The Duran Podcast - France believes it can defeat Russia

Episode Date: April 20, 2025

France believes it can defeat Russia

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine. What is happening on the front lines? I believe the Kersk situation has finally resolved. The 300 narrative in the monastery, I think that has also been cleared out as well. And what's happening in the south, in Kharkiv, in the Zaporja-Herson direction, Are we still looking at a Russian military buildup for a possible offensive in the spring? Right, we're looking at first a continued Russian buildup for an offensive which is definitely coming. That is one.

But secondly, we're also looking at Russian advances at all points of the front line. And we see the Ukrainians increasingly buckling and transferring reserves from one place to another, as they're constantly trying to plug holes. And that is the story. Now, I ought to say that a big Russian offensive is coming. The Russians have already started the first preliminary moves in that offensive. I understand that across Ukraine, the ground is still very soft. It's still very muddy in places.

So this isn't the really big blow. That will probably still come towards the end of May. But the Russians are already moving, and it's looking increasingly difficult for the Ukrainians to hold their positions. But perhaps even more interesting is that we're now getting more information about the size of the buildup. On each side, it's clear the Ukrainian commander, military commander, Sierski, has admitted as much. effectively, it's admitted as much, that the Ukrainians aren't mobilizing enough men to make up their losses. And we now have reports, including studies being done by people in Germany, which show that not only are the Russians mobilizing more than enough men every day to more than

make up their losses, but that people are volunteering for the Russian army in more than enough numbers to enable the Russian army to grow. And it is continuing to grow every day. So every, every day, the balance shifts. The Russian army gets bigger. The Ukrainian army gets smaller. The Russians have continuing to produce huge numbers of weapons every day. Siersky made an extraordinary admission, which is that at the height of the fighting, in the summer, the Russians were firing 40,000 rounds of shells every day. Now, across a whole year, that would translate to something like 14 million shells, which is astonishing. Now, obviously, they weren't firing 40,000 rounds of shells every day. At the moment, according to Sirsky,

they're firing around 28,000 rounds of shells a day. which would point to production rate of around 10 million shells. That's according to Sierski, these are Ukrainian figures. It's clear to me what has happened is that the Russians have stockpiled, large numbers of shells. They did so before the offensive last summer. Presumably they've done this again. Clearly, production in Russia of shells must have grown in order to make this possible. And I'm not going to dispute the widely expressed claim.

I think it's most likely true that the Russians are also importing shells from North Korea. And I'm going to make a guess that those are new-build shells and that North Korean factories are also now involved in producing shells for the Russian army. North Korea has an extensive factory network with skilled workers who are trained to produce large quantities of shells. So we have a situation where the Russians have more shells than they've ever had. They've got more aircraft than they've ever had. They've got more drones, far more drones than the Ukrainians have. And their aircraft, their aviation is getting stronger. And by most accounts, the air defense system in Ukraine is getting more and more ragged

and that there are more and more holes appearing in the air defense system. They are basically out of Patriot missiles. The European systems are of few and not apparently as good as the Patriots. That's at least what the Ukrainians are saying. So the balance, the military balance, is shifting decisively in Russia's favor. And when Putin said a few days ago that the time has come to end this, you can see why he is confident that will happen. Yeah, we're even getting reports out of Germany, which claim that Mertz's rhetoric about the tourist missiles, he's going to change his mind when they break the news to him that the Taurus

missiles absolutely have to be operated and fired and controlled by German military, which would mean that Germany would become 100% a party to the conflict. And there are reports saying that Mertz is going to have to back down from his position. That's what they're saying out of Germany. So even the tourist missile, the next wonder weapon, tourist missile looks like it's not going to happen. Yes. I think that's right. By the way, I would not be surprised if this turns out to be true. I mean, the one thing that Merth does is U-Tur. He does this all the time now. He's done this repeatedly. He did this over the debt break. He did this over migration issues. Why shouldn't he do this all over the tourist missiles as well?

I suspect that the other reason why he's been advised that he can't, that there's no sense in supplying tourist missiles, is because the Americans have said that they're not prepared to provide guidance data for those missiles, in which case, in practical terms, they probably can't be used. Just saying, notice we've been hearing a lot less about storm shadows and scalp missiles recently, and the attack and missiles have completely stopped. And I think the reason is very simple that the Americans are no longer providing guidance information for them. Yeah, exactly. So if Russia goes on the offensive, if they go on the advance, if they start to advance significantly in the next couple of months, do you believe that that first, that first

France and the UK are going to make a move towards the Black Sea, towards Odessa, through Romania? Believe it or not, I do. I really do. I think they're that dumb. I think that that, I think that they're that crazy and that obsessed. Apparently, the French at the very latest coalition of the willing summit told the other Europeans, don't worry, the Russians have taken a a huge, I've struggled to capture even villages. If we arrive in Ukraine, there's no way that they're going to take us on over and above the Ukrainians. Apparently, the French actually said that.

