The Duran Podcast - Final Battle. Donbass And Zaporozhzhye Lines Crack

Episode Date: July 29, 2026

Final Battle. Donbass And Zaporozhzhye Lines Crack

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine. And we have a lot going on. So let's jump right into it. What is the situation on the ground? What is the situation with the blockade of Odessa? What is the situation with the gas stations? We are getting news that gas stations in certain areas have been completely destroyed by Russia. And what is Ukraine doing? What is the retaliation from Ukraine? A lot of news about Ukraine focusing now on the Caspian. So what are your thoughts on

everything going on with this war? Well, I think that we are in terms of the ground war actually pretty close now to a very, very decisive moment, which is basically the big battle for Dombas, the final battle, if you like for Dombas. Dombass is going to fall. I'm not going to give a date on it, but it's coming, and it's coming on as fast, faster, I think, than many people imagine. I mean, I know that there's some people who think it will drag on into 2027. It might do, but at the moment it doesn't look like that. Is there a reason for that, by the way? It may be going faster?

Well, I think there is, and we will come to that. I mean, there are multiple reasons, actually. And the same, I'm going to say is true of what's happening in the South, in Zaporosia. I mean, we've had, in Zaporosia and in the South, we had very, very rapid advances by the Russians in 2020. 24, 2025, they advanced all the way from basically Dornetsk, the city of Dornetsk, all the way past Guillaup-Polier over 2024, 2025. Then they reached the sort of eastern defense lines of Oreckhoff. And at that point, the Ukrainians understood that this is a real major crisis, that if O'Rejof falls, the Russians will be able to move on.

There will be nothing between the Russians and Zaporosia city. So over the course of the spring, the late winter and spring, an early summer, the Ukrainians carry out a lot of counterattacks against the Russians in Zaporosia region. They threw in large numbers of troops. This is, you know, but apparently Siersky, you know, General Siersky, commander who's just been dismissed, this was his priority to try to hold the lines in Zaporosia, because as we've discussed in many programs, if the Russians reach the river in the NEPA in the central regions of Ukraine, and Zaporosia is in the southern edge of the

central regions, but we're already getting very close to a decisive point if the Russians reach then frankly, it is existential for Ukraine. Ukraine's viability as a state begins to end. And Ziersky understood this very well. And as I said, he threw everything that Ukrainians had into trying to stop the Russians advancing towards O'Rejov, capturing O'Rejo. So we've had a whole succession of Ukrainian counterattacks in this spring and early summer and late winter. I should say, of this year. And that has slowed the Russians down. However, we seem to be past the point of Ukraine being able to sustain these counterattacks. So though the Ukrainians recaptured some villages, both in Western and Eastern Ukraine, the Russians are now quickly

capturing them all back. And especially in East, Eastern Zaporosia, I should say, not Eastern Ukraine, Eastern Zaporosia. And in eastern Zaporosia, well, one gets to sense that the main force that's going to capture O'Rejov is located. They're now starting to move again. And they seem to be breaking through the defense lines, the very last defense lines, to the east of O'Rejov. And they're approaching now.

the supply roads to O'Rejov itself. Now, if the Russians break through, and it looks as if they are going to break through, then we're going to have an effective encirclement of O'Rejo, because the Russians have powerful forces to the west and to the south, and if they break through where they're now breaking through, they will be in the east and in the north. So it would be a complete encirclement. It will be in effect a cauldron of O'Rejov.

It will be a bigger version of what we have seen in other Ukrainian fortress towns. Ugladar in 2024, Sversk at the end of 2025. And what tends to happen when a town is encircled in that way is that the collapse comes very fast. So perhaps sometime in September, October, we could see a collapse in O'Rejov. Again, one has to be careful with dates because the Ukrainians will no doubt do whatever they can, again, to slow this down. A collapse in O'Rejo will be a disaster because there is no obstacle at that point for the Russians to move on further towards Zaporosia, the city of Zaporosia, the city of Zaborosia. The city of Zaporosia, and the city of Nyepro are the two big industrial cities that Ukraine has still under its control in central Ukraine. If it loses either one of these two cities, it is a catastrophe.

