The Duran Podcast - German elections, government coalition of losers

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

German elections, government coalition of losersThe Duran: Episode 2153

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the elections in Germany. And we have the CDU, CSU as the first party. We then have the AFD with second place, a big improvement from the AFD. The SPD crumbled and Delinque did very well. Yeah. The greens, I would say the greens crumbled, but they held on to about 11, 12%. if I remember the exact number, but they did fall quite a bit. And unfortunately, the BSW, Sada Wagonacht, did not make it into Parliament.

I mean, we're talking by 0.03 points. I mean, right there, but her party could not make it into the Bundestag. So anyway, what are your thoughts on the German election results? So Black Rock Frederick Mertz, perhaps as the new Chancellor. My God. My God. Anyway, what are your thoughts? Well, in some respects, the more things change in Germany, the more the more

the remain the same. We've had an election. The CDUCSU came first. The CDUCSU came first. Friedrich Mautz will be the next Chancellor of Germany. Nobody doubts that. There will be a grand coalition. probably with the SPD.

I mean, I can't really see how a government can be formed now without the SPD, given that Mitz and the CDU rule out any kind of coalition with the IFDA. So the SPD, which has been completely incomprehensibly repudiated by German voters, is going to remain in government. I mean, just hold on to that thought because they will. Probably, I mean, the story, the word is that Olaf Schultz, utterly discredited chancellor, on his way out, probably the SBD will choose Boris Bistoria as the extremely hawkish defense minister as their new leader. Why do they think that will do them

any good at all? I really can't imagine, but that's what they pursue. So we're going to have the CDU, CSU, SBD, forming a grand coalition probably with the Greens, because in spite of the fact that, you know, the CDUCSU and the Social Democrats might just be able to eke out a majority. I don't think it's a bit of a particularly strong one. And I think that one way or the other, the Greens will probably have to be included in some form. Otherwise, I'm not sure that the arithmetic will work. However, this is a coalition of losers. And I think this is the key thing to understand.

The CDU-CSU got less than 30% in an election which they claim to have won. This is their second worst results in German electoral history. Ever since the CDU, CSU was created by Conrad Adanauer after the formation of the German Federal Republic, directly after the Second World War. This is a disastrous result for them. We had a deeply unpopular government in Germany, to put it mildly, the Social Democrats and the Greens, and not just unpopular, but discredited and obviously failed. And the CDU, CSU couldn't even achieve 30% of the vote. So, this is a sign that the German public are not impressed with the CDU, CSU.

Remember, this is the party of Adinau, it's the party of Helmut Kohl, it's the party of Angela Merkel, it's the party that has dominated German politics, as I said, since the formation of the German Federal Republic, apart from a period in the 70s when the SPD was the dominant party. So it's been dominating German politics all that time. It's normally, historically, always polls above 40 percent, and it's now down to 28. I mean, this is, in reality and in truth, an all but catastrophic outcome. The political class, the political establishment in Germany is clinging on, but electorally speaking, it's clinging on by his fingernails. And it's very, very close in some respects to being repudiated.

And we have the, what is now clearly the real opposition party, the one which is starting to gain momentum, which is the aif der. Every factor in German politics, history, the media landscape. The position of the political class, the conservatism of large parts of the German electorate, which means that they tend to stick by the parties that they know, arguably, is working against the IFD. And yet they've not just exceeded, increased their vote. They're now polling well above. They've actually won in a federal election more than 20% of the vote, around 21% of the vote.

And, Ali, this is a breakthrough for them. They are saying that they are the party of the future. That might be premature to say where they're going to be subjected to a sustained attack over the next few years, four years. But unless Mertz could turn things around economically. And very much, how can he? I mean, even if he had the most radical, dynamic ideas of all, which he doesn't, by the way, despite what people say.

I mean, he's going to be forced into coalition with the parties that made up the government that has just failed. So it's difficult to see how this new government can really provide a way forward for Germany that represents a significant break from the past. So the IFTA looks poll positions to gain the momentum and to lead Germany forward. Now, there is a third development, which is really very interesting and very difficult to know quite what to make of. First of all, the big surprise in the election is the sudden revival of DELINCA. Now, DELINCA is actually the East German Communist Party, or at least it was that originally.

