The Duran Podcast - Iran-Israel fragile ceasefire deal (Live)

Episode Date: June 24, 2025

Iran-Israel fragile ceasefire deal (Live)

Okay, we are live with Alexander Mercuris. Hello to everyone that is joining us on another live stream where we are going to discuss the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Alexander, you need to do a hard stop in about 30 to 40 minutes. So let's just jump right into it. Hello to everybody. Thank you to our moderators. Alexander, what do you think of this ceasefire?

deal that allegedly President Donald Trump brokered. Well, I get to say straight away, I don't think he brokered it, but he's endorsed it. The Israelis say that Iranians have breached it. They say that they're about to strike at Iran. Because Iran breached it, Iran denies that they've breached it. This is an incredibly fragile ceasefire, and it may not hold. But I think more likely than not eventually we will get to a cessation of the fighting. And I'm going to make a suggestion.

I think that the reason the fighting is stopping is because Israel is running out of air defense interceptors. It cannot sustain a prolonged war. Apparently they told the Trump people over the weekend that Israel could not wait the two weeks. that Trump initially suggested he might need in order to decide to make a strike on Iran. That was in the American media. I think Israel is running out of space in order to continue this conflict. And there were reports yesterday in the Wall Street Journal that Israel was trying to communicate to Iran,

the fact that it was looking for a way to cease the fighting. And I think that communications of that kind were circulating between Israel and Iran. Qatar obviously was playing a significant role. The Iranians clearly also want this thing to end in some way. So they pulled their punches with the strikes against the American bases yesterday. And I think we're close to the point where this is ending through sheer exhaustion. the Israelis, as I said, running out of air defense interceptors facing limits on what they can do. The Iranians, for their part, have always consistently said that Israel stops attacking them.

They will stop attacking Israel. So they're not really saying anything more now than they have ever previously said. I mean, there's not been a negotiation in any true respect. Even the British media are admitting that the initiative for this cessation of hostilities has not come from Iran. It came from Israel and ultimately from the United States. But Trump wisely has endorsed it. He appears to be resisting demands from Israel that he escalate,

the things that we were worried about, which we discussed in the program, which we did yesterday in which you can find on the Duran. He seems to be pulling back from the regime change agenda. He seems to have decided that he wants this conflict end at the position that Vance and others in his administration were taking, which is that you take the strike that was launched against the Iranian nuclear sites and you stop there. That seems to be the line that Trump is adopting now. And I think for that we can all be grateful. because this was looking to turn into a very, very dangerous situation. And though I think that we will probably see some Israeli strikes against Iran over the next few hours,

some Iranian counter strikes, probably, hopefully we are coming to the end of this affair. As I said, if the United States doesn't want to escalate, Israel lacks the ability to keep on striking at Iran. And Iran has already said that if Israel stops, it will stop also. Well, the hot war is, it may be coming to some sort of a ceasefire, some sort of an end. But the regime change, the covert operations, I imagine, are going to really pick up speed in Iran, right? I mean, they're not going to just let the regime change go. Of course. I can't see, I can't possibly see that.

Inconceivable. In fact, again, if you go, I mean, I've been following all the British means. at the moment than the American media. But all the people who want regime change in Britain, who are very close, by the way, to the Israeli government in one form or another, they're in contact with it. They were furious this morning.

It was quite obvious they were. I mean, they thought that they had an American commitment to regime change yesterday. They were absolutely delighted about that. Suddenly, they see that the United States is turning, swerving away from that goal. They're not going to be, however, put out by that. They're going to say to themselves, well, you know, we've managed to get the United States

to launch a strike against Iran, even if the Americans are pulling back from regime change now. What we must do is we must hammer on. We must conduct our attempts to destabilize Iran internally. we must try to set the various ethnicities in Iran against each other. We're going to try and do everything we possibly can to keep the agenda of a regime change going. That hasn't changed. The Netanyahu government hasn't given up on that objective. That's still widely supported in Israel.

The neocons back here, that hasn't tended at all. Yeah, so Trump is taking credit for this. He's saying this is an example of. Peace through strength. It's nothing of the sort. Basically, all Trump had to do was to stop striking Iran. Or to if you want to rephrase it to tell Netanyahu Israel to stop striking Iran. But one of the same thing, right? The U.S. stopped striking Iran. Israel stopped striking Iran, whatever. That was all he had to do, because as you said, Iran's position was very clear from the beginning of this conflict. when Israel and the U.S.

stop attacking us, then we'll stop. I mean, that was their condition. That's all that Trump really had to do. Everything else that he's saying about the, it was the B-2 bombers and it was my art of the deal negotiating skills and all of that is complete nonsense.

Yes. He says these things. He's taking a victory lap, but that's all he had to do was just agree to stop attacking Iran. And the reason he agreed to, to that is because the situation was not going well for them. And the regime change was failing as well.

