The Duran Podcast - Final push to the Dniepr river w/ Stanislav Krapivnik

Episode Date: November 5, 2025

Final push to the Dniepr river w/ Stanislav Krapivnik

All right, Alexander, we are here once again with Stanislav. Stanislav, thank you for joining us on the Duran. Before we get started, where can people follow your work? Always a pleasure. Okay, so X at Stas Krapivnik or SM Kraviv. The, let's see, Telegram, Stas was there as the English, Statsuday Avratna is the Russian, and YouTube. at Mr. Slavicman. Slavic with a cane, Arasim.

All right. I have those links in the description box, and they will also be as a pin comment down below. Alexander Stanislav, we have a lot to discuss in and around Ukraine on the front lines, so let's just jump right into it. Absolutely, because this is a crucial moment in the wall. And it is fascinating. It's extraordinary to see the muddle and chaos that the way Western media, at least the British and European media, are in at the moment, because, of course, they had been plugging for the last couple of months a narrative that it's not just a stalemate in the war, supposedly, but that Ukraine is in fact winning, that the Russians are being hammered by Ukrainian drones, that the refineries are all burning across Russia, that the Russian military is bleeding to death. in Donbass and that the Ukrainians are holding there. Now, over the last week, suddenly there you're starting to see the doubts begin to grow and they centre on what is happening in one particular place, which is the town of Pachrosk.

Maybe it's not the only place where things are happening, but it's the place that the media in the West is talking about. but we are having all kinds of things being said by the Ukrainians. We had an extraordinary series of statements by Zelensky himself, which continued to create confusion about what the true situation in Pachrovsky's. We've had this weird episode with the helicopters, the Black Hawk helicopters, which has caused further confusion. So who better to explain it all than give us clarity than Stanislav.

So Stanislav, over to you, what is actually happening in Pakrovsk? You know, let's tell the truth. The Ukrainian army is 200 kilometers from Moscow. We're digging our fourth line of defensive trenches. You know, people are just giving up. It's all over. And like 100 guys are taking Pukrovsk. By the way, I did see that in the media.

Like the whole Russian army is 200 guys. Which, if that was the case, do you really need to be afraid of a Russian army? If 200 guys can take a city the size of Pokrovsk, which would be something, you know, that own goal right there for the propaganda. Now, the reality is the whole front line is in motion. Starting with Kyrsan.

There's been two landings, north and south. They're not a full-on liberal. move to take Hirsson, I think what they're more there to do is to draw fire on themselves, to pull Ukrainian forces that were pulled out of Herson, there was a minimal garrison left in Hirsson, they're all pulled up to Zaporosia, to defend Zaporosia up north. And now they're on a horns at the limit, defend Zaporosia and watch micro-district, after the district start to fall, and eventually possibly a full-on crossing of the NEPAren, south and a full-on retaking of Kersan or pull the troops out of Zaporosia south and

once the Russian army continue advancing upwards towards Zaporosia. It's going slowly towards Upper Roja, but there is steady movement. So that's the western portion. And honestly speaking, when it comes to the Neapar, Ukraine screwed. As long as there's any Russian forces anywhere on the Nepper, economically Ukraine is screwed. Because the Nepper to Ukraine is what the Mississippi is to the U.S. It is the lifeblood, lifeline, or the Amazon would be to Brazil, you know, or the Volga. You could go on, but this is a major artery where most of your industry is also located. So if they don't control that, they don't control their major economic points.

Plus, they've forever lost the Donbos, which is always Russian. In fact, if you look at the old Soviet posters from 1920s, early 19th, during a civil war, and they have Donbos because they're fighting, the communists are fighting for Dunbos against the whites, the Bolshek, the reds against the whites, plus the blacks and some of the greens. So we had this color identification for everybody. And the Donbos, the good posters, Soviet posters, just before Ukraine was actually formed by Lenin. And you have a heart on the Donbos and veins going out and the posters, the Donbos, the heart of Russia. Because economically for industrialization, that was the heart because that's where you got most of your entropedic coal, that the high burning, high quality coal from.

