The Duran Podcast - Iran retaliation waiting game continues

Episode Date: September 15, 2024

Iran retaliation waiting game continues

All right, Alexandra, let's do an update on what is happening in the Middle East and specifically what is happening with the situation with Iran, the escalation into a conflict with Iran. And it looks like the U.S. was preparing for the Iranian retaliation by moving warships and U.S. military assets into the region. But now it appears that the U.S. may be pulling back some of those military assets, perhaps a signal from the U.S. a belief from the U.S., from the Pentagon that Iran is not going to retaliate any time in the near future? What are your thoughts on what's going on?

I found this. What has happened, actually? What has been pulled back, actually, from the region? This is the most interesting story, because, in fact, what happened is that following the events of the Islamahani. assassination in Tehran and following all the threats from Tehran for massive retaliation, which by the way continue. I checked before we did this program what the Iranian media is saying and they're still

talking about Haniyya and they're still talking about the fact that Iran will retaliate one day when it is ready and when it's positioned to do so. Anyway, immediately after that, the United States again moved massive assets, military assets to the Middle East, on at least the same scale that it did in the spring. When it was widely talked about, we did programs about it at the time. And as it has done on previous occasions, since the current crisis began following her massive. attack on Israel in October last year. So we have had two carrier groups, two aircraft carriers with all the accompanying warships from the US Navy patrolling the Gulf of Vermont within close range of Iran itself. And that was an enormous commitment of US naval power. And it meant that the US wasn't a

able to deploy a carrier group to the eastern Pacific. So that for a time, throughout this period, the US had no military asset, no carrier group, to confront China, how the Chinese actually planned, which of course they don't have any such plans, but had the Chinese actually planned to start something in Taiwan or the South China, or anything of that sort.

So this is a major commitment of military power, and it strongly suggests that the US was seriously concerned that Iran might do something or alternatively, and I think this is a possibility we must recognize that the US

was actually involved with the Netanyahu government's planning in Israel at some level for some kind of strike on Iran. I think this has to be you know, it has to be a possibility that is taken seriously. In fact, I am not, I don't think it's just a possibility.

I think it's almost certainly true. Anyway, what has happened is that the Iranians have not acted in the way that the US expected. They have not launched their strikes against Iran. And the Pentagon has been becoming increasingly worried, apparently. and nervous that two carrier groups are tied up in the Gulf of Vermont, basically floating around and doing nothing. And so they've now withdrawn one. And it's going to be redeployed somewhere, perhaps to the Asia Pacific. That's what some of the reports are suggesting. So the US is

scaling down his forces in the Middle East, which some commentators, including some in Britain are pointing out shows how overextended the US militarily has become, that it doesn't have enough available assets, naval assets, so that it can be simultaneously and equally strong in the Pacific and in the Middle East, it's having to make choices about supporting one or defending the other. It's going to have to wind down the conflict in Ukraine if it's going to escalate a conflict with Iran.

And then you have the whole issue, like you said, in China. I mean, that's a whole other issue. They're trying to get the ball rolling as far as, you know, China and Taiwan is concerned. So they have to make choices. I think the obvious choice is that they're going to have to, disengage, wrap up, or whatever you want to call it, Ukraine? Yeah, that, of course, is the rational approach.

It's the way that a rational person would think. It follows the logic once articulated by Frederick the Great, one of the greatest military geniuses of all time, who once said those who defend everything, defend nothing, that you have to prioritize, You have to say to yourself, where can I be strong? Where is it important for me to be strong? And where do I scale down?

And if I can find a diplomatic solution to my problems instead of a military one somewhere, then I should go and seek that diplomatic solution. But of course, we are dealing with people in Washington who think quite differently. And they will say to themselves, well, look, we are overextended. So what that means is, not that we should try and scale down our wars, But on the contrary, that we should escalate at least one so that we can finally achieve a victory there and reassign the forces that we have after we've achieved that victory to where we want them to be so that we could fight our next war somewhere else.

That is much more likely to be the kind of discussion that these people are engaged in. because just to remind everybody, as I've said many times, these people have no reverse gear. Maybe they should, you know, use diplomacy in all of the possible conflict areas that they're involved in or thinking about involving themselves. And maybe they should search for diplomacy in Ukraine. Maybe they should search for diplomacy in the Middle East. And maybe they should just not escalate in China. That's a solution. But, you know.

Well, as they said, pigs might one day fly and the neocons might one day turn to diplomacy. So I don't expect either to happen. I think pigs flying is more likely actually. Seeing pigs fly is more likely than seeing, you know, sprout wings and fly is more likely than seeing neocons turn to diplomacy. That's my own view. But anyway, there we go. The other thing to say about this is that you do understand, we're beginning to understand better Iranian calculations

because you see they've had this enormous American buildup again on their borders, close to them. And we see that for all the trouble and pressure they've been under, the Iranians have basically waited the Americans out. And the Americans cannot sustain the kind of massive military presence. in the Middle East indefinitely, that would be needed to really challenge Iran. So it's something to bear in mind.

And I'm sure that the Iranians calculated this. And I'm sure it's part of their reasons for responding to the events, the Hany assassination, in the way that they have. Yeah, so what is the situation now with Iran's retaliation? They're waiting it out. I mean, is there any other news there as far as what's happening with Iran? We do have the one story about the Iranian foreign minister posting on X that Iran has not supplied, given, sold out. I'm not sure exactly what he said.

Yes. Missiles to Russia, short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. And the Kremlin still has not denied the story to be quite honest. So I don't know. I guess that's a type of update. What are your thoughts on? Yeah. The Iranian foreign minister said quite clearly that it's fake news.

So the Iranians haven't supplied any missiles to Russia at all. The Kremlin, however, as you rightly say, the Russians pointedly and perhaps surprisingly, have not denied it, at least not in the same category. There have been statements by Russian officials who, you know, say that all the weapons that we use in the special military operation are our own. But they've not gone out of their way to say that, you know, this particular story is false. What they are saying is something which I think, to some extent, corroborates the original story. But even if it doesn't, it takes us further. because they are saying, and when I say the Russians are saying,

I mean, Sered Gay-Shoyev, who is the Secretary of Russia's Security Council and the former Defence Minister, in other words, a very senior official in Russia indeed. What they are saying is that Russia and Iran are in the process of completing negotiations for a major defence agreement. and there's been a meeting of BRIC's national security advisors in St. Petersburg. The Iranian national security advisor was there. He met there with Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, who's also Xi Jinping's national security advisor. But it seems that he's also been engaged in top-level talks with the Russians.

So the impression, and specifically with Shoygu himself. So it is looking as if there is a major military agreement between Iran and Russia in the works. And the Israelis are getting nervous because they responded to all of this talk about Iranian missiles going to Russia and Russian air defense missiles going to run. by sending their own big delegation to Moscow. The cover they gave was that they were looking for the Russians to help get the hostages in Gaza released. I don't believe that story. I mean, what can the Russians do to persuade Hamas to release the hostages,

which say Egypt, Jordan, all of these other countries, Iran itself, have been unable to do? So I don't take that seriously. I think it is much more likely that the Israel, Israelis went to Moscow to find out from the Russians what it is exactly that the Russians are doing with Iran and what kind of weapon systems they're intending to provide to Iran because clearly that's what's coming and what the nature of the agreement between Russia and Iran actually is. So we see all of these moves. The Israelis are making their moves. The Russians are making theirs. The Iranians are making theirs. The Iranians are making theirs. and the Americans have just pulled their Navy carrier out of the Middle East. All right. We will end the video there.

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