The Duran Podcast - Iran Strike Called Off. Inside MBS's Desperate Gamble

Episode Date: August 2, 2026

Iran Strike Called Off. Inside MBS's Desperate Gamble

All right, Alexander, we are here in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and we are going to talk about the situation in Iran or with Iran. We were going to get big strikes from the U.S. over this weekend. There was actually reports saying that the region was on high alert, and we got a true social post from U.S. President Trump. saying that there are going to be no, there are going to be no strikes into Iran. The analysis that I read, he posted about all of this on true social, the U.S. is locked and loaded and ready, but we're close to a deal. Now, what I've read about the analysis is that the reasoning for not having the big strikes, it's actually throwing it on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is basically telling Trump, please don't. Of course, Trump says countries in the Middle East and Iran are telling us not to hit them and we're close to a deal. Okay, in Trump fashion, he says that. But the reasoning that I've read as to why this is not happening is because Saudi Arabia told them to stop. Is that true? I think that is exactly true.

That's also what I've heard. And it was strongly suggested by a long article in the Financial Times, which looks like it had been briefed by somebody who knows about the situation from the insight. Now, this, we've been many times here. We've had situations where Trump announces there's going to be a big strike. There's all the preparations being made that bring us close to a big strike. It's cancelled at the last moment by Trump. Trump says there's negotiations with Iran and that a deal is imminent.

The Iranians then deny it. We've been through that cycle many times. And in some ways, this just repeats the science. But this time it feels different because I think that a decision actually was definitely and conclusively made in Washington to carry out this big strike this time. And what I've heard is that that was the expectation amongst the embassies in Tehran. And the last time this happened, there was preparations to start removing staff from the embassies and this time that those preparations also took place only they were further advanced.

So the expectation, the universal expectation in Europe was that this big strike would take place. So it wasn't just Trump changing his mind at the last moment. I think clearly there was another factor at play. The Financial Times and your sources both say the same thing. It was the Saudis. Same thing. And other sources, yeah. Other sources, CNN says it.

CNN said. That is the Saudis contacted the US. Apparently MBS called Trump himself and begged him not to go forward with a strike. And that was why Trump called it off. And the word is that the Saudis told him, if we go down this road, we're going to get into an all-out wall. and that this is going to be an absolute disaster for the whole region. And if you are looking at this whole situation from MBS's position, you can understand why.

Because the Saudis are now involved in a conflict with the Houthis. The Houthis are attacking Saudi oil installations inside Saudi Arabia itself. It's completely unclear what's going on with the Red Sea as far as I'm concerned, But my sense is that Saudi ships are not traveling through the gate of tears, you know, the southern end of the Red Sea. A type of blockade. It's a type of blockade. The Saudis rerouted tankers to pass through the Red Sea.

Then we had a rather mysterious attack on facilities in the Suez Canal, which is where the Saudis were rerouting their ships do. Some are saying that was a false flag. Others are saying that it was the Iranians, others are saying it was the Houthis. I'm not going to say who it was because I don't know. Could it be any one of those things? It could quite easily have been a full flag, by the way. And if so, the Israelis would be the obvious people.

But whoever it was, there was this attack. And altogether, the situation from a Saudi point of view is now becoming incredibly precarious. Saudi Arabia's position is that it's no longer able to export oil smoothly. If there is an all-out war, the absolute fear in Saudi Arabia is that the Iranians will start launching strikes against the desalination plants. The desalination plants keep the cities in Saudi Arabia. Arabia, it keeps them supplied with water. If that stops, the populations have to be evacuated. And I've seen some claims that if that happens, the entire political system of Saudi Arabia

will start to unravel. So you can see that they're in a very, very difficult position. The Saudis have got themselves into this. I was going to ask you, how did they get into this mess? Well, they put themselves in this mess. They put themselves in this mess because they- And they doubled in. tripled down, to be quite honest.

And NBS did. Yeah, MBS did. I mean, before the attack on the 28th of February, I do there's any doubt about this. He actively encouraged Trump to begin the war against Iran. This, despite the fact that he'd agreed in 2023, some sort of a rapprochement with Iran. He then deserted.