After German reunification, it re-labeled itself, the Party of Democratic Socialism. It elected a new leader who was Gregor Gisig, who is a charismatic and clever man, a fine orator, an extremely capable lawyer in East Germany, and, by the way, a full member during the period of the East German-German-Democratic Republic. He was already a member of the party at that time. He, in some ways, that he's very different as a personality. He reminds me a little in terms of his charisma and ability to Jean-Luc Melanchon in France, though I want to make it clear.

I think he's some respects, a more serious man. But he did increasingly look as if the delinca was in eclipse. They broke through in one election. They got as many as 11% of the votes. for a time as if they would break through into West Germany. It didn't quite happen, and then the Greens came back, and they were pushed back a lot, and it really looked as if with the BSW forming, they would go finally into eclipse. Well, it hasn't happened.

In fact, instead, they surpassed the BSW, Zara Varga-Knecked party. We'll come to why that may have happened in a moment. But suffice to say that they seem to have won over a lot of young people, especially in West Germany, basically by presenting themselves as the party that would successfully oppose the IEFDA party. It was the strong anti-IFDAI. They've had an awful lot of support from the media. I've seen some of that in Britain. And I have to say, I suspect that putting aside Gergo Gisier,

his real abilities as a political leader. It's partly an assisted success. This is my own guess. I mean, I'm not in Germany. I can imagine some of the young people that I met in West Germany some months ago. If you remember, I was there some months ago. I can quite easily imagine them, by the way, voting for a party like Delinko, despite their feelings of deep disgust for the German.

political establishment. It looks like it's outside the political class, but somehow it still manages to be more mainstream than the BSW is. It would be very interesting to see whether this endures. But to the extent that DeLinka still considers itself to be a socialist party, which to a certain extent does, and Zara Vargernick's party obviously considers itself to be a socialist party. It means that the combined left, the old left, if you like, in Germany, has now gained 14% of the vote, which is, in my opinion, from what I know, a post-war record. So a swing to the right in Germany with the IFDA, a significant swing to the right. something of a swing to the left as well. As for the BSW, I think their big problem is that they've not

been around for very long. They were only formed about 10 months ago. The election took place before they properly organized and established a proper organization. Again, the media is very, very opposed to them. It may be that despite the fact that they've just fallen short, of getting into the Bundestag, some individual BSW MPs will have been elected. I understand that in Germany there are direct elections or something of that kind in some constituencies. So I would have thought that my guess is they will still have a voice in the parliament, even though they won't be represented as a bloc there.

But anyway, interesting results. a gradual repudiation by the German people of their political class, a very bad result for the CDU, CSU, just to repeat again. But ultimately, if you're talking about Germany, it's going to get a government that is going to deliver more of the same. I think the key words that you said are gradual. And to me, gradual is not enough for Germany, to save Germany. I mean, Germany Germany needed change this election. And we didn't expect. I don't think anyone expected a big change to happen.

In other words, I have to be able to form a government. That was never going to happen. But, you know, the result is going to be more of the same. Actually, it may even be more hawkish. Mertz. I mean, Schultz was incompetent. Everyone knows he was a fool and he was incompetent. Mertz to me is he's just he's not a good guy man and he is he is a hawk he's uh he's very much

a globalist neoliberal yeah he's all for the for escalating with with Russia yeah he was the guy that supported the the terrorist missiles he actually told told Russia that he's going to give them an ultimatum or at least told the German parliament there's going to be an ultimatum Either you surrender in 24 hours, Putin surrenders to us, or we're going to provide tourist long-range missiles. If you combine Mertz with Historious, then you have a really bad situation. Yeah. But Mertz is also not, he's not the brightest guy out there because he went on TV after the elections and he says that Germany has to become independent of the United States, which is just a bonehead thing for him to say it's not even, it's not possible. I mean, I don't understand.

