The Duran Podcast - Germany elections, momentum with AfD Alice Weidel

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

Germany elections, momentum with AfD Alice Weidel

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the upcoming elections in Germany. February 23rd is the date. We're about a month away from the big elections in Germany to snap elections in Germany. And the trend is looking very good upwards for the Aivde and Alice Vidal. For CDU Mertz, Black Rock Mertz, stagnant to Downwards, I guess. As you could say, I mean, no one really talks about Mertz at all. No. I mean, I can't imagine him as a chancellor of Germany because he's just so non-he's a non-entity,

it seems, except for the times every now and then where he talks about defeating Russia or having Putin's surrender to him, bowing down to Mertz, he talks about these things, except for these moments of his delusion. He's pretty much a non-entity. I mean, Alice Vidal has sucked up all the all the, all the, oxygen when it comes to the German elections as well as the BSW sat a Wagon X party, which also seems to be on the rise. Oler Schultz, how's he doing? The Greens, how are they doing? What are things looking like in Germany? It's a very interesting, it is a very, very interesting situation.

Now, we've still got several weeks to go and things might reverse and all kinds of things may happen. But for the moment, Vidal and the eye of debt clearly have momentum and they are now polling, I mean, all opinion polls are putting them above 20%. Some opinion polls are suggesting they may get as much as 24% I think I saw in one poll. And if they continue to get momentum, then of course, and are able to consolidate around their. that would be a major political shift, a major political revolution. And interestingly enough, the BSW, which has basically started from zero, and which many people thought would not poll enough votes to get into the Bundestag.

It needs at least 5% of the vote to actually get representation in the Bundestag. It is now polling at 7% well above that and is also grown. So what is happening is that the SPD, Schultz's party, is coming under pressure from the BSW on the left. And Mouth and the CDU, CSU are coming under pressure from the IFD. And in particular, if you're talking about the political contest between Mets and Vidal, she's running rings around him. I mean, I don't think there's any, I mean, she's proving to be a phone. more dynamic, much more charismatic, far more intelligent political leader, Zanzan Mouts himself is.

In some ways, I'm going to say this, she reminds me a little bit of the early Maloney, just saying. So, and it is having a very significant effect already on what the two big parties are doing. So, Shultz, under pressure, the BSW, which, for example, says that they want to end further German support for the war in Ukraine. He's now starting to shift on this. He's blocking further arms and financial deliveries to Ukraine. He is worried that if he continues to take a hard line on Ukraine, the SPD, which is on around 16% could see as vote for with the BSW making more gains in the SPD's West German heartlands. And with Metz, it's turning out to be the same.

Now, until a few weeks ago, he was posing as the great hardline figure who was going to stand up to Putin and all of these things, he was going to send the tourist missiles to Ukraine and do all of that. Now, if he's elected, if he becomes chancellor, I think he will still probably want to do all of those things. Lefty himself, he probably would want to do all of those things. But now in the election, he's starting to water down. He's support for Ukraine a little. So he's now becoming more careful about the delivery of terrorist missiles to Ukraine. He's talking less about that and about sending more financial and military support to Ukraine. He is hiding behind the same budget rules that

Olaf Schultz is hiding behind to say, well, maybe, maybe we have to really look at this, see about those budget rules and think about how all this is going to be done before we can move forward with that. So you can already see that there's a shift in the major parties. But I do think anybody is very convinced by it. Neither of these two big parties, neither the CDU-CSU, nor the SPD, I think, convinced many people in Germany that they have real answers to Germany's increasingly profound economic problems. Mertz is posing as the person who's going to carry out a more formal. free market shifts within Germany, he's copying from the IFDA here. When people hear that, they probably prefer to take that from Alice Vigel and from the IFDA, because she sounds more

convincing when she says this. Both parties, both the SPD and the CDU-CSU are appearing to take a somewhat harder line on migration issues. But again, I don't think anybody really believes that they are, is really convinced by them on this. It makes it seem again as if the eye of debt and even the BSW are more convincing ultimately on this topic. So that means that these two main parties for the moment are fading. The CDUCSU is perhaps not just stagnating, but even losing ground. The latest opinion poll puts them at 29%, whereas a few weeks ago they were polling at 32%. If they fall below 29%, then they're in serious trouble, by the way. And that leaves the Greens. And the Greens are the hardline party. They ardently support Ukraine. They ardently support the whole

