The Duran Podcast - Frontline update and Ukraine counterattacks w/ Stanislav Krapivnik

Episode Date: February 16, 2026

Frontline update and Ukraine counterattacks w/ Stanislav Krapivnik

All right, Alexander, we are here once again with Stanislav. Stanislav, how are you doing? And where can people follow your work? Okay, so the list gets longer. So we've got telegram Stasadabradar as the Russian. Telegram Stasos there is the English. At Mr. Slavic man, Slavic with a K. That's for X.

Comment on X. That's YouTube. X is Stainis. Crypevenic. I couldn't fit the whole name in. So it just cuts off at ES and then Kripimnik. Stas Kripinik is a backup site, so that it doesn't get updated very much.

There are some things I've posted that X really didn't like, so they kind of shut it down for a while, so I had to go to a different iteration. That's just become a backup site since then. And I'm on a substack, Zmeh Garnich. You'd have to look it up in the description, the exact spelling.

uh me geranish by the way in russian myth is a three-headed uh dragon uh so that's uh in the name of the site is uh the rising imperial ego so that's that's a new site um and it's also working as a backup site for my uh i'll start to put all my videos that i put uh on youtube just in case youtube decides a deep six me because you ever know with youtube unfortunately uh they've got crazier things uh to people people have lots more forwards. So that's right. Yeah. Okay.

Those links, those links in the description box down below, Alexander Stanislav. So we have much to talk about today. And we need to discuss the fact that we have two completely different descriptions of the state of the wall. So the descriptions that I'm reading every day in the American and British media is Russia essentially being stuck. It's only making glacial advances at phenomenal cost that the numbers of Russians who have been killed in each assault are huge, and they capture in respect of each one of these assaults, millimeters of territory. I'm barely exaggerating here. And there was an extraordinary article in the New York Times, which I think came out on the 10th of February, just a few days ago, in other words, which said that, that Pakrovsk, Mernograd and Guglia Polia might fall to the Russians, might fall in a few weeks or perhaps months' time.

It would be an achievement for the Russians if they did capture these. If they do capture these places, they would have a strong logistical base, possibly for further offensives. it would be their first capture of an urban area for over a year. I mean, this is what the New York Times is saying. So that's their take on the state of the war. And I saw a map, which I think comes from the ISW, which was in the Financial Times just a few days ago, which also shows Gulliapolier clearly under Ukrainian control.

So this is one view of the war. The other one is the one that's stunning. is going to provide us with a description of what is actually happening. A situation completely different. Mirnugrad Pachrovsk, Gulliapolier, already under Russian control and under Russian control for several weeks. A situation in the sky, the Russians conducting strikes across the Ukrainian energy system, which is, which are devastating. And of Russian. continued Russian advances. So this is what we're going to discuss today. And we're going to begin, first of all, by the Amstanislav telling us very briefly, whether it is indeed the

case that Pachrovsk, Mernograd and Guglopolia are about to be captured by the Russians. This reminds me very much of a German intelligence report from the Wehrmacht to Hitler on the eve of the Russian counteroffensive of Stalingrad that took that entire army group into a cauldron. And it basically read that the

subhuman slavs are incapable of mounting any kind of offenses. We have nothing to worry about. They're disorganized and we've crushed the last of the resistance inside of Stalingram, which they had. But by the time they finished doing that,

there were two giant wings, waged, just waiting to go right through the Romanian lines and encircle the entire Ballas's entire field army. But that's what the German intelligence department was selling to the German high command. So I can only imagine, you know, if the New York Times is saying this, and this is a mouthpiece of the CIA, what Trump's, I was going to say Bites, what Trump's briefings are like? Because he's probably hearing the exact same things that you just mentioned that the New York Times is saying, or something a small derivative of that. not much attention span yes reality of course is as far from the truth

Pachrovsk's a city fell it totally fell in mid-december Miernograd was encircled by the beginning of the new year and by the middle of January all resistance was crushed quite literally crushed if they weren't smart enough to surrender then they went to meet st. Bander in hell that was the end of that and it's a bit a steady a slow drive after Pakrov's further northwest, but that's because most of the force in Pachrosk have been repurposed to take in Constantinvka. And there was heavy fighting in southern half of Constantinvka.

