The Duran Podcast - Fall of Ugledar. Zelensky exile plan

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

Fall of Ugledar. Zelensky exile plan

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine. And let's start off with the situation on the front lines. And let's start things off with Ugladar. I guess is the most important part of the front lines to discuss, the encirclement of Ugladar, which has pretty much now been confirmed. And all of this was going down when Zelensky was in the United States. trying to get entry into NATO and trying to get permission for long-range missile strikes, with reports claiming that the Ukrainian soldiers facing encirclement in Ugladar were ordered not to leave

Ugladar, which has now led to their effective encirclement. And I have read reports which claim that some of the soldiers in the 72nd are surrendering. I don't know if that is true, but anyway, what are your thoughts on what is happening on the front lines? and if you agree that Ugladar right now is the area that we need to focus on. Vuglodar is indisputably the area we need to focus on, and for three reasons. Firstly, a significant force of Ukrainian troops, some of their best troops. About 1,500, 2,000 men maybe are surrounded in Vuglodar. Well, that may not sound like a huge number, but Ukraine is very short of troops.

now right across the front lines and is short of some of its best troops. And some of its best troops, too many of them, are surrounded in Vuglada. And if they capitulate, if they're all lost, that will be a blow to the Ukrainian military. And it will be a blow that will be absorbed by wider Ukrainian society because it will look as if, well, it will be, first of all, an indisputable defeat, one that cannot be concealed or explained away from the Ukrainian people and one which will affect general morale across Ukraine because I said these soldiers have been lost.

There is another factor about Wuglodar. Vuglodar was a heavily fortified mining town in southern Dombas. It was built, obviously, by the Soviets, in these typical Soviet fashion with high-rise buildings and in a landscape, you know, the steppe landscape, the prairies, if you like, of this region of southern Russia and eastern Ukraine. So it rises out of flat territory like, you know, spires or towers of a medieval fortress. It dominates the landscape around it. And that made it an obvious and extremely strong

fortified position and one which dominates the neighboring railway lines and roads, some of which have been under Russian control since 2022, but which the Russians have not been able to use because from Vuglada, the Ukrainians were able to shell the railways, and this had a significant effect, has had a significant effect on Russian logistics. Also, the control of Vuglidae meant that the Ukrainians were able to lock down this entire area of southern Donbass, because the Ukrainians were control of Wuglada. The Russians couldn't really advance in this area. They couldn't advance towards places like Oreckhoff and the city of Zaporosje in the further west.

Because with the Ukrainians in control of Wuglodar, the logistics were bad, and the Ukrainians were there on their flanks, on the Russians' flanks. And the same was true about advances northward in Donbass. itself, say to Kurajovu or to Pakrovsk from the south. So it's a very important strategic location. And last but not least, because the Russians have repeatedly attempted to capture Vuglodar, they started attempts to capture Vuglodar way back in the first weeks of the Special Military Operation in 2022, because the Russians have repeatedly attempted to capture Vuglada and have been and have failed to do so because this place is so well fortified and so fiercely defended,

it had acquired enormous psychological importance within Ukrainian society. It was the unbreakable, invincible fortress that the Russians were not able to take. So we're all in these reasons. If Wuglidar is lost, if the men who defend it are killed or captured, by the Russians. It will be a huge blow for Ukraine and it will open up the way for the Russians to advance in all sorts of directions towards Zaporosia, the city of Zaporosia, and the Nipa, from, you know, in the west to Kourachovar and Krakovsk, putting in jeopardy, the entire Ukrainian army in southern dombas, southern and western

dombas, which following the Russian advance towards Pakrovsk, is already in jeopardy. Now, I said that if the Russians capture Wuglodar, well, they are going to capture Wuglada, and that is going to happen within the next couple of hours, days, who knows when, because the town is completely surrounded. Ukrainian troops there are completely surrounded. It seems that the commander of the 72nd

Brigade wanted to withdraw. He was refused permission to withdraw. He tried to arrange some kind of withdrawal of some of the troops on his own initiative, and the result is that Zelensky and Sirsky have sacked him. So the troops are surrounded, Vuglidar is surrounded, there is no possible relief. It's only a question of a few days, at most, before Wuglodar finally and conclusively falls. Yeah. What's going on in other areas? By the time this video goes up, by the way, Ugladar may have already fallen. Absolutely. Just a heads up. So, I mean, we just don't know when it's going to be captured by the Russians. What's going on in other areas? Kursk, not really talking much about Kursk any more.

