The Duran Podcast - Iran-US talks, real diplomacy or attack trickery

Episode Date: February 4, 2026

Iran-US talks, real diplomacy or attack trickeryThe Duran: Episode 2456

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is happening with Iran. Once again, we have Trump telling the media that there are talks taking place, that he's hopeful that some deal can be reached, and that Iran will accept the U.S. terms. But he is also saying that there could be a conflict, that he's moved the powerful Armada into place. They continue to move more military assets into position. And when he's asked about some sort of an operation into Iran or some sort of a strike into Iran in the next coming days, Trump basically says what he said about Venezuela, really. We'll see. I hope the talks work out, but we'll see.

I'm not going to tell you what I had planned. I'm keeping everything secret. It would be dumb if I were to tell you what I'm going to do. It's exactly the same stuff that he was saying during the whole Venezuela thing. That's where we are. We have gotten some news from the Iranian side of things that they are moving towards some sort of a discussion with the United States on those terms. They are putting out messaging that the diplomacy is moving towards some sort of a negotiation.

That's coming from the Iranian side of things. Where do you see this thing going? He does look as if diplomatic contacts are underway. Anyway, we had a trip by Harmonais' national security advisor, Alarijani, to Moscow. Al-Larijani came back and said that there's a framework for talks with the Americans. So perhaps the Russians are playing some kind of role behind the scenes we don't know about. There's also, as I said, all of these hints from the Iranians, more than just hints, that there are meetings taking place between Iranian and American officials.

there was supposed to have been a series of meetings in Amman last week, which apparently failed because the Iranians could not accept the American demands. And we also know that a lot of people from the Gulf, the various Arab rulers there, have been turning up in Washington. They've been calling the Americans, they've been saying, this isn't the moment for an attack on Iran. The situation is very difficult, very dangerous. And we have reports in the media and the US.

that an attack won't succeed, in overthrowing the government of Iran, that American bases are vulnerable, the Iranians are threatening and all that war. So there's these voices of restraint on the American side. There's these voices of defiance on the Iranian side, and both sides are talking about negotiations and deals. But I think the best way to get, the best way to understand where all this is going is to look at what is actually happening on the ground. And on the ground, it seems as if both sides are gearing up for a war. So the US is still moving assets to the Middle East. It still seems to be sending more and more air defense assets and other sorts of military assets,

which you would expect to see if some kind of a strike would. was being prepared. Whilst the Iranians on their side also seem to be taking steps of their own, they've apparently set up shelters in the metro in Tehran and also provided room for other shelters as well. They are providing coverings to conceal work that has been done on their various facilities and to make it more difficult for the Americans to understand the bomb damage or missile damage if missile strikes do take place. I'm sure lots of other things are taking place as well, which by definition, we don't know about. But all of the information, all of the evidence,

so far suggests, at least to me, that the two sides continue to gear up towards war. I think the Americans are not ready. I think they still have some preparation to do. I suspect there's also attempts being made as there were in Venezuela to find cracks within the Iranian government, people who can be persuaded to cooperate, that kind of thing, to try to rebuild maybe some of the networks that were broken during the protests by the Iranians when they suppressed the protests. So there may be a lot of that going on on the American side. And on the Iranian side, they're very short of time because they delayed for many years getting themselves properly organized and properly organized economically, both in economic and defense terms. But they seem to be doing whatever they possibly can in the time available to them to absorb and protect themselves from this blow and to go on the attack when it comes.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the United States is not ready for a full attack. They're ready for a limited strike, but they need more time to be in a position to deliver the type of strike that allegedly Trump is wanting, which will collapse the regime, is basically what the Wall Street Journal is reporting. I mean, I find that troubling, actually, that reporting. It means that if we don't get a deal in the next week or so, that the Trump White House is going to launch some sort of an attack on Iran, a very powerful attack with the goal of collapsing the regime. I mean, that's basically what the Wall Street Journal is saying. Yes.

He doesn't want limited strikes. Trump doesn't want limited strikes, yeah. He wants a major strike on a much bigger scale than what we saw in June, June of last year. with the objective this time to achieve regime change. The attack in June was an attempt to achieve regime change. It was delegated to the Israelis. The Israelis were supposed to do it. It was the Israelis who were supposed to know where all the Iranian officials were

and who were supposed to kill them. And the Americans were lulling the Iranians into complacency by meeting with the Iranians in Oman. It didn't work. So this time, the Americans are taking over. They're going to have to do this themselves because the Israelis tried and failed, and they're going to try and do it on a much, much bigger scale this time.