The Konstantikka is a city that's split by a river. So if you take one side, you cut off the other. Shall we discuss? We're going to discuss Constantinic, we're going to remember. What about Guglia Paulier? Is that indeed still under Ukrainian control? the town of Zeichnard,

which is about 10 kilometers west of Guilipoya, has now been liberated. I just to understand, the Ukrainians are throwing everything they could into a counteroffensive into Budia of Porea. The problem for the Ukrainians coming in from the west and the southwest was the same thing for us for the Russians coming in from the south.

It's open, flat land. And worse yet, it's winter. which means there's no foliage to hide behind as your approach. You're out in the open. You're driving down built up roads. Otherwise, you know, there's mud, snow, and everything else that makes your life miserable. And there's no foliage to hide behind. It's out in the open.

And when your enemy has air dominance, total air dominance. Okay, so you may still have some, yeah. So when your enemy has total air dominance, you may still have some dronage, of course, but you don't have the big air dominance. have, you can't hide from, and your enemy sees everything you're doing, you're going into a suicide mission. And that's exactly what those counterfeensives were. It took a while to peter out, but they didn't gain anything, and then they were pushed back. So now the steady drive westward is on. It's not as, honestly, it's not that fast. The Russian military high command

runs it a lot faster. The difference is the political side is saying, no, you're not going to sacrifice many soldiers. We're going to go slow, slow, and stay the way we've been before. If it was the generals, there'd be divisions bursting through, or a heavy tank divisions. But things are the way the political leadership decides. At the end of the day, that is, makes them so. There's that. Ariechawa, as before, is invested from the south. So far, they've been able to hold off the Russian forces from actually entering Arjojoa. Not Arirahua. Aririochua city limits. They've taken the southern settlements. And they're trying to hold off Russian advances in the West. Now, there are counter-offensives that the Ukrainians are

launching north of Dobropolia, Zaporosia, not the same Dobropoly as in the names repeat. I know it gets confusing. Yeah. But east of Dobropoly, Zaporja, the Ukrainians launched a desperate counter-offensive. It has had some success, but the costs are pretty high. A last count was over 60 vehicles. The destroyed and hundreds of Ukrainian troops destroyed. They're trying to cut off into the Russian closest lines of communication that's helping to feed the rest of the front. Whether or not they get that far is a big question. They started like everybody's starting these days with reconnaissance and sabotage units.

Those get in. They start making havoc. Of course, those units are usually anywhere between three to ten men. So you're not talking about any kind of staying power. They don't have stained power. They don't have logistics. But they've started a mass assault in that area. And again, they're taking heavy casualties.

They do have a tendency. They'll move when they do their counter-offensives. They'll do faster counter-offense than the Russian offenses. And they'll grab more land faster. But that's because they're losing a lot more people because they're willing to sacrifice huge amounts of people for small gains. And then they can't hold them. Because they've sacrificed huge amounts of people for small gains.

And they don't have the staying power afterwards. So this is another localized emergency, localized, I mean on a tactical level, localized emergency. We'll see how long they can hold out before everything gets rolled back up in the opposite direction. But this is something, this is a pattern that they've repeated countless times.

They did the same thing to Parkrosk. And it took a few photos at the edge of Parkrosk customer. We've liberated all of Parkrolls. Maybe that's at the New York Times. It's still grabbing onto it. Literally, they just got about 20, 30 minutes. in and they were surrounded and destroyed. And they do this constantly.

