The Duran Podcast - Germany's tough guy Chancellor Merz

Episode Date: May 10, 2025

Germany's tough guy Chancellor Merz

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Mertz, Chancellor Mertz, who made it on the second round of voting. The reports that we're getting are that the CDU managed to make some deals with Delinque, not so much with the Greens. And that's what got Mertz 325 votes, so he could finally become Chancellor. Very embarrassing event for Mertz. So now he's trying to position. himself as the tough guy, given that he was completely embarrassed and weakened during the vote for Chancellor. He's talking about the United States, the United States staying out of Germany

and to stop meddling in Germany. I imagine he's going to start talking tough against Russia. He's going to make trips to visit Macron to meet with Poland and position him. position himself as the strong chancellor who's going to bring Germany back. I believe that is the phrase that he uses, Germany is back or Germany is going to come back or something like that. That's what Mertz is talking about. That's what he's aiming for. Your thoughts on?

I think he's living and borrowed time. I think that the more the Germans see him, and this now extends to the German people and to the German political class. more unimpressive he looks. Now, he didn't do well in the German election, he got just over 28% of the vote. Now, Angela Merkel in the various elections that she held had, and by the way, it's important to say that overall, very gradually, CDU support slipped under Merkel, not always and not consistently, but nonetheless, the worst result she ever got, I believe was about 32%. 32 and a half percent. So Meertz has significantly underperformed compared to the kind of votes

that the CDUCSU used to get, which were classically over 40 percent, 28.5 percent or 28.13 percent, whatever it was, is very, very poor. The Germans people did not warm to him. They don't like him. It's now clear that he doesn't have solid support within his own party. Now, it is unprecedented for a chancellor or a would-be chancellor of a party that has won an election and has formed a coalition, a coalition with a majority in Germany to fail to get elected on the first round. Yeah, I followed German politics for quite a number of years. The vote that took place to formally appoints. point, Matt's chancellor, is normally a formality.

Everybody assumed that that was what this vote would be. Now, he failed by 18 votes. Now, that means 18 members of his coalition decided not to support him. And five of them voted against him. And yes, no doubt the CDU did make deals with probably the two opposition parties. I suspect both DeLinker and the Greens. DeLinker and the Greens pretend that they are anti-system parties. Certainly Delinka does.

That they're outside the political, well, the Greens are absolutely part of the political mainstream. But Delinka claims to be outside the political, you know, class, the political system. In fact, they are themselves a semi-system party. They absolutely do not want elections, new elections in Germany, or a political crisis in Germany, which would make the IFD even stronger and which could probably result in Zeyovagnik's group breaking into the Bundestag and becoming a rival for DeLinker there. So you can understand why Delinka wanting to avoid that would lend votes to Mets to be elected. But there we have the leader of the German right as he likes to represent himself, the man who's going to bring the

CDU back to its conservative roots. And he's having to cut deals already. He's cut deals with the Social Democrats in order to form a coalition. And he's given the Social Democrats the discredited party that lost the last election and led the failed Schultz government, which Germans widely hold him content. So he had to cut deals with them. He's given them a disproportionate number of the top ministerial positions, including the finance ministry. So he's had to cut deals with the Social Democrats. He cut deals after the election with the, well, he didn't cut a deal, but he proposed migrant policies, which led to his party voting together with the IFDA in the Bundestag, despite saying that he would never, ever, ever work with the eye of death.

And now it looks like he's cut some kind of shabby deals with DeLinka and possibly the Greens as well in order to become Chancellor. It is a very unattractive look. It suggests a man who is very, very shallow principles, somebody who's desperate to become Chancellor at almost any price, and somebody who has no way. vision or real ideas about what to do in order to turn the situation in Germany around. He's closing his ears to all please to try and get pipeline gas from Russia coming back to Germany again. He's provided no real plan for how to change the situation for German

industry. He is saying that the United States should not interfere in German politics, which I suspect many will see as a sign that he's working towards banning the IFD, that that is his ultimate intention, because what does he mean when he says that the American shouldn't interfere in German politics? The Americans are criticized. steps which are being taken towards banning the IFDA. So I think that is what Matt is heading towards doing. And he's going to talk to Macroll and he's going to visit Warsaw and of course he's not said so.