It's just gigantic coal basin. So Ukraine's already lost a gigantic portion of industry that will never get back. It doesn't have control of the Nieper, so it's economically infeasible as a country. The only port it has left really is Addessa, and when that goes, that will be it for any kind of economic sustainability for a rough state, other than baseline agriculture and some mining further west. So that's a big issue for them. So now you've got this whole front line on the south active. You've got a pocket forming in Gula and Polia,

which is eastern portion of Zaporosia. For quite a while, the Russian army was trying to take it in direct assault, which as an officer I think was absolutely stupid, because it's on high ground. And they failed. It failed against modern technology, in this case, drones, because it's open high ground. So whenever any kind of armored fist got formed, they got sighted well before they could reach the edges of the city. And they got attacked and destroyed oftentimes.

So there was a couple of assaults like that until the general staff said, you know, this is ridiculous. So we're not going to do this anymore. So now they've got a very wide surrounding going to the north, north of Guillaipo. Bulya Pouillet is the anchor in the defensive line in eastern Zaporosia. It's that castle on the hill that you kind of have to take because they could always strike you in the flanks if you just go around them and don't do anything to them. They're that thorn and aside. And the encirclement is aimed at cutting off their logistics lines. Because like it or not, military is all fun and games and Hollywood makes glorious movies,

but the reality is always the guy with the cart or the truck that's delivering your food, your bullets, your men, without, and your fuel, and without which there is no army, there is no war. So, and that, it all comes down to that. So Zaporosia, and this is the westernmost part of Dainzka province, is also in motion, as it's surrounding. Guillaipoli is about 30%, well, it's actually more than 30, because the south and the east is fully surrounded, the north is about halfway done. So you're looking at about 60% encirclement.

There's still going to be a route left because, as I said before in a previous video, you always want to leave a psychological out for your enemy because that's always going to weigh on them that maybe I can make it out. Maybe it all goes to hell. I don't have to stand here and die. I could possibly make it out. There's a Russian saying, Nigeria's to die die last.

So there's always hope maybe I'll be the guy that gets out, the one in ten that gets out. And that weighs on people's mind, for council. Then you go further north. We're heading, we'll head straight over to Pakrovs. So supposedly, I'll start with the north of Pakrovsk, cross armies. The Russian penetration that went pretty deep. The main point of that was up north was to draw enemy reserves. And supposedly, well, the Ukrainian is saying they liquidated something in the north and they took 2,000 prisoners.

They've yet to show a single photo of any of these prisoners. In fact, the reason there are no prisoner exchanges anymore is because they have nothing to give. And even in the last prisoner exchanges, they were giving civilians, pro-Russian civilians, journalists, politicians, whoever. And they kidnapped off the streets, priests, monks, nuns. And they were handing half the people that were going from the Ukrainian side were civilians. On the other hand, by the way, while we're on that subject, Ukraine still holds 120 hostages, civilian hostages from Kursk that it evacuated out. You know, took hostage to use as bargaining chips, and they've yet to return those people. And what their status is, it's a big question.

How many are still alive? How many are in what condition and so on. But they're being held somewhere in Sumi Oblasts as human hostages. So Ukraine's made all these statements. The Russian Ministry of Defense of State, and absolutely the opposite, no, we're actually attacking. You're moving back. So what's going on is very hard to tell.

Because one of the things Ukraine did, well, it's hard to do now. But Ukraine, they were taking videos of them holding Ukrainian flags in villages before they evacuated those villages. Then later on, a week or two weeks or a month later, when they needed a, quote, PR victory, they tossed those out on the internet. See, we took this village again. Of course, now the trees are losing their leaves. So let's see have up-to-date the images.

That doesn't work as well anymore. But the northern portion of Pakrovsk is fully surrounded. The southern portion, almost all the Pakrovsk is now in Russian hands. About 80% of Pakrovsk's in Russian hands. About 20-30% of Miragrad is in the Russian hands, which is east of Pakrovsk. But the Russian forces aren't in any hurry. They've got the guys surrounded. There is about a kilometer and a half wide corridor left.

And that's swept by drones. God, I watched this video from actually the south of this cauldron. It was a 20-second video, and I counted nine or ten drones flying over in that 20-second video. I mean, you want to talk about a target-rich environment. There's no reason, you know, arrows are cheaper than men. Well, in this case, drones are even cheaper, much cheaper than men. Why clear the enemy out when you can just exterminate them? And then come in and pick up whoever's left, either a live surrendering or pick them off as you need to.

