The Duran Podcast - Front line update following Oreshnik strike w/ Patrick Lancaster

Episode Date: November 27, 2024

Front line update following Oreshnik strike w/ Patrick Lancaster

All right, Alexander, we are here with Patrick Landcaster, joining us for recording so that Patrick can give us an update as to what is going on in the conflict in Ukraine. Patrick, great to have you with us on this show. Before we get started, Patrick, where can people follow your work? Yeah, well, first of all, thanks for having me on again, guys. It's always great to be here. It's great that we can put out information to the world

that they're not actually able to see in many other places. As far as my work, I've been covering the war for 10 years, not just this two-year part of it, but the whole 10-year war, as you guys know. And I mainly put my work out on my YouTube channel, Patrick Lancaster, but also now I'm working on a new platform substack. I really would like as many of your viewers to go and check out my in-depth dives of my reports

and many other topics on substack. So if people could go to the substack and subscribe, they're going to get a lot more information than they would just on my YouTube channel or other social media. All right, I have the link to Patrick's YouTube channel as well as his substack in the description box down below and as a pinned comment as well.

So, Alexander, Patrick, we have a lot to discuss with regards to what is happening in Ukraine. So let's begin. Let us indeed begin because there's no one better on the location to give us a sense of what is going on. And I'm going to say this. The mood in Western capitals is becoming very, very edgy and very, very nervous at the moment. And the reason it is becoming edgy and nervous is. is because it's now becoming clear that the front lines are moving and starting to move very, very fast.

I was reading just before we started this program a report by Reuters, British News Agency, which semi-official British News Agency, they said that the Russians captured around 235 square kilometers of territory last week. That's just in one week, that they advanced, that they gained as much territory as half of London, half of the area of London in one week, that they're advancing fast, that they're taking places like Corachovu, that they're well, they're close to capturing Korachovu, they're doing all of these things. And this has created enormous amount of worry and fear. And in fact, panic.

I think panic is not too strong a word in Western capitals at the moment. Now, Patrick, you are closer to the situation than any of us is, certainly much closer to the situation than the people who wrote that article in Reuters were. I should say there was an article in the BBC about a week ago that spoke about the Ukrainian lines, front lines, being at risk in a few weeks. weeks or months of collapse. What I've heard from people who've been in wars and who are on the offensive is that there is sometimes a degree of exhilaration about this. What is the situation? What is the mood amongst the soldiers, the Russian soldiers you've been seeing and meeting?

I mean, are they feeling confident? Is this still very, very tough fighting? What is their mood at the present time. And can you perhaps say a little bit about whether there have been these big advances and, you know, what these advances amount to? I mean, are they cities, are they countryside, are the rural villages? Tell us a little bit about that. Yeah, Alexander. So, as you say, the front is definitely moving at an expedited pace. And really, it seems like this all-stimed, from the initial taking by Russian forces of the suburb of Divka, the very stronghold over a year ago now. And, you know, a lot of it's being reported that it's,

oh, it's just all coming out of thin air right now that Trump was reelected. You know, I don't believe in everything as a coincidence. But the fact is, Russia has been making headway. since they took the castle, the fortress of Divka, over a year ago. Constance, if not, new town every week, something like that. But as we know now, it's gone from every week taking considerable amounts to every day taking new villages or new towns. And in fact, today the Russian Minister of Defense announced that they just hours ago

took control of the Kopanke village in the Harkov region. Now this isn't in the Danyetsk, Lugans, Her Son, Zaporosia, or Kurs. This is the Harkov region. And supposedly it's not a very big village, but had a population of just over 100 before the war. But the fact is that it's a strategic location on the road to different locations. So on multiple fronts, they are making headway.

Russia is taking more control of territory from the Ukrainian forces. If we talk about the situation in Karakawa now, the Karakkaovah is somewhat of a cauldron, mostly surrounded on many sides, and the Russian forces, released a video day before yesterday, if not yesterday morning early, showing the Russian forces inside the center of Karakow. And even pro-Ukrainian maps are showing Russia controlling about

half of the city, including half of the center. Now, when that city falls, what is expected is, is many of the Russian soldiers that are able to retreat and evacuate are going to leave that cauldron. And that caldron, which is basically like this, with Karakava here, is going to close, as we've seen many times before. So in that area, the front line is going to be moving about 30 to 40 kilometers like that in a day

when they take just that, when Russia takes just that one is city. And at the edge of that cauldron where it's going to be the new front line is just next to the end of the Dynetsk region. We're talking just a few kilometers. So it's going to be a huge milestone, you could say, for Russian forces in the Danyetsk region or Dynets Republic, whatever you want to call it, whoever wants called on whatever side. The fact is that Russia is about to take a huge trunk of territory in that region.