The other thing they like to do is they throw out photographs that they've taken earlier before they retreat and then throw them out a month later and say, yeah, see, we're still here. Well, no, you're not. Sometimes it gets ridiculous when they throw photographs with foliage in its middle of winter. There's no foliage anymore. It's like,

oh, no, this was taken yesterday. Oh, yeah, at least be a little more creative. So that's what we're trying to do. It's quite an effective tactic, though. because, of course, the media in the West, I mean, they don't really think about issues of foliage and winter and all that. Can I just ask you a question, a specific question, a tactical one, which is right at the beginning of the war, I think back in 2022, there was an article, which I remember, the American military media, by a U.S. Marine officer who wrote under the name Mariners. and he said that what the Russians often like to do in the event of an advance, of a countertack, is that they actually intentionally retreat and draw the adversary into what is in effect a kill zone,

an area that they've actually prepared in advance, they've know exactly where to launch missiles and shells in and all of that. and that this is actually a well-established Russian tactic, which even in 2022 the Russians were using. Anyway, are we seeing, is this something of what we're seeing in these counterattacks? Yes, there's two things here. There is 80, the Russian use of prepared positions for exterminating your enemy, and those are kills acts that you fall back onto, and you make obstacles or heavy. defensive points to drive your enemy into the area you want. So he doesn't start wandering off left or

right. There's might fields. There's heavy trench positions. So he starts to flow where the easiest break in. It's like an explosive force. You know, it breaks wherever that easiest barrier there's that's where the explosive force goes. But Russia creates those breaks. And it creates that flow for the enemy to come in. And you coupled out with the Ukrainian military tradition of getting themselves in circle, breaking in and getting themselves a circle, which they had been doing very successful since 2013, 2014. In fact, the rebels were very successful because the Ukrainians could break in, but they can't break through. They get in there, and then they get surrounded. Oh, the good side is you don't have to worry where your enemy is. He's all around you.

You can attack in any direction or get defeated from any direction because the enemy is all around you. That thing is, now you're cut off, and the enemy is all around you. The Ukrainians have done this countless times. The De Bolshev pocket was just the biggest one. It wasn't even so much the biggest one. It was the best televised one. When they were just doing desperate charges, they didn't want to surrender. They were told you surrender.

We'll lay down your weapons. They'll let you leave. Instead, they tried to break out. And the highway out of the Bolshe was just littered with corpses and burned out vehicles. I mean, they lost a massive amount of troops doing something. they're relatively stupid. I remember the debaelssova. I remember DeBelssova very well.

Okay, can we move on now to discuss Konstantinovka? Because there is very little about the fighting in Konstantinovka coming out. Now, some people assume that that means that actually nothing very much is happening there and that there is no, you know, the fighting is frozen. my own experience of the war is that often when there is silence that is a sign that a lot is happening. What is your understanding of the situation

in Konstantinovka? Konstantievko is Pokrovska 2.0 but with a lot more rioting on it. And what I mean by that is Pakrovskar Krasnarmids. The Ukrainians threw everything they could into holding Pakrovsk. They failed.

And Mirnagrad, which also wound up leaving a lot of their soldiers in circles, somewhere between 5,500 to 7,000, encircled and wiped out. They're doing the same thing at Kastikovka. They've made this another one of those hills we shall die upon. So they're throwing everything they can in that area into that meat grinder. And Russia is countering with forces with the aim of letting them die on the hill the new real they've chosen on. So there's a lot of fighting, Konstantievka. Katsikievka is an interesting place, because it's one of those towns that's divided by a river with very few crosses, only a few bridges.

So once you isolate one side from the other side, you can then start to degrade any kind of defenses there are left. And that looks like what Russia is doing. But it's a question of which direction. Russia is invested right now in the southeast, which is the north side of the river, but they're also pushing them from the south. They're constant fighting back and forth moving in. Russia had some charges in early on in Constantiafka.

Again, by diversionary groups you're talking about between fire teams up to maybe a platoon-sized element. They had about a platoon-sized element in there. It did get pushed out afterwards. It held the rail line for a while, which kind of split the city in half. But then they fell back after taking cashers because they couldn't have held it for long. It had a shock effect. That had a very good shock effect on the enemy. But it's not one of those moves unless there's a battalion right not behind your brigade

that you're going to be able to survive for a long just because you're isolated. But they've done several of these threats as they're starting to do the surrounding of the territories leading up to Constantine from the south. So they're pushing up that barrier right up to the edge of the city and taking it out whatever defensive positions are left. So what is the strategy for Konstantinovka? Is it to trap the Ukrainians on either side of this river? Or is the river a barrier for the Russians? Or is it more a trap for the Ukrainians? I would say it's more a trap for Ukrainians.

