The Duran Podcast - Georgia passes foreign agents law. Armenia protests

Episode Date: May 27, 2024

Georgia passes foreign agents law. Armenia protests

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Georgia and also in Armenia. Protests in both countries, but two very different types of protests. One protest is authentic because there are no EU flags. The other protest doesn't seem very authentic because there's a lot of EU flags. And we got the word just a moment ago that the law for the final. Foreign agents bill has been passed. The president of Georgia vetoed it, but the government has decided to pass the law either way. The president of Georgia's veto was pretty much symbolic, but the NGO foreign agents law act is now law. So that is the latest update on Georgia. But two very different types of protests. What do you make of them? Maybe we start with Georgia first. Yeah, I think so let's start with Georgia first. The important thing about the protests in Georgia, as you rightly said, is that, firstly, they have a very artificial look about them.

I don't mean that all the people who have come up and protested, every single person there has been paid to do it or anything like that. No doubt a lot of them believe it. But this has basically been organized by the NGOs themselves, by the people who worry that they're going to lose out as a lot of them. result of this law and of course the key thing to understand is that elections are coming in georgia parliamentary elections this law makes it much more difficult from this point going forward for the NGOs to influence the outcome of those elections which is what this is all about now opinion polls suggest that the current government is going to win those elections and win those elections by a decisive margin. I expect protests to continue up to the elections. I suspect that after the elections,

we're going to see more protests still denying the legitimacy of the elections. There will be lots of attempts to claim that this is a seizure of power and illicit seizure of power. There have been all sorts of comments about how this is a Russian power grab underway in Georgia. which, by the way, there is no evidence whatsoever. I expect that they're going to be sanctions from the United States and there's going to be sanctions from the European Union. But I still think overall that the government and the party, the government party, which have held together surprisingly well

under all this pressure, are going to see this thing through and I think they're going to win the elections and I think they're going to consolidate their control of Georgia thereafter. And I think this is a decisive and important event, and though it's not been given much publicity, certainly not in the West, it seems that the other thing that maybe some people were hoping for, which is that the European Court of Human Rights would order Mikhail Sakashvili's release.

You remember he's the pro-West. leader of Georgia who came to power as a result of the Rose Revolution, the NGO revolution, as I've also heard it, described as the person who ultimately leaves this movement of which the NGOs are part. Anyway, the ECHR has said that he's in prison lawfully,

but actually he's in hospital at the moment, but he'll be set back to prison. He's imprisoned lawfully, and that's where he stays. And I think, without him, again, I think they lack the figure, the personality to lead them, but they were hoping for, and that this has been a big blow to them also. So I think the Georgian government is going to see this thing through, and I think that there's a chance with this NGO law, and provided the government does get re-elected, and a colour revolution attempt in Georgia

which is clearly what is underway, provided it fails, then I think there's a chance that this period that Georgia has been through ever since the Rose Revolution will be finally over and we'll see Georgian politics start to revert and to a more, you know, Georgian-centered, national interest-centered politics, rather than have Georgia basically been pulled by the West in the way that it has been. Okay, so before we talk about Armenia, the collective West, they're not going to stop. Trying to get this regime change in Georgia.

They're not going to give up just because the law was passed. This is not the end of it. So they're going to try to get regime change through the elections. They're going to try and enforce regime change by saying that Georgia will not get into the European Union unless the government changes its behavior, repels the NGO law. I don't know if that's possible, but I don't know. Passes another law to repel the recently passed NGO law, whatever. they're going to start putting out statements like that, and they're going to basically run the same playbook that they ran with Ukraine and the Maidan. This really is very similar to the Maidan and Yanukovych

and the pressure that came from the European Union at the time, and then the U.S. and McCain showing up on Maidan Square and at Sikorsky at Maidan. This is very much the same thing and the same playbook that the collective West is running with Georgia. What can Georgia dream do? What can they learn from Maidan? What can they learn from Yanukovych? I was kind of shocked. To be honest, I was shocked that, not that they had much choice,

but, you know, it's interesting to see how the Georgia Dream Party allows EU officials and politicians to enter. Georgia, come to Tbilisi, and to speak at at the protest calling for the overthrow of the government. Well, at the same time, Georgia's actually considering entering the European Union and you have EU officials calling for your government to be overthrown to regime changes. Very odd stuff. But what can Georgia dream do? What can they take away from the lessons of Maidan in order to prevent a Maidan?