Where does Germany and Europe go? no one wants to do business with them. No one likes Europe. No one wants to do Europe. They've sanctioned Russia. The U.S. is not so hot on Europe. And Europe is Germany. Without Germany, there is no EU. So, I mean, I don't understand what Merch is thinking is. How do you become independent of the United States? Because the United States right now is the only game in town. There is no other game in town. It's the United States. That's it. So, you know, Germany and Europe is isolated. Everything they were saying about Russia, it's now on them.

They are isolated. Isolated. The entire EU, along with Germany, is completely isolated. But any, those are my thoughts there. I think we're going to get a very hawkish, a very incompetent, a very aggressive, a very hawkish government. and, you know, Germany is, they need a change. They need a change. And now they need a drastic change, and they're not going to get it.

No, no, no, do we expect them to get it? No, no, did we expect it? But you're obviously right. Because exactly, that is exactly what's happened. In fact, I read an article yesterday by a very fine economic journalist in Britain yesterday. We said that it's probably, you know, we are now close to the point where Germany won't be able to turn it around. You're quite right. They did need a dynamic, purposeful government, which would have addressed the many accumulating problems, the many problems that are accumulating

in Germany and that they needed to take a completely different direction. The fundamental problem with Germany, it's to some extent true everywhere else, of course, in Europe. But in Germany in particular, there are two factors that work strong. strongly against change. One is that until very recently in Germany's own self-conception, in the self-conception of many Germans, especially in former Western Germany, Germany was an economic and political success. It is very, very difficult for Germans to understand, those Germans, to accept and understand that the situation has turned around so completely and so radically in such a short space of time. Now, we have been saying in many,

many programs on the Duran, going back long into Merkel's years, that in fact, things in Germany were not actually good, that the economy was stagnating, that it was not developing and modernising in the way that it needed to do, that infrastructure was bad, that Germany was losing positions at the cutting edge of technologies, losing positions to the United States and China, by the way, even to Russia as well. I'm not taking even to Russia, to Russia, to Russia as well. We were saying this for a very, very long time. Most people, most people push back against us on this. Now it's become a commonplace, but it's not a commonplace that many people in Germany, at least as a critical mass of people in Germany,

who still believe that all you need to do is shuffle around chancellors. Schultz didn't do it exactly right if we bring in maths where he was a businessman. He made a lot of money. He's the person who's going to turn things around. He's the person who's all you need to do is to tweak a few things, make a few changes and all will be well. So there is unfortunately still in Germany that I met many people in Germany who are like. that, who are in denial about the extent of Germany's problems. And then I'm afraid there's the

second issue, which is the issue of the past, the fact that, as we know, between 1933 and 1945, Germany was ruled by a radical dictatorship which plunged Europe into war, carried out, well, horrors that are not going to even start to describe, and a party of the right, which is what the IFDA is. Again, can't. be very easily characterized as some kind of throwback to that, and that will mobilize some levels of opinion within German society against it. It also means the past, the memory of the past, means that Germans in particular are very, very nervous of taking steps that they think will threaten the stability of the German Federal Republic, whereas, of course, the reality is

that by putting off change, they are risking greater instability, just going forward a few years. So I agree with you. I think that I think that more you hear of him saying, he comes along, makes all sorts of preposterous comments that NATO may have disappeared by June. the Germany needs to forge its own way, as if he can. I mean, as if that is possible. He is living also in a fantasy land of a Germany that no longer exists, a Germany that bestrides the world as a great technological industrial power. I mean, that may have been true 20 years ago, 30 years ago, but he is no longer true today. So he does not understand.

the gravity of the crisis. He thinks if he cuts a few taxes here, does a bit of tinkering there, everything will be well. It won't be. If he does away with the debt break, which is the obsession now that many people have developed in Germany, that you do away with the debt break, and that will enable you to then spend money to revitalize German infrastructure. I'm going to say, all that will do is it will make Germany's economy more, like the British one and the French one, running up debt. If you go to France, they have wonderful infrastructure there, just so running up debt, creating all kinds of problems, deepening the underlying problems in Germany. It will make Germany that it will lose that

fiscal risk rigor and discipline, which it could have had. It's not going to change. That's not enough to change the situation in Germany in any fundamental way. And I think overall it will make the situation worse. Just to say again, people say Germany's got lots of fiscal space. Debt to GDP ratio is only, what, 65% or whatever it was. 65% not that long ago would have looked disastrous before the 2008 financial crisis. British and French debt level, debt to GDP. GDP ratios were of, you know, 40, I think in France's case, it's around 50%. In Britain's it was, in Britain's case, it was around 40%. You've seen how quickly the fiscal and debt position can deteriorate.