He talked to the Russians. He talked to the Iranians. He set the Saudi foreign minister to Iran. He said, you know, that we are back on side with you. And then he started to switch back towards the American side during the period of the MOU. And the result is that he's made the situation with Iran very fraud. And then he took the utterly disastrous decision. Perhaps he was encouraged by Trump to or the Americans to,

but he took the utterly disastrous decision of bombing Sana Airport in Yemen when a plane from Iran carrying Houthi dignitaries who'd attended the Supreme Leader's funeral in Iran were trying to return to Yemen and that was an absolutely incredible thing to do and it broke the ceasefire

between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis with the whole situation that we now see. I don't know how MBS gets out Was it the uranium enrichment? Before you talk about NBS, wasn't it the uranium enrichment deal that allegedly Trump was working on and then he backed out of, or it seems like he's backed out of it, but isn't that what moved them into this trap? I think it probably was. I mean, they've been trying to get the US to agree to Saudi Arabia being able to enrich uranium. And this has been a longstanding Saudi policy going back many, many years and to get American

help with enriching uranium. And Trump said yes, and a deal had apparently been agreed. And then Israel complained, and Trump walked it back and said that it was dependent upon the Saudis agreeing to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, which was not what the Saudis believed it was. And now it's all very unclear what is going on with that too. I think we did a program about this. Tung-swank, the chess. Yeah, that's right. Tum-svang.

The chess. There we go. The chess situation. We're at the right spot. Exactly. Where whatever move you make, you get yourself in a worse and worse position. It's true of Trump, as we've discussed many times with this Iran situation. It's true of MBS as well.

How does he get out of this? Well, this is a good question. You're just about to get at this. How does M. Well, I'm not sure he can, and there are now rumours apparently starting to circulate that his position within Saudi Arabia is starting to totter. Of course, any discussion about what is the internal situation within Saudi Arabia is very difficult and very speculative because we don't really know.

But I noticed articles starting to appear, or not so much articles, but commentaries within articles was starting to appear. But for the first time, people, for the first time in a long time, some of the princes are starting to say, well, maybe MBS really doesn't know what he's doing. Well, we'll see. How does he get out of this? He's made a very, very bad set of choices with the Iranians. And the Iranians by now totally don't trust him. I'd say that MBS this is best policy is to absolutely tell Trump, the war has to end. We can't continue with this. And if you can't negotiate a deal with the Iranians, then let us with the Russians and the Chinese do it in state. Now, you know, for that to happen, that's incredibly difficult.

Very difficult. And I can't really see the Americans. It's the right move. I can't really see the Americans doing it. But if MBS wants a way out, that's the only obvious one I can see. Instead, of course, what we're hearing is talk about a land blockade of Iran. I don't know how that's going to work, but the US is supposedly trying to talk to Pakistan and Turkey to try to get this land blockade organized. Of course, the Iranians would still be able to receive supplies through the Caspian Sea. We saw the drone attack that happened there from Ukraine,

but I suspect supplies would still get through the Caspian Sea, probably through the Caucasus as well, just to say. And I can't really see Pakistan anyway going down this route. I think that worry to do so, some of its friends, China, for example, would be very unhappy. So I don't think it's going to happen, but anyway, that's the talk at the moment. A land blockade on top of the sea blockade trying to intensify the siege on Iran, which carries enormous risks, because let's assume that the blockade is effective. And you do increase the pressure on Iran.

the Iranians have repeatedly shown that they in turn have the means to escalate. They can escalate by closing down the Red Sea with the Houthis, obviously, but they can attack oil installations across the Persian Gulf. They can attack the desalination plants. You shouldn't really want to push this in that direction. But if there's a potential, this is potentially where we might go. So I was reading an analysis. I want to say also on CNN, and they were interviewing an oil expert.

And the oil expert, this guy, basically, I'll summarize what he said. His take on things was, look, the best way for Trump to get out of this and for the U.S. to get out of this, because reserves are running low in the situation is very critical, is for Trump to just accept the fee that Iran is going to put on the oil transiting from her. He said it'll be about a dollar fee. It's not a big deal. No. And in parallel, what the United States and Saudi Arabia should do and other countries in the region is they should continue to develop the pipelines.

So eventually in the future, five, ten, twenty years out, there's less reliance on Hormuz. Yes. That was his take on things. What do you make of that? And will Trump be able to. to agree to such a thing politically? Will Israel agree to such a thing politically? Well, Rubio said it.

No way are we going to have a fee in Hormwoods. It's international maritime law, international waters, whatever, that's what they run with. I think it's an absolutely correct plan. From an American point of view, it makes absolute complete sense. It's a kind of way of walking away, basically. If you think about it,

you leave the Iranians in control of the strait of foremost. You focus instead on building pipelines and helping the Saudis to do that. You maintain peace because you need peace in the region to build those pipelines. And eventually over time, the Strait of Hormuz becomes less... Keep on, keep on going.

I just see that. Yeah. The Strait of Hormuz gradually loses its importance, which is, by the way, a disaster... It's not good for Iran, because you think about it, for Iran's point of view, It means that their control of the Strait of Hormuz over time will become less and less valuable,

and their overall long-term strategic position will decline. One of the reasons why Iran has held back before the 28th of February from closing the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, it was its long-term interest to keep it open. Exactly. But the Iranians, the Iranians, now it is impossible for them politically to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormnose, to go back to the situation that existed before. I mean, that would appear disastrous weakness in Iran and would undoubtedly create a major political crisis there.