For one reason, the main reason is because once the bridges are severed, and as far as I know, I think they have been severed, one side of a city can't help the other side of sea, especially at this point, you're not going to swim across that river. It's ice cold. There's ice floating in it. So you're just cut off. You can cross further up river, but then you have to leave the city.

So you isolate two pockets of resistance, and then you can start degrading those by breaking them up in it further. But I think this is going to, it looks like it's going to be a bit of a mid-grinder, like it or not, just because of the situation. they're surrounding the city again into a deep pocket. That's a standard. But it's also buying time because as long as it's concentrating Ukrainian forces in that direction, the offensive in Krasn-Lemann is continuing.

Once comes to Krasn-Lewan is taken, now you've got a sort of Democles hanging over the head of the Ukrainian forces from the north. And if that offensive develops well and goes into the Slavins, then you're basically cutting off a huge amount of solace, It becomes a super... Let's talk about that because this is an area where the Russians seem to be moving

much faster around Slaviansk, around Leman, Karsinimann. Can you also tell us a bit about what's going on in Kupiansk? Because I think we're not starting to get more clarity about the situation there, but of course it attracted

a huge amount of attention. But for the record, the British media is still talking about the Ukrainian victory in Kuopians. But can you tell you tell us a little bit about what is actually going on in this part of the world? Well, you know, if it was a victory, it would be a temporary victory. I feel like the vix free. A furek victory because the Ukrainians, even if they had taken the entire city, they didn't take into the city.

They took a good chunk of it back. Well, again, the Russian forces pulled back. And now they're being pushed back out, plus their supply lines on north are being cut. It's one of those situations Even if you take it, you can't hold it Because you don't have to spend And the force that's against you is still overwhelming They start to take it back It's just they're starting to kill a lot more of your soldiers again

In positions that have been destroyed So you're not back into a very built up area That you can easily hold Because most of it's been leveled So you're now running through the rubble That's gradually becoming more and more particleized That area is again I was calling the shorter scat of the battlefield.

But we're getting more and more a glance under that box and we're seeing that while the cat's not dead, it's definitely not feeling good. And the Russian forces are advancing back into coupons. And the Ukrainians can't stop. They're trying, but they can't stop. They don't have the manpower. But there was a report that came out recently from the Ukrainian side.

The 90% of reinforcements are people snatched off the streets for the press games. nobody wants to go fight. You had Kellogg, which I can't understand whether he's absolutely senile now, because he's not a dumb human being. And he's, we overwatched the collapse of the U.S. military and the rebuild of the U.S. military from the 70s, post-Vietnam into the 80s and 90s. He's not a stupid man. But the things he says, he's either absolutely bought.

And we know his daughter makes money off this war in her NGO. Or he is, you know, it's time to retire. man, go son on the couch. Because he's sitting there and he's pleading with Ukrainians that fled Ukraine to come back. You need to fight and die for your country. Well, the fact that they paid money to get the hell out, said it wouldn't be a press gang, but they didn't want to run down or volunteer. It should tell you everything you need to know about the fact that this is pointless. They're not going to come back because they never want to die for Ukraine and Zelensky. The other little piece of news that came out is in the first,

a month of this year, Ukraine logged well over 150,000 desertions. And again, the majority of desertions are the men there being pressed gangs, because they never want to fight the first place. So maybe they can't run away once they've been beaten up and tossed into some pseudo-preparatory training, which usually doesn't last very long. A lot of times isn't there at all. But once they get their fighting positions, morale is rock bottom.

They don't want to be there. They're not trained. They're not well-fed. and they see an opportunity to run. They run. And a lot of times they run with their weapons, by the way. So then you get another problem. The question I always get asked when people, you know, I reproduce this.