program of, you know, changing Germany's whole energy structure, a program which Vidal and the IFTA, by the way, categorically reject. I mean, Vidal is talking about restarting Nord Stream, doing away with windmills, doing all that kind of things. The Greens are retreating into being the party that believes in and stands for those things, and which continues to stand by Ukraine. And we've had this extraordinary performance in the German cabinet with Beir-Boch basically walking out and salts trying to persuade it to stay.

We've all seen the photo. Berbock is saying, well, this wasn't really true, but my own view is it probably was actually just saying. But anyway, the Greens are standing for the policy that Germany has been following for the last three years. And it still has some support in Germany. And it means that the Greens are still polling between 10 and 12%. There will remain a political force in German life. We've discussed this before.

It's the most ideological of all the parties in Germany. Germany, it has, you know, the true believers will continue to vote for them. So they are the only party of the outgoing coalition, which could be said to be in good shape. Right, because they have the true believers. Yeah. How much will the EU freak out the globalists if IFDE does really well? They are already. I don't know about winning, but, I mean, if they're the first party, that is, if they're the first part.

I don't know if they could be the first party. Maybe they will be, maybe they will come out first. Well, I mean, what kind of a freak out are we looking at? I mean, realistically in Germany's expecting, you know, a collapse of the CDU, which is what this would be, and a surge of the IFTA. I mean, nothing like that has happened in German politics since the Second World War. I mean, there's a first time for everything. What about a strong second?

But a very strong second is now a distinct possibility. So if they come out with, say, 24, 25% of the vote and the CDU is stuck on around 29 or even less, then it is in Germany, it comes as close as you will ever get in modern Germany to a revolutionary moment. And my understanding is that they're already freaking out. The political class in Germany is already, already in a state of hysteria. about all of this, and that the EU centre is in a state of hysteria about all of this. And of course, they're blaming Elon Musk, and they're terrified that the IFDA and the Trump people are going to link up in some way, and that there's, again, talk about bans and prescriptions

and that kind of thing. But if we get there on the 23rd of February, and we get that kind of outcome. Then, as I said, this will be an earthquake, a political earthquake in Germany. And it'll be interesting to see what they do, because, first of all, I don't believe the CDU, CSU, would want to go into coalition with the IFDAM. That can be completely excluded. I think there would be very wary about going into coalition with the Greens because so much of the Greens energy program,

is so disliked by the CDUCSU grassroots. So we would probably at that point have another grand coalition, CDUCSU SPD, METS would become the Chancellor, Olaf Schultz would still be there. It would be more of the same, more drift, more decay, but with a very strong opposition by the IFDA, with the BSW in the Parliament, now chasing the SPD's heels and a political class in great anger and in great panic and probably looking for ways to close the threat, both from the right and the left down. And we could probably see more pressure on these two parties, police raids, investigations of their leaders, threats to ban them.

all that kind of thing. I mean, you're a politically very unstable period in Germany, in Germany coming on top of the economic problems and an unstable period for Europe. Unstable for Germany, but also stable for the political class if you get, a CDU, CS, USPD. So, I mean, you have a lot of instability in Germany. Yes. In the economics of Germany. No.

But for the political class, as you say, it's more of the same. Nothing really changes, except now they have Aiv De in a stronger position and the BSW in a stronger position, but they remain in power for the next however many years. Does Germany have that type, that kind of time? No. I mean, do they realize that Germany has been and is being deindustrialized, is being taken down by the globalist forces, by their own doing, by their own doing, by their own CDU, CSU-S-P-D, green, especially green, ideologies. No.