And also I've been going to different areas where the refugees have been evacuated and assisted to leave the frontline areas by Russian forces to get their idea of exactly what's going to happen. And unfortunately, just been getting horrible stories like a woman who was at her to knock at her door. and the soldiers identified themselves as Russian forces, and she opened the door in happiness to see Russian forces had come. And it was a Ukrainian soldier lying, and purportedly reported by these eyewitnesses, her son was shot and she was shot. You know, just one of the many horrible stories of war crimes

that are going on on the front line. And that's, you know, by Ukrainian forces. They just, the civilian refugees evacuated these areas, said that the Ukrainian soldiers came to their village and knew that they were holdouts waiting for Russia to come. I mean, by the fact that they stayed and didn't evacuate, the Ukrainian soldiers identified them as traitors and separatists or terrorists, as they call them,

and told them, we're here to kill you, and we're going to burn your village before we leave. These are not my words. These are words of the refugees that were evacuated by Russian forces about the actions of Ukrainian forces. So, yeah, the front lines definitely moving. And, yeah, I mean, at an expedited pace, like you said. Expoedip, is that.

Yeah. I mean, a story about the refugee is shocking. Can I just ask you? Have you heard this report that has appeared? And it's, I mean, there's no doubt that this is a genuine scandal in Ukraine. A Ukrainian, I think, is an MP, has come forward and said that large numbers of people who had left Donbass and gone to, you know, for like central Ukraine, are now returning to Donbass, to Russian-controlled areas. This is, by the way, reported by the London Times. it created something of a scandal, apparently, in Ukraine itself,

and he then retracted what he said. But there are reports that other Ukrainian officials have confirmed this. Have you seen anything like that? Have you seen people coming from Ukraine back to Donbass, to places like Marupol and people of that kind? Because he spoke of 150,000 people returning. Just asking. Well, I can tell you how the situation on transit is,

right now from one side of the front line to the other. Before Russia came in in 2022, there was, and before the coronavirus situation, there were possibilities to cross the front line because in a lot of times the fighting was less. There was less battle in sometimes or another, sometimes it's heavy. But fact is, a lot of times, of times there were ways to cross. There were checkpoints opened for the civilians to go back and forth across the front line. And a lot of them did that at the time, but it was closed during the coronavirus and of course during the heat of Russia and the real war starting two years ago. But right now the situation is

For civilians on the Ukrainian side To get to the Russian control side There's two ways as I said wait for Russia to get to them If they're in an area that's close to the front line Or take a trip around The war zone basically Through Europe in things like this.

So it's not so easy, but it is happening. I can tell you that. And as far as Mariupil you mentioned, I can say that when Russia took control of Mariupil and the restoration of the area started, many people who had left Mariupil, this is a little bit of a different topic, but still kind of similar,

who had left Mariupil when Ukraine maintained control of it 10 years ago, they had left and gone to the Danyetsk controlled area. They have gone back to Mariupol. So a lot of the population that was gone for 10 years has gone back from the anti-government controlled and now Russian-controlled territory. It's a pretty complicated going here and there, but yes, it is happening.

I can put it like that. It is happening. Yeah. Okay, can I ask you about something else, which is something that you've reported extensively about the only Western journalists I know who has reported about it, which is about the shelling of Donetsk, which was a recurring thing right from 2014. Now, the front line has moved a long way from Donetsk.