So this is well-established. Ukraine has these massive desertion problems. It has very high losses. It has problems keeping its infantry, you know, up to any kind of, level. People always come back to me and then in that case, they say, well, why then has Ukraine not collapsed? Why is it able to keep fighting? What is what is enabling Ukraine to go on resisting in the way that it is? The number one, the thing that's not, that's enabling and not to collapse, it is the fact that Russia hasn't launched any major breakthrough offenses.

There are over 300, 350,000 troops that are in the area that are not being. being used. You've concentrated even 100,000 of that into a fist, and it'll break through in any direction. The fact that they haven't, and the fact that it's still small unit tactics, there's being used. Again, there's a lot of military command in Russia that's that wants to launch the big offenses. The political leadership, or at least the political leadership that counts, has said no, and they've continued to stick into the same policy. I think part of this has come from what I consider a misplaced hope in

some kind of negotiation with Trump and that something may be finally hammered out. I think this is absolutely, you know, in my view, this is maybe just my view, Trump's a worse enemy than Biden. I'll tell you flat, why. Biden refused to talk, period.

So, okay, your enemy refuses to talk to you, you've got to do what you've got to do. It's black and white. Trump comes around and he wants to talk. He loves to talk. He wants to talk. He wants to talk. and he's dangling little carax out. The spirit of Alaska, Anchorage, Alaska, and all this outside.

But he backs off instantly, whether it's because that's his type of personality, that's a dubious nature, or because he's hitting senility and whoever talks to him last. He's been said, that's his opinion. I guess who's going to always talk to him last, it's definitely going to be Putin a lot of love. It's hard to say. It's hard to say. But the fact is, I think, well, Lavrov has come out and flat out already said it, that, you know, there is no spirit of it. I encourage this is all pointless.

And he's back by quite a few generals and quite a few politicians. Parliament wants a hard hit. Parliament, the only thing that's keeping a lot of part of Ukraine from burning right now, really burning, is Rwledi or Ligievich. because a large chunk of the Russian government wants the hands of the military untied, the feud of the military untied, and a full assault, a full assault on the infrastructure and the men. That's another thing to consider. Even with Russian drone operators, they will more often go after equipment than men. Because they're trying to keep, even though Ukraine has losing about 12 to 1,500 killed every single day,

they're still trying to do more on the equipment than the men. That, more likely, it already is changing. Again, they were trying to do this softer approach for the sake of talks. And I think that's just running its course. It's becoming obvious, this is absolutely ridiculous. This is not going anywhere. This is a fast food version of diplomacy. Or the other description I've used, this is the masturbation of this.

It's not sex, it's masturbation. This is not diplomacy. This is just a bunch of guys talking around a corner. And the guys that are talking are a bunch of businessmen from the Ukrainian, I mean, from the American side. And the Ukrainian side are a bunch of American citizens. The entire Ukrainian team are American citizens. They all do such. So this is, it's got to the absurd.

So I think if they launch a big attack, this will collapse. But there's one other thought on this, one other quick thought. to game those possessions that are Russian territories deeper in, I'm talking Karykov, I'm talking Nikolaev, I'm talking to Dysa, those areas. Does Russia actually have to send the army? Well, eventually, but what I'm getting at is if the government of Ukraine collapses, and just as an example of how the government of Ukraine is cracking, the Ukrainian rather the parliament, all, everybody got, um, everybody got stomach virus because they were afraid there was a direction coming. But, and they said, you know, the guys that came back from vacation

in the islands. So let's begin with that. So there's a war going on. The average Joe is being press game, beaten, thrown in the front, but your politicians are all going off on vacation to tropical islands. So that already tells you there's a lot of problems of society. So if Russia keeps the pressure up, the Ukrainian army cracks without having even a major offensive. And the Ukrainian society cracks and everything starts falling apart rapidly, then you just walk into those territories because there's not going to be a government that's going to be a beholden, which I think, which, by the way, the Poles and the Hungarians and the Romanians are waiting for the same thing to go grab back their historical lands.