The military operation was failing. The regime change operation was failing. Iron dome is not so iron. That's also been exposed. So he really didn't have any other course of action. And they're just now going to do the regime change via their strength, I would say, which is the covert stuff. Yes.

I think one has to say this. First of all, Trump has a habit of claiming that he's mediated and brokered peace agreements, which he hasn't mediated or broken. The Indian government is absolutely furious with him because he claims that he brokered and mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Just the other day, the Indians were again saying that Trump repeatedly making this claim is entirely untrue that. Pakistan asked India directly for a ceasefire and the Indians agreed. So he has a habit of doing this.

However, having said that, he is a politician and we can understand why he would do this. We shouldn't be swept along by his claims, however. The reality is exactly the one that you said. Now, he did have a choice. He could have continued with the regime change agenda. The United States could have continued to launch strikes against Iran. That looked like what he was planning to do until a few hours ago. One should give him credit for the fact that he decided in the end not to do that. There are multiple reasons probably why he decided not to do that. One is that the political base in the United States, people like Marjorie, Taylor Green, the Federalists, all of those people were coming out and saying that they were strongly opposed

to any regime change operation against Iran. So, I mean, I'm sure he pays attention to that. There was an important, a crucial meeting between Arachi, the Iranian Foreign Minister and Putin in Moscow yesterday, in which the Russians made it quite clear that they would be prepared to help Iran, that they were prepared to provide air defense missiles, Peskov, by the way, Putin's spokesman, has all but said as much that the Russians are prepared over the long term to provide assistance to Iran. It did look for a time as if a superpower confrontation was, you know, emerging over the horizon. And Trump, again, I think, realized that this was not a good idea and he decided that he didn't want to go there.

you know, he did have the wisdom and the sense to stop at this point. But there are still attempts being made, I think, to pull him along. We see more attacks by Israel, as I said, coming against Iran over the next few hours. And of course, the regime change agenda has not gone away. Go ahead. Go ahead. I understand. I'm finished. I've finished. Okay. I want your thoughts on these reasons why. why Trump decided to pull back from this regime change, the Straits of Hormuz. Rubio had to actually call China and beg China for help on the streets of Hormuz.

That rattled Trump, and we could tell it rattled Trump because he posted on truth social drill, baby drill. You know it got to him the fact that the streets of Hormuz might close, and that would have, we all know what that would have done, would have sent oil much higher, and it would have been a big problem for the world economies. especially the United States. So the Straits of Hormous, that rattled him.

The fact that the strike on Fordo was not successful. And every single, pretty much every single collective West media outlet yesterday started to run stories saying as much, including the Financial Times, which is no friend of Iran and very friendly to the U.S. administration, they ran stories saying that, Yeah, the strike on Fordot really wasn't an obliteration of the facility. The uranium went missing. Does Russia have the uranium? Probably.

Maybe. Who knows? China? Maybe it's somewhere in Iran. No one knows. Nothing was really accomplished. Nothing was accomplished. You know, Iran must not get a nuclear weapon.

All of this talk. That wasn't accomplished at all. So, I mean, I think all of these factors led Trump to. including the most important one, which I think you outlined, which is Israel running out of missiles. I think they all led to Trump having to accept this ceasefire, branded as his brokered peace deal, peace through strength, art of the deal.

A lot of people are going to buy it. A lot of people will not buy it. But here we are. Can I just say, I agree with every point that you've just made. And I also think the straits of all moves. threat really did rattle him. You can see that with the, you know, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, baby drill post, which was, clearly he was rattled. And he is clearly been, um, infuriated by the information that fordow and the other sites probably have survived. He wrote an extraordinary

about that we do. I mean, absolutely. You can see he was, he was upset and very, very angry about this and saying there's all fake news and people don't know what they're talking about. And of course, that these places were totally destroyed, unfortunately for him. The evidence says otherwise, you're absolutely correct. This wasn't working. And one thing one must say about Trump is that when he senses that something is going wrong, he stops. And that's what he did yesterday. Well, yeah. Okay, we'll get some questions, Alexander, but he stops, but I want your thoughts on this. He did a lot of damage by going down this path. A tremendous amount of damage. You've talked a lot

about the NPT, the non-proliferation treaty being completely trashed. The IAEA has no more credibility. Their credibility is lost just like the ICC. A lot of red lines were crossed Israel attacks Iran. That's a huge red line. Iran set missiles into Israel, huge red line. The United States missiles into Iran, huge red line. Iran sending missiles into Qatar, even though it was a face-saving strike, still a red line. Iran going after a U.S. air base, even though it was a face-saving strike, still a red line. calling for regime change and the assassination of another country's leader, another red line crossed.

I mean, he really caused so much damage. And I have to ask you the main question in all of this. For what? For what? Well, nothing. Because as you correctly said, nothing has been achieved. In terms of ending Iran's nuclear enrichment nuclear program, that hasn't happened and regime change has not been achieved.