We're talking in the case of Zaporosia of a city of more than a million. people, by the way, just to say so. I mean, this is a big, big place. If they lose Zaporosia, it's a disaster. It closes the southern part of the NEPA, all of the NEPA that leads towards the sea. And the fall of Zaporosia City potentially creates opportunities for the Russians to do a whole set of further things. They can then move north. towards NEPRO, the city of NEPRO. Zaporosia, I should say, is on the east bank of the river, of the deeper. NEPRO is on the Ukrainian west bank.

Expressions that we're going to have to start using more and more, I suspect, which are going to become increasingly common. There is this expression, left bank, Ukraine, and right. bank, right bank, Ukraine that goes back to the 17th century. Left bank Ukraine is all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper. Right bank Ukraine is all of Ukraine west of the Dnieper. Well, if they capture Zaporosia, I think it is the beginning of the end of Ukraine's ability to control any part of East Bank, Ukraine, left bank Ukraine. And if they control Zaporosje, then the Russians also have the ability to advance westwards

across the NEPA. It becomes easier for the Russians to fault the NEPA because they control one of the big cities there. And then a whole chain of cities in the south-west. where south-west of Ukraine begin to open up Nikopol, Krivoirog, Nikolayev, Adessa. It would be, and of course Haasson as well, the city of Haasson. It is easier for the Russians, or so it seems to me, to advance towards these cities on Ukraine's black sea coast. by crossing the Dnieper further north in the Zaporozia area, then it would be further south in Kerson region,

where the Russians already are, because there are many more river obstacles in the way of the Russians if they want to push westwards from Herson towards Nikolayev and Odessa, than the would be from Zaporosia. However, obviously, there are the big cities in the way, Nikopol, Krivoirog, Nikolaev, and potentially these are places that the Ukrainians could defend.

But then bear in mind, we would already be looking at that point at a Ukraine that is in a position of catastrophe. And Ukraine's ability to organize defenses once it's lost big industrial centres like Zaporosia and Donbass, which I'm going to come to, in a moment, and with the Russians probably likely pushing forward elsewhere in eastern Ukraine as well. Attrition is not a linear thing. One of the big mistakes, it seems to me, that many, many people make is that they imagine that because the Russians,

moving slowly through Donbass, once that they will be moving slowly right across the whole of Ukraine, moving at the same rate across the whole of Ukraine. The fact is attrition depends on resources. The Ukrainians have had resources to slow the Russians in Donbass and in eastern Ukraine. But beyond a certain point, the more territory they've lost, the more critical territory they lose, the faster the rate of collapse comes. Attrition speeds up and defense becomes increasingly difficult. So I started with Zaporozsche because, as I said, we've had over the last week information about significant Russian breakthroughs in eastern Ukraine, in eastern's Upper Austria, and in Western's Upper Asia, too, the Russians are advancing further. Now, that is one front.

The Russians are attacking simultaneously in all of ones. But can I put a pause? Yeah, can I put a pause to that? I just want to clarify, right bank is west. Yes. Left bank is easy. Because it can be I get confused with that as well. Absolutely. Just want to clarify. When you're looking at the right bank, you're talking about everything in the West. Yes. When you're talking about the left bank, you're talking about the East.

The East, exactly. So this is a key thing to understand. And I predict because the Russians and the Ukrainians themselves, by the way, both use this expression. They talk about left bank Ukraine and East Bank Ukraine. We're going to be hearing this more and more as the special military operation, which will, I think, very soon cease to be special military operation. And Putin said a few things the day before yesterday, which will come to at the end of this program, which also point to the moment when this is ceasing to be a special military operation. Anyway, I predict that we're going to be hearing these expressions, left bank, Ukraine, and right back Ukraine. train more and more over the next few months.

