The Duran Podcast - France and Germany, ungovernable

Episode Date: February 5, 2025

France and Germany, ungovernable

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in France and what is going on in Germany. And in France, it looks like we might be getting another, no confidence vote. Macron is just sinking. I think he's at the lowest approval ratings ever. Absolutely. In all of his history of being president of France, he's at the lowest level, deserve it. Absolutely, absolutely. I mean, everything is falling apart around him.

He called the elections last year. We saw the extent to which those elections, the result of those elections, was manipulated. But nonetheless, it still left, it still created a situation where there was no stable coalition to form a government in the French parliament. Macron's entire strategy since the elections has been to split the left to cause the Socialist Party, which is in uncomfortable coalition with Jean-Luc Melanchance group, to try to pull them away and to connect them with Macron's own centrist grouping, which undeservedly, which undeservedly came second in terms of the number of seats in the parliament, despite coming third, a bad third in the actual voting.

Anyway, what has happened is that those attempts to split the socialists have not really succeeded because Macron is becoming so unpopular and he's grouping in the parliament is becoming so unpopular that even the state. socialists are now starting to realize that he's toxic, and they can't agree to go into coalition with him. So he first tried with Michel Barnier. He made Prime Minister. Barnier came up with a budget plan. The left and the right, Melancho and Le Pen's groupings combined and voted this budget down. Barnier then tried. to pass it through by using emergency decrees. That triggered a no-confidence vote in Barnier. Barnier

was obliged to step down as prime minister. Macron tried all over again. He appointed a political ally of his. He's still got a few. Monsieur Barreux, Monsieur Barreou became prime minister. Coalition talks then were arranged. with the socialists. Some of the socialists appeared willing to start backing Bayroux, but it proved difficult to do that because not all of the socialists would agree, and it was not clear that this coalition would have a majority in the French parliament. And then Bayou came up with another budget, which was identical in all respects to Barnier's budget. There is no support for the that budget. There's no majority support for that budget in the French parliament. Bayroux has done

exactly what Barnier did. He's now imposed the budget by decree. That has triggered a no-confidence vote proposed by the left. It is almost certain that this no-confidence vote will succeed, at which point Bayru will have to step down. And we're back where we were when we started. Macron's popularity is fading. I have to say, it is increasingly looking to me as the only way out of this logjam is for Macron to step down as president and for new elections to be called. He has resisted this every inch of the way. But by doing so, he's bringing France deeper, ever deeper into crisis. And I think increasingly, even the political class in Paris are now starting to realize that an ungovernable France is an impossible and very dangerous situation.

There have to be new elections, new presidential elections in France. And they're probably calculating that, yes, Le Pen probably will win and probably will be. become president, which has moderated a petition on so many issues that perhaps the political class may find its way to make peace with them. So I think that is most likely what we're going to see play out over the next few months in France. Baru loses a confidence vote, steps down. After a certain point, Macron resigns. New presidential elections are called Le Pen wins and becomes President. Knowing Macaron and his huge, massive ego, how likely do you see this happen?

I mean, we're talking about Macaron here. Do you think that Macaron is going to be able to say I'm out? Well, his ego may lead him to do that. Because, I mean, as things are playing out, he is failing. I mean, he tried. I mean, I haven't watched it, but I'm told that. in order to turn his popularity round, he authorised some kind of film or video himself, talking about, you know, the genius of Emmanuel Macron.

And it went down very, very badly with the French. It didn't, the French people didn't like it at all. I say this. I haven't watched it. I can't stomach watching things like that anymore from France. So he see his popularity collapse. He's seeing his authority drain away. His entire program is stuck.

And with every day that passes, it looks increasingly likely that either Le Pen or someone from her party will become the president of France. I think his vanity is so great that rather than have this, you know, forced on him through an even deeper crisis, I think he could just walk away. I said that this might be what he will do in the summer. Apparently, he even floated that possibility for a while. He'll say, you know, the French haven't understood my genius. They haven't comprehended my vast and heroic project, which would have made France, not just the leader in Europe, but perhaps even the world itself.

They didn't grasp that I'm really Napoleon or Louisville. the 14th or someone of that kind. So, you know, I'll go away, I'll leave everything to fall apart behind me. Apre moi le de luge, all of that. And I could see that that might indeed be the way Macron does things in the end. It would not be out of character. Okay, how about Germany? Well, Germany's. Germany is also not governable if it continues in this way. Germany is becoming increasingly ungovernable. And we did a recent program about Friedrich Matz's parliamentary maneuvers and about the rise of the IFTA. And we said that it made him look really scared the fact that he was passing this vote through the Bundestag, the German parliament,

in which he had to rely on the IFTA for support. You know, a vote was a vote. without any real legal significance, but which was supposed to set out the position against immigration. And what then happened was that it played out, I think, absolutely disastrously for maths, because he then got criticized by Angela Merkel, he then got criticized by the churches, he then decided to move forward with this parliamentary maneuver and propose an actual bill that would have converted this resolution that he got through the Bundest with the support of the IFDF into an actual law.