The one thing that might come out of this, which strangely enough might actually play in the end to the US's long-term advantage, is that the Iranians have had to turn to the Russians, which they've always shown intense reluctance to do, and actually had to go to Moscow. It's likely that there will be a defense agreement between Iran and Russia at some point over the next few months. That will give the Russians some degree of control over Iran, which means that in future, as used to happen in the Cold War, we might be able to get a situation set up where the United States and Russia are able to negotiate directly with each other and bring their proxies in the Middle East under control. Now, that used to happen during the Cold War. It hasn't happened very much since. I'm not any means confidence. and it will happen with this, on this occasion. But in every other respect, this thing is completely negative.

I don't see that this has ended up with any positives at all, either for Donald Trump or for the United States. Or for the world. Or for the world. And you've mentioned how Russia and China are furious with everything. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. Let's get to some questions.

As Ariel says, but Iran attacked the U.S. bases yesterday escalating? Right. Well, it was face saving. I mean, the fact that they gave advanced notice of it warning about it means that this is an attack where the punches were pulled. The deal went down. Like, how do you think all of this was organized? Because it's no coincidence that all of this happened as it actually was in Moscow. Yeah, I mean, which is important in itself and indicative that things were going on behind the scenes. Far more had been going on behind the scenes that we know about. But the first reports that suggested that the thing was coming to an end, appeared in the Wall Street Journal, with the Israelis apparently saying that they were communicating to the Iranians, that they'd achieved their mission, and that they wanted to stop.

And that was the first indication yesterday. Now, something then went, you know, there were probably lots of channels operating. Qatar probably played the biggest role. the Iranians, I think there was a lodge attempt made yesterday to try to get the Iranians to ask publicly for a ceasefire or to offer a ceasefire or something like that. There was radio silence from Iran about that because the Iranians were not going to do that.

And then sensibly, Trump went out and said that a ceasefire has been agreed by Israel and Iran. And apparently at that point when he said that, that wasn't true. But anyway, he said that he had effect jumped the gun. You know, he moved forward. But he announced the ceasefire before anything had been really agreed. And that, I think, was what basically solidified it. I say solidified it because, of course, at the moment,

Israel is talking about striking it Iran again. So it might not be completely over. But I think it probably is mostly over. Kev Jones, thank you for that super sticker. Texas Grown says, what is this missile exchange that was evacuated and off target? It's getting really weird here. Trump's playing into this like they rule the universe,

but I guess most peeps are sycophant cult of personality followers. Well, there's some element of that of the last, but I don't think you could say that altogether, because going back to what we were discussing, something yesterday, and which you can see in our program, you can see that all sorts of important American officials, Hexas, Rubio to some extent, and Vance mostly, were maneuvering, and I think with some skill, actually, I mean, I appreciate that many people will push back against that, but they were maneuvering yesterday to try to bring this whole situation under control and to

draw a line in it, under it. So one can't just talk about psychophancy and things of that kind. people did preserve their independent judgment. And some cool heads were still, you know, functioning yesterday, with some effect, as became clear, over the course of the day. But, you know, we aren't out of this because the regime change agenda, as Alex said correctly, still applies. And this is not a reflection of a country that is the master of the universe and completely has everything. under control, I would say it shows the precise opposite. Yeah, Iranian Kido says they're not, they're just not going to stop. They will carry this secret campaign of sabotage against Iran,

even if this war is over for now. Yeah, I completely agree. I mean, Alex said that, and he's absolutely right. This is just a punctuation mark in a long-term regime change project. And the regime change project has been advanced significantly, not in terms of of it achieving success in Iran, but in it becoming the policy of the United States. Because the president of the United States has very unwisely published comments, which appeared to endorse it. Marcus Bezito says the strike at Fordor was so unsuccessful that Iran accepted peace. Is Trump now entitled to an apology from the Duran's face-saving skepticism? No, I think that the skepticism is universally shared.

by pretty much the entire media, as I think we've explained on this program. The way Iran did not ask for a ceasefire. This is universally accepted, by the way. There is no there is no real dispute about this. The initiative for the ceasefire, the first people to request it with Israelis. Matthew says, will we have a superpower clash? Well, it's possible. I mean, if this thing continues, which it might, of course, do, then, as I said, the Russians yesterday were floating the possibility of S-300 and S-400 missile deliveries to Iran. This time, as I said, presumably under Russian control. I remember, I received messages last year that the Russians were offering to Iran to integrate Iran's air defense system into their own. Now, that would take a long time to do, by the way. I mean, it's not something that can be set up in a day.