Ukraine, military and the collective West media. They've kind of forgotten about it, it seems. So it's obviously not going well in Kursk. And other areas are along the front line. Chasovyaar, Dorez, Bakrowski. Yeah, Kursk, the reason they don't talk about the Kusk operation is because it's turning into a debacle. Now, over the last three or so weeks, the Russians have gained the initiative in Kusk,

and they've been recapturing various villages around the central, the core place within this pocket that the Ukrainians have in Kusk, which is the town, the tiny, the small town, 5,000,000, 6,000 people of Sousja. It's now becoming very dangerous for the Ukrainians because the Russians are trying to capture two villages on the border. one is Plejouvo, which is located to the south-east of Susha. The other is Svedlikovul, which is located to the south-west of Susha. The Russians are attacking and trying to capture both of these villages. If the Russians are able to capture these villages, and the Ukrainians will strain every nerve to stop that happening, then the Russians will gain control, effective control, of the main road.

In fact, it's the only big. road in this entire area, the road that is used by the Ukrainians to keep their forces in sousia and elsewhere in this pocket supplied. And if that happens, then we are looking at a cauldron, I mean a genuine cauldron, an encirclement of these Ukrainian troops, and it could become a disaster. And bear in mind, we're only a few weeks now away from the autumn rains, period of time which the Russians and the Ukrainians referred to as the Rasputitsa when everything turns to mud, the earth turns to mud. If you can't use the main roads, then you can't really move men and machines and vehicles across the fields or the forests

or the woods because the ground is too soggy and too soft. You do not want to be encircled if you find yourself in that kind of situation. So this is going very, very, very badly for the Ukrainians there. That's one battle. The other big battle, the other huge battle that is taking place, of which, by the way, the battle in Vuglada is a part, at least in my opinion, is this huge battle that's taking place in western Donbass. So the Russians have now reached Pachrovsk itself. There were various villages that they had to capture close to Pachrovsk. They appeared to have captured the last one, which is a place called Nikolaevka. They are now literally, the last place that they have to need to advance towards

in this area itself is Pakrovsk, Mirnograd Pakrovsk. They've captured Grodivka, Nikolaevka, all of these places. They're bombing Pakrovsk heavily. They've cut the main roads leading into Pakrovs. They haven't occupied the roads, but they are able to send drones and all of that. And they're starting to use, by the way, long-range drones like the Russian equivalence of the Reaper, the American Reaper drones. They're now operating over the roads. So this applies to Pachrask, very, very difficult. And the Russians likely to start an operation in Pachrowski itself. I'm guessing, again, within the next week or so, before the autumn rains start, which will make the Ukrainian supply situation. They're again very difficult. And further south, the Russians are working towards

the encircumment of two other towns. One is the town of Svedliakovor, which the Russians already occupied part of it. The Ukrainians are trying to defend themselves there. Svarylovokov was an important logistical hub, but it looks like it is at risk of encircumement. And further south still, and even more important logistical hub called Kurakovu, closer to Donets City. That looks like it's being encircled as well. Now further east, the Russians seem to be getting very close to completing the capture of Toretsk and the Toretsk conurbation. This morning, we got news that a suburb of Torez called Nelipovka has fallen under Russian control. The Russians are fighting right in the center of Toretsk. It looks as if the city, the town is about to be cut in half. This is a major fortified

position that the Ukrainians had built up in this place. It looks like it's about to collapse. And further east and north again, the Russians look to be working towards some kind of insolapse. circumment operation over Chassef-Yar. The battles of Torez and Chasvjah are interconnected with each other. If Toresk, or rather when Torek falls, Chosovya likely to fall as well. And when that happens, the major battle, the last big battle in Dombas for Slaviansk, Kramatosk and Konstantinovka, this group of big-ish towns that are the last major inhabited areas of Donbass still under Ukrainian control will begin. And once these places fall, and once Pakrovsk falls, the Russians

control all of Donbass. And the next place further west is the NEPA, the river. Yeah, what a what a debacle from, from Zelensky and his administration. Yes. What a debacle. And that is why we're also getting reports that Budanov's on the chopping blocks. Umerov, the defense minister is getting, getting ready to go. And Zelensky is trying to sell the lie that's, which I think it's a lie anyway, The disinformation that Trump supports him, the meeting between Trump and Zeletsky did not look like Trump was supporting him. It doesn't look like Trump actually likes him. But the Chinese and the Brazilians, they're pressing for their own peace formula. It's not even a peace plan. I would say it's more of a peace roadmap. Ukraine is upset with all of that. And even Switzerland.

