The Duran Podcast - Guyana-Venezuela crisis intensifies

Episode Date: December 3, 2023

Guyana-Venezuela crisis intensifies

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the crisis that is developing in Guyana, close to Venezuela. And it is a border dispute, I guess, is one way that you can describe this, perhaps a possible, well, a referendum. And the fear is that we could have Venezuela possibly making moves towards a part. part of of Guyana, part that is divided by the, by the river, Esseqiba River. And this is a, yeah, this is a dispute that is starting to pick up pace. And of course, there's oil involved as well, a lot of oil right off the coast of Guyana. and I think it was I think Exxon was was was there and obviously we understand Venezuela and their relationship with with the collective West and these big corporations. So there's a lot of moving, moving parts to what's going on.

And even Brazil is is seeming to get involved in what could be a possible conflict in Latin America. What's going on here? Yes, indeed. Now, this is another legacy of the British Empire. It's funny how the British Empire always turns up as the background caused to all kinds of conflicts. This is another legacy of the British Empire. Now, the thing to say is that Guyana sometimes referred to as British Guyana was until the 1960s a British colony and a very brutally run colony, by the way. I'm not going to go into the internal history of Guyana, but suffice to say that it is sad.

Anyway, the British were in control of this territory in the 19th century. It's one of the few places in South America where the predominant language, by the way, is English, and in many ways the culture in Guyana is closer to that of the British Caribbean islands than it is to that of the rest of South America. Anyway, in the 19th century, the British were, of course, the most powerful country in the world at that time, and whose empire spanned the globe, established this colony, and they entered into a bit of quarrel with Venezuela over where exactly the border of this colony was to be reached.

And the British insisted that it was to be pushed all the way to the, I think it was the Orinoka River, and the Venezuelans said that it was with this river that you were mentioning. and anyway, there was then an arbitration in the 1980-90s. Remember again, Britain was the most powerful country in the world at that time. And there was the Americans represented Venezuela. They were backing Venezuela. At that time, they said that the Venezuelans should have this territory,

which is not saying it today, of course. And the British was saying that their colonies should have this territory. and there was a Russian arbitrator who was supposed to make the decision. He sided with the British, the Venezuelan's belief to this day that he was bribed and quite possibly he was. Now, this territory that we're arguing about, that's being argued about, is two-thirds, it's a big territory. It's two-thirds of the territory of Guyana.

Guyana remained a British colony until 1962, as is a very sad history. And whilst the British Empire, Britain was in control, there was not very much that Venezuela could do. But when Guyana became independent, an agreement was reached in 1966, that there should be negotiations between Guyana and Venezuela. to settle this dispute. Those negotiations have never gone anywhere. And of course now oil has been discovered.

And Exxon is moving in and they're busy developing this region developing this region of Guyana. And at the same time, and perhaps it's a coincidence, but more probably not despite, because of the failure of these negotiations

which have gone on for decades the UN Secretary General has referred the whole dispute to the International Court of Justice in the Hague. Now the Venezuelans believe and they're probably right that the International Court of Justice

is going to side with Guyana because it is based in the Netherlands all these courts today tend to favour Western interests. Exxon is an oil company, it's a Western oil, it's American oil company. So they assume that the court will decide in Guyana's favour. And this has ignited this whole conflict. And Venezuela is now holding a referendum on the 1st of December. And that referendum will say, assuming that people vote for it in Venezuela, which they probably will, that referendum will say that

Venezuela renews its claim to this territory, that it rejects the decision of the International Court of Justice if it does decide in favour of Guyana, and of course it will authorise the Venezuelan government to do whatever it needs to do, in order to bring this territory claimed by Guyana under Venezuelan control. Now, Venezuela has a far more powerful military than Guyana, does and the Venezuelan military is I understand being mobilized I get the sense that most people

in Venezuela back the feelings the views of their government so this is an extremely tense situation indeed there could be a conflict and Brazil is becoming extremely nervous about this Lula is moving troops to the area the area is also joins Brazil and I suspect that the Brazilians will try to broker some kind of peace over the next few weeks. But it is a tense situation and of course behind it is the United States and what it might decide to do. Will it back Guyana country which is English speaking still supported by Britain in many respects? will it support Exxon, which it probably would, and will it take action against Venezuela? So this is it conflict which has the possibility, the potential to spiral out of control?

Is Maduro taken a risk by making these efforts, this referendum and these moves? He is taking a risk, but again, I suspect that if you ask him, he'll say that his hand has been forced. probably, quite plausibly, it has been forced and forced deliberately in that, of course, for Exxon to develop the oil reserves in this region, presumably they need a clear-cut decision, legal decision, that this area is indeed Guyana and not Venezuelan. And that's why this referral to the international court has been made. and of course there are probably still some people in Washington in fact I'm sure there are lots of people in Washington

who still hanker for the overthrow of Maduro despite the fact that Biden has been trying to repair relations at least to some extent and so you provoke Venezuela into taking action which you know the Venezuelans I suspect do feel strongly about this

provoke a Venezuela into taking action. And that way, you open the way for American intervention, so you think, in order to defeat aggression, the aggression of a strong country, Venezuela, against a weak country, Guyana. So I think if you ask you got Maduro to one side, this is what you would say.

It's another one of those bombs that the British Empire planted. which has been left around unexploded. And somebody has taken a decision to explode it now. What kind of deal do you think Brazil could broker? Just a final question. I mean, what? Very good question. What could Lula do?

I mean, the most logical thing would be to allow Venezuela to participate in developing the oil reserves in Guyana. Venezuela's own oil industry is in some chaos and probably couldn't do that at the moment. A more practical thing now would be to tell the government in Guyana, look, get Exxon off the scene, postpone this decision in the international court. Let's sit down and talk and see whether we can hammer something out. It may take a few more years, but we can probably find a compromise if we act. sensibly with each other. Okay.

We'll leave it there. The durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitch-shoots, telegram, rock fin, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop. 20% off. Use the code that Duran 20. Take care.