and belief in it. And Hamas, by saying that they're going to boycott the ceasefire negotiations, is signaling as much. Yeah, it seems like there's no other way forward than retaliation. And then you're going to get the Israeli retaliation to the Iranian retaliation. The U.S. The U.S. is going to have to act as well. At least that's the indications that we're getting from the Biden White House,

is that they're going to strike at Iran as well, the collective West. So, I mean, you know, we're waiting for the Iranian retaliation. That's the way it looks. We're waiting for this retaliation. And I guess the question is what, how big of a retaliation will it be? And that's going to dictate what the response is going to be. But I imagine any retaliation from Iran, Netanyahu is going to use. it to get the war that he's looking for.

And the neocons are going to use it to get the war they're looking for. So the region, the region in the world is stuck in this escalation cycle. Absolutely. And again, I mean, the wording of that statement that the five Western powers published on Monday, I have to say this, was so ferocious in the way that you spoke about Iran, that I wonder whether somebody who had a hand in writing it also wants a war, because it's the kind of statement that is so aggressive that it looks intended to provoke Iran more than, you know, appease it. Now, your point, however, brings us to the main question. Netanyahu gets every impression now of wanting a war between Israel and Iran.

He's been talking about this for years. This has been a major talking point of peace for a very, very long time. He knows that Israel can't prevail against Iran by itself. So in some form, he wants to involve the United States. One of his former ambassadors, Michael Oren, has written an extraordinary piece of the Times of Israel, in which he basically says that it's an America's interest to back Israel at this time, because this is the moment when the stars are aligned, and Israel and the Americans together can defeat and basically achieve regime change in Iran.

So that's, I think, what the Israelis want. I think the Iranians understand that very, very well. And I think that pushes us back to the question of what are the Iranians going to do. I think that the Iranians understand perfectly well, your point. If they make a small attack or a limited attack against Israel, it's not going to deter Netanyahu because he wants the war. He's more likely to respond aggressively again. So given that that is so, the logic points to a much more powerful attack,

because that's the only way either, that's the only way to re-establish deterrence, if deterrence by this point is even possible, or if not deterrence, at least to prepare to set the scene for what looks like a much, much more prolonged war. And I think this explains the Iranian delay, because I think that, they're getting all their forces assembled. They're moving all their people around. They're building up their bunkers.

They're increasing the number of missiles that they're producing. They're deploying them maybe to places like Iraq and Lebanon as well, you know, doing so under the radar and whatever way they can do. Because they understand that this is likely to be a long and difficult war for them. And the other thing they're doing, now this we have only based on American media reports, but I suspect that these reports are true. They seem to have managed to persuade the Russians to sell them or supply to them, S-400 anti-air defense missile systems, which, given that so far as we know,

the Iranians haven't trained on are presumably, to a certain degree at least, operated by Russian advisors. I just say. Now, these are very effective and very powerful air defence systems. And it takes some time for them to be fully integrated and to become operational in Iran to provide an air defence cover. And I suspect that one of the reasons why we got that very, very tough statement from the five powers on Monday, is because they've now started to see these various Iranian preparations, that they're getting intelligence about them. They're learning about these missile deployments from Russia.

They're seeing the Iranians do the various other preparatory things. and that made them realize that the Iranians are in earnest this time. So I think we're heading to a war. I mean, you know, it's possible that a Gaza sees fire, some kind of move might, you know, calm things. But all of the signs point to a major conflict being on the way. And we've had another telltale sign, by the way, MBS, crown prince of Saudi Arabia,

prime minister of Saudi Arabia. He's now come out, he's made another statement about the fact that he's, you know, under incredible pressure, or at least he's been done to come under, you know, considerable criticism. Well, it was even stronger than that. For the rapprochement he's achieved with Iran,

someone construing his words as hinting that there's been another assassination attempt on him. There's been some rumours that had previously been one some time ago. It might be that there's been another attempt to assassinate him. We don't know this for a fact, or it could be that he might be referring to the earlier incident. But anyway, the fact that he appears to be talking in this way also, also suggests that we're in a very, very complex and fraught situation. and that we're heading towards a major conflict and a war. And I don't think that all this diplomacy can really stop it.

The reason it can't be stopped is because one party, the Netanyahu government wants it. The Netanyahu government wants it and the other party, the Biden White House, they failed in keeping Netanyahu in check. Exactly. Biden White House, there is no Biden foreign policy anymore. No one even knows. what's going on in the White House anymore. Exactly.

Right? Exactly. And the more time, it sounds like the more time that goes by for an Iranian retaliation, it does indicate that this is going to be a longer, bigger war. In other words, if Iran retaliated immediately, then this might have been a much quicker conflict, whatever it means by conflict. But now it looks like the more time that is passing, it does look like there is a preparation for a war rather than maybe a quick conflict or quick exchange between Iran and Israel. I mean, the time that it's taking to see Iranian retaliation may not be a good sign.

Some people may look at it as a good sign. Things are calming down, but it actually may indicate something much worse is coming. I think so. And I think the thing to do is to look at what each side is saying. I'm not, as I said, seen any sign of any softening on Iraq from the Iranian side, on the contrary, if anything, a further hardening. Netanyahu is certainly not softening in his rhetoric, nor his officials. And, you know, Michael Oren wrote that piece in the Times of Israel, as I mentioned. And, well, we, got this as I said, ferocious statement from the Western powers on Monday, which to my mind shows how the extent to which they sense that they're losing control of the situation. All right. We will end it there at the durand.orgs.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitchy, telegram, rockfin, and Twitter X. And go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch like the T-shirts we are wearing today with country patches on the sleeves. Take care.