So they start with this, and they start with this idea of levying tolls and doing all of those things, even though it upsets some of their friends, the Chinese, for example, and it upsets an awful lot of other people. So, you know, the United States could actually do exactly what this oil executive is suggesting, walk away in a kind of fashion, let the Iranians claim the win, and the win will eventually turn to dust. So it's a clever policy. True, but doesn't it also give Iran? I mean, it gives Iran time to also develop. It gives Iran time. In stable and peace scenario. Absolutely. Objectively, objectively, it is a good plan for both sides. I mean, the United States stabilizes the situation. It gets itself out of this

situation in the Middle East and the Iranians have a long period of peace ahead where they can develop their economy. Two decade. Two decade period. Exactly. So, you know, that is the, obvious correct route to go down. The trouble is it's not going to happen exactly, because Trump and not just Trump, but many people in Washington are going to see this as a defeat, and they won't accept that. So instead, we are going to be trapped,

continue to be trapped, in this Tsug-Zang situation, where the United States comes up with plans to try to coerce Iran into agreeing to give up the Strait of Hormuz, and we have seen that the Iranians have the means to carry out escalation themselves. The plan could only work if NBS fully committed the weight of Saudi Arabia to it, told the Americans to do what we just said, back off, walk away, leave it to Saudi Arabia,

the Iranians to work things out. Maybe there'd be a toll. Maybe they wouldn't. But again, MBS probably won't want to do that, either. I would imagine, and just to end the video, that if MBS put pressure, influence on the Trump administration and said, we need to walk away from this, just let them put their dollar fee, who cares?

We're building a pipeline here. We have a pipeline going from Iraq as well. Just walk away from this President Trump. MBS then would be removed. Yes, that's the thing. And he knows it. He knows it exactly. I mean, his conflict with the Houthis has failed, and these Saudi princes will see that he led Saudi Arabia into multiple confrontations with Iran, which I am sure many Saudi princes still feel totally irreconciled towards, and that he failed against Iran as well. So this is his problem. He's, in order to preserve, maintain his own position. within Saudi Arabia.

But, you know, to say it simply, if he loses a power struggle in Saudi Arabia, he's in serious trouble, I mean, not only he loses his position as crown prince and potential king, but he could be deposed, he might be forced to go into exile, even worse might happen to him. I mean, we've had coups like that in Saudi Arabia before. In the early 60s, the king was deposed by his brother.

So, you know, this isn't, this wouldn't be. completely new. I would imagine he would anger the neocons as well. He would anger the neocons as well. They may be the ones, the deep state, the neocons may be the ones that go to various other factions in Saudi Arabia and say, okay, it's time for you guys to be done with MBS. Exactly. And of course, you know, he's done on other things.

He built, you know, he's trying to build his great city. Noam, we didn't turn out very well. And all of that. So one can imagine that, you know, within the royal family, amongst the princes, there are probably many doubts about him. And if a deal like the kind we've talked about is done, it could crystallize it. And he probably knows it. And he probably does feel that his position is becoming insecure. Okay. Do you think Trump is going to eventually strike again at Iran? Well, at the moment, I'm sure that's where it's going. I mean, because unless these kind of deals

that we're talking about are made, which requires a political leader of consistency and strength and will, which at the moment we're not seen from Trump. I'm afraid we're going to remain trapped in this on again, off again, confrontation, all of these plans to seize islands, to impose land blockades, to do. try to put pressure on Iran via the Pakistanis and the Turks who presumably also have to be involved in a land blockade. All of that is going to continue on again, off again, all the time through the November midterms, beyond the November midterms. And sooner or later, there's going to be renewed American strikes on Iran, and the Iranians will counter them, but probably

not the kind of all-out war that we've been, look like we might be on the brink. of over the last few days. Which is something Iran does not want that either. Of course not. Of course not. The long war and these on again off against tricks. All right, well then they're like two scorpions and a bottle. I mean, neither of them have a way out.

And they're trapped in this confrontation with each other. I like that. All right, we'll end the video there. Is it me or was Saudi Arabia on a much better path when it was least? leading towards bricks. Remember that? Absolutely. They should have made the decision. It was in Kazan.

They were offered membership of bricks then. They should have taken it. It would have been much better for them. But of course, they didn't. And again, one suspects that there was internal crashes within Saudi Arabia. But it was a major fork in the road and they took the wrong.

They took the wrong. Scorpions in a bottle. All right, we will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on X. We are on Rumble and Telegram. Also go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch. We have a very big summer sale going on.

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