Yeah, yeah. Okay, can we just focus a moment on the, on the military things? If Lehman, Kupiansk, all of these places, collapse, will we have an attack on Slaviansk? And if the battle of Konstantinovka ends, all of these will have to end at some point. I mean, the Russians are going to capture these places. What does that mean? What does that mean for the fight in Dombas? Well, Kupens is actually Kharkov, great. It's eastern Kharkov, always.

And north of Kruppens, the Russian military, is now going northeast along the border, widening that area, plus there are several incursions. So they're building that buffer zone of taking northeastern Haikov for Oblis, which then brings him up to very close to Haarqa for multiple directions. That's Kruppens. When it comes to Krasta Laman, once Krasta Leman's taken, and then the pressure goes on to Flavinsk, again, when the gates close on Slavins, you're closing in that, you're basically encircling Constantievka from the south, which is basically already encircle. It's in a bag. The bag hasn't just been closed because Kramatursk is nearby.

Well, you get Slavis, Kramatorski, and Konstitinovka in that area. And that's your last big fortress areas in the Donbos. That's the last big built-up areas by the Ukrainian. where they spent eight to ten years pouring rebark concrete, setting our fighting positions, depots, and so on. Everything else has been taken. Everything else has been taken. This is where they're launching the crazy counterattacks all over its approach because they don't

have the same effect of a line that they can withstand. And the rest of the DNR areas have already been taken. So there's past them is basically field. The majority of Russia forces will be just being. incarcerated north now instead of moving further toward De Nyepper. As far as Hearkov, as said, from Lagoon, the Russian armies already deeply inside of Hekhov, and moving every day. So this is an area that's in collapse. Again, the consensurate their forces on their last fortresses, their last fortress cities. What happens when they fall?

Well, there's going to be a lot of questions inside of Ukrainian society, whether, you know, they're talking about elections on elections. Duma is, or the Duma is sort of a rod of afraid to come in. The only thing is holding this state together, really the only thing of left is corruption and everybody's still trying to steal money and the military, what's left of it,

is still holding those areas. One of those two is going to go and the majority of politicians are going to go. The money's still flowing, so they're going to still stick around to get money. And as long as the money's flowing, they have no problems, and more Ukraine at the time. Question only becomes how long the Ukrainian front in any of these areas can hold it.

And it's not holding. It's just, it's more of a matter of, in place like Khadikov, that the Russian military is not advancing as strong as it could. Again, that's a political decision. If Dombas Falls, if these two cities in Dombas Falls, there is a view now, which is universally expressed, articulated right across the media in. Britain, certainly, and it's also endorsed by the Institute of the Study of War, that if Donbass falls, if these cities, Sarveans Kravon Tosk, all of these places fall, then there are no more effective defense lines and that there is no more effective defense for the rest of Ukraine,

and that this is the reason why, as they argue, it would be a mistake for Zelensky and the Ukrainians to give them up in negotiations. Is this true? Well, the next big defensive line, the really big defensive lines, the NEPA. And the Yepa has been crossed more than once before in history.

So it's one of those dubious defensive lines. And again, it becomes a question of, does Ukraine have how many soldiers to defend the entire line? That's going to be getting shelved on a constant basis. So yeah, and there are no defensive positions, really strong defensive positions built up. Well, the fortified sector,

so that would be a better word. for it. Along the western bank of Benyap, it just hasn't been prepared. This is the last big fortifications. And then it becomes a faster, relatively fast run toward Neapadro, eastern nepotroves in Zaporos, and then there's Paltaba Oblast. And Harkov itself is also basically in the open. Again, the Russian military is moving slow. I've got friends on a lot of these areas, and they're just, they're not putting the pressure that they could. There's huge reserves. They're not being put into the field.

And I'm not talking about the people that are sitting in the Kov, or sitting up in Novgorad, just in case NATO decides to do something stupid out of the pre-Baltics. But people that are, the units that are relatively close to the front. There's rotations that go up, something you never see in Ukraine. There's rotation that goes on where a battalion comes in, it serves out a certain amount of months, a half a year, and then the next battalion takes its place and so on and so on. But they could throw everything in.