But, of course, if that happens, then we're talking about a very different situation in terms of a conventional attack on Iran. Iranian Kido says Iran would never give in to foreign demand over its sovereign right to enrich uranium, space program or missile program. Even Iranians opposed to the government want to agree with that. I've spoken to several Iranian friends that I have in London. All of them, by the way, are very, very opposed.

to the current government, and they all agree with you. Iranian, Kira says Iranians are now demanding the government to set aside that nonsensical religious decree, after all nuclear weapons, will do a better job deterring the enemy than any military pact ever will. Look at North Korea. Well, I am not going to speak for everybody in Iran. What I will say is that even last year, and I followed the Iranian media, at least the English language Iranian media,

I can see a whole string of Iranian officials basically making statements clearly directed of the Supreme Leader, Hamene, saying for heaven's sake, set aside this decree. We are going to be attacked. We need to take that final step. Give us the leeway to do it. Harmony reaffirmed the decree and of course, Pezschgian, the president, supported him in this. Now, whether that will continue, I don't know. But I'm going to make a guess like you, that the people who in Iran who say, let's move forward and obtain nuclear weapons, that they've been massively strengthened by this affair. Another huge red line that was crossed assassinating scientists, government officials. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, huge red line. Absolutely. Yes.

Yes. Raid said no USD priced oil and gas tanker can pass a straight of Hormuz checkmate. Well, indeed, if that happens, it is a massive crisis. And as Alex said, I actually think that that together with the bubbling discontent amongst the base were probably the two factors that pushed Trump to make the decision that he did. He was rattled by the Russians. I mean, he made comments about, you know, what Medvedev had said about, you know, third parties offering to provide nuclear weapons to Iran. And he said, you know, what does Medvedev mean here?

Does he mean that Russia is prepared to provide Iran with nuclear weapons? And Medvedev said, no, we are going to abide by our, you know, nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations. unlike certain other people, and you can guess who he meant that. But he left it open for other third parties, of course, to do exactly what he was talking about, and of course he meets North Korea. Well, Medvedev highlighted the consequences of Trump's actions. It just shows that the Trump administration did not think this thing through. Well, they didn't think this through.

I mean, this all was done and argued out. and impulsively and in conditions of immense anger. You can see that. Diane Sylvain says, any type of help for the genocide in Palestine? Well, if this situation leads to a crisis between Israel and Iran, which involves the superpowers, then potentially it could do.

And can I just say why? I mean, because the superpowers, China, Russia, the United States at some level must understand, will understand that the source of this crisis, the starting point of everything is what is going on in the Palestinian territories. First and foremost in Gaza, we are probably closer to the point where that situation is resolved than we were two weeks ago. That might perhaps be something else to take from this, but I say, that with so much, you know, tentativeness that I wouldn't put, I wouldn't bank on it. As Patavall says, Israeli regime change plan turned out to be Ukraine-style drone terror attacks

and threatening phone calls to Iranian generals. No wonder they failed. If this phone call is true, if the recording is true, then it is absolutely terrible. I don't know that it is true because, of course, we've got to be very careful. All kinds of fakes appear. And for that reason, I'm not going to say what was on in this call. But if it is true, and it wouldn't surprise me, it is terrible. In all other respects, I agree with you. Studio Rainer says, does Trump need the ceasefire due to the Strait of Hormuz? I heard that China also after Iran not to close it, yeah.

Yes, exactly. Elliot says, when will Iran give up the false hope of good relations with the West and fully pivot towards Russia and China? They look weak and they keep losing more and more. I think you put your finger actually on a real issue. I think that there continues to be within Iran, intense suspicion, especially of Russia. The Russian sense it, by the way. If you're looking at Russian public opinion, they sense the fact that Iran, that, you know,

there's a large body of people in Iran who are not very sympathetic to them. And you can see this. You could see that the, you know, the Russian public, the population, the people who comment and write on threads. The nice sympathetic to Iran, as you might expect, given what has happened. Previous president, Abraham Raizi, understood that the way forward was through engagement with the bricks, with Russia and China, that the hope of improving relations with the United States and with the West was a mirage. The current president, Pezishan, however, still

clung to that false hope. I think now, perhaps the Iranians do finally understand that it is a false hope. Kevin T.K. said, what is the path to victory for Russia and Ukraine? Is it realistic that they could achieve regime change in Kiev? And if so, how? How can Russia win strategically against the West? Well, I mean, they are winning strategically against the West. And they absolutely can achieve regime change in Kiev, if they wish. I mean, they can catch to Kiev. That may very well be how it ends. So, I mean, don't just, don't discount that possibility at all. Iranian Kido says no country can stop Iran from becoming a nuclear state. What's standing against Iran is Iran itself. What is needed is a strong political will. Yes. I mean, to make it very clear, I do not want to see Iran acquire nuclear weapons.

I think it would be massively destabilizing in the Middle East. It would lead to other countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia going. nuclear and it would be the final collapse of the whole system of nuclear non-proliferation, which I personally am a strong supporter of. I think the better course for Iran would be to deepen its relations with the Eurasian states, the other brick states, Russia and China, and accept the Russian offer of a defence agreement and take the steps needed to use Russian help in order to. to ensure the protection of Iran. But I suspect that some people in Iran will say, let's go nuclear, because we can't fully trust the Russians

and we need nuclear weapons in order to assert our independence and our freedom to maneuver as a sovereign country. And those people have been strengthened as a result of this affair. Ami Loggin says, did Iranian leadership sell uranium? Was the whole action about stealing uranium from Iranian people? No, I've seen no evidence of that. No sign of it at all.