And why does anybody think in Germany it will be different? No, they keep on moving the goalposts too. 65%, but it's like you said before. or five years ago, that would have been seen as a disaster. Disaster. And, you know, Merch is, he's a business guy, but he's a black rock business guy. He's not an industrialist. He'd never made anything.

He never produced anything. If you want to get a businessman, a really successful businessman, as your chancellor, Merch is not the guy. No. He's a lawyer. Yeah. He's a lawyer. That's what he is.

I mean, I mean, he's a lawyer who's happened to sit on a lot of boards because he had, by the way, a lot of American friends. I mean, that's really why he made a lot of money. I mean, it's- Buy companies, break them up, sell them, fire people. That's Merce. Exactly. Yeah. That's the type of business, man, we're talking about.

We're not talking about a guy that was producing cars or making something. No. Machine. A factory machine. Yeah, that's not him. Yeah. So this reputation that he has as some successful businessman, no, he was a black rock vulture. That's what he was.

Period. That's it. And Merkel didn't even get along with him. No. I mean, they hated each other. I mean, that says a lot for Merkel to not like this guy. I mean, it speaks to the type of person that Merck says. I mean, you know, Merkel was not exactly the best of people either. Yes. I mean, man, for them to not get along. Yes. But, yeah, so what is, you know, what does Germany do now? I mean, I think that's the, you know, I think we have a divided Germany. I look. I look. at the map. Yeah. And you have East Germany. Yeah. And you have West Germany. You have have Yvesde. The whole map of the East was Avede. I know. Yeah. And the whole map of the West of the whole map was the black and a little bit of red. Yeah. Interesting colors for this new coalition. That was the map. Yeah. I mean, you have a Germany which is effectively split. Yes. Yes. I mean, Germany is divided again. on electoral political lines. And this is going to deepen and get worse. It's not just that Germany isn't heading anywhere economically and is not adjusting to the geopolitical realities of the modern world.

I mean, the one thing that Mertz could usefully do, for example, and Pistorius, if he becomes the leader of the SBD, could usefully, which would change the picture, would be they could say to Look, project Ukraine has failed. The time has come to start working with the Russians again and to send someone to Russia. I mean, you know, they complain that they're being cut out of the negotiations. They could just send their own people to Moscow and talk to the Russians and be included in a dialogue with the Russia. Of course, they're not going to do that. So they're not going to change any of the fundamental course that Germany is.

committed to. In East Germany about these things they think very differently. It's divided. It's divided. Yeah. It's a divided. Yeah. It's a divided country. I mean, what are the chances that that Merz actually says we need to not only engage with Russia, but we need to engage with the United States? He's positioning Germany as being against Russia and being against the United States. That's how dumb his statement was. Yes. I mean, it was about the stupidest thing you could have said on your first. I wouldn't even say your first day as chancellor.

Your first few minutes is chancellor. And what do you say that we have to go against the United States? I mean, just about as dumbest statement as you could put out there. I mean, especially given that he just received a congratulatory message from Donald Trump. We'll not take this, well, just to say, but you're absolutely right. take on both superpowers at the same time. The last time that happened was in 1941 and we all know how it ended. So what is... Yeah, what do you see things heading to? I mean, more de-industrialization? Yes, exactly. I mean, a deeper crisis, more and more problems in Germany starting to build.

