The Duran Podcast - Iran maximum pressure and Russian mediation

Episode Date: February 17, 2025

Iran maximum pressure and Russian mediation

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Trump's maximum pressure policy on Iran. And perhaps we can talk a bit more on the possibility that Russia is going to help the Trump administration, perhaps mediate for a possible negotiation between the United States and Iran, at least as it concerns the nuclear weapon issue. Trump has said many times in many statements that Iran must not get a nuclear weapon no matter what, and that he is ready to negotiate in some way or in some form so that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon. He definitely, at least at this point in time, he definitely does not want a hot war or conflict with Iran. His policy is maximum pressure.

on the one end while trying to figure out a way to negotiate with Iran and prevent a nuclear weapon for Iran on the other side of things. And perhaps Russia can play a role in all of this. Once again, they had this with the JCPOA, which Trump pulled out of. But anyway, here we are in 2025. And we're talking about negotiating something with Iran so that they do not get a nuclear weapon. It's very interesting. And again, here we have to be careful to separate some of the rhetoric that's coming from the Trump administration and the actual steps that the Trump administration is, in fact, taking. It is now becoming increasingly clear that Donald Trump does not, exactly, as he said,

want to war with Iran. I mean, he apparently rejected suggestions of Israeli missile strikes and bomb strikes on Iran during the period of the transition when, you know, the Israelis were lobbying for it. Apparently, he made the same point when Netanyahu was in Washington, you know, a couple of days ago. By the way, just to also add, Trump insisted that the Gaza ceasefire be implemented, and we've seen withdrawals of Israeli troops in Gaza, which is an important fact. So again, the rhetoric may be ferocious, but the realities on the ground actually point to de-escalation. And we see also that Trump is now talking about pulling troops out of Syria again, and it's likely, I think, that he will do that.

And he said when he was talking about Iran on Air Force One, that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons, But importantly, he said that he's prepared to do a deal with the Iranians. So he's reducing everything now to the question of whether or not Iran has a nuclear weapons program. Now, shortly after Trance spoke, the leader of Iran, Ayatollah Hamanae, made a very interesting speech. He said, we are not going to negotiate with the Americans. This is absolutely unacceptable. the Americans, we negotiated with them for the JCPOA, and then they breached it. So we're not going to negotiate with the Americans.

We're not going to try and do a deal with them. But then he also went out of his way to say, we're not going to acquire nuclear weapons either. We have this religious prohibition, which prevents us from acquiring nuclear weapons. So put the Rerashirik aside, Trump says Iran doesn't get nuclear weapons. Harmoni says Iran is not going to acquire nuclear weapons. There is a possible point where the two could come together on this. And if you want to understand what Hamene is saying and also perhaps understand what the Americans are trying to do, or these Trump is trying to do, you've got to understand that

the big event over the last couple of weeks is this. that Iran concluded with Russia. Now, a lot of people have not read that agreement properly, but I think it was Article 10 of that agreement contained a specific promise. And remember, this is a treaty. It's going to be ratified by the Russian Parliament and the Iranian. I think the Russians have already ratified it. The Iranians are going to ratify it in a few weeks' time. This treaty contains a specific commitment by Iran not to acquire nuclear weapons, to abide by its non-proliferation commitments. It's there. It's clearly set out in this treaty.

So Trump is in contact with the Russians. He made those points about doing a deal with the Iranians directly after. after he spoke about his contacts with the Russians and perhaps with Putin himself. And we could see how this could work. The Russians are in a position to say to the Americans, we can guarantee that Iran is not going to acquire nuclear weapons. We have our people on the ground in Iran. We are going to take over and run their nuclear civilian,

facilities. We're going to expand the Boucher nuclear power station, but we have our technicians, our people on the ground. We are going to take over, or at least we're going to be involved in large parts of Iran's military industrial system. We're going to provide them with fighter jets and air defense systems, but we are going to have our people on the ground there in Iran. You may not trust the Iranians. But you can trust us because we have no interest or desire in Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. It is as important to us that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons as it is important to you. So we can prevent the Iranians acquiring nuclear weapons.