Honeybell, thank you for that super sticker. Elliot says they have damaged Iranian infrastructure and now they will suffocate Iran with sanctions. Iran will go through tough times soon. Well, Iran has already been enduring sanctions on an enormous scale for the last 30 years and it still stands. I mean, it's self-sufficient in food production, I understand.

It could be self-sufficient in energy, but it's energy industries in some disorganisation. And of course it's been badly damaged. There one should an overestimate the extent of the damage. Iran can find its way through. It can cope with sanctions. It can actually see off the sanctions if it integrates further with the Eurasian states,

with Russia and China. This is quite obvious to me. You find lots of commentaries by various people who are Iranians, who don't get this at all, and who still believe that in order for Iran to prosper economically, it needs sanctions relief from the West. Andreas, Iran needs to pay more attention to covert ups on their territory. The initial attacks were very costly. You're telling me. I think it's an understatement. Diane Sylvain says, what about regime change in Israel?

Netanyahu in trouble? Well, I don't know. I'm not going to speculate about this, but I mean, maybe there will be elections. I mean, Netanyahu is one of the great survivors of Israeli politics. I think that never, ever count him out until he's gone. Studio Rainer says, was this done to help let out anything related to Palestine from the media? People have short attention spans, so if the goal is that, they probably achieved it. Yeah, well, I think they did it for a short time.

a short time. And I think there probably was an element of that, but I think that if we go back to Netanyahu, apparently he's been agitating for this for some time. And if I have to express my own view, I think he has been moving clearly in this direction since April of last year, when he first started to take action against Iran with a strike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus. He also made, and it's strange how people forget, this, an extraordinary speech to the US Congress last August, which also made it absolutely clear to me that at that point he was already seeking a war against Iran and aiming for regime change against Iran and wanted the United States to be involved in it. So that has been the policy.

It is not just current problems in Gaza that have led him to this point. Gaza, obviously, is a big part of the reasons, but I don't think it's just to get attention away from Gaza. It's an attempt to solve the major strategic crisis that Israel is already facing. And he believes, innocent and Yankee beliefs and the Niaqons believe that the way to do it is by taking out Iran. Iran and Kido says it's laughable. they believe aerial campaign alone can bring about a change to the Iranian political system. In 1981, most heads of states died in a bombing by M.E.K. militia. It's not farcical. It's tragic. I agree in all other respects. I mean, it's clearly wrong.

Sashan, thank you for that super sticker. Marcus Bezito said nations, winning wars don't accept unconditional ceasefires, losers do. See Russia v. Ukraine. Well, I mean, Iran right from the first beginning said that if Iran, Israel stopped attacking Iran, then Iran would stop attacking Israel. It's not, again, to repeat, it is not the Iranians who asked for the ceasefire because the Israelis who did. So if you take that as the argument, then it's, of course, Israel that has begged for a ceasefire, which Iran has granted or agreed to or accepted, which, is what their position was all along. Iran and Kido says Iran certainly don't want to be dependent on another country for its defense and certainly not a proxy of anyone.

Well, I understand that and I completely understand that that is the view in Iran. And can I just quickly say the Iranians of good reasons, historic reasons to be suspicious of the Russians. But I think that you have to put the past behind you, even though some of it is quite recent past. and look at the situation that you're in at the present time. I think it'd be very dangerous for Iran, by the way, to go towards a nuclear weapons option. And I think at the present time, a defense agreement with Russia makes more sense.

But, you know, I understand that there's a debate about this in Iran, but that's absolutely my view. Aussie Crypto says, love you guys. Have you noticed how our comical Australian government just recently did a 180 on their stance, just like... And opinion on that. Thanks, guys.

Absolutely, of course. I haven't noticed, but it doesn't surprise me in any way. Wandering Data Geek says Rare Duran L.S. bombs, 3MP, 125 aircraft, submarine, six ballistic missiles, coordinated with the USA if winning, why not launch a bigger strike? Are you talking about the United States now? Or, yeah, I guess. Yes, I guess. Well, I mean, the United States didn't launch a bigger strike because I suspect the whole question

of the strike was negotiated within the United States before in advance. I mean, there's clearly many people within the administration. And I'm not going to name them. I think it's fairly obvious who they are who do not want the United States to get involved in another forever war regime change operation in Iran. If you go to the MAGA media and listen to. the Mago people, people

like Marjorie Taylor Green, the Federalist, whatever, they are absolutely clear about this. Studio Rainer says every country will eventually get a nuke, so non-proliferation is kind of dumb. Does anyone have addent on nukes? No, it is not dumb.

