The Duran Podcast - France wants conflict freeze. Russia said NO

Episode Date: April 6, 2024

France wants conflict freeze. Russia said NO

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the phone call initiated by France. That's important between the French defense minister Le Cornu and the Russian defense minister Sergeiqishogu. What was this call about? The Russian readout, the Russian readout says they talked about a peace negotiation, which is interesting. They discussed French troops in Ukraine, or at least Shoygoo warned France about troops in Ukraine. The French readout says that they discussed ISIS and the terrorist attack and how they're upset with Russia, which is claiming that France might have had something to do

with it. So that's what the French readout says. And the French readout says there was no talk about negotiations, specifically negotiations based on Turkey, 22, the borders from the negotiation in Turkey in 2022. France is denying all of it. What are your thoughts on the telephone? I believe the Russians here. I should say, I should add that the Russian readout is borderline rude. I mean, it's one of the most, if that was one of those scathing readouts I've ever seen.

I mean, it's incredibly short and, you know, stiff. And it starts by saying, you know, that, you know, Shoygu responded. to this urgent call from the French, repeated attempts by the French to call him, which in itself is significant, by the way. I mean, you know, that they're barely badgering the Russians to speak to the Russians. And, you know, eventually, Shoygu, the way the Russians presented is almost dragged to the telephone

to speak to Lerf Kornu. And the impression that the Russians give, and I'm sure this is the correct impression, is that the Russians just blew the French. French apart that Shoy Goode just, as I said, steamrolled over Look or New in this conversation. Now, why would the French call just to discuss the ISIS attack? I mean, that really doesn't make any kind of sense. I mean, the Americans have said all that needs to be said about that from the Western side. There's been an awful lot more going on. There's a investigation underway.

I am sure that the French were discussing more things, just possibly they were probing, trying to find out what information the Russians have. But then the Russians are not going to disclose that over a telephone call. And it's stupid to think this. My take on this is that the French, who are perfectly well aware that the situation in Ukraine is falling apart and that Ukraine is losing. And we've now had admissions about this from NATO. There's a piece by Edward Lutvac somewhere in which he says that Ukraine is about to be defeated

and the West was sent troops in it because if they don't, Ukraine is going to lose. I think the French understand this perfectly well. And I think they were trying to do two things. Firstly, they were trying to see whether they could get the Russians to ease back on French deployments in Ukraine. the Russians are given all kinds of warnings that if the French sent troops to Ukraine, those troops will be targeted. And I think the French are nervous about that. They wanted to find out whether that was really the case.

And I think they were trying to float some kind of way forward towards some kind of settlement or conflict freeze. And I suspect we've seen there's been a lot more of this going on. privately and behind the scenes than we know a couple of, two weeks ago, Putin actually said, and I remember noticing it at the time, and he was talking about this in this interview with Dmitri Kiselyov, the Russian journalist. He was saying that, you know, all kinds of people are now coming to the Russians, telling them that, you know, it's time to talk about freezing the conflict. He spoke about these being dangerous people. If you remember, he said that there's

no sense in having a ceasefire simply because the other side is out of ammunition. I mean, that was what Putin said. And I know I'm increasingly coming to think that quietly, behind the scenes, the Russians have been getting these messages from Macron. And Macron is the person that Putin meant when he talked about particularly dangerous people. who are trying to lure the Russians into some kind of negotiation. And as I said, sure, you could just blew the whole thing apart. He said, you know, we're not interested. We're not, if you do send your troops to Ukraine, well, their targets.

It's not going to turn out well for you. It was a very menacing, actually, thing that was said in that readout. But no different from what the Russians, by the way, have already said. And he also said, clearly, we're not interested in a freeze. If you want to talk peace, if you want to have a dialogue, we're prepared to enter into a dialogue. And we're not going back to Istanbul, if that's what your idea is, then we are prepared to take some of the things that were discussed in Istanbul as a starting point for future discussions. In other words, the Russians are not pulling back on anything.

And I'm going to make another suggestion, which is, I think that the French probably asked the Russians to keep details of this call confidential. And the Russians published their readout and Macron's court. And it's very angry about it. and that's why they've hurriedly put out their own readout and why Macron is obviously upset. So again, a good example of Macron being overcomplicated. He's talking about sending troops to Ukraine. He's trying to get leverage over the Russians. He's trying to find some way to negotiate and he's making an absolute pig's ear of it.