The Russian Army's been doing that as it was because every time in advance and it hits an obstacle, hard enough obstacle, they usually step back and just start hammering with everything to have. Artillery, drones, direct fire from tanks. Tanks are still there. You don't see the big tank advances right now, but the tanks are still there. and just being used as direct fire weapon systems platform. And you don't need modern tanks for that. That's why the West is celebrating,

oh, look, T-72s, T-64s are being moved in. They're talking about T-55s. Yeah, and they work, because they're serving an entirely different purpose in this case. They're doing infantry support as direct fire weapons. So you've got a built-up position somewhere, a kilometer, two kilometers in front of you, and this is mostly absolutely flat terrain. You bring a tank into a pre-dued position, so he's in a cover, hold-down position, and he just unleashes his full armament barrage on that position, drives away.

Reloads, comes back, pops off another 30 rounds, high explosive into that area, pulls back. I mean, those rounds are cheap, and you can just keep doing this day in and day out, day in and day out. You dig a couple positions hauled down from tanks, and the tanks are direct fire. there is a lot of pressure right now on changing tactics because the Ukrainian forces are weak all up and down the front. The push right now is to reorganize and go back to big armored fist attacks. Sure, you'll lose more men that day than you would if you go slow, but you're going to burst through because there's not enough enemy left to hold the line. And once you burst through, you know, those drone operators aren't that far away from the front a lot of times.

You're going to be able to exploit that, as opposed to small teams, so you're losing a few men every day, but it takes a long time. And you may be actually losing more than if you do an armored fist attack, especially right now because the Ukrainians are very thin on the ground, extremely thin. There's just to understand how much just in desertions, the prosecutor general in Kiev has opened up 300,000 cases of desertion. 300,000 cases of desertion. That's, I believe, the French and the British Army combined. Just to understand the size of that.

That's just how many men have deserted and disappeared off the battlefield, ran away in whichever direction. So, can I just say sorry? It's not the British and the French armies combined. It's the British and French militaries combined. The armies would be about half that. Yeah, I'm more like $1,000. And what I say...

The key point I want to take away from this is that Pachrovsk, what the Russians are saying, that it is encircled, that the Ukrainian troops in Pachrowski is encircled. That is the fact. There's been an enormous amount of obfuscation and misrepresentation about the situation. But that is the reality.

There are these very complex battles that are taking place northeast of Pachrovsk, which are very difficult to understand, but perhaps not that important relative to the realities in Pachrovsk itself. And more likely than not, some of these Ukrainian victories there are themselves PR exercises, people releasing footage of videos that might have been taken a week or two months, or two months. in particular places with flags raised. We don't want, I mean, that may be the case,

that's quite likely the case. But the point is, in Prakosk itself, most of the city, 80% of it, is under Russian control, and the Russians have the Ukrainians surrounded. That is the reality. I've got this correct. Absolutely. You're looking at there may be about four,

four and a half thousand men left alive, maybe less by now. I mean, there was a count of about 500 that were killed by drones alone in one day. I mean, this is how much of a drone-rich environment. This is. They've got nothing to stop with the drones. They're basically rats running between basements or hiding out in basements. And you just start systematically destroying block by block by block, by block, hitting everything.

You've got drones are cheap. Russia has gone into such a massive manufacturing base for drones that, especially in a place like Pakrovsk, they're concentrated in and they're just being tossed in by the hundreds. And again, drones are cheaper than sending in men. Why lose your men when you can just destroy the enemy remotely? And that's exactly what's going on. Whatever machines they brought in, heavy machinery, tanks, even light vehicles, everything gets destroyed. Everything is noticed, everything's destroyed.

There's constant aviation surveillance, both from fixed wing, rotary wing, and from drones. That one and a half or 1.8 kilometer corridor is swept by direct fire weapons. So you've got anti-tank missiles like Bator. You've got direct-fly fire artillery. Okay, so not really. They're considered artillery, but they're direct line, like anti-tank guns. that can sweep that area, you know, mortars, heavy machine guns. The chance that getting through are very slim and only for small groups.