It has held successfully just about since the late 1960s. But I agree it is now an intensive care. Iranian kiddos has nonproliferation already collapsed with the attack. Well, I mean, it is at the very least in intensive care. It might very well be dead. If Iran goes ahead and now moves forward and acquires nuclear weapons, then I think it is

dead. Seeker says Iran should adopt the ruble as the international trading currency and make the dollar illegal within the country. No, I don't think they should do that. I think that the Russians would not like that at all, by the way. I think that the best way to move forward is to develop these payment systems, which apparently were worked out by a team within St. Petersburg University. This is what a German economist commented called Bulsg, Munshar, said, the various payment systems that the BRICS countries are now adopting, which do not actually involve setting up alternative currencies. They involve setting up alternative payment methods, which is something different.

Iran and Kido says he felt threatening Hamine would force Iran to surrender. He doesn't understand in Shia theocracy, which government of Iran adheres to, dying for Iran is considered martyrdom and of the highest honor. They see it differently. Well, I think there's a lot of truth in that, because especially a person like Hamene, who one must assume, if I have no doubt at all, is in sincerely believes his, you know, in sincere his religious beliefs. I mean, he is programmed, if you like, to embrace martyrdom.

And I am sure that other Iranian potential successes are the same. As I say, it doesn't understand, it misunderstands the nature of the political system there. Geodome says, what does the day after Iran detonates a nuclear weapon, how would geopolitics acceptance of Iran having nukes? Well, I think this would be an enormously difficult and dangerous moment. First of all, if Israel and the United States got wind of the fact that Iran was about to acquire nuclear weapons or had acquired nuclear weapons, but not in any quantity, we would have, we would be at very, very high risk of a nuclear attack on Iran.

So be careful, you know, what you wish for. You know, this is not simple, given the rhetoric and the views that many people have. But as the day after, assuming Iran were to come out and confirm that he not only had a nuclear capability, but a strong deterrent capability, the day after Iran might be secure up to a certain degree, but the entire region would quickly change because as I said, Saudi Arabia would go nuclear very quickly. I am sure that Turkey would as well.

I can't imagine Turkey allowing Iran to go nuclear and not go nuclear itself. And Egypt might potentially follow. And then we would be in a completely different Middle East and in a completely different global landscape. If all of these countries, one after another, went nuclear, then as somebody correctly said, nuclear nonproliferation is dead.

Complete disaster. That would be a complete disaster. Annan Kowlerstein 1345 says one of the many things Iran must learn from this current situation is one, never trust or elect so-called reformers, and two, never trust anything the collective West or Israel says or does. Well, I think that in terms of the second, indisputably so. In terms of the first, there's this constant tension within Iran between people who want to carry out certain changes, social changes within Iran and those who don't. And I'm afraid there is, as I said, a deep suspicion within Iranian society of Russia, which is, I think, definitely an issue, and also a deep hankering within certain important sections of Iranian society for some sort

of rapprochement with the West and a continued belief that the route to economic prosperity is through engagement with the West. I think that is gradually changing. I think even Pezeggian is now starting to see things differently. Raizi, his predecessor, saw the things much more clearly than Pezishkan did. Studio Rainer says if Iran doesn't remove all of the phones their citizens have, then Iran will lose by Chinese phones instead because cyber gaslighting has been happening for a while now in Iran. Well, I think you point your finger at many, many of the problems that Iran undoubtedly has. I am incredulous, by the way, that Iran, like Hezbollah before, has proved so vulnerable in this area. I mean, it suggests an absolute collapse of internal security systems within Iran.

And I'm going to say it bluntly. I mean, to me, that smells of corruption. 307 fishing says I'm not an expert, but it seems like Iran may be stalling to supply weapons systems. I feel like a lot of people around the world would assist Iran. Well, I mean, it could be, but I mean, to repeat again, it's not Iran that sought the ceasefire. I mean, it was Israel that basically sorted first. The Israelis are now, you know, launching more attacks against Iran, I think, because they want to, mostly I think because they want to lead us away from this. But yesterday, the reports were starting to appear in the Wall Street Journal,

amongst others, that the Israelis were contacting Iran and were urgently saying that the point had come where they were prepared to stop. Sean Hurl says, surely Israel's survival is a disaster for Palestinians, bricks, and Iran eventually, two-state solution is dead in the water, surely. Well, I'm afraid you may be right. I'm not going to get into that discussion and this program, if only because I'm starting to run out of time. And I didn't answer a few more questions. It's a huge issue that you've done what you've touched on. Jonathan Ventura says, Good Day from California.

Is the future the Strait of Hormuz closed and a logical downturn in the global economy? Yes. I mean, I think that was perhaps the single thing that frightened Trump most. But you could see over the course of yesterday, the tone of his comments steadily shifted. Yeah. Brulah says, good day. Dr. Nemma Parvini is one half Welsh-Iranian.