because it is the same playbook that they're throwing at Georgia that they used in Ukraine. It's identical. It's exactly the same. I mean, even the EU officials turning up in Belisi and joining the protests is exactly what happened in Maidan. I could remember it. I mean, EU officials turning up in Maidan Square. It wasn't just Victoria Newland handing out cookies. Sikorsky. Skorski was there. Absolutely. They were all there. So, I mean, no doubt about that whatsoever. Yeah, absolutely. They were all there. It is exactly the same playbook being followed, the same kind of threats, the same sort of sanctions. What the Georgian government needs to do is to look at president of Ukraine's, former president of Ukraine's, Yanukovych's mistakes and learn from them.

What Yanukovych did is despite the fact that he had a plurality of support in Ukraine, it's often forgotten, but he was the most popular politician in Ukraine. Throughout this whole Maidan period, he had more support in Ukraine than any Maidan leader, according to opinion polls, which I have no doubt were true. he also had the support of the security services. But instead of doing that, he repeatedly fell into the trap of negotiating with and trying to appease his opponents, the Maidan movement.

So there would be agreement after agreement that would reach the riot police, all of these people would stand down that was supposed to be, you know, calming of the situation. The Maidan forces simply took advantage of that. And with every one of these agreements over time, Yanukovych's authority across the country gradually weakened until the eventual point came when it simply collapsed. Now, if the Georgian government makes the same mistake, it will find itself in the same position. So so far, I have to say, it hasn't done so. It hasn't compromised at all.

It's pressed forward with this law. It's enacted this law. It's passed it. The Georgian parliament has passed it. The Georgian prime minister who's leading it has even spoken about how the president has betrayed Georgia by trying to veto the law. So provided they stick to their position, as I understand it, They don't just have a plurality behind them in Georgia.

They have a majority behind them in Georgia. They also seem to have the loyal support of the security services. Provided they hold their nerve, provided they don't let themselves be bullied or bribed, bribery will also be happening. There'll be all kinds of offers being made. Provided they don't let any of that sway them from the course. that they've been following from the last couple of weeks, I think they will come through. And this is the point of maximum danger, because you're absolutely right.

The West isn't happy about what's happening. They're going to pull every stop, pull every wire to try to get a crisis, a color revolution in Georgia. The most dangerous moment of all is going to be, when the election, election itself happens. More likely than not, we will see a united position for the opposition that they don't recognise the election outcome. More likely in the north, the West will support it. That will be the most dangerous moment. If the party, the government backs down at that point, then they're finished. But for the moment at least, throughout these current programmes,

protests. They've shown that they're not making Yanukovych's mistake. They're holding firmly to their course. And if they continue to do that, they will win through. That is what I think. All right. So let's talk about Armenia. And there are protests in Armenia against the pro-Western, pro-EU, pro-Nado leader of Armenia, Paschena. Can you call him that? I think we can call him that. And these protests seem very legit. No EU flags at these protests, Armenian flags, but not EU flags. And they are calling for Paschignan to step down. Yes. Now, I am of the opinion that Paschignan has done a terrible disservice to Armenia. That's just my opinion. But he's he, he lived. Armenia during a catastrophic war with Azerbaijan, where Nagorno-Karabakh was lost, and now he is giving up more territory to Azerbaijan. We said in videos in the past that this was what Paschigyan in a way was aiming for,

because by getting rid of Nakorno-Karabakh, this disputed territory as the West saw it, he would free up his path to enter the EU and events. actually enter NATO. Armenians are rising up and they want Paschignan, God. What do you make of what's going on? You're absolutely not. Now, this is a completely different kind of protest. This is not backed by the West.