And the point two is it's raining. It's raining buckets. The Rasputnetsa is in full effect. Mud is knee-deep. I mean, if you've never been through that mud, it will literally suck the boots off you. Other guys running barefoot in some areas because it will just suck the boots off of you. That mud, it's like, I know, you know, I've been in lots of mud in the U.S. and in Germany, and there's nothing to describe it and compare it to what that mud in Ukraine, that portion of Russia is.

That it's just, that the black earth mud is, it's something. It grows great. Everything grows in it, but, man, it will suck a body down. And you were stuck. And the heavy equipment, you know, I remember videos that were coming out on, American Max Pros, which are a suicide platform to drive in on a battlefield. They're great in Afghanistan and Iraq because the main issue was landmines and remote detonated ordinance.

Their survivability area, the crew was great because the wheels will go flying off and just settled down. But it's four meters tall. Again, when you have SWAT teams or I'm in the U.S. driving up to somebody's wooden shack house and going, yeah, people kind of go look at that and go, okay, yeah, you're going to drive right through my house, we'll surrender. That's great for police too. Driving it out in an open battlefield with direct fire engagement, it's a suicide run.

They don't survive, but there's tons of them because the U.S. is just dumping them off. And the British are dumping theirs, and the Australians are dumping theirs. Everybody built these giant truck things. They're relatively lightly armored, four meters tall. I mean, it's a sin to miss one if you're shooting at it. It's a rolling barn. And these things, they settle into that mud, and that's it. They go belly down, and you cannot pull them out.

I've seen a video that had three tractors trying to pull one out. It's not moving. It's in there for good. You're going to be digging it out when the earth dries. So any of the equipment, even Soviet-made tanks, don't do well in this month. And they do much better than Western-made tanks. to have narrow treads, just like the Germans ran into back in the 40s. So the only people getting out are very small groups, disorganized groups, trying to get out.

Now, this helicopter flight, unfortunately, Budanov wasn't on it, as was advertised. But on us flying in. Number one terrorist of Ukraine's narco-terrorist regime was not on it. Everybody's hoping he was on it. You saw a little piece of video that came out of them landing, and they're spreading out. Well, we're all trained enough to spread out. If you saw the rest of the videos that were put together of that, they were all dead within 15 minutes. Drones, there was no direct fire engaging with them. These special forces guys, they were dropped into a kill sack,

drone kill sack. They were all haunted down. You just watch all the videos of them getting hunted down, one by one by one by one. Two guys were in a basement and they got smacked in that basement several times everybody else was killed in the field. We're trying to hide in a wood line that was very thin woodline. So, I mean, it's just the best anybody can guess why the hell they were doing that was to show the flag. And the Ukrainians have done this over and over and over again. They've done landings on Crimea where all the guys are getting killed, but they were there long enough to raise a flag, get a video off, and then run for your lives. Well, by that point, you're dead. They've done it up and down around the Russian border.

It's a suicide mission. I mean, it's basically taking guys on a suicide mission for a PR stunt. Now, do the American and the British generals give a damn? Of course not. It's not their people. Does Zelensky give a damn? Of course not. It's not his people.

He's not going to grow old in Ukraine. His parents are living in Israel. His wife and kids are living in London. These aren't his people. And the same goes for the entire management team in Ukraine. because I'm not going to call them a leadership, their management. Their second line management for the owners who all happen to be outside of Ukraine. So they threw these guys in.

They threw these guys in on a suicide mission. You know, I don't know what they were told. I don't know how much they believed in what they were doing, but they went and they died. That's how it goes. It was a stupid rape of life. It's still an incredible thing to do that you would throw away the lives of presumably very expensively trained soldiers. Ukraine cannot have vast numbers on an operation of that kind.

Anyway, I wanted to say a few things. A German soldier who fought in the Soviet Union during the Second World War and who had horrors about it and nightmares about it, all of his life. He once described to me the Rasputitsa. He said, it's like glue. It's like walking through glue.

That was how he described it to me. For him, for him, autumn was actually worse than the worst of the winter, precisely because of the rain and of the fact that trying to walk through this was unbearable. Secondly, what you said previously about Zaporogia and Heson and the Nipa, we've been saying on the Duran for ages. The Nipa is like the Rhine and the Dombas is like the Rhine, and the Dombas is like. like the Ruhr. You cannot, Ukraine cannot function without these control of these two places. I mean, the Ruhr is its industrial heart. The NEPA is its artery, it's its lifeblood.

