The Duran Podcast - France elections. Establishment scrambles to keep Le Pen out

Episode Date: July 1, 2024

France elections. Establishment scrambles to keep Le Pen out

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the first round of parliament elections in France. Huge turnout. Big riots as well. And a big win for Le Pen and National Rally. But not sure if that's going to be enough in the second round to guarantee her a majority in the parliament. we might be heading towards some sort of an impasse, but how did you see the results of the first round? Macron definitely got it hard.

I think Macron is a discredited figure. I mean, his party came third. Let's just look at the results overall. So Le Pen's party, the Rassamplement National, got around, well, got 33% of the vote, a third of the vote, on a high turnout, large numbers of young people now voting for her. She's clearly got momentum.

Le Pen clearly has momentum now. The United Left group, which is a Frankenstein's monster, if I can put it like that, of various left-wing parties, some of which are deeply rivalrous and hostile with each other and who have different opinions about all kinds of different things. Anyway, they came third with around 30%. Now, they have come together basically in order to stop. They came second. They came second, sorry.

They came second. Yeah, they came second around 30%. And they came together essentially with one objective, which is to stop Le Pen. And Macron's party has collapsed to around 20% of the vote, 20, 22% of the vote. So, I mean, Macron is discredited. Whether he stays or goes, he is now a repudiated president in France. Now, as you absolutely rightly say, every lever is now being pulled, every wire is being tugged, everything is being done in order to deny Le Pen and the,

Rassemblement National, a majority in the French Parliament as a result of the run-on votes that happen in the second round. And we're seeing extraordinary coalitions being cobbled together. So we see communists now going to be voting for members of Macron's centrist bloc. We're going to see conservative. capitalists voting for anarcho syndicalists, you know, part of this left wing. Everybody's going to try supposedly to try to come together to stop Le Pen. Now, it might work and it's possible that we will, as a result, have a completely chaotic and broken national assembly.

I don't see how that assists the situation in France. will have a discredited and disliked president, and we will have a fragmented parliament. It will only make the situation in France worse. The logical thing is to let Le Pen's party, already to allow Le Pen's party to achieve its majority, which it is clearly trending towards, and to take the responsibility in France of forming

the next government. Creating a chaotic situation in France, in my opinion, is more likely to provoke ultimately a economic and political crisis. And those who think that that is going to stop Le Pen, I'm going to suggest that on the contrary, it is more likely when the presidential election comes, and I still believe it will come sooner rather than later. It's more likely at that point to result in Le Pen winning the election with an even bigger majority. Why do these groups want to prevent Le Pen from having a majority from governing? What makes her so controversial to say the conservative capitalists? You mentioned the group, the centrist capitalists that maybe supports Makkahro?

on the globalists. I mean, is she that much of a threat? Because I look at Le Pen as as something similar, a person who could be similar to, to say, a Maloney. That may be where her governing style will tread towards. I don't know, maybe, but is she that radical of a figure? No, she's not that radical of the figure. And, you know, you make comparisons with Georgia Maloney in Italy, and I agree with those. comparisons. I think she's a much more, you know, mainstream figure than people are making up. But as I've also pointed out many, many times, if you compare Le Pen's programme, or at least not perhaps her current programme, but the programme that she used to have just a few years ago, which many

people found even more far right and even more extreme. It was very, very similar to that of Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s. In fact, it was essentially the same as Charles de Gaulle's in the 1960s. Charles de Gaulle believed in an independent France. He wanted a Europe of nation-states, not an integrated Europe. He wanted friendly relations with Russia. And he had, a certain aloofness from the United States, even though ultimately he remained an ally of the United States. And again, like Marine Le Pen, he was an opponent of immigration. So I mean, this is goalism. Le Pen's policies or program, which of course she has since moderated, is simply goalism in its modern form. There is a purpose.

party, the L'Ere Poublican, who claimed to be the continuous of De Gaulle's legacy, but in reality it is Le Pen, who is much closer to what De Gaulle actually stood for and the policies that he had as President of France than they are. What has happened and the real problem in France and the true reason why there is this fierce opposition to Le Pen, where it's twofold. Firstly, they're very adept now at countering up, you know, the old specters of Vichy, of the 1930s, of all of that, even though there is no basis to any of this in anything that that Le Pen says or stands for or indeed has ever really said. But secondly, all of the parties in France left, right and centre, including.

even the Communist Party, though not entirely, the Communist Party still has some interesting, well, some, you know, divergent thinkers. But all of the parties in France, to a greater or lesser extent, other than Le Pen's, and even to some extent, Le Penes, have now become assimilated into the Europeanist neoliberal system. And to the extent that Le Penhain, still stands for a return to goalism. That is, of course, unacceptable because it is completely contrary to the doctrines of the neoliberal system.

And that is really the reason for all the hysteria, all the tantrums, all the attempts to mobilize all of the parties. We speak of the Communist Party and the anarchic party, and all of those parties. Ultimately, they are much closer to each other than their various labels might suggest.

They're just different spectrums of the neolib, neocon. Yeah. Blab, I guess you could say. I mean, what else did you call the uniparty? I don't even know that Le Penh herself is that different. But for some reason, they believe that she is. And for that reason, they're doing everything they possibly can. to stop her becoming president of France.

And the result is France's internal situation is deteriorating. If they succeed in the second round in denying her party a majority, we're going to get more chaos and drift in France. And of course, ultimately, it is going to lead to some kind of a breakdown and perhaps eventually, in fact, I believe eventually, to an even greater Le Penhain. victory, though what she will do with that victory remains to be seen. What happens to Macron?