He doesn't know how to do it. He doesn't know how to talk to the Russians. And all he's doing is he's feeding Russian suspicions and making the Russians more. angry. Yeah, no doubt about it that this phone call was all about some sort of negotiation based on the 2022 borders, the negotiations that took place in Turkey, because Zelensky even said that that there, or he hinted, he hinted, he hinted, he hinted at the fact that he would be open to talking 22 borders in the interview that he gave to the Washington Post. So there's no about it that they're trying to figure out a way to lure the Russians into agreeing to

to the Turkish deal that they once had in place two years ago. That's the problem. So I think there's no doubt about it. Macaron was asked about this the other day, by the way, from reporters about the phone call. The Macron said that France initiated the phone call because it had information with regards to the Moscow terrorist attack, which is just a bunch of bullocks. We know that. That's what Makron told reporters. But here's my question. You can comment on what I've just said if you also believe that it's, I believe without a doubt, 100% that they want to talk about Minsk 3, 2002 borders. But my other question is, do you believe that Blinken told Macron to do this? Because Blinken was in Paris at that time. Yes. The short answer is yes. And the big question is whether Blinken has the full backing of the president. and of the administration. But we've discussed this many times. The administration is worried about the election in November. They don't want to see a military collapse in Ukraine before then. Way back last

year, they were talking about, there was all that, those ideas being floated about a freezing of the conflict. Then, if you remember, in the late autumn, they started talking about a stalemate, the talk about freezing the conflict sort of went away. Now they understand that the conflict isn't frozen and the Russians are winning. So they're now trying to find some way to get the Russians to agree to a freeze. And they're getting the raspberry. The Russians are saying no. They're saying no in public.

They're saying no in private. And by the way, and it is not a coincidence, directly after the call between Shogu and Le Corneau. Lavrov, the foreign minister, gave a lengthy interview in which he set out the Russian position

very, very fully. And he said Istanbul was destroyed. The West destroyed it. So there is no going back to that. I mean, he made that crystal clear. And he said, yes, we are prepared to negotiate. But only on the base.

of realities. We're not going to go to do things simply because the West is in trouble and wants us to get them out of trouble. I mean, that's obviously not what the Russians are going to do. So it backfired. And I completely agree with you. I mean, I think that this idea that this is not about negotiations is an absurd one. Blinken, of course, also went to Paris, as you rightly say. He gave this interview to the media, I think it was CBS. He said that there is no way, no to the French media, sorry. He said that there is no way that the Russians are going to take Kiev. He seemed to be making it look as if Kiev is really the big issue now,

which again reinforces the view that he's looking for some way to agree to a settlement, and freeze with the Russians retaining control of the territories they had pre-2020 in eastern Ukraine. Again, as I said, I mean, it's all fantasy stuff. And by the way, coming back to Lavrov, Lavrov said that all the things that Zelensky would say was just absurd. Why would the Russians agree to this? It would be that that could result in the downfall.

of the Putin administration if he were to agree to something like this. I mean, you want to figure out a way to really hurt Putin's government is get him to agree to a freeze, given the realities of what we see on the front lines. Absolutely. You know, why would the Russians, you know, pick defeat, pluck defeat from the jaws of victory? They're about to win. I mean, why would they settle for something like that? if the West made a colossal miscalculation in Istanbul, you know, two years ago, you know, sabotaging torpedo in the Istanbul agreement. But bear in mind that they're still talking about Ukraine joining NATO. I mean, Blinken is still talking about that eventually.

So, I mean, even though they talk about Istanbul, they're not really except. all parts of Istanbul. They say, you know, Russia, you can keep what you had pre-February 2022, but the rest of Ukraine can still join NATO someday. Exactly what the Russians have always said is unacceptable. Why the Russians would agree to something like this is beyond understanding. I can only assume that Blinken still hasn't accepted and Macron still hasn't accepted, that all the things that the Ukrainians have been telling them about, you know, the fact that the Russians have suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties lost, thousands upon thousands of tanks, all that story about, you know, Russia having been severely hurt and damaged by all of this. They still haven't accepted that all that which they're getting from the Ukrainians is simply not true. They still believe that the Russians are bleeding far worse than they really are.

Yeah, you know what I think the whole Ukraine-NATO thing is all about. I think it's about two things. Let me throw these theories at you. I think the first thing that the whole, you know, NATO is going to become, Ukraine is going to become a member of NATO, what Lincoln said in Brussels. I think one, it's about dangling NATO to Ukraine so they can keep Ukraine fighting, at least until the November elections, right? Siersky, Yermak, Padoliyak, Zelensky.

give up. You're going to get into NATO eventually. We don't know when, but you will get in, but just keep motivated and just keep on fighting. So I think that's one reason why they, why Blinken is talking so much about Ukraine getting into NATO. The other reason, I think this is the big one, I think that Blinken and Sullivan and all these guys, they think they're clever. And in their mind, they're saying, oh, you know what we can hold is leverage over Russia so that they can agree to a freeze? We can hold Ukraine membership into NATO. That's, that's, that. That's the big card that we have that we can hold over Russia. And I bet you the Russians are just like we don't care.