We are almost at the point when these are going to become routine. Maybe not in the Western media, but absolutely in the Ukrainian and Russian media spaces. So that's the first thing I wanted to discuss. The other place where there is intense fighting going on, perhaps in some ways more intense fighting, and this has been true throughout the war, but where it also looks like we are now at the final stage of what in some ways has been a continuous battle extending all the way back to 2022 is in Donbass. And before I begin to discuss where we are in Donbass now, I would like to remind of you that

way back in 2022, in February, March, 2022, right at the start of the Special Military Operation, we on our programs were repeatedly saying that Dombas is going to be the place of decision. It's going to be the place where the war is ultimately going to be decided. It was Ukraine's most heavily industrialized, most populous and richest, at one time. It's none of those things anymore. I mean, it's been devastated and broken in all kinds of ways. But, you know, that was, it's historical importance. But it is intense urban sprawl. It is a place of largeish towns, lots of factories, coal mines with all the big terracos. the slag heaps, natural fortifications, marshy ground, lots of rivers and streams, a natural

fortified position. And one which the Ukrainians, with American help, an American engineer, a military engineer, senior military engineer actually said that the Americans were heavily involved. The Ukrainians built up enormously strong fortifications had done. Bombas between 2014, 2015, after the Minsk Agreement, all the way running up to the start of the special military operation in 2022. And the problem the Russians have had is that once you advance, once you capture one city, say, Solidar, there is another city, Bahmud. When you capture Baham, there is another city, Chasifia. When you capture Chasifia, there is yet another city, Konstantinivka. You have this happen with place after place. So when I say another city,

I mean in very, very close proximity. So about half an hour's drive, one from the other, Anybody who's familiar with a topography of the Ruhr in Germany, which we've often compared Dombas, will be immediately familiar with all of this. Now, we are at the edge now of the urban sprawl. It is where the urban sprawl ends. There's a line of fortified towns at the very furthest end. edge of the urban sprawl, the western edge, and the Russians have reached it. And they've not only reached it, they are now going behind it.

So talking about urban sprawl, in 2024, the Russians took Selidovo, they took Kurachovo. In 2025, they took Pakrovsk and they took Mironograd. then this year they've taken Grishino, Rodinska, Belitskaya, Belitskaya fell a few days ago. And now they're about to take Dobrupilia. Now, apparently there's a lot of fighting going on in Dobruplia. There are reports that the Russians have entered the town. It's about 28,000 people. Dobrupilia is, in other words, being stormed.

We don't know the exact details because neither side is telling us very much. But there are lots of reports which seem to confirm that there is heavy fighting going on there. And Dobropelia is likely to fall, maybe not tomorrow or next week, but soon. The point about Dobropelia is that it is at the absolute western edge of Donbass. Around Dobropelia, there are no other towns. There are just open fields which stretch for tens of kilometers of west, north and south. And the key thing is that the Russians, who have now captured the southern town, city almost, of the line of fortified towns, Slavians, Kramatosk, Konstantievsk, Konstantius. They've now captured Konstantinovka.

Dobropelia lies to the southwest of Konstantinvka, but it has a straight way up north. So the Russians, once they've captured Dobropelia, can advance northwards, and they can cut off the supply routes to Slaviansk and Kramatosk. And there is very little that there is very little that the Ukrainians can do, it seems to stop them, because the Ukrainians are now very heavily pressed

in Slaviansk and Kramatosk itself. The Russians are on the eastern boundaries of both of these towns. They are in fact heavily attacking the outward eastern fortifications of Slaviansk, a place called Nikolaevka and a thermal power station, which is another big defensive position that the Ukrainians have there. So the Ukrainians have to hold these positions because if they lose them, then the entire integrity of this defense line, Slovianskranatosk, starts to crumble. So they need to keep lots of troops to hold this defense line. But as I said, they're now at risk of being outflanked from the south and from the west.

And several people have been talking about the potential creation of a cauldron in Slaviansk and Kramatosk of the Ukrainian forces there. And again, I would remind our viewers that we were talking about a potential quadrant for the Ukrainians in Dombatosk. way back in February, March, 2022. It is now not just starting to emerge, it is on the horizon. And then at the very northern end, there is this very puzzling, mysterious battle in Lehman, which is not, I think, one of the fortified towns, but again, is an outlier. It's to the northwest of Slavians. The Russians, by their own accounts, and I'm talking about the defence ministry, control all the territory of Lehman, but they've not announced that they've captured Lehman.

And there's a lot of confusion and uncertainty about what's taking place there. There's lots of stories, again, about Ukrainian counterattacks, trying to break through to Lehman and to push back the Russians of this area. And no doubt some of that has been happening. But they've also been scattered reports from the Russians that they have encircled a Ukrainian force, perhaps around a thousand men, perhaps rather less than that, made up of the former garrison of Lehman.