And the generals, as I've talked to, that's what everybody wants. That, I mean, that's how I was taught. Trulies be damned. I mean, wait till it rains and my going to charge in. Wait till heavy fog. I mean, you've got a computerized, satellite-driven navigation. You're still going to know more or less where you're at. Either way, a strong enough concentrated hit, those Ukrainian lines will buckle and it'll break.

Can I just ask one very last question? We have this black out of the Ukrainian cities. We're now having massive attacks on a scale we've never seen before in the war on the Ukrainian transportation system. I mean, the trains are now being attacked, which didn't used to happen. The railway lines are being attacked. The power stations are being closed down. We've now had attacks on the electricity substations in Western, Ukraine. First of all, I assume this is having an effect on the front lines. But secondly,

is this not something that would be consistent with preparations for exactly the kind of big offensive that you are talking about? That it's exactly what you would do if you were, in fact, starting to think that way. Yes. First of all, I'd like to give some advice to the Russian high command. If you notice statistically, you send in 600 drones, only 30 get through. You send in 100 drones, only 30 get through. Just send

30 drones. They'll all get through. According to the Ukrainian statistics anyways. No matter how many drones, Russia said, only 30 got through. But everything is burning. Somehow those, oh, they've also claimed they're now shooting down. Again, they started claiming they're now shooting down Russian

Kinjol supersonic missiles, which nobody else can do, but I figured out how they do it. They throw up the object in the way of the missile and it stops the missile. That's how it shoots the missile down. They threw up the barracks, they throw up the generators, and it

stops the missile. It's a brilliant, it's absolutely a brilliant plan. There's two effects here, what's happened. Three really effects. Now, and two will bleed into each other. One, of course, if you're going to do a deep offense of, yes, you

want to, and even if you're not going to do deep offensive, you still want to hit the logistics. Even if you're going to do a slow offensive, you don't want the enemy reinforcing. Now, Russia has done this on and off for the last three years, but they never did it with staying power. I think it was more of a, don't make us do this. Look, what we can do. We've smacked

your wants in the face. Calm down, let's go and negotiate. Okay, that didn't work. We'll smack you two more times in the face. Calm down. Let's negotiate. And finally, it's got to a point where, okay, I'm just going to have to beat your face in because you're not getting the point, and this is pointless. And I think This is the situation that we've gotten to where, okay, the gloves are off. It's obvious we've got to finish this somehow. And then we're just going to pummel everything.

And yes, majority of their train engines are run on electricity. He destroyed the electric networks. They've even had, I've seen videos from Ukraine, somebody who said a passenger was taking a video of a train from the 1940s, pulling cars. Couldn't pull that many cars, obviously. But we were using 1940s trains. because those run on coal and the electricity's gone. The diesel's gone.

What do we got to? We still have coal. Okay, over wood, you can throw something like that. Something that burns. Throw the books in that they don't longer read. Why not? It's that kind of power. So you're down to that level.

Blowing up railroad tracks is a very localized tactical move something partisans would do or you would do immediately before a defensive because they get replaced relatively quickly. blowing up power stations that feed those, blowing up key intersections or plusters and depots for railroad, that's a different thing. Blowing up bridges, that's a very major thing, especially for rail. You can do a pontoon bridge to get a trucks across, and you can't do a pontoon bridge to get a train across.

And the NAPR is a huge barrier if those bridges are blown. That's one. Two is a psychological effect on the people, on the population. Suddenly, the war isn't somewhere over there. The war is right here. So much for going to the bar and having a couple beers because lots of videos that were coming out of Kiev was partying. Never mind who's dying. That's before they started really press gang in Kiev, the male population in Kiev.

Isn't enough, the population of Kiev grew very quickly during 2022 to 2024 because a lot of men moved to Kiev because Kiev wasn't being press gang. It was like this big reserve of man. Now it is. So much for that. But the fact is, this is how it was done. So this now you're doing the psychological. You're doing one, you're doing a psychological attack for the deeper here. Two, you're making life near impossible for the people living in the cities that are on the front, or close to their front.