But I think it's only a question of time before he goes to Kiev and embraces the great totem pole and figure that all of these people in Europe, the EU center and its allies, all support, who is of course Vladimir Zelensky. So that is his choice of friends, even though more and more people in Germany can see that this is going wrong. It's not working. It's taking Germany in completely the wrong direction. I think he is going to go to Kiev, hasn't he? No doubt of it. Absolutely, no doubt. I believe he hasn't. I don't know. Maybe he has, maybe he hasn't.

I haven't heard the announcement, but I'm sure he will. I mean, I think he's at a question of time before he does. Absolutely. What's he trying to do with France, France and Poland and this whole recreation of the Weimar Triangle and all of this stuff? What he wants to do, I think, is to lead Germany in some form into the coalition of the willing that Macron, Stama have been cobbling together. I still don't think that extends to sending German troops to Ukraine as part of a reassurance force or anything of that kind.

But I think he wants to take an even more hawkish line and an even more pro-Ukrainian line than Schultz did if that is possible. And I think that's really what it's all about. There will also be talking about rearmament and there's lots of issues to sort out there. Macron wants all the new weapons to be bought in France. The Germans have been talking about buying weapons in the United States. But then, as we see, Mertz himself is in some ways antagonistic to the new U.S. administration. So maybe there's a agreement going to be made there too. But ultimately, I think that Mitz and Macron, again, I find an awful lot of common grounds, ground with each other.

Because I think ultimately they agree on many things. The one thing I would say about Mass is that he doesn't get on with people. He has long-running feuds. He had a massive feud with Angela Merkel. He apparently dislikes Ursula intensely, and it is a personal feud. It's not one based on policy. It's one of the reasons why many people within the CDU don't like him. So all kinds of problems, probably.

on the horizon as well, we're probably going to see an unbalanced, disjointed government in Germany, led by old chancellor that nobody likes and a chancellor who has no real ideas. At least he gets along with Macron. They're both globalists. They're both bankers. They're both globalists. They're both globalists. They, well, Mertz doesn't like Ursula and Macron would like nothing more than to take for Ursula in a de facto kind of way, but he would like to become the emperor of Europe. So he would like Queen Ursula to somehow be diminished. And they both want to escalate with Russia.

They both want war with Russia, which Ursula also wants. Absolutely. It's war with Russia that binds them all together. That's what keeps them united. Yes. Macron doesn't get along with Ursula either. But again, essentially it's a personal thing. Merz doesn't get along with Ursula.

It doesn't mean that they fundamentally disagree. It's just that each one of these people think... It's clicks, high school stuff. Absolutely. That's all. That's all it is. Exactly. And sooner or later, there will be a reckoning in Germany.

I don't think this government is going to survive very long. I think it would be a very unhappy government. But, and I think, by the way, if the CDU electorate discovers that deals have been done with Delinka and the Greens to make Matt's chancellor, that's ever confirmed, that will not go down well at all. I mean, you know, especially the Greens aren't enough. The CDU rank and file loathe the Greens, and many of them dislike Deluxe. Linka as well. They see them as basically communists and in who are, which is by the way, largely true. I mean, the linker is essentially the repackaged East German Communist Party. Just saying, it's more than that, but there is a strong element of that about it. So, you know, it's not

going to go down at all well with the CDU leadership because the CDU membership were led to believe when Mertz became the CDU's leader that he was going to bring the CDU closer to its roots, which was as a right-wing Christian anti-communist party. So, I mean, you know, that he might become chancellor with the backing of folks of ex-communists. It's not a good look at all. Yeah. He's not a good look at all. Anyway, we'll leave it there.

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