The Duran Podcast - Incursion into Rafah and Biden's failed diplomacy

Episode Date: March 24, 2024

Incursion into Rafah and Biden's failed diplomacy

All right, Alexander. Let's talk about the situation in Israel and Gaza, specifically in Gaza and Rafa. We've had statements from Israeli officials saying that they are going to enter Rafa, even if the U.S. tells them not to enter. Even if the entire world condemns them, we've actually heard a statement from an Israeli official say as much, even if the entire world. turns against Israel and condemns them. They don't care. They're going to enter Rafah. Meanwhile, you have Anthony Blinkin. He was in Cairo. And Anthony Blinken is signaling that they're trying to put together some sort of a ceasefire as well as a post-Gaza governance plan or something along those lines with various Arab nations. And it looks like the big condition to get the ceasefire approved from the Israeli side,

as well as Hamas, but mostly from the Israeli side, is to straighten out the terms for the hostage releases, for the release of hostages. And that's where everything is kind of, kind of hinging on. Anyway, what is the situation in Gaza, in Rafah, in Israel, and with Anthony Blinken in Egypt? Yeah, I mean, I think before we discuss this, I think it's important to go back and go back to what we were saying much earlier over the conflict. Because we have repeatedly made the point in our various programs that there is a steady, big build-up of diplomatic and political pressure around the world. the United States has been isolating itself. It's become increasingly isolated by vetoing ceasefire resolutions of the Security Council. It is losing support. The administration has been

losing support in some key American states, Michigan, for example, because of that. But by taking that stance, it's also seen its support, support for the US, collapse in the Middle East itself. It's become increasingly isolated in the Middle East, and it's seen that the global majority is starting to build up against it. And we also made the point sooner or later, if the United States persisted in taking the stance that it was taking, probably there would be a referral to the General Assembly, and we might even start eventually to see moves towards pushing for a Uniting for Peace resolution, imposing a ceasefire. And what we also said was that soon or later the United States

would start to shift in the face of this pressure, both domestic and international, and would come up with its own proposal or would agree to a ceasefire resolution going through the Security Council. And in effect, that's where we are. That's what's now starting to happen. The administration sees

that it is paying an unacceptably high political price domestically in certain key battleground states, and they're becoming increasingly worried that they've lost massive amount of political ground. Bear in mind that the Israelis have been talking about the attack on Rafa for weeks. It's not happened. Clearly, there's been some kind of exchanges and arguments behind the scenes with the Americans. So even though, you know, there's a lot of talk about the attack on Rafa, it hasn't happened up to this point. And one gets the sense that finally, something has happened. We don't quite know what, but, you know, all kinds of things might be going on behind the scenes.

Something has happened behind the scenes, which has caused some people in the administration to throw in the towel and say, look, we've got to go for some kind of ceasefire resolution. So they come up with a ceasefire resolution. Now, the proposal to get hostages released in return for mass release of prisoners in Israeli jails, that's actually what Hamas started with back on the 7th of October. Now, in saying that, I don't, I want to make it very clear. I don't approve of this. I am totally opposed to taking innocent people as hostages.

But what Hamas said it did when he took all of those hostages is that it said that it took hostages in order to force the Israelis to release Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. So this actually, if it were to happen, would concede what Hamas was intending at the outset. Probably there's a lot of discussion and argument about this. The Israelis won't be happy. They will say that this is a capitulation to terrorism,

which in a sense it is. They will also try to hold on to some prisoners and release others. And we will have a very, very complicated and difficult negotiation around that. But anyway, the United States appears to have, come around and accepted that so they're agreeing to this to this extraordinary step. The US is also now talking about a full ceasefire. They're prepared to use the word ceasefire instead of, say, humanitarian pause. They're talking at the moment about a six-week ceasefire as opposed to an open-ended one.

But remember, if there is a ceasefire that lasts for six weeks, the pressure to renew it will be very strong. So we see that the United States is gradually starting to shift gears. It's taken them a long time to get here, but they've got to that point in the end. They have this continued problem, which is Netanyahu in Israel and the government he leads, an Israeli opinion, which is on this issue solidly behind Netanyahu. So they don't want to break with Israel. They're trying to get the Israelis to agree to this resolution or to some kind of resolution. The head of, I think it's Mossad, is apparently flying to Qatar to participate in the negotiations

there for the resolution. The Israelis, however, if a resolution in the form that is being proposed passes, through the Security Council are bound to see it as a major blow and as a defeat. So they're going to resist and we see what the US has been up to. We've had Chuck Schumer coming out

saying, you know, time for Netanyahu to depart from the scene. They're trying, in effect, to reorder the political situation in Israel itself in order to get, to find people in Israel that will agree with what they're trying to do and perhaps put pressure on Netanyahu himself

to agree to proposals, which to be very clear are basically about getting Joe out of trouble. How do you explain the statements from Netanyahu government officials saying that they are going to enter Rafah? Yeah. And what happens if they do? What happens to the Biden? And what if they do, what happens to Biden in all of these plans?