All the great cities, NEPRO, NEPROPETROSk, Zaporosia, Kremlinch, Kiev, they're all strung out across the NEPA. If the NEPA is under Russian control, or at least if the Russians reach the East Bank of the NEPA, the Ukraine as it exists, cannot function

anymore. So those are two things. And I think you explained the battle of Gwilyapolier extremely well, and you mentioned the anarchists. For those who don't know, and who are interested in the history of the Russian Civil War, Gulliapolier was where the anarchist,

Nestor Machno and company, that was where they were based, they were based actually in Guilla Paulier. Now, that's only part of the front lines. Tell us what happens when Pachrosk falls, because there's now, a few months ago, all over the media in the West, Pagrosk is this incredibly important strategic place. Now, it is unimportant. It has no strategic significance. What's I mean, it's a little battle of a small, unimportant town. What is the truth? By the way, Nestor, if you read the history, he was considered a serious radical by his time. But if you actually look at what he stood for economically, he's a relatively light socialist.

In today's measures, it's really not that. There's nothing very radical about anything he's said. by today's standards. So that's how much society's changed their views. Now, yes, Pachrovsky's or Krasn-Armesk is heading down the same route as Marieupil, the same route as Bachmuth, or Atyomis, the same route as Kupensk very soon, where we will stand and die here because this has to be, oh, yeah, never mind, it's not important.

The next one's important. This one's not important. The problem is there is no next one. The next one, the next big conglomerate, well, it's not even conglomerate, the next big city is Nepe Petrovs, which mostly is on the right bank or the eastern side, but there's a portion of the city on the left bank, which is on the eastern side. There's one large town in between. Pavlov got. Pavlovka, yeah, Pavlov. All these names repeated with slight changes.

There's a bad tendency. You get lots of Kastanavka, you got lots of this and that. Pavlika is the only town along the way of any kind of significance, and it can't be gone around. You cannot build, it could be worked as a anchor point on a defensive line, but you need more than just one town. The little few villages around are not prepared. And the other problem is, and the Ukrainians have tried building a line about 20 kilometers west of Petropovos. one, it runs across open fields, so it's open view. Two, they also have the manpower to pack it. You know, where you may need 100 guys or 200 guys, they've got 10 guys.

And that's it. Toward north of Petroposcan, the Russian troops broke through that very new line. There was nobody there. Just walked right through because there's absolutely nobody there. Great line, they dug it up, they put in trenches, they put in strong points. they just didn't put in any men or equipment. You know, I guess you could use them from future canalsation for the fields,

in water, and I don't know. But that's what you've got. So when this opens up, just north of Krasnaarmesk, across, is the big conglomerate. The big englomerate of Slavinsk, where it all started, Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka.

Kansentinovka, there's already combat going on in the eastern edges of the city. This conglomer is basically already in circle by about 60%. Krasnilman is in play fully right now. So the Russian army is already in full contact in Krasnilman. That town is fully in play, and it looks like it's not going to last very long either. Because Ukrainians just don't have the manpower. Once that falls, you've got the northern side taken, and you're on the high ground looking down at some.

So the artillery's got great ranges, and it's got great areas of fire to sweep whatever's down there. But there's a bigger problem. The bigger problem is how do you feed and arm the troops there? Because now the Petra Piazegas is about to fully fall, effectively has fallen. I mean, it's a mopping up operation. It's just going slowly because nobody wants to lose troops mopping up the enemy that's basically already broken. Once you get that, you've got three directions. You can go.

Obviously, you can go straight toward Nepebatross and continue cutting off the line. You can go north and do a secondary full encirclement of the conglomerate. And you go south and strike toward the Nepper southwest, finishing off whatever's left of Donetska Oblasts that's still in the Ukrainian hands and put that extra pressure toward Zaporosia. closing the whole line up and down the Nyepper. Now, getting to the Nyepper is not going to end this war. I mean, it's not, obviously enough.