They've trapped them on the east bank of the river, which here is the Sversky-Dolnetz river, so I understand. And presumably the Russians are working to try to break this defense before they finally announce the capture of Leman itself. Now, Leman is imported. It is on high ground relative to Slaviansk. The Russians now control, in all other places, all the high ground around Slavianskramatarsk.

So, Slavians Kramatosk are on a river valley, at the base of a river valley. The Russians control all the peaks of the river valley, except in Lehman, if they can capture Leman, they will control all the heights around Slavians Kramatosk from the east. already their drones are operating continuously over these two towns. They have complete drone control over these two towns. And they can also direct artillery on positions anywhere inside these two towns. And by the way, the Russian Air Force is also very active in this area. There's heavy bombing with fab bombs, which are also being used in Zaporosia.

and in Oreckhoff especially. So the defences of these two fortified towns are at risk, we're not risk, I mean, they are imminently crumbling. Now, this has been the biggest, you could argue, this is a battle for Dombas that has continued constantly since May 2022. when the Russians captured the first two important towns that they captured in Dombasque,

Volnavacher and then eventually Maripo. And these are, this battle, the wider, bigger battle of Dombas has been continuous throughout that time. As I pointed out at the time, even during Ukraine's Zaporosia-2023 offensive. the most intense fighting continue to happen in Dombos. Odessa and the blockade as well as Ukraine and the Caspian Sea. Yeah. Just on a side note, at a side note, listening to you, Alexander, explain the situation in Dombas and in Saperosje.

I was reading this morning that Trump is warming up to Zelensky in a very big way. Oh, yeah. Because he's very happy and very impressed with Ukraine's military. operations. Yeah, I know. I mean, he's living in a completely different world. Can I say something about Trump? Him and the people around him. And the people around him. I mean, the people giving him information, the people advising him. Yeah, the media as well. Exactly, which is what happened, if you remember, with Iran. And the extraordinary thing is the extent to which Trump continuously falls for these stories. I mean,

Putin, by the way, has repeatedly warned him in phone call after phone call. Don't believe these people who are telling you these things. But, of course, Trump always does because he always wants to be a winner and he thinks he's going to be a big winner in Ukraine. He's turning going to be a terrible looser in Ukraine. I mean, I want to say that. Because what I am describing is the reality. No, no, you have to say the reality.

It is the reality. I mean, it is the reality. I mean, there is no doubt about this. If you go to Ukrainian sites, the really responsible ones, acknowledge these realities. It's the Ukrainian government. It's Zelensky. It's the PR machine. The Europeans.

It's the CIA. The UK. They're all telling this alternative. They're all living in this alternative reality. I mean, bear in mind, they still are in denial that Konstantinovka has even fallen. And so, I mean, there we go. So, I mean, this is the reality, but this is what we say. And here we come back to the other reality, which they refuse to acknowledge,

which is Adessa and the sea blockade that is going on there. Now, we've already done a program about this, but this is enormous. This is something that the Russian military, by the way, had been aching to do ever since 2022. You remember Snake's Island? The island close to Adessa. You remember the Muscova, the cruiser that was patrolling around Adessa? I mean, the reason the Russian Navy positioned those things there was obviously

because the Russian military wanted to impose a blockade on Adessa. And here we come back to the Kremlin. The Kremlin wasn't keen. It was worried about what the global south would say. There was all the issues about grain. The result was that the blockade wasn't imposed, the bombing of a desert, which could have happened that didn't happen. The missile strikes didn't happen.

The Muscoval was sunk. Snake's Island was recaptured eventually by the Ukrainians. There was the whole narrative that we were. had over the next few years about the Ukrainians defeating the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. And now what has happened? And of course, we had the grain deal in July 22, which the military was furious about. I mean, I have no doubt about this, but which Putin agreed to because Guterres, the UN General's secretary, Secretary General wanted it. Erdogan wanted it, Modi, all of the Global South wanted it.