That is a very good question. Now, I mean, a lot of people say that the United States has enormous leverage over Israel. I think that's true up to a certain point. But if the Israelis outright defy what the United States is doing, if they defy a resolution from the Security Council, and of course we don't know that the Americans will be prepared to support a resolution. like this in the security council if the Israelis outright oppose it. But, you know, if the Israelis do that, then it puts the administration itself in an incredibly difficult position because

they will infuriate. In fact, they probably have already upset and angered, but it will infuriate even further the very large number of supporters for Israel within the United States, including its political class, and that will also affect Trump during, sorry, Biden during the forthcoming election. So, you know, it's unsurprising that Netanyahu was taking this stance, quite apart from the fact that he's under huge pressure from within Israel to complete what he started in Gaza. He's probably also calculating that he's got nothing to lose by taking a hard line with the administration on this. And that by taking a hard line, it gives him extra leverage and he might be able to extract more concessions from the administration by doing it. where it's entirely possible that the Israelis will in the end say no.

It's entirely possible that if they do say no, the administration will back off and will retreat from the idea of a ceasefire resolution of the Security Council with its tail between its legs, in which case, politically it's very bad for Biden at home. Diplomatically, it's very bad for the United States also. In fact, the situation will deteriorate. or it could be that they will try something in Israel, trying to maneuver Netanyahu out, very difficult and very dangerous thing to do and try and do.

Or alternatively, they might finally say to themselves, look, however difficult and bad for us it is, we have to back this resolution. The resolution passes. It's probably not going to be initially a Chapter 7 resolution, that is to say a binding one. So that will give the Israeli some room to manoeuvre. But there will then be pressure on the United States

in the face of Israeli defiance to eventually agree to a Chapter 7 resolution. And the United States will be in full-scale diplomatic retreat. So it's a very difficult situation. But it's the one they got themselves into. because way back in October, very stupidly, they gave Netanyahu carte blanche. The one thing, the one thing that might be playing for them is this. Netanyahu, who is a clever man, probably realizes by now, that there is no military outcome to the conflict in Gaza that can be packaged as a

a complete victory, that the attempt to destroy Hamas has been ultimately unsuccessful. The attempt to drive everybody out of Gaza has also been now unsuccessful. He's also aware that the Israeli economy is now in severe recession, 20% contraction. He must realize at some level that Israel and he himself, are in a kind of a trap. And it might be, because as I said, that he's a clever man, is that he might eventually say, look, the Americans have put this enormous pressure upon us.

We have to back off. Don't blame me. Blame Biden. And he then goes to his allies of the United States and works to get a new administration more favorable to Israel and himself. So that might be another game that gets played over the next few weeks. We'll just have to wait and see.

But for the moment at least, as you rightly say, the Israelis are acting to find. And both their self-interest and their feelings show why they would. And the administration is ultimately largely to blame for the fact that they're taking the stance that they are. The Biden administration. The Biden administration, absolutely. Would you, would you say that most of this is, if not all of this, is driven by domestic U.S. politics and the election? I put it in the polling, as well as the recent primary voting, where a lot of people in key swing states like Michigan voted uncommitted. They didn't want to vote for for Biden Democrats, or is there an international foreign policy component?

There is an internet. I put it like this. I'd say 70% it's domestic, 30% it's international. The people of the State Department in the Department of Defense, in the CIA, they worry about the international dimension. And they do talk about this. And they do talk to people like Jake Sullivan and Tony Blinken especially about this. but of course the core team around Biden himself,

what they are worried about is the election in November. And putting aside what has happened in Michigan, I think the thing that must be spoken more than anything else is that according to some polls, you know, doesn't know how far to trust polls in the United States, but according to some polls, a majority of young people, or at least a plurality of young people in America, and now thinking of voting for Donald Trump.

Now that is astonishing, actually, because as long, far back as I can remember, young people in America have always voted Democrat. So if that is indeed really the case, that it must be setting big alarm bells within the White House, within Biden's team. And since apparently the Gaza war is one of the reasons that young people are giving in America

for not wanting to support Biden, that might be another thing that's pressing them to make the decisions that they are. But anyway, the point is that very slowly, very grudgingly, resisting every inch of the way, they've now come finally to the point of advocating a ceasefire, as we said they would,

even though they haven't yet taken the plunge and all sorts of things could happen. that might make them back off. Yeah. Yeah. But I can't imagine Netanyahu wanting to accommodate Biden, especially during this election cycle, given the fact that everyone understands Netanyahu and Biden despise each other.