And apparently the other European leaders, those of them that retained some connection to reality, heard this with complete incredulity. and to put it mildly unconvinced. But I think that gives us a sense of the madness, if you like, the obsessiveness with which some people in France, Macron and his circle are approaching this. So I think there will be French troops sent to Adessa. And I think we will probably start to see them appear there in the late summer. That's probably the time when all of this will come together. And then heavens knows what's going to happen.

The Russians will certainly respond. And it could very well be that we're going to start seeing French soldiers going back to France in body bags. And that will trigger, I suspect, a big crisis in France. British soldiers as well, you think? British soldiers as well. I can't imagine Macron sending French troops to Odessa without Stama sending British ones. And what do you think the goal is in all this? Do you think that Macron and Stammer actually believe that Russia is going to be afraid of the French and military forces and they're not going to do

anything? Do you think they actually believe that? Or do you believe that this is all about trying to get the U.S. involved? Once those troops are annihilated by the Russians, then you know that Stammer and Macron are going to go crying to the Trump administration. That's a given. That's what they're going to do. So what do you think the end goal is? Or maybe a little of both. Maybe a little both. I think, I think when Macron first proposed sending French troops to Ukraine, which

was last year, if you remember, after the fall of Avdavka, the objective was absolutely straightforward. It was to suck the Americans into the war. At that time, remember, we're talking about Biden, Blinken, Sullivan. And as we now know, Millie, Kavoli, all of those people. So it was a kind of semi-rational calculation, given how the attitudes of those people, it's understandable why Macron might have thought that if the French army enters Ukraine, the Americans will be there to back it.

I think that now doubts about that have grown. I think, you know, there were those attempts by Macron and Stama back in February to get Trump to commit to providing the British and the French with a backstop. Trump has clearly refused to do that. But if you notice, Macron's Stammer is still pressing on with this. I think that they now have got themselves so committed to this plan that, that they're, they're not going to back off, even if they feel that the Americans are not going to be there. And I think that they are now telling each other that there's no way the Russians are going to take them on, that they're so much better than the Russians, that the Russians are never going

to take them on, and that they can send their troops to Adessa, and all will be okay, and the French will take over Adessa, the British will take over Adessa, the British will take over the Lavalv, things of that kind. I think they really believe that. I think, well, really believe that. I think they talked themselves into believing it. Here's what I think's going to happen. I think we're going to see the Russian Ukraine army started collapse over the course of the summer. I think there's then going to be a rush, another rush to get a ceasefire going. I think they're going to tell what was a Zelensky at some point to declare a unilateral ceasefire and that they're going to have French troops already in Romania and they're going to get the troops from Romania into

Odessa as soon as Zelensky declares that unilateral ceasefire and they hope that the Russians will then be deterred and will observe the ceasefire, which of course isn't going to happen. I mean, the Russians have already made that absolutely clear. But I think that now is the plan. So I'm sorry to say this. I think they are going to do it. And I think Macron has taught himself into believing that he can do it. And I think Stama has the same.

Yeah, that's why it was so important to not have Jorgiascu win in Romania. Exactly. Absolutely. They wanted to prevent any type of block from Romania. So basically, just to wrap up the video, And it makes sense what you're saying. So basically, it will be Zelensky saying that there's going to be a ceasefire. I don't care if Russia agrees to it or not. We're calling a ceasefire. And we're inviting the French military in as a sovereign country. And international law, we can invite a military into our country. And that's what they're going to say. They're going to invite France in. And actually, my final question is, okay, so it's fairly easy for France to get from Romania to Odessa. I mean, it's, it's fairly easy for France to get from Romania to Odessa. I mean, it's, it's a lot. I mean, it's, it's, It's not a long ways off. The French troops in Odessa will Russia, say they're in the city, say they're embedded

in Odessa a couple of thousand French and UK troops, what could Russia possibly do then? I mean, you can't do anything immediately, can it? So I mean, in essence, you could possibly have, I'm not saying it's going to be a huge force because the UK doesn't have a huge force. I don't think France has a huge force. to dedicate to this, but say four or five, six thousand, maybe more troops just kind of enter the city limits of Odessa, the port areas, the city of Odessa, some of the outskirts of Odessa. Does Turkey help out? Because you do have that Black Sea meeting, does Turkey get

involved on the side of France and the UK? I mean, it wouldn't surprise me given, you know, what Erdog, what Erdog gets up to. But, we'll see. What the Russians will do, I think, is they will launch missile strikes against them. Odessa is one of the most heavily bombed cities in Ukraine. And I think that that is exactly what the Russians will do. Of course, we don't know how far or close to Odessa the Russians would be by late summer. I mean, that's the thing. We simply don't know.

We don't know what the Russian military plans are, whether they're going to cross the NEP, whether they're going to stay on their side of the deeper. We simply don't know. But I think that if the French troops appear in the Dessa, the Russians will strike at them. And of course, they'll by then they will have, you know, obviously their existing hypersonic missiles, and they will have Orashnik missiles apparently available in large quantities as well.

So it could be devastating. all right we will end it there the duran dot locals.com we are on rumble odyssey picture telegram rockfin and x go to the durand shop pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update the links in the description box down below take care