You can still shoot across the Nyepper. The Ukrainians will fall back and try to rearm. But they've got other issues too, because they've got three obelists that are east of the Nyepper. I'm not even counting NEPA petrovsk obelis, which is partially already liberated. Now, there's a point now. It's now being called liberated, even though these portions. Russians are not part of Russia. Because sooner or later, there's going to be people's republics voted in in these areas. Nobody's, the line is going to be where the line stops. And every

day Ukraine doesn't want to come to peace, there's going to be that much less Ukraine left. And every day, there's movement forward. Nobody's going to give these territories up. It's blood's been spilled, iris up. And believe me, if it wasn't a legion of legionage, Kiev would have been a burning wreck by now. And evolve would probably be a nuclear crater. because that's the level of the anger that's built up in Russia. A little bit on tangent. Russia escalates differently than the West. It always has.

Russia escalates in bursts, big burst. It tolerates a lot. There's a Russian saying, you know, Ivan, Yvonne takes a long time to get to his feet. But once he's on his feet, blood flows in rivers. Russians take a long time to really piss off. Once that anger is gone, is gone past critical mass. Once that anger's there, it'll take, it becomes the Russian chaos. It takes on a life of its own.

There's almost no stopping it. It just flows. It's like an act of nature. It's insanity it takes over, and the bloodletting really starts. So Ukraine is pretty much at that point right now. The anger in Russia is incredible. And the government, you know, they try to do the talks with Trump. Well, Trump is Trump.

They thought they had some kind of at least breakthrough in Alaska. Everything's been reversed. We're back to the same point, which I think was always going to be the point anyways, to go back to the same point. The only thing left is for longer-range missiles to start hitting, and that will be the release point of the spring. If you look at historically, even as Russia was preparing to destroy Charles the not so great in Paltava, Peter de Great was writing letters to him. Let's stop playing around. We go back to the old borders. There's no point in this.

Russia has always been doing that. Nicholas II was running around, constantly trying to calm everybody down before World War I broke out. But everybody wanted a fight. And that also costs Russia quite a bit because it didn't actually fully mobilize until after the other. because they're still trying to get everybody to step off the ledge. But everybody wanted to jump off that ledge so much for the glorified two-week war, two months more. And that has been the Russian point constantly.

But once it starts, once that release point goes, it's not incremental. It's one big hop forward. And that's something the West doesn't understand. They're pushing that spring down, down, down with their own little incremental escalations. and then they get one big smack back. And then they're screaming, oh, the Russians are not proportional. They didn't have to do this or that. Well, from the Russian mentality, that's something, you know,

you've earned more than you're getting as it is. Be lucky you didn't get even worse. And that's where we're at the point we're at right now. So I'm hoping somebody in the West has some kind of realization still, outside of people like Orban and Fitso, who obviously absolutely know what they're talking about and are obviously absolutely being ignored. Yeah.

You were explaining very well, by the way, about the importance, the strategic importance of Pakarovs, Kastnaurmesk, and that the Russians can go east, because it can go west, rather, towards the NEPA, or that once Lehman and these other places fall, the Russians are on the high ground, close to Slaviansk,

and that they can then start to attack this northern area of the Donbass. So can you explain where Pachrovsky itself falls into this? Well, Pachrovsky is literally the last fortress area in that big line that was built in the center, anyways. In the south, the fortress is still Guglia and Polia. But Pekrovsk, in that center area, it's that last big fortress. built up area. And I really mean fortress. People don't realize just how much, you know, the Germans in 42 built up for six months, the defensive line, or for about a year. It took six months for the Red Army with a lot of losses to push them out and break that down. And after that was a pretty

quick run across most of Ukraine because it's flat. It was open. And that was the main defensive line. The Niepper didn't hold very long for the Germans. The modern Ukrainian Nazis have been building up this line since 2014. So eight years, they were pouring concrete, rebarbed concrete, making elevators for artillery, that you'd pop the piece up, shoot off, and pop it back down underground for when the counter battery fire came through, tunneling, and so on. So these areas are seriously fortified, insanely fortified by modern standards, fortifications. Best that NATO could think of, because NATO was all up and down in this area,

best that NATO engineers could do. And this is the end of the line for it. This is quite literally the end of the line because there's nothing behind it but field fortifications without troops in the open fields. So once that happens, like I said, it's about a 40-kilometer run to Gibbethrovsk.