Now, what exactly it is that they think they can do, which will collapse the whole regime? And by the way, just to say, the Iranians themselves, when they talk about this, talk about collapsing the regime, regime change, so we should not be embarrassed about using these words. Anyway, what it is that the Americans think that they can do that would collapse the regime? I don't know. I mean, I probably

an enormous attack on the decision-making centers in Tehran, whether that would in itself cause the entire system in Iran to collapse. I can't really say. Peziscan recently had a meeting with the regional governors and arranged to decentralize decision-making. It looks as if the Iranians are preparing for exactly that kind of possibility. We'll just have to wait and see what they do. But just to repeat again, to me, it looks as if this lull that we're seeing at the moment is not because of the diplomacy, which is undoubtedly going on. It is because the Americans need time. And the Americans need time to prepare.

And the Iranians are using that time to prepare as best they can. What was going on in Moscow with the Iranian, I believe, the national, defense or national security advisor or the defense advisor? Yes, yes. Lari Jani, Ali Lari Jani, he is a very, very senior person in Iran. He's been close to Hamanay for many years. He's currently his national security advisor to the extent that there is a single person in charge of this enormously complex defense and security establishment that Iran has. He is that person. Well, certainly he went to Moscow to discuss diplomacy. And of course, he met with Putin, and the Russians have given only a very brief account of Larajani's visit.

I mean, just that he met. But they said that Larry Jani was on a visit to Russia, which is strange use of words. And it did make me wonder whether it meant that Larry Jani has been meeting with other people in Moscow as well. within the military and intelligence world. Now, the Russians are not in a position to intervene militarily, directly on Iran's behalf. I mean, Iran has never asked for it. It has been offered Russian weapons many times. I mean, often Chinese weapons many times. It hasn't accepted them. And by the way, I've read a long explanation from somebody about the nature of the Iranian economic and political system.

And for me, it answered many of the questions, which explained this riddle, but I'm not going to get into that in this program. But what the Russians can do is that they can provide the Iranians with early warning and satellite data and intelligence. And given that an attack is coming, everybody can see it. I suspect that that was what Larry Jani, in part, where. to Moscow to discuss. Of course, if there is going to be a long war, and that is what the Iranians want, they want, they know that there is going to be an attack, they're saying

that if there's going to be an attack, it's not going to end in a couple of days, it will go on for weeks and months, if necessary even years. If there is going to be a long war, then Iran needs to get supplies from outside. It needs to be. to get supplies from China and Russia to keep the economy functioning, to keep the military running, to keep all of those things. So the Iranians do need to sort out their contacts with the Russians and ultimately the Chinese too at this time and possibly, probably that was part of what Larry Johnny went to talk about as well.

Now he wouldn't have been the only person. Well, there are lots of people moving backwards and forwards between Tehran and Moscow at the present time. And one critically important Russian official, who is Shoygu, who is the Putin's national security advisor and former defense minister, he flew off to China. So he's meeting with the Chinese. So you can see there all kinds of things are going on. But to repeat again, all of the... This is going to become important, provided the government survives the initial attack, I reckon it's got about two weeks that it's got to get through.

Two weeks of a very, very intense American attack. If it survives that, if it retains control, if it's able to go back on the attack, beyond those two weeks, then we are indeed looking at a potentially long war. But if, of course, if it collapses over the first couple of days, then all of the contacts between the Iranians and the Russians that are taking place now are going to be redundant. I mean, they're not going to matter. Okay. I imagine we have another week ahead of us, even though Vuchic, the president of Serbia, saying that an attack's going to happen in 48 hours, that's what he claimed. But I would say we probably have another week or so.

But we'll see. I mean, it could evolve. It could change it any time. And of course, we have to be aware that there's also disinformation. I mean, the Americans might be spreading stories through the Wall Street Journal that they need a week. They need more time precisely in order to, again, make the Iranians complacent and carry out the attack. whilst the Iranians aren't ready. So all of that is going on. It's part of war, by the way. We shouldn't be too judgmental about that. What is wrong, in my opinion, is the attack on Iran

altogether, but that's something we've discussed already in many programs. All right. We will end it there. Thedarea. Dotlocos.com. We're on X and Rumble and Telegram. We are also on Substack. So check us out on Substack. The link is in the description box down below and go to Duran Shop. pick up some merch, 26% off everything in the Duran shop. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.