Has that shelling now finally finished? I mean, Avdevka, that you mentioned, has fallen, Krasnogorovka has fallen, all of the other places nearby have fallen. The Ukrainians have been pushed back a very significant distance. They still have long-range missiles, as we know. They still have high-mass missiles, which I believe are still within range. But has there been a cessation of the shelling of Dornets, or at least an abatement of it? Well, as far as the city of Danyetsk, it's getting a lot better, but it hasn't stopped. It's nothing like it was when you

controlled of Dievka. The fact is that when Ukraine controlled Adepk in a lot of the surrounding areas, including Pesky as well, they were using these fortresses, as I called, of Diyivka, as a base to just hammer Danyetsk. And basically, when went from the time when the center of Dniez was just being hammered every day, every hour by Western-supplied weapons,

weapons and at that time the center of Dynetsk was about eight kilometers from the Ukrainian controlled territory where you could crane could launch now it has gotten considerably farther I believe during the first moments of Russia taking control of Abidivka it was about to went from eight to about between 18 to 20 and I think it's pushing 25 to 30 kilometers from from the front line at this point, somewhere around there, but considerably farther than it was before. So yes, there's shelling in some of the hot zones

on the edge of the city, like Petrovka and other areas, but nothing like it was before. But unfortunately, homes are getting destroyed every day, people are getting injured every day. But what has really turned into almost you could call the new Danyetsk, as far as the intensity of the attacks, is Gorlufka.

It's one of the most populated cities in the Danyetsk area. And unfortunately, I was just there a couple days ago of filming a special short film on the situation, and it's just horrible. We're talking over 25,000 people without electricity and water because of the attacks

on the infrastructure by Ukraine, attacks on the civilian infrastructure. We're talking about in the last months, month, month and a half, there's been over 10 city buses, civilian city buses hit by Ukrainian FPV

or kamikaze drones or these kind of drones, Ukrainian drone fly over the city, look down with a camera and they see in live time a civilian bus, and then some operator decides and or is told to hit that civilian bus with this kamikaze drone

that is carrying explosives and explode on the top of the bus and injure or kill civilians. It happened over 10 times the last month and a half. Just horrible situation. And while I was there, the very center of the city, unfortunately. I had just been there about 10 minutes before. We were going to another heavily hit area where another woman was killed.

But the very center, the busiest point of the city, right across the street from the administration, the city hall basically, and right at the door of the main bank of the city, a set of United States supplied cluster bomb. cluster bombs were dropped from a US-supplied 155 millimeter artillery shell that was fired by Ukraine over the city. And 12 people were injured, just in that one attack by this U.S. supplied cluster bombs. And it was just one 155 millimeter rocket that dropped these little bombs down. They're just about this big. And they come down and just spray shrapnel with the point of injuring and killing people.

So just right in the busiest center intersection of the city at just before 1 o'clock in the afternoon on the lunch break. And I think you told this just before we started the program. Golivka is the second biggest city in Dombas, or at least it's a major population center. So they are targeting this big population center. And there's no, tell us, is there any military logic to these attacks? Because the way you describe it, these appear to be attacks specifically against civilians. But, I mean, are there many military facilities at the center of Gorlivka that, you know, could be attacked in that way, could be rationalized or explained in that fashion, not say it can be justified, but is there some kind of military logic?

behind this because I've never been able to see it with Donetsk. I don't know what the situation is with Golifka, though. I mean, this was, there's no way that they could explain away the fact of launching these cluster bombs over a city center in the rush hour at lunch hour. I mean, this reminds me of when they launched a cluster, the bigger Tochko Outscher cluster bomb over Center Dignetsk in March of 2022. And, you know, unfortunately, that killed dozens. This just injured a dozen because the American cluster bombs are considerably smaller.

But, getting a little off topic, as far as military forces in the city, of course every city in a war zone has some soldiers going back and forth here or there but in this area that this cluster bomb hit no it's just the main street literally the main thoroughfare of the city and we saw this done so many times it done yet it's killing so many i mean uh it's just horrible and in in hitting these civilian buses it's got to to the point where they've had to put some anti-prone countermeasure on the city buses just to help, try to help with jamming some of these drones that come in. Bus drivers are said to be driving with detectors to try to have some sort of warning

about these incoming drones that are targeting city buses. I mean, it's just, and at the same time, the only reason that I wasn't at that center intersection, because I went to another location towards the edge of the city where a woman was killed making tea in her kitchen when a shell hit just outside her door in her garden, and she had a piece of shrapnel go right through her brain. And there was no civilians, or there was no military there either. I mean, all this is, you know, these aren't, you know, things that I'm coming up with. All this will be able to be seen fully on my film that should be out later this week on Gorlivka, City Under Siege.