It would be great to see him join one of your programs about Israel-Iran and British-European matters. It's always insightful, cheers in these mad times. Absolutely. I would agree with that. Absolutely. Stude Arana says, if the U.S. doesn't honor its diplomatic agreements, why would they honor their debt agreements? Good question. I am Valentina. I am Valentina says if Russia and China place Iran under their umbrella. Yeah, I mean, if that happens.

to me, that is the optimal outcome at this time. Optimal, not perfect, just to say, but it is optimal. But, you know, it's uncertain that that will happen. Don't forget that last year, Iran was essentially offered that very thing, and it refused it, because it still wants to maintain its own complete freedom of action. GW says the five eyes have conjunctivitis. Trump has lost the majority he rode in with, all orchestrated in my opinion. Well, I think he's a real possibility that you might be right about that. And on Carolercerian, thank you for that super sticker.

Thunders DZ says, I'm beginning to think that Trump canned the Zionists. They gave him over 200 million to help with the Iran problem, and he'll probably claim that he delivered on the deal. I think there's an awful lot to discuss about. Trump's motivations, I think one of them is that he does have a longstanding visceral dislike of the system in Iran. Remember, he is absolutely old enough to remember the Iranian hostage siege, you know, the seizure of the US hostages and the embassy. He has all of that memory behind him. He's always been friendly to Israel. I don't think he's ever liked the government

system in Iran. And I think that has made him, and blinded him to some of the underlying geopolitical realities in the region. Tasmanut says, I think the U.S. strike was done after a deal was already reached with Iran, allowing Israel and out and everyone to save face. I know an awful lot of people are saying this. I don't quite believe it myself. I think that certainly the Iranians knew that a strike was coming and clearly took precautions. So they removed the enriched uranium, they filled the entry and exit tunnels with Earth and all that. So, I mean, they clearly were prepared for an attack. But I don't think this was a collusive attack in that, in the way that you say, the subsequent Iranian attack on the American basis clearly was.

Yeah, Stude Arana says, so does Israel have a pass to do whatever they want forever, thanks to the Sampson option? No, they don't. And I think we were increasing. seeing that throughout the entire conflict that's playing out in the Middle East since October 7th, 2023. Iranian Kiddha Kiddos says Iranians are not inherently suspicious of Russians. Many Iranian students go to Russia for education in recent years. It is shifting and I agree. I mean, you know, I'm perhaps oversimplifying that this is a more complex story than, you know, I'm conveying.

But there is a degree of suspicion of Russia that undoubtedly exists. I've been told this by Iranians, even people who are supporters of the current system, in Iran itself, and some Iranians that I know here in London. From my, I think the family dictatorships, Iran, Turkey, are mature enough to live with nuclear capabilities. It might be a stabilizing factor. Well, it might be, might be, but more likely not. And I, you know, I wouldn't, it's not just what happens to the Middle East if all of these countries start acquiring nuclear weapons. And I, by the way, would not want to see other one, certainly acquiring nuclear weapons. And one wonders how stable in the long term a country like Saudi Arabia really is, just saying.

But also consider the example if all of these countries also start to. acquire nuclear weapons. I mean, it will spread right across the world to repeat again. This is a very well-understood science now. The dates on the 1930s and the technology was developed in the 1940s. It is well within the reach of most industrial or semi-industrialized countries today. Agu says an archaeology team found a 3,000-year tablet near modern-day Tel Aviv, the description in Hebrew, Red Persia is three weeks away from having a degree of whack. Yeah, I saw that before. That's a brilliant comment, by the way.

Raphael says, Alexander opened my mind. Iran was playing the same game Syria was playing behind the scenes, trying to negotiate with the West. Russia knew they killed the old president. Now Russia will move in. Well, I don't know that that's quite how it will work out. But, you know, I think that there is something in what you say. I mean, certainly Assad took the wrong diplomatic course.

I think this is, again, well understood in the region and often discussed there, including in Iran. And there is a tendency within Iran also, as I said, to try to seek rapprochement with the West, whilst at the same time maintaining a certain distance, especially Russia. They don't feel the same about China, by the way. China is further away, but Russia definitely. And that has played a role in Iranian decision making. Studio Rainer says France can sell Iran a reactor for their program. France doesn't follow the same rules with their nuclear program. Why would Iran want to buy nuclear reactors from France,

especially given the kind of personality that Macron has? They're buying nuclear reactors from Russia. There's actually a deal, I believe, to build, for the Russians to build three nuclear reactors in Iran. What one rate says, what won the U.S. the Cold War, backing dollar to oil. if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz to a nation that Gulf, to a nation, that Gulf nations, that price of oil and gas and dollars.

Well, I don't think, first of all, I'm not quite sure that was what won the United States. But put that aside, I think the problems of closure of the Straits of Hormuz are immense. And increasing numbers of countries are buying oil without using dollars. the Russian oil trade is no longer conducted in dollars at all. Just saying. Studio Rainer says peace is boring. All nations need an enemy. It's fundamental for civilizations.