Because you don't want the civilian population there when the combat starts. Zelenskyy slipped the dogs about two years ago when I guess he must have been on a good or a bad batch of Colombian marching powder. that. We said, you know, we can't evacuate all civilians because as soon as we evacue old civilians, the Russia's starting to advance it very quickly. Ah, so you're using your own civilians as human shields, reading between the lines. You know, this is what he meant. So again, I guess it's probably not his total mental state to have said that, but he said that. The media kind of blipped, and then the Western media, of course, buried that, because we can't have that floating around. But that's the reality of it. You want the people to voluntarily leave.

Kharkov is freezing. Kajikov is very different living. There's friends of my family that live there and some distant relatives. A lot of left. And that's exactly what you want out of the population. You want them to leave. So they are not in the way. They can come back later when the war's over, when the fronts moved further. Deep inside, you get the population will crash. psychological crash of the population, because now they're feeling, oh, this is real, and now I'm miserable, involved in Galizza, in those areas, are going to death. And this is what you're feeding into that collapse, that governmental collapse.

Because some people in Yipa Petrov's place like that are doing blocks, blocking roads, protests that, hey, we have no electricity, we have not this, we don't. And there's one other factor that's going to become a very, very serious issue in the next month because a month from now will be mid-March and Ukraine is warmer than the northern Russia where Moscow is. Ukraine thaw is faster. And guess what happens when none of your sanitation works work and you've got a city of about two million people. They all got to go somewhere. They're burying it in pits. And when all that snow melts and it all floats up and it's everywhere, that's when you get caller. Collar comes calling and caller is going to come calling. And callers going to come

in every single Ukrainian town, where people continue to live. And you know, you go to the villages, you may have outhouse or something like that to get rid of your human waste. In a huge city, you know, where are you doing? They're bearing it underneath right beside their buildings. And sooner or later, that all comes back to play, and all that goes under water reserves. All that goes, well, it's got to go somewhere. You're looking at like a medieval city where the plague breaking out is what you're going to be

looking. So that's all going to have a major effect. people started to talk about it. They were ignoring it at first. That's not something you can ignore for long, and it's going to be made known whether you like it or not within the next month, month and a half, when the thaw comes, and all of that has to go somewhere. It's going to be, I mean, it's just essential on in major cities is going to be in a taller. But that's a reality of it. And the whole point is break the psychology of the population. You know, Zelensky is using you. Zelensky is feeding off of you. You will not just Zelensky, but there's a dire crew,

and collapse the government. Once the government collapses, or the military collapses, it's an easy walk. It's an easy walk. The same thing happened in the Eastern Front after the provincial government took over after the Tsar was forced to abdicate. And then what happened?

The front collapsed, basically, because the morale collapsed, the front collapsed. And the Germans made advances they couldn't physically have ever made otherwise, just because there was no front line. and the units that were still left, they didn't want to fight. They were like, yeah, this is we've got it. We've got it. We're at the surrender.

Just let us go home. And they did that. We need be looking at the same thing. You hold on, you hold on, you hold on, until the last finger falls, and then you fall off a very deep cliff. And that's where I think Ukraine is on. It's got a hand left,

and it's one or two fingers are starting to slip, and, you know, the pit below it is pretty damn deep. Stanislav, that's brilliant. Thank you very much again. for clarifying and explaining things so thoroughly and so well. Stanislav, thank you so much. It's very true for it. I can rewrite the maps for them.

I got a little more realistic. Stadislav, where can people find your work? Okay, so Substak is Zmei Grinich. You have to look up the exact spelling of it in the description. X is Stannis Pripenik. Can fit the whole name in. Unfortunately, we Russians have long names. At Mr. Slavic, man, Slavic with a K for YouTube, and then Stas was there in English and Stas today Abratna in Russian for Telegram.

Would it still work? Those links in the description box down below. Thank you, Stanislav. Thank you. Thank you. Take care.