Well, the Ukrainians attack- We did a video on this just to tell everybody. We did a video on this a couple of days. You can reference- I can reference video indeed. You can look at it and you can see- We got it to the details of it. We went into the weeds here. But now there is this blockade and it is a total blockade.

I mean, the Western shipping companies are no longer sending their ships to Addessa or to Ukraine's black seaports. There are still some ships that are trying to reach Adessa or leave Adessa, and the Russians now come after them and attack them and destroy them. I mean, you remember a couple of, about two weeks ago, we were getting all those video footage of Russian ships in the Sea of Azulf being attacked. We don't see so many of those anymore, did we do occasionally, that much fewer. But every day, the Russian Defence Ministry publishes pictures of bulk carriers of ships trying to either exit or enter Odessa. One wonders who's sending them, by the way, and how much they're being paid to do it.

But anyway, no ship now can enter Odessa and any other Ukrainian black seaport. And over the last two days or so, the Russians have taken this escalation a whole step further because Russian aircraft, Suhoi 34, fighter bombers, have started to drop these fab, precision-guided bombs on the harbor installations in Odessa and in other places, which tell us that the air defences of Odessa have completely collapsed so that Russian aircraft can now operate within range, bombing range of Adessa. And of course, fab bombs carry explosive charges on a completely different scale from what a drone can carry. A drone can carry perhaps 10 kilos of explosive.

A missile can carry more, perhaps 150, 100 kilos. Sort of estimating depends, of course, a lot on the size of a missile. A fab bomb can go from 250 kilos, up to 500 kilos, up to 1,500 kilos, some of them. And of course, there's the monstrously huge and enormously powerful 3,000 kilo bombs. But the bigger a bomb is, the heavier it is, the closer the bomber has to fly to the target before it can drop it because the gliding effect reduces because of the weight. Against that, the Russians have installed, apparently, jet engines on some of these bombs. They're not big, powerful jet engines, but they apparently lengthen the range. So, you know, we maybe start to see more of that.

Anyway, bombing of the port facilities of the desert, if it happens, and of the other Black Sea ports, if it happens systematically, he's going to destroy the ports. It's going to render them totally unusable. And we're not talking about damage which can be repaired in a few days or in a few weeks. damage from bombs of this size if it happens on an intensive basis would take months to repair. So a situation in Odessa in the Black Sea is terrible because Stanza cannot act as an efficient backstop to Ukraine's Black Sea ports. That is well established. And bear of mind, Constanza has to carry Romanian cargo and cargo destined for other European countries as well. It can't just operate for Ukraine.

And besides, one wonders, where the ship owners are going to be very keen on risking their ships in the Black Sea, in the northern part of the Black Sea, any way before very long, because it is now becoming a very interesting. tense war zone. So Ukraine's overseas trade has totally collapsed. And that was a critical part of Ukraine's economy. And it was a critical part of Ukraine's agricultural economy, which was its major export economy. And the word is that the agricultural economy is now in a period of massive stress and extreme decline, which is completely unsurprising. Can you just touch on the Caspian real quick? I have one final question, which is not military-related. Not so much military-related, but just touch on the Caspian real quick, which is Ukraine strikes into the Caspian. Well, indeed, yes. I mean, these now have been, they've targeted this one Iranian warship.

So, oh, not worship, I'm talking about cargo ship, exactly. They say they're hitting supply lines as well, like Russia, Iranian supply lines as well. That's what Zelensky is saying. That is what Zolensky is saying. So what Zelensky is trying to do is he's trying to position. Ukraine as an ally of the United States against Iran. And obviously, again, this pleases Donald Trump. It's also something that some people in the United States are facilitating.