Does he remain, does he remain a discredited, a toxic president for two, two, three more years? Does he take on that role? Maybe he only deals with foreign policy stuff and doesn't even bother with domestic issues at all. Do we have a national rally prime minister, even if, even if there is an impasse? does he does he call it quits if there's an impasse well

I personally I still personally think that sooner or later he's going to go and I say sooner or later I mean sometime within this year maybe even within the next few weeks the fact is he has lost control

of the French parliament conclusively and you talked about foreign policy it's absolutely correct that the President of France controls foreign policy, the foreign minister and the defence minister take their instructions from him, not from the Prime Minister. But what we have in the French Parliament is a situation where two-thirds of the MPs, presumably, or at least two-thirds of the votes in the election,

have gone to parties which categorically reject his foreign policy. Both the Frankenstein left movement and Le Penz party and the various other minor parties that lie to the left, to the right of Le Penz, and which are to some extent aligned with her, all agree on certain things, which is, of course, that they reject Project Ukraine and that they're deeply skeptical about further integration,

or at least that is what they say. So the French voters have overwhelmingly in an election with a high turnout backed parties that oppose President Macron's foreign policy. Now, of course, he might try and hold out and remain president, in the face of all of that. But I suspect that if he does, you mentioned how toxic he's become, I think it will mobilize more opposition to him

and to his policies within the French National Assembly. I think that there is at least a possibility that rather than face what will almost certainly be a recurring series of crises, whatever the outcome, I mean, if the Rassemblement National wins a majority, he'll have to coexist with a French Prime Minister, Jordan Bardela, who leads the Rassonlement National in Parliament,

who is deeply opposed to his ideas and who he passionately dislikes. If he's able to stop the Rassonement National at forming a government, well, because they'll be denied a majority and they will lack coalition partners. where we will have an even more chaotic situation, where we will have a government that is completely incapable of governing France and where there will be constant chaos and problems and a government likely to collapse at the first crisis. So I don't think Macron really wants to be tied up with any of that.

He knows that the French are rejecting his policies. he looks at the situation in the parliament. He sees very bad choices ahead for him there. I still think more likely than not he will go. What happens, right? What happens with Project Ukraine, just to wrap up the video, with all of this uncertainty and this chaos that we have in France, that is coming.

Even after July 7th, I think we're still going to have a lot of uncertainty deal with the situation in France. What happens with Project Ukraine? Does it matter? Does it matter who wins a majority in Parliament, who becomes the prime minister, whether Macron stays or goes? France is definitely part of the NATO-U.S. system. But it's not as captured and controlled as Germany. Yes, it is part of the system. It is controlled to a certain extent. But we're not talking about a country like Germany, which is from top to top to bottom, completely run by the United States. So, I mean, you know, France does exert a bit of independence, a bit, but it does exert it. What happens with Project?

Right. Well, I'm going to mention, I'm going to discuss Germany in a moment because bear in mind I'm here, and I've been having discussions with all kinds of people here. But let me first of all deal with France. I think this makes continuing project Ukraine. a lot more difficult. Because to repeat again, two-thirds of the French have voted for parties, which they believe are opposed to Project Ukraine. Now, of course, the parties might simply do what they regularly have been doing, which is, well, we've got the votes. Now we can turn around

and start backing Project Ukraine. And, you know, moving forward and continuing to vote the appropriations and agree to all the programmes for supporting project Ukraine. But I've just been here in Germany. I've had discussions with various people. These are all, of course, anecdotal discussions. I've talked to some young people. I've been very careful not to try to prompt people into expressing views. I want to make this very clear. These have just been conversations. And one of the things that have struck me, and I am, of course, in Western Germany, very much in the heartland of the old West Germany, you know, the one that existed before the fall of the wall, is the project Ukraine continuously comes up, and especially for younger people, it is indeed, exactly as some of the

opinion polls are saying, becoming the crystallising issue. It's the thing that differentiates for them, those parties that they trust because they oppose Project Ukraine, from those parties which they don't trust, which are the ones that are in government or which look like they might support Project Ukraine if they became the government. Now, you're absolutely right in saying that in France, the political system is far less tied up and closed down than it is in Germany. So, of course, the parties in France simply turn their backs on what they said to the electors and just go on supporting project Ukraine, you're going to inevitably get an even bigger reaction in France than you're probably seeing in Germany. You're going to start getting intense, even greater cynicism

amongst the French. And of course, in France, with this very, you know, important, volatile, revolutionary tradition and history, it becomes almost inevitable, I would have said, that Project Ukraine will then indeed become the major crystallizing issue and will lead to political forces that are actually committed to stopping it, starting to win important votes in local and national elections. Now I think that this is well understood, certainly on the part of some of the left-wing parties, and also on the part of the Rassamblement Nacional. So I think more likely than not, whatever their personal feelings and views, since all of these parties want to be in power in some form, and they probably know that one way or the other, they're not going to

going to get parachuted into globalist and EU institutions if they fail. I think we will probably start to see more opposition to project Ukraine in France, in the French Parliament, less willingness to support more funding for Ukraine, more opposition to transfers of weapons. In fact, I'm going to suggest that the turning point, on project Ukraine has been reached and that in France especially the people are now turning their back on it all right we will

end the video there the durand.orgas.com we are on rumble odyssey bitchy, telegram, Rockfin and TwitterX and go to the Duran shop pick up some limited edition merch the link is in the description box down below take care