And then what happened was that he proposed it. And 12 of his MPs, 12 CDU MPs, voted against it. So it was voted down. So he's provoked a split. This is, mind you, during an election, he's provoked a split in his own party, he is isolated himself from the rest of the political plas. And he's made the IFDA look strong. I mean, they're consistent, they're clear. They are the people who say, look, we actually believe in this program against immigration. Mertz doesn't. His party clearly

doesn't. The former leader, Angela Merkel, opposes it. Some of the MPs oppose it. So the only way that you can get this done, the only party that really has a program for changing policy and changing direction in Germany is us. So why waste your time voting for the CDU? Why vote for an obvious loser? Like mouths. Why not vote for us instead? And we are the people who can actually delusely. the change that you really want and which even Mertz says that you need. Because that's essentially what he's done. Now there are apparently opinion polls existing in Germany. I have seen one which has shown that the IFDA is continuing to search and that the CDU CSU are falling and the distance between the IFD and the CDU-CSU is now shrinking. And according to one poll that I've seen, it's now down to two points, two point, which is insignificant. I mean, especially with three weeks of the election to go and with the

IFDA gaining momentum. So we have a situation where the political class in Germany has split, where doubts about Friedrich Merz have massively increased and where the IFT has momentum. Again, you get the sense that everything is breaking down and that the system which we've seen in Germany as in France and which is the EU system is starting to lose support and is collapsing. Well, we said, Merz is a zero. He's proving us correct. He's proving us correct. He's going to be worse than Schultz.

Oh, yes, absolutely. If he becomes chance, it's going to be worse than Schultz. He's already shown that he changes his position from one day to the next. He says one thing in November. I will never ever vote alongside the IFTA under any circumstances at all. That was said apparently in November. In January, he actually proposes a bill. He inserts into this motion, all sorts of horrible things, comments, horrible comments about the IFDA.

He thinks that will prevent the IFDA from supporting emotion that is 100% in line with what they have been saying. Mertz is not a politician. He's a fool. the IFD people are politicians and Alice Vidal is nautiful. So the result was, it all blew up in his face. Is it possible, though, for IVE Day, even if it comes out to the first party to govern? I mean, from what I understand, no one will go into a coalition with them. So even if the CDU is in second place, they still end up governing or not.

I mean, is there a pathway for IFDED to? To govern for Alice Weidel to be the chancellor? Unless there is a collapse of the CDU, CSU, between now and the 23rd of February when the election, the election happens, which I can't quite believe still. No, I don't think so. I think, let us say that we get a situation. And these are, I'm just plucking figures out of the year, where the IFDA gets 27%. which is, I think, not inconceivable. And the CDUCSU gets 25%.

I still can't imagine that the president, who's Steinmeyer, who's from the SPD, an absolute political class, would seriously agree to Alice Viesel becoming Chancellor nominee. And I think he would still suggest that Matt's try and form the government. And Mertz would probably try to form the government. And he tried to go into coalition with the SPD and with the Greens. And I mean, the only way that could work is that if all three of those parties then came together and formed the coalition, it would be incredibly unstable, incredibly unpopular. It would be a coalition of losers.

and it would be absolutely the wrong government for Germany at this time. And I don't know how long it would hold together in truth. I wonder if Habek would make a push to become Chancellor. Well, he might do. I mean, bear in mind that of all of the establishment parties, the Greens in some respects look the most solid, because as we've discussed many times, it's an ideological grouping made up of people who have.

are ideologically committed to the Green Project. So it's polling at around 12, 13%, as I understand, and that looks pretty solid. So Harbeck might come along, or even Bearbok. Remember, in the previous election, in the previous election, when he looked for a time as if the Greens might even come first, there was even talk about it. Their proposed person they would have proposed for Chancellor would have been Bearbok. It sounds incredible now. But on the assumption that, as I said, the Greens come through with 13%, they might be able to turn around and say to Schultz and Pastorius and, you know, the other leading figure in the SPD and Mouths as well.

Look, you've all failed. Our party remains solid. We are the most solid party within the German system. Why don't you make... Why did you make Karpak, Chancellor? I cannot imagine Matt's agreeing to that.

I think if he did, there would probably be a split with the CDU. But you never know. I mean, you know, these people are becoming increasingly desperate. And there might be all sorts of weird

and wonderful things done in Germany over the next few weeks. depending, as I said, on what the ultimate outcome of the election is going to be. I can't quite believe that one. Petrusus said, stranger things have happened. What a shame, because Germany cannot afford this. They can't afford Merck, they can't afford Merck, they can't afford any of these people to be anywhere near government.

Absolutely. I mean, the other thing that's happened, and I mean, again, this is something that outsiders or people who don't follow German politics very well are probably not really accustomed to. But tempers have thou broken. I mean, everybody is furious with everybody else. Everybody's using incredibly abusive and strong language by German standards against everybody else. Certainly for a long time now, going all the way back to Helmut Kohlstein, at least, and arguably even beyond some extent, the way German politics works was basically that all these various parties. They're all part of the same political class. They were all friends with each other.

Everybody was very polite with each other. Nobody really said things that were too strong. It wasn't real politics at all. All of that has now disintegrated. Everybody is pointing the fingers at everybody else. Everybody is saying, you're to blame for this mess. No, you are. It's your fault. Nobody's coming up with anything that remotely looks like a viable program. is talking about returning to a more free market approach in German economics, which is, of course, anathlet of the Greens, the SPD, well, I'm not even sure what they really think. Nobody really has a viable economic program for Germany. None of the major political parties do. And as I said, they all now are angry with each other and they're all hating each other.

and they're all hating each other. All right. We will end it there. The durand.orgas.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchie, Telegram, RockFit, and X. Go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update today. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.