There will be a sustained effort to try to stop or limit migration. At least Merz is talking about this. But I'm not... I don't want to, by the way, in any way, dismiss the importance of migration as a problem in Germany, or at least an issue in Germany. But Germany's real problem is the decline of its economy. That is the underlying problem. I mean, it was masked for a long time because Merkel was able to position Germany at the center of Europe and was able to benefit for a time from, you know, Eurozone. She would make sure that she could. And Russian gas and Chinese markets and all of those things. She was very clever, very cynical about this. But by doing so, she missed what were already

increasingly strong processes of decline. And that, I'm afraid, if Mertz isn't going to address that. And in order to address that properly, he needs to stabilize the situation. in Europe, he needs to talk to the Russians, he needs to keep lines open to the Americans, he needs to continue to trade with the Chinese, he needs to do all of those different things. If he's not going to do any of that, which he doesn't seem as if he is, and he has no real plans about, you know, from doing what you said, breaking up industries and doing those kind of things. Well, then, as I said, the industrial decline in Germany is going to accelerate. That's the nature.

Oh, that's things. I mean, it's not, you don't address the underlying problems. I mean, he's not going to challenge the euro, for example, and the role of the euro, the role of the European Central Bank, the policies of the commission, all of those kind of things. Then, as is the things, the problems in Germany are going to deepen. Yeah. Just a final question. What are the chances that he does go and approach Russia?

And would Russia welcome such an approach? I mean, I think the Russians. After everything that Germany has done, though? Well, indeed. I think if the Germans picked up the phone and said that Mets wants to visit Moscow, certainly the Russians would meet him. I don't myself think there's any possibility of things going back to the way they were before February 22. I think the Russians had been profoundly shocked by what they saw, but you could perhaps agree

some things. I mean, Putin has floated the possibility as sending gas to Germany down the one Nord Stream pint that is still functioning, for example. So I mean, you know, you might be able to do some things and you could use that as a long-term project to try to rebuild trust. I'm not saying he would succeed, but it would be a strategy. But of course, Mertz has no such strategy. He has no strategies altogether. He is someone who thinks only of tactics. He has no long-term plan. I mean, how do you get the economy back on course without the cheap, reliable Russian resources? I mean, how do you do it? How do you re-industrialize

Germany without Russia, I guess is my question. No, you can't. I mean, I do that you can. I mean, you can come up with all kinds of ideas. You can start, go back to nuclear power and all of this. It's an option. I mean, you can do some of those things. But unless you understand your geographical position and your geopolitical landscape

and you understand how Germany itself is structured and the economy is structured, you're not going to be able to change the underlying problems. And to reiterate again, even with cheap Russian gas, even with the Chinese market, even with the American market, even with the benefit of the Eurozone, the reality is that Germany has been in steady decline for a long time now. I mean, at least since I would say the millennium, and I would guess even before, I mean, things got a little better, or some people say they did as a result of the Schroeder reforms, the ones that Gerhard Schroeder carried out. I mean, there are others, part of the way, who think that those reforms made little real difference and that what helped Germany was the introduction of the Eurozone.

But anyway, the point is that we are looking at an economy that is in very long-term decline. And it's incredibly difficult to turn that round. If you are in prison, you will know what I mean by that. You need a very strong, very purposeful government, one that is capable of engaging in long-term planning, one that has a strong support within society to change things in that kind of situation. And this election has not delivered that sort of government. I mean, that's the only thing one could basically say. All right.

Very quick. A very quick question. Annalina, once again, foreign minister, yes or no? No, I can't imagine. I mean, I don't know what, I don't know what Mount Stings, but even if the Green entered the coalition, which is far from certain, by the way, I cannot imagine that Mount Wachter again as foreign ministers.

I mean, she has been the worst foreign minister I can ever remember. I mean, she has been an absolute walking disaster area. She's disliked and despised, by virtually every major player in the international scene. I can't. I mean, she even threatened the U.S. during the election, which is, again, utterly preposterous. So, I mean, the idea that Annalina can be foreign minister again. I mean, if Matt does reappoint her, then he's taken leave of his census. I mean, he's even more stupid than I thought he was. Yeah. She was so bad that my guess is that she's going to get a great promotion.

Oh, absolutely. That's how bad she was. She'll get a great promotion by. Absolutely. And the globalists, yeah. Absolutely. All right, we'll add the video there. At the durad. dot locals.com. We are on Rubble Odyssey, Pitch, Telegraph, Rockfin, X.

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