And, you know, and they've been targeting the water infrastructure. You know, it was a bit farther towards the front. We weren't able to get there, but there's a huge geyser, you could say, of just water spraying out that just being wasted, not getting to the people. Like I said, over 25,000 without electricity, which changes every day because they fix some things one day and another day, things in another place

these substations get destroyed. The substations are getting targeted. So, yeah, there's no irsands or butts about Ukraine targeting civilians, targeting civilian infrastructure using civilians as a weapon of

war. And I ask the civilians, why is Ukraine doing this. They say because Ukraine wants to kill us. Ukraine doesn't want us here. They want us to leave so they can take this area, but it's our area, their land. That's what they say. And these are people

that had Ukraine. Yeah. I mean, even that Russian health is collapsing now because the Ukrainians have been pushed back. Tell me, what is the mood in Donetsk? And indeed in Gorlifka, now are people becoming more confident? Do they feel

that this war is coming to an end? that victory is in sight? Is there an improvement in civilian morale? Or are people just getting on with their lives, getting by in these still very difficult conditions? Well, I asked people about what they thought about Trump being reelected and how that would affect the war. I both asked civilian refugees and actually Russian military citizens.

snipers. And more or less, I got the same answers. They're hoping for peace. And we're talking the civilians and the military. They're hoping for peace. And maybe to one person, peace means something else or how it can get there. But the fact is, everybody's tired of war and they want this war to end. So they hope that Trump's going to do something to push the world in the right direction so people stopped dying on both sides. Because, I mean, this war, you know, it's one thing for all of Russia. It's going on the three-year mark soon.

But the civilians have Dunbass. This has been going on for 10 years. So something needs to happen to get this over with. And, you know, Degnets, I mean, right now, there's five regions of what Russian law considers, says it's Russia territory that have Ukrainian soldiers on them. Regardless what side, you know, people out there favor. The fact is, Russian law says these five regions are part of Russia and they need to do something to stop, to remove a foreign force from them.

Now, that, you know, of course, includes the four territories in the war zone, the old war her son, Zaporosia, Danyetsk, and Lugans. But as we know, this also now includes Kursk, which actually Russia has been making a lot of headway in as well. When Ukraine first came across, it was reported that they had taken control of over 1,500 square kilometers. And that just surprise, I mean, nobody knew what to expect when that happened. but it's reported now that Russia is taken back well over half of that territory.

So, yeah. I've heard the same that it's in fact, the DS, you know, the Ukrainian mapping project, they're saying that it's down to about a third of its original size. So I mean, it's been, it's been, it's been shrunk, shrunk very considerably. Now, I believe you've been there. I think you've been to Kusk as well, you've seen the situation. there. I mean, what is the fighting like? I've heard some reports that say that the fighting in Cusk is even more intense than it is in Dombas. I mean, is that true? Or are you, you know, is it impossible for someone to say? Yeah, I've been there on the front line. Actually,

I went with Russian Storm Group, as they call it, assault team to document them taking Ukrainian or taking territory back from Ukraine, attacking Ukrainians. And I was there not so recently, it's been a while now, but weeks after the original incursion and documented the fighting, yeah, very intense fighting and just, I can't stress enough how much drone warfare has taken in so much of a part of this war. It's such a psychological,

has such a psychological impact on the soldiers, the civilians, the firefighters, the ambulances, and the journalists. I mean, just so, it's just so intense when you're going to the front line and, you know, at any moment, I mean, that can be it. I mean, that's, when I go to the front line positions,

I mean, that's the scariest part, really, is not being at the front line when shells can come down and all that stuff. It's in the car trying to get there. I mean, because you're just so helpless, basically. But, yeah, the fighting was very intense and curse. Every hour, there were sirens in the city of Curse going off, warning of drones and things like this.

but yeah I mean it's it's it was a different kind of war it is a difference of course I'm sure it's changed

a lot since I have been there because it was a new region that literally just got jumped into the war so I hope to be going back very very soon as soon as probably early next

week to spend another time there on the front and bring out another series of reports on how it's changed and what's happening. But yeah, it seems like more has changed as far as the war overall in the last, in as far as the technical side of it in the last months than it has in the last years. Things are just changing so much. I mean, there's so many reports of the fiber optic drones now where Electronic warfare can't even affect them. Hopefully soon I'll be doing some reports directly on that. And, you know, fire breathing dragon drones.