It's opposed by the West. It's not fermented by the NGOs. It's opposed by the NGOs. The NGOs in Armenia support Paschignan. It was they who brought him to power. It's exactly the same thing happened as in Ukraine. They're obviously on a slightly smaller scale. There was a protest movement against the previous Armenian government,

the one that existed before Pashinian. Many of the same claims about corruption were made against that government that were made against Yanukovych's government. Probably there was some truth to those claims. One shouldn't be naive about this. At the same time, I have to say that the investigation the judicial proceedings that you might have expected to clear out corruption in Armenia, don't have seemed to have happened on anything like the kind of scale

that the claims of corruption might have just led one to expect, which is again exactly what has happened in Ukraine. I mean, you know, we've seen no real improvement. We've had no improvements at all in the corruption situation in Ukraine, even though corruption was supposed to be the battle against corruption, was supposed to be the rallying club cry in Ukraine. This is, obviously, the real motivations were completely different. But anyway, this is a pro-Western leader, of that there is no doubt at all.

This is a pro-supported again by the same forces, the NGO forces in Armenia. He successfully came to power on the back of those forces, like the Maidan movement did in Ukraine. And my opinion is the same as yours. He's led Armenia to disaster. He's led to Armenia to disaster in a war over Nagorno-Karabakh, where he antagonized Armenia's historic ally, which was Russia,

and showed no desire to defend Nagorno-Karabakh, and seemed on the contrary keen to offload it onto Azerbaijan, as quickly as he could so that he could just press on with his push to integrate Armenia into the Western institutions, the EU and eventually NATO. And of course what that's now done is it's emboldened Azerbaijan, which is now making more demands. The present protests in Armenia are about the session, the giving back or giving away to Azerbaijan. of four villages along the border. And quite plausibly, once he's done that, if he's able to do it,

Azerbaijan will come back and ask for more and more still. And they'll probably want the corridor to Nahitjavan and all of those things. So there have been protests against Paschignan before. Will these protests be different? Well, they look larger to me, but of course it's difficult to gauge the size of a protest from the distance of London. I think what makes them different this time is that they appear to have the backing of the Armenian church. And apparently the person who's leading the protests is a cleric. and from what I can tell

he is supported by the Catholicus, the head of the Armenian Church at least the Catholicus is not coming up and telling him that he shouldn't be leading these protests. Now the Armenian Church is, I think it's fair to say, one of the most influential institutions in Armenia. It's one of the oldest churches in the world, by the way. And I would have thought that if the church

which embodies to a great extent Armenian nationhood comes out and speaks out in this kind of way. Then I would have thought that Paschena is in very great political difficulties. Having said that, he's got the backing of the West. You're not going to see the same complaints made against him from the West that you see against the government in Georgia. On the contrary, you're going to see articles before long, telling us that this is all a Russian plot, just as the foreign agent's law in Georgia is supposed to be a Russian plot. And, well, you know, this isn't over. It's not played out.

Pashinyan himself is not going to simply walk away or go. This protest might escalate, it might grow, but it's far from a full. gone conclusion that it will succeed. Archbishop Bagrat Yes. The leader of the protests in Armenia. Yes. And many people are saying he should be the next

leader of Armenia. He should take over for Pasjaniad. Which, of course, may seem strange to Westerners, but both Cyprus and Greece has a history of having a history of having priests as leaders. In Cyprus, your president for a long time was the Archbishop and head of the

church in Cyprus. And it's not widely remembered in Greece, but before my birth, there was a time when the regent in Greece was in fact the Archbishop there also. Just a second. All right. They're also starting to say that this is a Russian plot. by the way so that's what we started of course predictable okay let's uh let's see how things unfold in armenia the durand dot locals.com we are in rumble odyssey bitchute telegram rock finn and twitter x and go to the duran shop 15% off merchandise use the code get ready 15 take care