is now saying, you know, we support China and Brazil in their peace roadmap, which is really embarrassing for Ukraine, given that Switzerland was the location of the first peace summit. So, I mean, just everything is crumbling for Zelensky. And he's trying to hold on because he doesn't have an exit plan. He's trying to keep everything together until he figures out, how do I get out of this mess? Yes, I think you've put your finger on it, because I'm, I don't think he's got an exit plan for Ukraine. He may very well have an exit plan for himself, but the two are not identical. What he wants to do, and I think this is now increasingly clear,

is that he really isn't interested in any kind of diplomatic solution. He made a series of bizarre comments about this whilst he was in the United States. He said that he wanted a diplomatic solution, but one achieved without negotiations, which is one of the most bizarre things I've ever said. But he's actually said that. I'm almost quoting him. He doesn't want negotiations because one can't negotiate with the Russians. What he seems to want is one of two things to happen. Either the Americans give him every single weapon that he's ever wanted, permission to strike anywhere in Russia and commit their own troops to his salvation. That's one option. Or in the alternative, every country in the world comes together, backs Ukraine, puts an overwhelming pressure on the Russians

and gets them to capitulate. Those are his plans. Both of them are completely delusional, or at least they come over as completely delusional. I cannot believe that he believes in either of them or seriously thinks that any of these proposals, any of these ideas will ever come to fruition. But he talks in this way because he doesn't want to end the war. He cannot end the war with a negotiation or a peace settlement,

which would call into question what he's been doing in Ukraine. I remain of the view that Zelensky wants to keep the war going right up to the last moment, to the moment when the Russians are forced to occupy Kiev itself and move beyond the Nipa River and do all of that, because by then Zelensky and his people will have escaped and will have gone to the West, and they'll be able to set up their government in exile there, and they'll be able to continue to get their support there. And I think that is his real plan. I mean, I want to stress this.

Am I coming back to that visit to the United States, when he says that Trump backs him, he says that because, as we discussed in several programs, now his major point of that visit and of all of these victory plans and peace plans and all of that is not to achieve victory for Ukraine in any shape or form or even survival for Ukraine as a country in any shape of form. It is to give the impression to people in Kiev.

I'm still the president of Ukraine. The Americans still back me. I have the support of the West. So don't even think about moving against me because if you do, the Americans will lose confidence or we'll pull out and everything will immediately fall apart. So this is what I think his game. at the moment is and I think it is a game and I think as I said he's probably already planning

the place the location where he's going to set out his government in exile Brussels London or perhaps Miami who knows government in exile from a 50 room mansion on Miami beach that's probably how he sees it yeah hanging out with with Clooney and uh and Sean Penn Absolutely. I think that is that is the direction of events. And by the way, there are some people in the West who would not be, you know, who would not regard that outcome as entirely a bad one. European countries would be coerced into continuing to recognize this government in exile as the legitimate government of Ukraine. after all, I think they still recognize Guaido who's got president of Venezuela, just saying. So they would continue to do that.

The Russian assets would remain frozen. Economic connections between Russia and Europe would still be frozen as well. This government in exile could be used to continue to make problems for the Russians in Ukraine, or what the Russians would perhaps eventually come to call

former Ukraine. As I said, if you can't defeat the Russians in a conventional war, and I don't think anybody any longer thinks you can, from the point of view of these very hard-line people, near-com people, this is not

an entirely bad outcome. They would say they still come ahead with it, come out ahead with it. More importantly, for a lot of people in the West, it's going to keep the grift going. And if there's money in a government in exile, then they will absolutely support the government in exile.

So that's how they'll see it. But there will be a lot of people in the West, a lot of neocons that are going to be very upset with Zelensky as well. Very disappointed and very upset with him as well. And I don't think he's thought about that. No. About that, by the way, you're absolutely right. I've been reading articles now.

They're starting to appear, increasing numbers, and more and more people are starting to question Zelensky's grip on reality. There was an article in The Economist, which said Ukraine is losing the war and needs to understand that, which is a criticism of Zelensky. They didn't criticize him straightforwardly, but they came very close to doing that. you know, the economist is a deeply neocom outfit and other places as well.

You're starting to see more and more criticisms being made. So it might not be quite as straightforward for him as he thinks. He might find, as I believe he thinks, he might find, yes, he's able to come to the West, still as president of Ukraine, but the West says, well, by all means, we're prepared to support a government in exile, but you can't be part of it. We want someone else, maybe Poroshenko. I doubt it would be disillusioning now,

but someone like that, who knows? All right, we will end the video there. The durand.orgas.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitchchew, telegram, Rockfin, and TwitterX and go to the Duran shop. Pick up some merch. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.