We're going to continue to do what our objectives are telling us to do. I think you may. That's what I think they're thinking these guys, Sullivan and blinking of these guys. I think you may very well be right. I suspect Macron thinks the same, by the way. I mean, this is the kind of overcomplicated, stupid, clever thinking. that these kind of people are engaging all the time. I mean, they think that they're playing some kind of four-dimensional chess. In reality, by harping on about Ukraine and NATO all the time,

what they're doing is incentivizing the Russians to continue the war, because the Russians are hearing all of this. They have learned by now not to trust the West. But did said so. I mean, he's said, I don't trust anybody any longer. I don't trust anybody in the West any longer. So they're hearing all of this and they say to themselves, well, you know, what the West is trying to tell us in private is completely different from what they're saying in public. Why should we believe their assurances? Every assurance they've given us in the past hasn't meant anything at all. If they're playing some complicated game, that's their problem. We're not interested in their games. We're just going to go on and finish the job, which we are very

effectively and successfully doing now in Ukraine. And as Putin put it, we're not going to agree to cease one simply because the other side is out of ammunition. I mean, that is just ridiculous. I mean, just a final question, a final comment. When you think about it, the West to the United States, NATO, they have absolutely nothing to offer Russia if they do sit down for negotiations. I mean, we'll lift the sanctions. Russia's going to say, so what? 7% growth in February. They're going to say, so what? I mean, what do they have to offer the Russians to agree to a negotiation?

To a 2022, sorry, to a 2022 borders. What do they have to offer Russia to agree? Nothing. I mean, the Russians won't accept the 22 borders. I think that has to be made absolutely clear. As far as Russia is concerned, they've passed laws. They've had referendums whereby the whole of Dombas, Heron and Zaporozia regions are part of Russia.

They're not going to withdraw back to the 2022 borders and give up all of that. The Russian constitution doesn't permit it. And people who say that the Russian constitution doesn't have any meaning in this are delusional. Again, they're not following how Russia thinks. and how it behaves. And it's the intense legalism of the Putin government, which by the way reflects the legalism of Russian society altogether. So, I mean, there is no way that the Russians

are putting back to the 22 borders. Now, a more sensible proposal might be to concede all of the four territories to Russia, tell the Russian. Russians, Ukraine is not going to enter NATO, not now, not ever. Come to an agreement with that. And then negotiate with the Russians, tell the Russians, we're prepared to sit down now and negotiate about your two treaties, your two draft treaties, that you proposed to us in December 2021. Now, if the West did that, I think the Russians might say to themselves, some Russians might say to themselves, right, you know, we want

guarantees. We want Ukrainian troops to withdraw completely from the four regions. We would probably want Russian troops stationed in some other parts of Ukraine, Odessa, whatever, I don't know, but we would nonetheless be prepared to sit down and talk about the 2021 treaty, which after all, we proposed. But of course, the West isn't remotely close to that position. But I don't see the Russians accepting anything less. And I think the sooner that is understood, you know, the better. Yeah, I would imagine that Russia would also demand the denatification of Ukraine. No Bandera streets, no Bandera statues.

Russia, Russian is an official language. I mean, there's no way that Europe or the U.S. would never go away. The dissolution. The dissolution. Exactly. The dissolution of the Azov Brigade. the right sector. They've talked about trials for the people who were involved in all the various activities. They're not going to accept less. I think it is all but inconceivable that they will.

Now, as I said, if you're going to talk about the security situation in Europe, that might interest though, but nothing less. That's why Sullivan and Blinkett, they actually think that Ukraine and NATO is their big leverage play. That's what they think. Well, absolutely. That's what's going through these guys' heads. Yeah, and I think also they do think that, you know, offering to lift sanctions might be an incentive because I don't think they follow Russian economic news, the way that we do.

7.7% GDP growth in February and growth even higher apparently in March. That's what the central bank is selling us. So, and the BMI figures are telling us. So, you know, why would the Russians what the sanctions lifted? Yeah. Look, at the end of the day, the Russians, they accomplish something that, I imagine, 80% of the world would love to accomplish, which is they're out of the system and they're thriving.

I mean, that's an amazing accomplishment. Absolutely. All right. All you can believe, or you can believe Reuters. which says that the Russians can't repair their refineries. They've lost 14% of their refining capacity and that they can't repair their refineries. I mean, if people really want to go on believing that kind of nonsense,

then there's really nothing one can say. But, I mean, suffice to say that that's absolutely rubbish. Just keep on, keep on. Yeah, keep on with these little pinprick attacks that knock in oil refinery, damage in all refinery every now and then. let's have the price of gas go up and then we'll see how how much Biden is is going to be liking this strategy you know come come August or September when when everyone's complaining about the price of gasoline in the United States yeah this is going to

boomerang right back at the United specifically at the Biden campaign yeah no doubt about the stories and more and more money for Putin more money for Russia exactly exactly The whole thing is just, I mean, there are so many absurdities and, you know, flaws and the logic of this. It's pointless even spending to wasting time on it, to be honest. All right. We'll leave it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumbleoddycy, pitch, telegram, rock, fin, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop.

Get some limited edition merch. Link is in the description box down below. Take care.