Thermite-carrying drones. Just so much is going on now as far as drone warfare and how it affects the war. I mean, it's definitely, as far as weapon to weapon, and I think it's up there at the top. Can one hear them? I read a report somewhere in, if I was a British newspaper,

about the Russian drones, that they're like wasps, that you can hear them like wasps, and that this can, but this has written quite a long time ago, but that in itself, the sound of the drones buzzing is deeply demoralizing to,

in this case, the Ukrainian soldiers. Well, I can tell you, in my experiences with hearing these drones. There's basically three main types of drones that you have to worry about. You know, there's modifications to each one, but the main three is the kamikaze, the reconnaissance and the DJI drones

that can also be used for reconnaissance, but they're the with the helicopter with the four quadricopter basically that can be used for reconnaissance but also to drop ammunition and target artillery or assist in the targeting. So basically the ones that you're most afraid of when you hear them are the kamikaze or FPV drones. And those can resemble wasps, I guess you could say. And you just, you're under the trees or you're somewhere and you just hear this, and you, every time it turns, you know, it changes the sound just a little bit. So you know it's right, I've been in a situation many times, it's right above you.

And it's just hunting you. Because, I mean, there's someone seeing a TV screen or a control screen on the other side that is looking to try to figure out what's a tree and what's you so it can kill you, regardless if you're a journalist or soldier or whatever you are. I mean, what, just last week, we had a chief editor in a local gazette in Kersk, who was killed by a Ukrainian kamikaze drone when it hit her vehicle, her civilian vehicle. I mean, it just happens every day. And also, you hear the helicopter GGI drones that might drop about.

bomb or something on you. Those are a little bit duller sounds. And as far as the long range reconnaissance can also target artillery, those are higher and a lot of those are more like airplane style with wings. They actually, the nickname for them is wings. As far as a normal drone, the soldiers just called them birds. but when they're a big reconnaissance ones, they say, oh, there's wings above us. So, yeah, it's really, firsthand experience, I could tell you,

these drones, especially the Comic-Connes, are just so psychologically affects your job, whatever job that's doing, whether you're trying to shoot, trying to film, trying to save someone's life, or whatever. It's such a horrible feeling. And, you know, I'm not saying this, you know, just off a whim, but we know there's been several journalists that have been killed by these

Ukrainian kamikaze drones. So, I mean, this is, you know, who's going to be the next one? It's not a matter of when the next journalist is going to be killed by a Ukrainian Ukrainian Kamakazi drone. It's not a matter of if, but when and who, unfortunately. Can I ask, but you said earlier in the program that the Russians have now reached the board or rather they will soon reach the border of Donets region and they'll be close to NEPRO or NEPROPETROV's region. Has there been any discussion about whether they intend to cross it? There's a lot of discussion about this on alternative or independent media and social media.

And there's also been a little bit of discussion about this in the mainstream media here in the West that the Russians might be. be intending to move on towards the Nipra river itself, towards NEPRO itself. Have you heard anything about that? Has anybody talked about this? I mean, what the soldiers think?

Right now there's reports coming from some Ukrainian sources purportedly, reportedly, that Russia is preparing this huge offensive on the city of Nipro. for Petrosk. Now, whether that, I just wrote an article on Substach about this yesterday, whether that is, how accurate that is, of course, they want to take that territory because they consider part of Russia. But if they're going to do it right now, is this something that Ukraine is really warning

of, or maybe they're trying to take the eyes off of something else and put it on that? Maybe this is a form of propaganda, a little bit of bait and switch. who knows? Of course, Russia is definitely interested in taking back one of the two biggest cities that Russian law considers part of Russia, Nipropatrosk, that is controlled by Ukrainian forces. The two biggest cities are her son and Zaporosia. So definitely Russia is going to want to take them back.