Just to repeat, again, something we mentioned on another program. Ukraine doesn't have the targeting information to know where Iranian cargo ships are located in the Caspian Sea. It just doesn't have that information. So the only way it can be obtaining this information is from the US intelligence community. I mean, that is where it comes from. But you can see the objective here. It is to go the Iranians to conduct strikes against Iran, sorry, against Ukraine, and to merge the two wars. Now, we did a program about this too. We said that achieving this objective from a military point of view for the United States would be piling folly upon folly. There are people in the United States who are explaining trying to get

Donald Trump to understand that the United States is now critically short of precision-guided munitions. There's been articles which have appeared in the Financial Times and in Reuters, which are confirming that China is now severely restricting exports of rare earths and is trying to choke off the access of the USMIC to rare earths. There are also reports from Reuters that the American attempt, Donald Trump's attempt, to get the US industry to produce rare earths, to replace China as a supplier of rare earths by 2027, that that attempt has failed. It was bound to fail. It's incredible that Trump ever thought it could happen. So taking on two adversaries like Russia and Iran at one and the same time is not going to help America's problems. One can see how it

might help Ukraine's problems, but it's going to compound America's problems. And of course, the ultimate objective that Zelensky has is to try to draw the United States into the war against Russia in Ukraine. Now, again, folly upon folly, a disastrous idea. But, you know, We're talking about Donald Trump, maybe that's what he might be persuaded to do. What will happen if and when the bone crushing sanctions are approved by the Congress, and Trump actually does implement them? Yeah. Big sanctions, an embargo effectively on Russia is what we're talking about.

What will be the effects? Well, one country will defy that embargo. is China that we can say definitely. The Chinese are buying every Russian oil cargo. They can lay their hands on now. The big refineries are doing it, and we've had the decision from the government in Beijing that American secondary sanctions will not be observed. If the United States then retaliates by imposing 100% tariffs on China, which is what we would be looking. at. We've seen what happens. The Chinese would impose 100% tariffs in retaliation against the United States. They showed that they could absorb that blow. They also will stop exports of

rare us. And there are already critical shortages. So it will compound again America's economic problems. But to the extent that it is going to disrupt the oil trade, the oil trade, at a time when the Strait of Hormuz is closed, at a time when there is a crisis in the Red Sea, it takes another major supplier of oil. It reduces hugely their footprint from the market. We would definitely, I think, at that point, be looking at $200 a barrel of oil. I mean, it would be an enormous. crisis. We could be very well looking at a crisis anyway. And then there is a further thing,

because of course Putin has just had a meeting with his naval commanders. He's talked about seizure of ships carrying oil, Russian oil, as piracy on the high seas. I've checked. I've checked with people who know about these things. He's right. He's legally, absolutely correct. There's been a decision now that the Russian Navy will provide escorts for ships. This has been talked about, and it's been sort of happening for some time in the North Sea and even, by the way, in the English channel. This sets up the situation for a potential clash with the Russian Navy on the high seas. The Russian state navy is a fairly powerful force. It doesn't have aircraft carriers, but it has nuclear submarines, arguably more advanced, even than those that the United States has.

And of course, in a period of global oil shortage, it risks. creating tensions with other big oil consumers. China, obviously, which is the biggest navy in the world and Indian. So, which also has a significant navy. I mean, this is a recipe for complete disaster. It is a complete recipe for disaster. And going back to Putin's meeting with the naval commanders, it was very strange that the Kremlin did not provide complete transcripts

of everything that Putin said. Because I've now been able to watch film of what he said. He's clearly now hinting. at an imminent upgrade of the SMO. He said that he is always getting people coming to him, saying, can't we increase the pace? He's explained that the pace was kept at the level it was, that it was, because it ensured advances whilst minimizing casualties.

But he said that he also would like to say, see the pace increased, and the way he said it sort of hinted that the pace might indeed increase. So it looks as if we're going to see a major upgrade of the special military operation. Maybe it would cease to be a special military operation before long. Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said about two weeks. ago that it's no longer a special military operation. It's an actual war. The West has made it an actual war. What is happening has gone beyond the framework of the special military operation. Some people came back after I said that this pointed that, after we said that this pointed

to a potential upgrade of the SMO and said, well, you shouldn't judge from a single interview. view that Peskov has given. But Peskov has gone on repeating those words. And he's even said that to the Swiss media as well. So I think definitely that an upgrade of the SMO is coming to something else. And we are likely to see also the big ballistic missiles, the Oreschnik's and the others, also being used soon. Of that, I have no doubt at all. So we're going to see a major military escalation. For the Americans to start thinking of escalating themselves in the face of all of this would be reckless in the extreme. All right. We will end the video there at the durand.com. We're on XronRumble. We're on Telegram. Go to Duran Shop, pick up some merch. We have a summer

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