It's not across basically open terrain. With the Russian air umbrella moving forward with the infantry, I'm sure it's not going to be a blitzkrieg run. But it's going to be relatively quickly up toward the city and investing the eastern portion of the city. Now, then we go up north. And here's the problem with Kharkov. Northeastern Khadikov is being hit by three directions.

So from Kupans, which is itself another encirclement, Kupins is basically almost all in Russian hands. Enemy, the Ukrainians are surrounded southeast of Kupins. There's somewhere between three to four, maybe five thousand troops. It's hard to tell in all the truth. And how many are left, how many are left alive? So there's that other surround and others encirclement. Now, the big encirclement is going to be, again, the Slavinsk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka. And if Ukrainians do what the Ukrainians have been doing so 2014, they will stand and die in place

and then run at the last minute. instead of moving back out of areas that are no longer feasible to hold. I mean, they're following Hitler's great strategy. The only reason the German army didn't collapse as fast as they should have collapsed to stand in place because the German generals were smart enough to know to ignore Hitler's orders and retreat in force. The Ukrainians don't seem to understand that or do that, which is good for us, obviously. Let them stand in place and be destroyed when they're surrounded.

Now, from Kupins, there's movement into the northeastern sector of Khadikov. There's also two other directions coming into northeastern and Haidikov. So Ukrainians, to try to slow down the Russian liberation of Olchansk, Wachansk is right on the Russian border. So in northern Khadikov-Oblis. So when the Russian army came across originally, So about a year and a half ago, everybody's like, oh, great, they're going to charge their Hidal Cup. But they didn't.

What they did was they took the high ground and dug in. So by Zelensky's logic and losing the PR battle, he started throwing men in, or his generals starting to throw men in, trying to take that land back. So they went right into the teeth of the dragon. And they were destroyed. And this went on for a long time. And there was literally some videos from the Ukrainian side that came out where they were preparing men for an assault and one guy who's a veteran, it's like, look at these guys. They're disassembling

for the first time in their lives, they're holding an AK and they're disassembling and assembling and assembling it. They go into battle in two days. So all these guys are dead. They have absolutely zero training. First time in their lives, they're holding the weapon that they're supposed to be using in close combat against veterans. The chance of survival is zero. But they threw a lot of men into that area. Now, Wollochewski is being liberated. So the Ukrainians did, or let me rephrase it, with the American military, did. Because, you know, I don't believe in BSing the audience. And I've been saying this for two and a half

year, for two years and the Wall Street Journal was kind enough to back me up. The High Mars are fully in control of American military. American soldiers are in the High Mars, whether or not they've got their shit dipped as mercenaries, it doesn't matter. It's American soldiers in the High Mars. It's American generals plotting the points to attack with the High Mars. American General is given the orders to attack with the Haimars, and American systems are guiding the Haimars in,

the Haimars missiles from the Himar platforms. So Heimars struck the dam in Belgarum. They didn't fully destroy it, but they did a lot of damage. So there's a lot of runoff from that dam, uncontrolled runoff. And the Serabrianka River goes through Volchanz. And it flooded, it flooded the areas around it. It stopped the Russian advance. temporarily. It stopped the Russian

vans. The only problem is nobody cancelled physics. The damned physics. It just keeps running. And the problem is the Srebriyanka keeps running south. It runs all the way in eastern Harkov, all the way south, goes to a very big

reservoir with another dam and then dog legs south of Khadikov and then goes toward Dnieper that way. So, about four days ago, you started having articles coming out that up to 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers are in dire need of evacuation because they're flooded. Because unbelievably, the water keeps flowing south.

And now it's in Ukraine proper. It's flooding out their positions. But here's the other problem. The city Brianka and the bridges across it are the prime arteries keeping the eastern Hanukov-Oblets Ukrainian troops in bullets and bread. and now they're cut because you flooded the entire logistic scores for that. Whoops. And then there's the next question, the dam east of Craddikov, how much water can it actually hold additional water before it breaks?

Or it may be helped to break. Because when that dam goes, Heidecuff is going to be cut off from the rest of Ukraine. When the Sierra Branca south of Heidecub goes. So that makes it a very tempting target in the future when it's time to take Crotica. But right now, northeastern, Hanukkav Oblast is fully cut off. It's got its own logistics problem. It can't get logistics from the south like it used to.