No, it's not true, actually. Some nations need enemies, but far from all nations are constructed in that way. Iranian kiddo says I agree that Russia, Persia was more complex before, and I think Alexander touched on that perfectly. I'm not sure if it was his take or Alistair's. I haven't been following Alistair on this, but though I should do. Per mind, I'm very restricted in my internet. It is absolutely my take in this case.

Studio Rainer says, can you become president if you have an Israeli citizenship? I have no idea. OMG puppy says, will Bricks form a NATO-like defense alliance? Will they be picked off one by one if not? Well, at the moment, Bricks is not an alliance. and they've said repeatedly that they don't want it to be. But who knows? Now they might start thinking,

changing their views about this. If that does work out that way, it would be because of the external pressure that is placed on them. My friends, I'm afraid I have to stop. As I said, it's been a wonderful live stream, but I'm going to have to live. All right. I'll finish off the reading the rest of the questions, Alexander. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Take care. Sparky says, would Iran make a secession of hostilities contingent on Israel, letting in humanitarian aid to Gaza or even something better than that? We'll see, we'll see, Sparky, how all of this plays out. We'll see if the ceasefire even holds. Kevin T.K. says, Hungary and Slovakia block the 18th EU sanctioned package on Russia. What effects does that have?

From what I read, the EU is going to make that part of trade legislation. the blocking of Russian energy, which does not require a unanimous vote by the EU. It only requires 15 of 27 countries to vote that into legislation. So expect the banning of Russian energy to be part of EU trade legislation. So that's what Ursula is going to do with that. Studio Rainer says peace is war. Okay, Iranian Akito says people ask why Iranian still negotiate with the West. The answer is neoliberals have convinced the Iranian population since 2013 that all

economic woes are related to sanctions to hide their own corruptions. Elsa says, gentlemen, you are optimists, but as but us there, but is there any chance to have peace in the Middle East? What needs to happen? It seems hopeless to me. Well, a lot of red lines were crossed in the past couple of weeks, a lot. So it's going to take a lot to get a lot to get to where we were before those lines were crossed. Iranian, Kido says, if we are talking about this historically, like 200 years ago, sure, the loss of what Iranians call casks or caucuses to Russia is considered the lowest point in Iranian history.

Heroku, thank you for that super chat. Sparky says, is President Trump aware the U.S. and the UK overthrew Iran in 1953, and that helped lead to the 1979 hostage crisis? Not sure. Sparky if he's aware of that. Studio Rainer says, Peace is boring. All nations need an enemy. Actually, we read that.

So I think we got all the questions. Shifty Russian says, What software stack do you use for your live stream? Apulogy is from off top. A stream yard, actually, is what we're using. Geostone says, Alex, how is the Greek economy going? They say it's going well.

when I go to Greece, I don't see it as going well. But the Mitsodaki's government says it's going well. That is, that's everything. Sparky says Assad was misled by ostensible friends into trusting the wrong countries. Was the president of Iran similarly misled? I don't think so. I think Assad made a lot of wrong decisions.

But keep in mind that serious, from 2014-15 as it was beating back the regime change, the hot war regime change, the covert regime change started. So I think the same thing is going to happen with Iran. We're going to start to see a covert regime change unfolding in Iran. And that could take years. But that's probably already started and it's going to ramp up. So Iran is not out of the woods yet with this one. And Studio Rainer says, are people starting to notice Israel's influence?

I would say yes. A lot of people, including America First MAGA, is starting to notice. And it's fracturing America First MAGA. Petty Steddy says, how likely is it that Raeisi's death was an assassination rather than an accident? He seemed more competent than Pazeshkian. A lot of people say that. A lot of people think that. All right.

That is everything. Displaced African says Iran would do the world a great duty in getting a nuke and wiping. Okay. We could be a collective West sacred. Okay. We won't get into using nuclear weapons to wipe out other countries or other people. I don't think we should talk like that. The best thing that Iran can do is to take Russia up on its offer and start building proper air defense system.

because Iran obviously is not up to par. Sparky says, have you spoken to any recent Israeli refugees in Cyprus? No, Sparky, and I think there's a lot of misinformation about people coming into Cyprus and leaving Cyprus. Some people are coming into Cyprus. Actually, most of the people that come into Cyprus are just stopping into Cyprus to then fly onwards, other countries and destinations, that's most of the people. and there's also a lot of people that are traveling to Cyprus in order to go back to Israel to various countries of the Middle East. So you're getting a lot of that as well.

People are not coming to Cyprus at the moment, or at least not the majority of people, are coming to Cyprus at the moment in order to stay here. Flying Boar says Iran should impeach Pesachian. The guy is naive and stupid. Don't say that. Don't say that. he's uh i think his position has has changed quite a bit from what it was uh say six months ago that has changed a lot from what it was six months ago but as i said iran is not is not out of this yet so uh they need to they need to take up russia and china on their offer that's what they need

to do we'll see if they do it okay that is uh that is everything we will end this live stream Thanks for all of the questions. And we'll be back with more videos. Take care.