When that's going to happen, how they're going to go about it? Is it going to go about peacefully through negotiations, which I think everybody would rather. But the fact is, Russia law considers this part of Russia. So the war is not stopping until Russia controls all of the territory that Russia considers part of Russia. I'm not sure who could give or, you know, are rearranged the border of Russia legally. So, yeah. I don't think constitutionally, I just answer to your question,

I don't think it can be done if you look at the Russian constitution. Can I just ask, what about this? I mean, there's lots of talk about freezing the conflict, ending the conflict here rather than there, coming to all sorts of agreements, letting Ukraine join NATO, that sort of thing. Putin is ruling all that out.

What is, do people talk about things like that in Don Baster? The soldiers, talk about this sort of thing. And I mean, what do you think their reaction would be if a deal like that were ever done, which of course, Putin is ruling out? Yeah, I mean, I've heard talks here and there of, you know, people hearing this. And, you know, on paper, it looks like, wow, this way people can stop dying. But it ain't going to happen.

I mean, it's, and no one really thinks that it's possible. One thing I heard was, okay, when Trump comes in, there might be some sort of a ceasefire, but it's not going to last. I mean, it's just not. You know, there might be a ceasefire. Okay, great. For a couple weeks, people somewhat stop dying. I mean, they're going to, you know, they're not going to completely stop dying. They're still going to be fighting, even like every ceasefire.

But it's going to give time for forces to, you know, forces to. recharge, re-equip themselves, and get started again. I mean, as far as I see someone that's been in this territory covering this situation for 10 years, and I think you might have the same idea. There's no way peace is gonna come until Russia controls these five territories. Yeah, I agree with that.

Lastly, and this is my very last question, and I come back to it, it's about the mood of the soldiers. I mean, you said some of them are weary of the war. But did you get any sense of a fall in their determination? Are they still determined to keep fighting until Russia achieves his objectives? Or are they in the mood to quit? Or are they exhilarated and confident because of the Russian advances? What is the mood of the soldiers that you've spoken to at the moment?

No, now they see a light at the end of the tunnel. and they're getting more empowered by the fact that it seems the war is getting actually closer to ending, and as they put it, victory is coming sooner than later. Right. Are they intimidated by the Western missiles, the stormshadows and the attackers? I mean, there's been a lot of huge amount of discussion about this, But I mean, is this something that has unnerved them at all? Actually, it's the more, the reaction more is, ah, okay, so now they're going to piss off Putin and then he's really going to let him have it.

You know, it's not so much they're afraid of the weapons coming this way. They have the idea of Ukraine should be afraid of what's going to be the answer. Yeah, yeah. Okay, Patrick, actually, this is my very last question. We've had this attack with this Oreshnik missile on Yuzmash in Yerpro. There's been an awful lot of discussion about what the effectiveness of that missile strike was. I've heard some reports that the entire factory has been destroyed. Others are saying that the damage was superficial.

Have you any information on this or any, any, as anybody spoken to you about this at all? and are you in any position to share anything? And I promise that is my last question. Well, as needed. Well, I would say, you know, we definitely saw most of the damage to Ukraine or the West was psychological damage to see this weapon go right through any air defenses

and, you know, just breeze in like nothing. So as far as what happened on the ground with those, you know, basically, empty warheads as far as I understand because, you know, they're made to carry nukes and they're empty. I'm not a professional on the technical side of that,

but, you know, they're designed to carry something that has a lot bigger of a boom. So, you know, I think most of the damage came in psychological warfare, just the West going,

okay, Russia's got this, Russia has no problem using it. So let's think about our next moves a little bit harder. Patrick, you've answered all my questions very thoroughly, and I can only say thank you. Alex, have you anything to ask to, maybe just to say? Where can people find you, Patrick? Where can people find you? Yeah, like we said, my work has been going on covering this war and other wars for last 10, particularly this one, last 10 years.

but I put most of my full reports with full English translations on YouTube. You can find me on Twitter as well. But right now I'm putting really my in-depth reports, both text and video and extra video and even early looks at a lot of my work on substacks. So if people want to really get the knit and gritty of what I do, go to Substack. I'm actually newer to the platform, but that's where most of my stuff is going to be going out. So we need to get on that, subscribe to my stub stack, and got a lot more to come there than you'll just get just watching YouTube.

All right. I will have a link to Patrick's information in the description box down below, as well as a pinned comment. Thank you, Patrick, for joining us. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. there's been an outstanding program enormously informative. Thank you. Thank you for giving us your time as well.

Thank you.