It can't get logistics from the west right now because they flooded their own river. Oh, well. So, yeah, that's going to be a very interesting next cauldron that's already forming is eastern of Haidica Fobles. So last question for me. I get the sense that Zelensky himself, is starting to get very, very worried, alarmed.

I mean, his last set of comments was severely strange, even by his standards. Are we at that point in the wall where we are beginning to start to see, even people like Zelensky start to sense that things are basically getting out of their control? You know, it's a question, how much does Zelensky actually know about what's going on? I've read different accounts where they're talking about that he basically has absolutely no clue about what's going on because he can't handle the pressure.

So they keep him in la la land of it's one victory after another and so on. I don't know where the honest truth is there in between. Zelensky is fully in charge as much as a vassal of NATO can be in charge versus Zelensky is absolutely clueless. and it's Yermak that's handling everything. That most of this goes to Yermak is beyond doubt. How much goes up to Zelensky is questionable. Then again, at the very end, Hitler also had no concept

of what was really going on, screaming about new armies, new armies, and being told, well, sorry, sir, there are no new armies, and the ones that are left, are pretty much, you'll destroy. Will Zelensky surrender? No. Surrender, actually, that's probably the only way he gets to get out of this alive

is to surrender to Russian forces to Belarus. But of course he won't. Where he'll go, more than likely, they will stay in Kiev at least until Sumi falls. Once Sumi falls, they'll move the government out to Levovost and try something out of there. Are we at a turning point in the war? Yes, but that doesn't mean that the war is over. It's anywhere close to being over.

Look, there's been multiple turning points. And even if we look at the eastern front, the last major turning point was Stalingrad. And it was all retreat. But that retreat lasts another two years. So where, you know, there's the old saying, it's all over except for the dying. And it is all over except for the dying. It's still going to be a lot of dying left, like it or not. And it's in the Europeans' interest to keep the dying going as long as humanly possible

because they want to be a part of that dying, but on their terms, unfortunately, and Russia's not in a hurry either because Russia's playing. a long game not just with Ukraine, but with Europe. And it's betting on that regimes like Macron that's now got 11% popularity. Yeah.

I think Starver may be even less at this point, that these regimes will collapse and maybe revolutions will break out in some of these countries or at least protests, big enough protests, as long as we keep the pressure going. You know, the U.S. new sanctions, they're having a massive

impact on the EU because there's nine Russian refineries. Now, the Germans have gotten an extension until April. Everybody else is trying to get extensions. Orban's been tossed under the bus by Trump. He's gone way out of his way for Trump. And so is fits so, because they both have a refinery. Baudieri is flat out saying, if this refinery shuts down, we're going to have a revolution

because this is going to be a collapse of society, no fuel, no economy. So this is a long game. Russia has to keep the pressure on the battlefield, but not too much, because the long game is still against the Europeans. And Ukraine just happens to be, first or foremost, a battlefield that a lot of the kinetic portion of this conflict is going on. Well, Stanislav, again, thanks. That has actually been a very, very thorough explanation. I'm going to finish with just two quotes, both from Bismarck, touching on points that you said. One was that the Russians are very slow to mount their horses, but when they do, they ride very hard. That's one. The other is that anybody who begins a preemptive war against Russia is choosing suicide to avoid death.

There's another good one from Bismarck. Don't steal from the Russians. They always come for their own. Oh, I know. I've quoted that one many times. And the interesting thing, Bismarck, one thing, his grandson just got Russian citizenship. I know. And Charles de Gaulle's son has now in Russia, too. Applied for the same. All the science of the proper political leaders that Europe once had, they're going to start moving westwards to. We have to finish there because, as I said, we are limited in our time.

But again, thanks a no full lot. And you've clarified many, many things. Thank you. Thank you. Always a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you, Stanislav. Once again, where can people follow your work?

Okay, so X at Stas Karpivnik, Telegram, Stas, Today Abratna is the Russian. Stas was there as the English. And at YouTube, at Mr. Slavic man, Slavic with a K. Not a C. Those links are in the description box down below. Thank you, Stanislav. Take care. Thank you.