We can guarantee that the Iranians won't acquire nuclear weapons. This goes well beyond the guarantees that were set out in the JCPOA, where there was no one like us on the ground in Iran, where the kind of leverage over the Iranians that we will have. So that means that the way is open for you and the Iranians to do the deal. Well, Trump just has to trust the Russians then. He has to trust the Russians. Well, he has to come to an agreement and an understanding of the Russians. going on, yeah. If this is going. I think it is, actually. I think, again, it's not, it's not completely coincidence, as I said. I don't know he's a coincidence at all that he spoke to the

New York Post about his contacts with the Russians. And then straight after doing that, he talked about doing a deal with Iran. I am sure that this has been talked about between Trump and the Russians. And by the way, someone who has contacts in my mind. Oscar has told me as much. So I think that this is indeed happening. And from an Iranian point of view, Hamé doesn't want to decociate directly with the Americans, because that would be complicated. He could leave it to the Russians to some extent to do the work for him. Because he doesn't want to acquire nuclear weapons. He knows how dangerous for Iran that would be. He's imposed this prohibition in the past. What he wants is to have the maximum

pressure east. And if the Russians can guarantee to the Americans that Iran is not going to acquire nuclear weapons, then there's no need for the maximum pressure anymore following Trump's own logic. How do other countries in the Middle East view this? this possible negotiation with Iran on nuclear weapons. How does Israel react? How does Saudi Arabia react? Saudi Arabia would probably welcome it because they've now reached a kind of rapprochement with Iran themselves.

They are working with Iran of various things. They want stability in their region. So I think the Saudis would be quietly happy. Again, the one thing the Saudis do not want is Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. If the Russians are there and are able to tell the Saudis, don't worry, we have this under control, it's not going to happen, then the Saudis will be pleased. And if that leads to a relaxation of tensions between the Americans and the Iranians and a situation where there isn't going to be a war with Iran, with Iranian threats to close the

Straits of Hormuz and all of that, then these Saudis are going to be pleased. Israel is in a different position completely because Netanyahu and some of the people in Israel have for many, many years, been obsessed with Iran. They see Iran as the major danger to Israel. And they talked about cutting off the head of the snake. We saw that right through 2024, the various steps that were being made to try to set up a confrontation between Israel and Iran. There is no doubt at all in my mind now that the Biden administration was fully involved in every one of those steps, you know, the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, the assassination of Hanei in Tehran, all of those things. The Israelis will now find, have now found, that they have in Trump

a president who doesn't want to go there and who's talking about doing a deal with Iran. So how does this affect Israel and Trump with regards to what he's been saying about Gaza then? I mean, does this carry over to that or can this be separated, Iran and the United States and Israel and Trump when it comes to Gaza? Well, I think the first thing to say is look at this from Israel's long term real security interests. if there is general stability and peace in the Middle East, that leads to stability and peace for Israel itself. And perhaps out of that, some kind of general understanding and agreement can come. What, of course, it prevents happening is some of these wild ideas that have been floating in Israel, you know, establishing greater Israel, rebuilding the temple, all of that kind of thing.

Netanyahu's obsession with Iran? I mean, he's obsessed with Iran. Absolutely. Netanyahu's obsession with Iran, all of these things. If those are your priority, then this is bad news for Israel. If the security of Israel is your priority, then a situation where there's a general relaxation of tensions in the Middle East is good for Israel, and it might eventually lead. That's going to be a difficult,

complex and very tortious road, but it might eventually lead to some kind of settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which is at the root of all the problems. All right. We will end the video there, the durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchie, Telegram, RockFit, and X. Go to the Durant Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video. The link to the Durant Shop is in the description box down below. Take care.