Do they understand this? No, they don't. Because it seems like they feel they have time to continue more of the same that we saw from Angela Merkel stretching all the way to Schultz. It doesn't seem like they have that kind of time anymore. No, they don't. I mean, this is the point, because it is a false stability. it would build on the false stability of the Merkel era, which we discussed many times,

whilst Angela Merkel was Chancellor, that in fact, what was going on was that beneath the appearance of seeming stability, Germany was already in a state of decay. And by the way, we were saying that in programme after programme after programme, and notice that it's now become mainstream. Now that Merkel has gone, everybody says this, everybody is writing, as if this is some great revelation and it's something that people have never noticed before. We were talking about this for years. And what an attempt to create a grand coalition of the CDU and the SPD would be,

would be an attempt to preserve that stability, even as the instability that exists just beneath, is actually intensifying and getting worse. Germany does not need stability, doesn't want political stability at the moment. What Germany needs is change. That is what Germany needs. It needs to actually put behind it the orthodoxes of the Merkel. and actually starts to look at the underlying problems that have been building up in Germany for a very, very long time and start to address them and to address them seriously.

The fact the German industry has become uncompetitive, that the economy has lost its capacity for innovation, the fact that it's been led into a crisis with Russia, which Merkel, despite a denials, played an instrumental role. in setting the scene full. So it needs to completely change, but the political class will try and disregard the effect of the elections and will try to preserve things as they are and hope that eventually the tide will turn, the storm will pass, and things will go back to the way they were. I've said this before, and I said this in previous programs, it is a very important, it is very, very difficult for people outside Germany to understand how profoundly provincial

German politicians actually are. It's a very decentralized country in some ways. The concept of local politics, East politics, is greater in Germany than anywhere else. It's very unusual for German politicians, especially given the way in which the political system in Germany is organized to actually sit back and think of the whole picture or and to actually come out and say things that will seriously challenge the comfortable small world in which they live. So it's going to be very, very difficult for Germany to change. Certainly, If you've got change now, if we got a radically different direction, Germany still has the time and the space to make use of it. But it's not the United States.

And four more years of drift would be an absolute disaster for Germany. But that is what the political class is determined that Germany is going to get. The German people are starting to have doubts, which is why the IFD and the BSW rising. Yeah. I wonder if it's just if it's too little, too late. You know, I mean, four years? Four years. Four years is a very long time.

Yeah. Or two years. I mean, you know, you get reports about the state of the economy in Germany. And it's, I don't know if they have that time. No, well, I mean, I've been hearing that the chemical industry, which was one of the mainstays of the German economy, is now on its last legs. I mean, without gas and with the general crisis, I mean, they are basically closing down. And there's problems apparently with the car industry. The Chinese are offering to buy the Volkswagen factories. There's resistance to this. I mean, the whole place is in a...

is, I would say it's exactly falling apart, but things are now visibly going very, very wrong. And of course, to repeat again, the problem is that this is an industrial structure, an economic structure, which under the appearance of stability, has been allowed to decay. there's not been that change within Germany, that revisiting of how industry should be managed that Germany needed. They've never set up, you know, they've never really been big in any of the new technologies. They've full lost positions over time in things where once upon a time, historically they were very strong, such as aerospace, for example. They've retreated, They retreated for many years into the car industry.

The car industry, however, is being overtaken by new technologies coming out of China and the United States. They're in a very, very bad place. And I don't think the political class yet understands that. You would think they would be in a better place, given the fact that Ursula is German. And that the EU, you would think that the EU would skew towards a benefiting Germany. But what the EU has done is it's actually helped in Germany's demise. Yes, it has because what... It's accelerated it.

What has happened? And this is, again, a point which I think we were making many times on many programs. People came away with the wrong idea that Germany was running, the EU. Germany benefited in a kind of way from the EU in the sense that it had protected markets. But of course, those protected markets have now come back to see. it because it took away further incentives to innovate. But even as Germany was running things seemingly on its own behalf, what it was actually doing was piling up power at the EU center.

And the EU center has now become the parasite that's killing the host, because that's what it's doing. All right. We will end it there. Ursula, Ursula, the parasite killing the host. Most. Remember here? We'll end it there, the durad.locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Fitche, Telegrand, Rock, Fit, and X.

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