But from before the war, they've never liked each other. Yeah. So, I mean, yeah. Absolutely. They've never liked. They loathe each other. No, but Netanyahu is no reason, no reason emotionally or at the moment politically to just do what Biden wants. And the fact that Biden is now quite clearly trying to leverage him out of the prime minister's job

and is getting Chuck Schumer to make speeches like the one that Schumer recently made. That's going to make, and that's going to make Netanyahu even more angry and even more inclined to dig in his heels. But as I said, Netanyahu is nothing, if not a cunning man. And he may be saying to himself, look, I'm already in a trap. And this does provide me with a way out where I can convincingly tell my electors, my own voting base in Israel, plus my friends in the United States, that the blame is not mine. It is entirely Biden's.

I'd been left alone to do what I wanted. I'd have finished the job in Gaza. I'd have finished the job in Lebanon. I'd have sorted all of this out. But this weak, jellyfish of a man, this duplicitous, treacherous president in the United States, tied my hands and didn't let me do it. And, you know, that's the kind of message I can imagine Netanyahu trying to give.

not one I think he particularly wants to give, by the way. Netanyahu has always traded politically within Israel on the fact that he's somebody who has particularly good relations with the Americans. But given the fact that he has limited choices, it might be what he decides to do. But we'll see what happens. It's a complicated game that's being played.

it always has been. I mean, this whole business that's happened in Gaza has been complicated right from the beginning. But it's important to say, we've got to the point where the Americans are now finally talking about a ceasefire, an actual ceasefire, even if only for a limited time.

But the diplomatic and political damage already has been colossal. It's been colossal for Israel. which has seen its economy contract. It's seen its army, you know, heavily, you know, fought in ways that, of course, it losses. It's seen Israel lose a lot of its support around the world. And, of course, with the United States, it's been a geopolitical disaster. And there's no other word for it than that.

Yeah. And, you know, the daily images and the suffering in Gaza is, it's just off the chart, off the scale. It's off the charts and off the scale. And of course, in the West, we see only a fraction of this. Elsewhere around the world,

in the Muslim world, in the global, in the global majority, they see this every day. And it's what they, you know, the lead story that people are most interested in.

And it's also created a certain radicalization amongst people in Europe, in particular. in the United States also. So as I said, this has been a catastrophic affair right from the beginning.

And to repeat again, it didn't need to be this way. I mean, whatever your feelings are perhaps, Netanyahu, Israel, the origins of the state of Israel, all of those things. And I understand people have feelings about this. The fact is that had the American government

acted in a more intelligent and sophisticated way back in October, the geopolitical disaster that both it and Israel are now going to experience would have been avoided. That's not a value judgment. That was the blank check. Exactly. That's not a value judgment. That's just a statement of fact. And you're absolutely right.

A count blanche. You never, never give people blank checks. I mean, it's a crazy thing to do. I mean, you know, that's the route to bankruptcy. And that's what's happened on this occasion. Yeah, that's, yeah, Tarik was mentioning that during our live stream. Absolutely. Yeah, when we were talking about this very issue.

And when we've been saying it for a while now, I mean, we've, I think, you know, from the origins of this conflict. of this war, we've been saying that the critical error, the colossal mistake that the Biden White House made was going to Netanyahu and saying, do whatever you want. And Netanyahu said, okay. Yeah. Well, they didn't even went. That was it? Absolutely.

I mean, they went even further than that because, of course, he was in one point. The Israelis were quite clearly, I think, looking to drive everybody out of Gaza. And the Americans are trying to facilitate it. I remember Blinken going around to Jordan and Egypt and trying to get the Egyptians of the Jordanians to take people from Gaza. I mean, crazy ideas, utter stupidity, and it's paid the price. I mean, you know, that's why we are, where we are, and had a different approach been taken, thousands, tens of thousands of lives would be spared and the political situation would be completely different. The geopolitical situation would be completely different from the one we see today.

People who talk about Joe Biden, you know, this enormously experienced foreign policy president. He is the worst foreign policy president I have ever known. and I think the worst one since the Second World War, beyond any question. I mean, yeah, you know, every foreign policy decision that Biden has made, the Biden White House has made, has been, it's not only disastrous, but it's so clear and obvious what decision they should have made and what policy they should have come up with. And they go the exact opposite, knowing that that. that is going to lead to disaster, whether it's Ukraine, whether it's Gaza. Anyway, they told us when, when Biden was elected, all the mainstream media was saying, America is back, the foreign policy dream team, the foreign policy wizard Joe Biden.

And they couldn't have been more wrong, catastrophically wrong. I mean, literally, they could not have been more wrong. The worst foreign policy president I can ever think of. I mean, I don't remember a worst foreign policy president than this. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are in a rumble, odyssey, bitch, shoot, telegram, rock fin, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop.

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